Best Ball Strategy: Underdog Playoffs Strategy and Rankings

Written by

Updated on December 27, 2023 2:22PM EST

The end of the regular season doesn't mean the end of Best Ball Season, at least not at Underdog Fantasy, who recently unveiled their Playoff Best Ball products for the 2023 NFL season. There are leagues available for two-, three-, four- and six-person drafts, but the biggest draws will likely be the Underdog playoff best ball tournaments – the $5 Mitten, the $3 Little Mitten, the $250 Big Mitten, and the $25 big-field Gauntlet.

The game is mostly the same as Underdog's regular season best ball products, but for playoff best ball you would be drafting 10-player teams in a six-team league -- a five-man bench with a starting 1QB/1RB/1WR-TE/1FLEX. Advancing in the tournaments requires a balancing act of both (1) stacking offenses from teams that go deep in the playoffs and (2) posting high enough point totals in the Wildcard and Divisional rounds. In other words, while you want to have a stack from at least one of the eventual Super Bowl teams, your team won't advance from the first week if you go too heavy on teams with first-round byes. You'll need numbers in both the Wildcard Round and the Super Bowl, as well as the two weeks in between. Hedging your bets by building from a variety of rosters might theoretically raise your floor for any of the four weeks, but even if so it's likely that roster will lack the necessary firepower to place especially high in a given week, especially the later ones.

To advance from the first round you need to finish in the top two of the six-team league you draft in, at which point your team advances to a new league against nine other teams that advanced from the Wildcard round. In the third round you'll need to place first to advance to the Super Bowl round. You'll want numbers in the wildcard round, ideally from a stack on a team that advances to at least the divisional round, and you'll likely want another stack on a team that does not project to play against the team of your other, initially advancing stack. That's to say, for example, that if an Eagles stack propels you through the first round, you might not want many of your remaining six or seven spots to go to the Cowboys. Hedging is tempting, but ultimately we're talking a high-risk contest, and drafting to reduce risk is basically impossible beyond the Wildcard round. To advance in this contest requires stacks of offenses that advance in the real playoffs.

As far as roster build goes, there are a wide range of permissible theories, but generally you probably want two quarterbacks (unless you're specifically building a roster on a bet that a Wildcard Round QB will advance to the Super Bowl), 2-4 running backs, 4-7 wide receivers/tight ends. Notice that the WR and TE positions are combined – this probably slightly decreases the utility of tight end relative to their regular-season ADP.

The remainder of this article will look at the current playoff seeding situation and look at the Underdog ADP to map out the current market. There will also be positional player rankings with explanations, as well as brief overall rankings following that. Note: these rankings are very time-sensitive and could change in a hurry depending on how the next weeks of the regular season shake out.

CURRENT SEEDING

AFC

Baltimore (10-3)
Miami (9-4)
Kansas City (8-5)
Jacksonville (8-5)
Cleveland (8-5)
Pittsburgh (7-6)
Indianapolis (7-6)
----------
Houston (7-6)
Denver (7-6)
Cincinnati (7-6)
Buffalo (7-6)

NFC

San Francisco (10-3)*
Dallas (10-3)
Detroit (9-4)
Tampa Bay (6-7)
Philadelphia (10-3)
Minnesota (7-6)
Green Bay (6-7)
------------------------
Rams (6-7)
Seattle (6-7)
Atlanta (6-7)
New Orleans (6-7)

