Beating the Book: ATS Picks, Score Predictions for Every NFL Week 2 Game

Welcome to the Week 2 edition of Beating the Book. 

For a number of reasons, Week 1 won't go down in the history books, as we emerged with a pedestrian 6-9-1 mark against the spread. The Jets falling flat on Monday Night Football felt like a fitting end to a week in which we struggled to find the correct underdogs. When the dust settled, favorites finished 9-6-1 ATS and went 13-3 SU for the week. Cincinnati, Cleveland and Atlanta were the only favorites to lose SU.

The Packers let the cover slip against Philly, the Rams couldn't finish the job in Detroit and, worst of all, the Titans blew one of the most statistically unlikely covers in recent NFL history.

On top of that, our best bet (Seattle -6.0) ended in a push. But maybe we shouldn't complain about that considering Seattle got off to an all-time disastrous start against Denver, which included a pick, a safety, another safety and a muffed punt (which set Denver up at the Seattle 9-yard-line) all before halftime.

Anyway. It's a long season, and we'll now focus our attention on what promises to be an exciting Week 2 slate. Unlike Week 1, we have a decent number of lopsided matchups with seven games currently carrying a spread of at least 5.5 points. We also have six road favorites – compared to just two in Week 1 – headlined by the Chargers (-6.5 at CAR), 49ers (-5.0 at MIN) and Jets (-3.5 at TEN).

You can find my thoughts on all those games, as well as the entire Week 1 slate, below. As will be the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 1:

• Cardinals +6.5 at Bills: While Arizona couldn't hang out for a straight-up win, the Cardinals owned the first half and held their own against the best one-man show in the NFL. 
• Saints -4.0 vs. Panthers: I projected the final score to be 20-14 so this is by no means deserving of a victory lap, but Carolina was a popular underdog play in Week 1 and we were able to remind ourselves that Bryce Young and the Panthers are (very) bad until proven otherwise.

Worst calls of Week 1:

• Browns -2.5 vs. Cowboys: Even at home with a strong defense, never trust Deshaun Watson. After a field goal on their first drive, the Browns put up five three-and-outs and a pick to end the first half. This was one of those picks we knew was dead by the second quarter.
• Falcons -3.0 vs. Steelers: We knew what we were up against. A classic Mike Tomlin spot on the road. Atlanta looked awful on offense for most of the day and we got what we deserved. 

Last week: 6-9-1 ATS; 12-4 SU; best bet PUSHED

On the season: 6-9-1 ATS; 12-4 SU; 0-0-1 best bets

Thursday Night Football

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Spread: Miami -2.5

Total: 48.5

Really tough game between 1-0 teams to begin the week on TNF. Miami was lucky to escape with a victory over Jacksonville, which completely imploded and gave that game away in the second half.

Meanwhile, the Bills fell into an early hole against Arizona but were able to rally back against one of the NFL's worst defenses thanks to a monster performance from Josh Allen. The superstar QB has traditionally owned the Dolphins, going 10-1 SU against Miami since the start of the 2019 season. In 12 career regular-season matchups, Allen has thrown for over 280 yards per game while putting up 33 touchdowns to just seven picks. 

Miami's defense looked vulnerable early on against the Jags but was able to buckle down in the second half, holding Trevor Lawrence to just 3-of-7 passing for 37 yards with two huge fourth-quarter sacks after halftime.

On balance, this feels like a complete toss-up. Neither team looked elite in Week 1. Miami will have its hands full with Allen – who's dealing with a hand injury – and James Cook, but it was tough to get a read on the viability of the Bills' passing game last week against such a poor defense. On the other side, Miami ripped off its usual big plays to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but the running game was woefully ineffective for most of Week 1. Miami will be without Raheem Mostert, while De'Von Achane is considered a "game-time decision," per Mike McDaniel.

Ultimately, we'll side with McDaniel to get that ground game tuned up and avoid taking his first loss in the month of September as the Dolphins' head coach. Bills can cover the 2.5, however.

The pick: Dolphins 24 – Bills 23

Sunday Early Slate

Las Vegas Raiders at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Ravens -9.0

Total: 41.5

This is not the game you want to see on the schedule if you're the Raiders. Vegas had a winnable spot in Week 1 in a pseudo-home-game at the Chargers but couldn't keep pace in the second half after taking a 7-6 lead into the locker room. Gardner Minshew did throw a pick, but he looked passable, completing 25 of 33 attempts for 257 yards, while rookie Brock Bowers (6 for 58) already looks like a starting-caliber fantasy tight end.

