Best Ball Strategy: Identifying the Best & Worst ADP Values on DraftKings

This article is part of our Best Ball Strategy series.

DraftKings opened best ball contests a few days after the completion of the 2024 NFL Draft, including a massive tournament with a $15 million prize pool and $1.5 million to first place ($20 entry. There have already been more than 1,300 drafts for that tourney and 2,200 for the big $3 contest, providing a more-than-large-enough sample size for meaningful ADP data.

In past years, QBs and RBs tended to go a bit earlier on DraftKings compared to other sites, with WRs then being pushed back. Each individual draft plays out differently, of course, but I can personally testify to being successful on DK by targeting WRs aggressively and taking advantage of ADP discrepancies compared to other sites.

Scoring is identical to DK's DFS product: full PPR, with three-point bonuses at 100 yards rushing/receiving or 300 yards passing. Relative to other sites, the bonuses make top passing QBs a bit more valuable and rushing-dependent QBs somewhat less so. Meanwhile, TDs account for a lower percentage of the fantasy points scored, especially if we're comparing to a half-PPR site like Underdog.

In other words, we'd theoretically expect to see someone like Derrick Henry going earlier on UD than DK.... though given what I've seen in past years that won't necessarily be the case. My next article will look at those ADP differences between sites, but for right now I'm just focused on DraftKings and identifying the best values in each round based on my personal analysis/opinions.

One important thing to note with DK's ADP data is that it also includes results from their three-player and six-player drafts, in which elite guys at the onesie positions (QB/TE) are much more valuable than in normal drafts and often get taken within the Top 20 picks. Sam LaPorta, for example, is at ADP 16.3, with Travis Kelce not far behind at 17.7. This is earlier than they'll typically be picked in 12-man drafts, but there is some effect of the ADP numbers impacting drafters' decisions, so it's nonetheless fairly common to see those TEs taken in the second round (whereas they're usually third-round picks on other sites). 

I'll try not to harp on that kind of thing too much below; just note that it's usually not a great idea to draft top QBs or TEs on DraftKings until at least a handful of picks after their ADP.

Round 1 

Best Value: RB Breece Hall (ADP 7.4)

Hall is the only RB besides Christian McCaffrey who I fully trust to provide high-end RB1 production when healthy. Finishing at RB2 overall the year after an ACL tear is incredibly impressive -- even if he was about 100 points behind RB1 -- and Hall now figures to have much better blocking and QB play in 2024. The Jets went from one of the worst OT groups in the league to one of the best this offseason, adding Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses before drafting Ola Fashanu in the first round.

Worst Value: RB Jahmyr Gibbs (ADP 9.9)

He's one of my favorite real-life players, but Gibbs never topped 15 carries in a game when David Montgomery was available last year, and the receiving impact was much less than expected. That should change in Year 2, but there's also a chance Gibbs loses some of the rushing production after putting up 5.2 YPC and 10 TDs on 182 carries last year. In Round 2, those are acceptable concerns for such a talented player. In Round 1, I'd rather take any of the guys typically picked shortly after Gibbs: A.J. Brown (10.6), Puka Nacua (11.0), Saquon Barkley (12.2), Garrett Wilson (14.4) or Jonathan Taylor (15.1)

Round 2

Best Value: WR Garrett Wilson (ADP 14.4)

Wilson is really only an option from late position, as he'll often go toward the end of Round 1 and will almost never make it past the 15th pick or so. I'll happily take him any time he's available in that 12-15 range, betting that he can maintain his excellent target numbers from the past two seasons while realizing a huge increase in per-target efficiency thanks to Aaron Rodgers. The Jets won't be getting anything like the best version of Rodgers, but even league-average QB play should be enough for Wilson and Hall to blow up.

Worst Value: RB De'Von Achane (ADP 20.9)

This is kind of the same deal as with Gibbs, except that Achane is 10-15 pounds lighter and missed six games his rookie season. We have the same concerns regarding workload upside when the backfield partner (Montgomery/Mostert) is healthy, plus Achane comes with more durability concerns of his own. Gibbs also offers more potential to carry huge loads if Montgomery misses time -- something that happened Weeks 7-8 last year -- whereas Achane would likely cede a bunch of work to Jaylen Wright or Jeff Wilson even if/when Mostert suffers an injury. Achane never topped 61 percent snap share last season, while Gibbs reached that number five times. For my money, Achane is going a full round earlier than he should be.