PLAYER RANKINGS

QUARTERBACK

Jalen Hurts, PHI (4.3 ADP)
The Eagles might lose the division to Dallas, but that probably wouldn't affect their playoff odds meaningfully. The extra week could prove major currency if the Eagles still make the Super Bowl.
Brock Purdy, SF (10.5 ADP)
As much as Hurts and the Eagles can make the Super Bowl without the first-round bye, the 49ers are conference favorites for a reason and their sound defeat of Philadelphia was convincing. Purdy and the 49ers won't accumulate points in the Wildcard round but will be coveted anyway because of the likelihood that they're in the Super Bowl.
Lamar Jackson, BAL (11.9 ADP)
Jackson alone makes the Ravens dangerous, but throw in the defense and you have a clear Super Bowl contender, arguably a more convincing one than the Chiefs.
Dak Prescott, DAL (13.9 ADP)
The Cowboys have proven frauds at many points in the past, and they might be the same thing now. On the other hand, it sure seems like Prescott is playing at a level higher than he ever has, and that defense makes Dallas especially dangerous. As much as the 49ers and maybe even the Eagles are favored over Dallas, this is a team that poses a legit Super Bowl threat.
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (17.1 ADP)
The Dolphins will make the playoffs and as long as he has Tyreek Hill then Tagovailoa is a candidate to throw for 400 yards or more in a given game. If the Vic Fangio defense can do some lifting then the Dolphins might have just enough to make a real run.
Patrick Mahomes, KC (9.5 ADP)
It's not meant to be provocative listing Mahomes this low among quarterbacks, and everyone knows he won't stay down for long. He is down right now though, and it's becoming increasingly likely that the Chiefs quite simply have no answers for their offensive struggles this year. The GM Brett Veach built a bad offense, and we're seeing the limits of Mahomes' otherwise superhuman abilities. The Chiefs will always be a Super Bowl threat as long as they have Mahomes, though, even if they are much weaker than past seasons.
Josh Allen, BUF (25.6 ADP)
Clearly we're chasing one-week upside more than playoff-long stability with Allen, but in a two-QB build he could be the perfect Wildcard quarterback who bridges the gap to a Purdy type for the longer haul. The Bills are not assured a playoff spot, but none of the 7-6 AFC teams they're tied with look better than Buffalo.
Trevor Lawrence, JAC (41.4 ADP)
With no Christian Kirk and a horrendous offensive scheme there is only so much under Lawrence's control, but he remains a top talent and the Jaguars defense might be able to carry the Jags to a playoff victory if the offense can't.
Jared Goff, DET (41.5 ADP)
Goff and the Lions have been somewhat exposed recently, and there's no doubt about the limitations between Goff and the Detroit defense. The Detroit offensive line remains elite, though, and Goff still has a lot of help despite his ability to waste it at times anyway.
C.J. Stroud, HOU (58.9 ADP)
Stroud is still the man and the Texans defense is probably underrated, but they have to worry about even making the playoffs at all.
Joe Flacco, CLE (58.2 ADP)
Jordan Love, GB (58.3 ADP)