The Raiders are going to need Minshew to play a clean game to have any chance of hanging with a Ravens team that will be looking forward to taking out its Chiefs-related frustrations on a much friendlier opponent. This should be a smash spot for Baltimore, though the Ravens will need more than a herculean effort from Lamar Jackson, who nearly single-handedly dragged them to a win in Week 1.

On one hand, it was incredibly fun to see Jackson scampering around against a great defense. On the other, it did feel like Baltimore was almost too reliant on Jackson making plays with his legs. Lamar playing at a superhuman level tends to be a good bet, but Baltimore will need to get Derrick Henry going in addition to unlocking some semblance of a downfield passing game.

I do expect the Raiders' pass rush to show up and give Baltimore problems, but with this number staying under 10.0 and Baltimore having a big rest advantage, it's hard to stay away from the Ravens at home.

The pick: Ravens 28 – Raiders 14

Los Angeles Chargers at Carolina Panthers

Spread: Chargers -6.5

Total: 38.5

Coming off of a win over Vegas in Week 1, the Chargers are the biggest road favorite of the week. Part of that is LA doing what it needed to do in Week 1 in close to the exact fashion we expected. The other part is Carolina looking like it took exactly zero steps forward in a 47-10 shellacking – our first official shellacking of the season – at New Orleans. The Panthers were a trendy dog pick in Week 1 and truly could not have looked worse in all phases of the game.

We want to be careful not to overreact to a worst-case-scenario faceplant from Carolina, but we now have a 17-game sample of the Panthers looking completely toothless with Bryce Young under center. Realistically, Carolina can't look any worse in Week 2, but on the Chargers' side, the recipe for a win remains the same. Run the ball, pick your spots with Justin Herbert and rely on the opposing quarterback to make enough mistakes to inevitably hand you the game.

For the second straight week, the Chargers have two definitive advantages at quarterback and head coach. We'll ride those to a win and cover for the Chargers to move to 2-0 under Jim Harbaugh. The loss of Derrick Brown – one of maybe three players who matter on that Carolina defense – also looms large this week.

The pick: Chargers 21 – Panthers 13

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Cowboys -6.5

Total: 45.5

I could not have been more wrong about the Cowboys in Week 1. Rust for CeeDee Lamb, a shallow group of pass-catchers and a shaky running back room were the concerns, and it turns out none of those mattered against a Browns offense that could not move the ball for the duration of the competitive period of the game. The absences of Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin certainly mattered, but even if they were out there, I'm not sure the Browns would've been able to keep pace.

Much like we don't want to overreact to Carolina's Week 1 implosion, we don't want to overreact to the Saints being gifted an ideal Week 1 matchup. With that said, the Saints' offense already looks like a different animal this season, and it's encouraging that they were able to pile up 47 points without Chris Olave doing much of anything.

I mean, look at this. Rashid Shaheed in the backfield, Jawun Johnson in motion before his touchdown catch. We love to see some much-needed creativity in this offense.

There's likely to be a decent amount of public sentiment behind both sides here coming out of Week 1. What does worry me for the Cowboys is the possible loss of Jake Ferguson, which makes a narrow passing tree even narrower. On the other side, New Orleans will have its hands full with Lamb, Micah Parsons and a ferocious Dallas pass rush that racked up six sacks on Deshaun Watson. 

I like the Cowboys to win this game at home. I don't think it's a blowout, and at 6.5, the Saints can squeak out a cover by the hook.

The pick: Cowboys 27 – Saints 21

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions

Spread: Lions -7.0

Total: 51.0

I was hoping we'd get this line under 7.0, in which case I'd be interested in the Bucs' side in a rematch of last year's Divisional Round matchup. But sitting right at the key number, it's more of a pass for me right now.

Given how Tampa Bay looked in Week 1, 7.0 may seem like too much, but keep in mind that Tampa lost key starting defensive backs (Antoine Winfield and Bryce Hall), while two more (Zyon McCollum and Josh Hayes) are also at risk of missing Week 2.

Secondary injuries aside, the Bucs should be much better-positioned than the Rams to battle the Lions in the trenches. Los Angeles earned by far the worst pass blocking grade at PFF in Week 1, and if you watched that game on Sunday night, the grade matches up with the eye test.

The Lions' defense will have its hands full with the Bucs' passing game, but I don't expect Tampa Bay to get much of anything going on the ground. Baker Mayfield was spectacular in Week 1, but the Commanders will likely be one of the league's friendliest matchups this season.