Round 3 

Best Value: WR Drake London (ADP 31.9)

This is one of the biggest discrepancies between DK and other sites, with London typically going early-to-mid Round 2 on Drafters and Underdog. He's one of the safest bets to take a big step forward this year, having put up strong target rates and per-route numbers in his age-21 and age-22 seasons. London will turn 23 this summer and figures to run far more routes under OC Zac Robinson, with the addition of QB Kirk Cousins boding well for per-target efficiency (at least relative to London's previous QBs).

Worst Value: RB Derrick Henry (ADP 31.0)

The chances of me taking Henry over London, Chris Olave (ADP 32.8) or Mike Evans (34.6) are zero, unless the format is TDs only. In this case we're talking about full PPR, and with a playoff format that puts all the emphasis on Weeks 15-17. Henry has been durable, but the injury rate for RBs is higher in general, and it's common to see guys have great seasons but then not be available for the all-important playoff weeks. Wide receivers are safer picks, and when we're talking about Olave/London vs. a 30-year-old Henry, I'd also argue that the WRs offer better ceilings.

Round 4 

Best Value: WR Jaylen Waddle (ADP 44.7)

This isn't just about WRs going later than they should on DraftKings; I'd also argue that Waddle is a better pick than some of the guys at his position going ahead of him, including Michael Pittman (40.7), Deebo Samuel (41.9) and Cooper Kupp (37.0). Each passing year increases the odds that some of Tyreek Hill's volume shifts toward Waddle, and even if that doesn't happen we've already seen the 25-year-old top 70 yards per game in both seasons he's played alongside Reek.

Worst Value: RB James Cook (ADP 44.8)

Cook is one of my least favorite picks on pretty much every site, probably because he's the only earlyish draft pick who I don't consider to be a good player in real life. He's adequate, to be sure, and it's possible for adequate RBs to put up big numbers in the right situation. Buffalo, however, isn't that situation, with QB Josh Allen annually dominating goal-line carries and the interior O-line potentially a problem after C Mitch Morse left for Jacksonville. While Cook might prove to be a solid RB2, there's not really a scenario in which he drastically outperforms a fourth-round ADP (or last year's production).

Round 5-6 

Best Value: WR Amari Cooper (ADP 65.2)

Cooper had a career-high 1,250 yards last year despite missing the final two games, with his 4-109-1 line in Week 15 and 11-265-2 showing Week 16 making him one of the keys to advancing to the final round of best ball tournaments (though he didn't help once you got there). Recency bias apparently holds no power here, but neither does sound logic. Cooper is exactly the type of player you want to target in these playoff-centric formats, as he's capable of putting up massive numbers in any given week, has zero risk of losing his starting job and boasts a strong track record of availability (he's played 140 of a possible 147 regular-season games). 

Worst Value: RB Raheem Mostert (ADP 58.2)

This is a good example of why I prefer DraftKings to other best ball sites. The competition is simply softer, and we often see weird stuff like Raheem Mostert going three rounds earlier than on every other site. If you want to draft him, deposit some money on another platform and take him in Round 8 rather than using a fifth/sixth-round pick on DK.

Rounds 7-8 

Best Value: WR Terry McLaurin (ADP 80.2)

The logic here is similar to the argument for Cooper. We're pretty confident McLaurin won't be any better than a WR3 or maybe a passable WR2 in terms of full-season production, but he offers an excellent weekly ceiling and could thus be one of the keys to advancing in the playoffs. There's also almost no chance he hurts you unless he misses a lot of time with an injury -- something he's avoided to this point in his career. I understand making ceiling picks like Xavier Worthy or Zamir White over Cooper/McLaurin in a total points format (like on Drafters) where winning requires a dominant team start to finish; I don't understand it on DraftKings where you just need to be pretty good Weeks 1-14 and then dominant for a three-week stretch.

Worst Value: QB Tua Tagovailoa (ADP 77.0)

Tagovailoa's real-life success hasn't really translated to the fantasy game, as he plays in a balanced offense and offers next to nothing on the ground (124 yards, zero TDs in two years under coach Mike McDaniel). The only way I'd consider Tagovailoa before the 90th pick or so is if I've already drafted BOTH of Waddle and Tyreek Hill... which is something I'll only do if Waddle is available late Round 4. Reek teams that reach for Waddle at the beginning of Round 3 will then be obliged to make a second reach for Tua. The triple-stack might look pretty, but the rest of your roster won't, and it'll be a common combination anyway.