RUNNING BACK

Christian McCaffrey, SF (1.1 ADP)
Yep. You'll notice that 1.1 there -- there's no debate about who the top overall pick is at the moment.
Tony Pollard, DAL (12.3 ADP)
Pollard was overrated by many going into this year but he remains a good player and the top runner in an offense that is dominating right now.
Raheem Mostert, MIA (23.8 ADP)
Mostert can match the one-game upside of any running back aside from McCaffrey, and there's a case for ranking him above Pollard. The only reason I didn't is because Mostert's workload seems more likely to fluctuate, if only because the Dolphins have another standout runner...
De'Von Achane, MIA (18.7 ADP)
Right or wrong, Achane is perceived as the better big-play threat between him and Mostert, even with Mostert acknowledged as a rare big-play threat himself. I'm listing Achane second despite his higher ADP because I suspect he's still the second in rotation to Mostert, but I could be wrong.
D'Andre Swift, PHI (19.3 ADP)
The Eagles have not run very well in months and it's unclear whether they have the ability or intention to fix that. Swift is still their clear starter, but the recent struggles and Philadelphia's tendency to abandon the run admittedly undermine Swift's fantasy upside. The basic appeal here is a starting running back on a team with a decent shot at making the Super Bowl even after playing in the Wildcard round.
Isiah Pacheco, KC (19.3 ADP)
Just as in the Mahomes case, I might be a little lower on Pacheco than most. The effects of his shoulder injury remain unclear, and the Chiefs offense just isn't living up to its price tag this year.
Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (30.4 ADP)
The Lions have some things to figure out, but their run game isn't one of those things. Gibbs is a good running back and one who could post big numbers in up to three weeks of the playoffs. The Lions aren't getting past the NFC Championship Game, if they even make it that far, but Gibbs could be useful for two weeks.
David Montgomery, DET (34.4 ADP)
See Gibbs.
Travis Etienne, JAC (28.8 ADP)
Great player, but Etienne is dealing with an offensive coordinator who might as well mail his playbook to every opponent the Jaguars face. Even if the Jags advance and log playoff games, Etienne has almost everything working against him all the time because his offense is run by a weak nepotism case.
Keaton Mitchell, BAL (31.7 ADP)
Mitchell is kind of like the Baltimore version of Achane, but since the Ravens have no Tyreek Hill the sledding is always tougher.
James Cook, BUF (36.1 ADP)
Although the Bills aren't guaranteed to make the playoffs, if they do Cook could be one of the higher-scoring running backs of at least the first two rounds.
Gus Edwards, BAL (36.6 ADP)
Jerick McKinnon, KC (37.3 ADP)
Kyren Williams, LAR (54.8 ADP)
See Cook, though with worse indicators across the board.
Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (48.4 ADP)
Rico Dowdle, DAL (51.6 ADP)
Elijah Mitchell, SF (52.9 ADP)
Jordan Mason, SF (54.8 ADP)
Bijan Robinson, ATL (57.3 ADP)
Alvin Kamara, NO (59.0 ADP)
Rachaad White, TB (59.0 ADP)

WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END

CeeDee Lamb, DAL (2.7 ADP)
The Cowboys aren't feared as much as the 49ers or even the Eagles generally, but Lamb is playing at such a high level right now that most drafters still feel compelled to take him second overall. If Dallas were to make the NFC Championship Game then a lot of Lamb rosters might be heading into that round.
Tyreek Hill, MIA (3.4 ADP)
The Dolphins aren't taken as seriously as the Cowboys, thus Hill falling this far out of concerns of a short playoff stint.
Travis Kelce, KC (6.2 ADP)
It would be difficult to criticize anyone for preferring the San Francisco targets over Kelce, especially with how bad the Chiefs offense has been of late, but the AFC is weak overall and the Chiefs could make the Super Bowl even if they look mediocre doing it.
Deebo Samuel, SF (7.5 ADP)
Brandon Aiyuk, SF (7.7 ADP)
I personally have no strong feeling about how to take first, but Samuel and Aiyuk are expected to play in the Super Bowl.
A.J. Brown, PHI (7.6 ADP)
If the Eagles are able to make the Super Bowl then this will prove much too low for Brown.
George Kittle, SF (14.4 ADP)
Stefon Diggs, BUF (22.2 ADP)
Admittedly, this might be a bit risky. But if the Bills do make the playoffs then they could go as far as the Super Bowl given the weak field.
DeVonta Smith, PHI (14.0 ADP)
Rashee Rice, KC (22.8 ADP)
The Chiefs aren't compelled to feed Rice, but if they don't then they will exit the playoffs swiftly.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (21.6 ADP)
Jaylen Waddle, MIA (21.5 ADP)
Zay Flowers, BAL (22.1 ADP)
Odell Beckham, BAL (36.6 ADP)
Dallas Goedert, PHI (29.8 ADP)
Brandin Cooks, DAL (28.1 ADP)
Jake Ferguson, DAL (32.7 ADP)
Calvin Ridley, JAC (35.9 ADP)
Sam LaPorta, DET (37.1 ADP)
Gabe Davis, BUF (44.3 ADP)
Isaiah Likely, BAL (45.0 ADP)
Evan Engram, JAC (43.4 ADP)
Dalton Kincaid, BUF (51.3 ADP)
Amari Cooper, CLE (55.7 ADP)
Jauan Jennings, SF (55.4 ADP)