While Detroit will need to get more out of its passing game – specifically, Amon-Ra St. Brown – the Lions should be able to take advantage of the Bucs' banged-up secondary. I like the Lions to ride home field advantage to a 2-0 start and a narrow cover. Again, this is more of a pass for me at 7.0, but lord knows there are no passes when it comes to Beating the Book.

The pick: Lions 28 – Buccaneers 20

Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers

Spread: Colts -2.5

Total: 41.0

This game really comes down to two factors:

• Can Malik Willis do a reasonable Justin Fields impression?
• Can the Packers' defense hold the Colts under 20 points?

While Green Bay appears to be leaving the door cracked open juuust a bit for Jordan Love to potentially play, I would be shocked if it's not Willis under center in Week 2.

That's very, very bad news for Green Bay. Willis has been on the roster for less than three weeks, coming over via trade after the preseason concluded. Willis carried some intrigue after lighting it up at Liberty, but in the few glimpses we've seen of him at the NFL level, he hasn't looked like nearly the dynamic player he was in college. Obviously, the Packers will need to scheme around Willis' limitations and try to win a close, low-scoring game at home

To me, the blueprint to even hanging around in this game is similar to what the Steelers did to Atlanta a week ago. Generate pressure, force at least two turnovers and pile up field goal after field goal.

On the Colts' side, Anthony Richardson is certainly capable of making mistakes. But he's also capable of exploiting the Packers' secondary – which looked shaky at best in Week 1 – with throws like this.

With that said, I do think the Colts may be a bit overvalued based on last week's narrow loss in Houston. Richardson completed only nine passes. Relying on multiple 50-yard completions simply isn't sustainable week-to-week. Houston ran 76 plays, compared to 43 for Indy, and controlled the ball for two-thirds of the game. Jonathan Taylor gained only 48 yards on 16 carries.

The Colts are more vulnerable than they appear, but if it is, indeed, Willis at quarterback, I simply don't see Green Bay having enough scoring upside to win this game.

The pick: Colts 20 – Packers 16

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Jaguars -3.0

Total: 41.5

What do we have here? Could it be the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week? I think it could. 

This is a classic matchup between two teams whose respective fan bases hate-watch them each week. Jacksonville picked up where it left off last season, blowing an incredibly winnable game in Miami with a costly fumble and horrific play-calling in the second half. We still don't even know who's calling the plays in Jacksonville. What we do know is the Jags are still the Jags, and they've dropped six of their last seven games SU dating back to last season.

If we're searching for positives, the Jags did at least play one half of competent football. And they were consistently able to slow down the high-powered Dolphins running game. De'Von Achane was held to 24 yards on 10 carries, while Jacksonville forced eight negative plays, including three sacks of Tua Tagovailoa. Hang the damn banner.

For the Browns, there were virtually no positives to take away from Week 1. They got jumped early by a top-heavy Cowboys offense, were completely unable to generate chunk plays and never threatened to climb back into the game. While the Browns' offensive line struggled without Wills and Conklin, Deshaun Watson did absolutely nothing to help himself in what devolved into one of the worst passing games in recent history.

Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen are a formidable pass-rushing duo, but Watson should find it easier to (attempt to) work the ball downfield against Jacksonville – especially if at least one of the starting tackles returns. If the Browns can get even slightly-below-average play out of Watson, this is a very winnable game against one of the worst-coached teams in the NFL.

In good faith, we can't trust Watson to win this game. But the Browns should be able to get pressure on Trevor Lawrence and make this an uncomfortable spot. I want more clarity on the Browns' offensive line before locking anything in, but given what we know right now, I'll take the Jags to pull off a narrow cover.

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but the ATS record for quarterbacks who have the entire internet scrambling to figure out if a team is able to void their contract can't be great.

The pick: Jaguars 21 – Browns 17

San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings

Spread: 49ers -5.0

Total: 46.0

San Francisco needed a couple drives to warm up, but once it settled in against the Jets, the game turned into a rout, even without the services of Christian McCaffrey. There's a better-than-decent chance CMC will be held out of this game, as well, but if the Niners can effortlessly put up 32 points on the Jets, they should be just fine with Jordan Mason against Minnesota. A less-rusty Brandon Aiyuk should also help fuel the Niners' star-studded group of skill players. 

The Vikings do have the rest and home field advantages, but we're not going to overthink this one. Minnesota hangs around and makes it interesting, but San Francisco wins and covers. 

The pick: 49ers 28 – Vikings 21

Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots

Spread: Seahawks -3.5

Total: 37.5

Sneaky tough game here that I did not think would be tough. As we know, I was big on the Seahawks last week, and while it didn't completely blow up in our faces, Seattle did its best to play as badly as possible in an ideal Week 1 matchup. Against virtually any other team (except Carolina and the Giants), Seattle almost certainly fails to push and probably loses outright.