Rounds 9-11 

Best Value: QB Matthew Stafford (ADP 126.7)

Stafford rebounded from a disappointing 2022 along with the rest of the Rams, but it didn't result in many TD passes (24) because the team had a league-high 43 field-goal attempts plus the fifth-most rushing touchdowns from running backs (17). The scoring load should shift back in Stafford's direction this year, and he'll have plenty of help around him thanks to an excellent offensive line and WRs Puka Nacu and Cooper Kupp. The Kupp-Stafford stack is one of my favorites.

Worst Value: WR Curtis Samuel (ADP 114.2)

Samuel has four 100-yard receiving games in his career and four instances of multiple TDs (never accomplishing both feats in the same contest). Moving from Washington to Buffalo might help him, but he still figures to mostly see short passes, competing with WR Khalil Shakir, RB James Cook and TEs Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox for those looks. There's even some chance of Samuel only being the third receiver / slot specialist, and in an offense that figures to use a lot of looks with multiple TEs and/or a sixth offensive lineman.

Rounds 12-14 

Best Value: RB Antonio Gibson (ADP 162.9)

Gibson is being drafted at about the same time the WR pool dries up, in the same range as guys like Kendre Miller (157.2) and Tyler Allgeier (165.1) who are probably pure handcuffs. That's not to say Allgeier is a bad pick, but Gibson's receiving ability gives him a better chance at fantasy value that doesn't depend on an injury ahead of him. Plus, Gibson is one of the few passing-down backs who might elevate to a workhorse role if the starter ahead of him misses time, as he weighs 220 pounds and once took 258 carries in a season (2021).

Worst Value: RB J.K. Dobbins (ADP 138.3)

I really hope Dobbins can be the first RB since... ever?... to have a productive fantasy season the year after an Achilles' tear. But I won't be the one putting any money on it, even if I appreciate Dobbins as a former Raven and fellow Mexico enthusiast. It'd be smarter to draft Gus Edwards (ADP 114.8) a couple rounds earlier or Kimani Vidal (192.1) much later if you want a piece of the Chargers backfield. 

Round 15-17 

Best Value: WR Demario Douglas (ADP 192.9)

I understand the inclination to attribute Douglas' involvement last season to New England's lack of alternatives. It's not entirely untrue, but that doesn't mean we should ignore the positive indicators from when he played, including a 22.1 percent target rate (79 on 357 routes) and solid efficiency stats relative to the overall miserable nature of the Patriots' passing game (62.0 percent catch rate, 7.1 YPT). FWIW, I'm a big fan of QB Drake Maye and highly skeptical of WR Ja'Lynn Polk (at least as an early Round 2 pick; Polk would've been a fine selection a round or two later).

Worst Value: RB Keaton Mitchell (ADP 178.1)

As much as I hate to keep beating up on guys who sacrificed a leg for my favorite team last year, Mitchell seems like a waste of a pick with a treacherous path back to fantasy relevance. First, he'll need to make it back on the field after suffering an ACL tear and additional ligament damage in mid-December. After that, he'll need a Derrick Henry injury to open up carries in the Baltimore backfield. If both those things happen, the 191-pound RB will find himself in some kind of timeshare with Justice Hill, Rasheen Ali or whoever else is hanging around the roster. Even at that point, Mitchell probably won't be valuable unless he's fully recovered his pre-injury speed and explosiveness. 

One of the dumbest things people do in best ball drafts is "take shots" in the late rounds on seemingly exciting/unknown RBs that might not even be on a roster, when they could instead draft someone like Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ADP 224.9) or Will Shipley (210.7) who is all but locked in for a spot on a team and perhaps just one injury away from fantasy-RB2 status. A lot of people don't really put much thought into the difference between two low-probability outcomes, essentially wasting their last few picks to chase imaginary ceilings based on name recognition or certain traits (speed, size, etc.). Don't be those people!

Round 18-20 

Best Value: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ADP 224.9)

The Chiefs have re-signed Edwards-Helaire but not Jerick McKinnon, and they didn't select any RBs in the 2024 NFL Draft. Things certainly could change between now and September, but from where I'm sitting it looks like CEH is just an Isiah Pacheco injury away from considerable fantasy value. A lot of the RBs with similar ADPs will be competing for No. 3 jobs this summer.

Worst Value: WR Brenden Rice (ADP 225.9)

You're free to use your final pick on a seventh-round-rookie WR because his dad is an NFL legend. Heck, you might even unearth the next Puka Nacua. Just let me know when you're signing up for drafts so I can jump in there with you :)