But, hey, that's part of the reason we were so in on the Seahawks in this particular matchup. They threw away four possessions in the first half, gifted a terrible offense 10 free points, and still led by double-digits by the end of the third quarter. Even so, Seattle's offensive line is a MAJOR (all caps!) issue – especially if George Fant, who exited early on Sunday – remains out this week.

On the Pats' side, it feels like we missed an obvious opportunity in Week 1. Granted, our picks were in on Wednesday when there was little to no concern over Tee Higgins' status, but we should've seen a third straight Week 1 faceplant coming for Cincinnati. New England game-managed perfectly on offense and caught a couple of breaks on key fumbles by Cincy – one at the goal line and one on a punt that set the Pats up in easy field goal range.

All of this leads us to an interesting predicament in Week 2. Are the Patriots better than we thought? Or did they catch the Bengals at the perfect time?

I will say this: I'm not backing off of my belief in Seattle after one week. For the most part, I'm willing to flush Week 1 as just a weird game littered with huge first-half mistakes that should've cost the Seahawks more than they did.

I like Seattle to avoid those same mistakes – has a team ever taken multiple safeties in back-to-back weeks? Has it ever even happened twice in a season? – and win this game on the road. But my concerns over the Seahawks' offensive line are still there, and with Kenneth Walker (abdomen) banged up, the door is open for New England to hang around. It's also a long, cross-country trip for Seattle, which has struggled in these 10AM PT starts over the last few years.

Note: According to Stathead, no team has ever taken multiple safeties twice in a season. In 2003, three teams took multiple safeties in a game, including two (Atlanta and Arizona) in the same week. The only franchises to have more than one multi-safety game in their entire history? Seattle, Denver and Arizona. There we have it.

The pick: Seahawks 20 – Patriots 14

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans

Spread: Jets -3.5

Total: 40.5

In the time that it's taken me to write this article, the number has fallen from Jets -4.5 down to 3.5. That's a significant movement without major injury news. Perhaps it's representative of the limitations we saw from the Jets' offense in Week 1. While Aaron Rodgers made some wow throws and Garrett Wilson feasted early on, this may be the most top-heavy offense in the league. Prior to giving way to Tyrod Taylor in the fourth quarter, Aaron Rodgers completed 13 passes – all of which went to Wilson, Allen Lazard and Breece Hall.

The Jets should look better against a non-Niners defense, but the lack of trustworthy pass-catchers will be an issue. Mike Williams upping his snap count should help, but anything the Jets get from him early on should be viewed as a bonus.

We've already belabored what the Titans did to us in Week 1. Will Levis literally flicked the game away with what will likely be the worst pick-six of the season. But Tennessee deserves credit for building a lead early on and showing up defensively against what many thought would be an explosive Bears offense right away.

The Titans are going to have to live with the week-to-week Levis volatility. That's not going anywhere. The question is whether the defense can consistently play like it did in Week 1. This time around, the Titans don't have the benefit of facing a rookie QB in his first career start.

I don't love this one, but we'll take the Jets to grind out a this has been much harder than we thought it would be win on the road.

The pick: Jets 20 – Titans 16

New York Giants at Washington Commanders

Spread: Commanders -1.5

Total: 44.0

The Giants should be thanking the Panthers for their Week 1 performance to take at least some of the heat off of Brian Daboll and Daniel Jones. I mean, our expectations for the Giants were low, but my goodness.

We move on to Week 2, where the Giants find themselves with another winnable game as Jayden Daniels makes a second road start to begin his career. For the most part, Daniels looked the part in Week 1, rushing for 88 yards on 16 carries and leading three touchdown drives on three red zone opportunities. Most importantly, Daniels avoided any killer mistakes, though Washington operated with an ultra-conservative gameplan that included very few downfield looks. Of Daniels' 17 completions on the day, 10 went to Austin Ekeler, Brian Robinson and Zach Ertz.

Sam Darnold torched the Giants' secondary last week, and while Daniels won't be able to do the same, the threat of Daniels on the ground is a new variable to account for. Like most teams, New York is not built to come from behind, as clearly evidenced last week. But if the Giants can keep Daniels in check, this should be a close game that's decided late. 

This is a total toss-up, but we'll side with the home team.

The pick: Commanders 19 – Giants 16

Sunday Afternoon Slate

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Cardinals -1.0

Total: 48.5

On to the afternoon slate, which begins with a fascinating NFC West matchup and the second-highest total of the week, behind only Bucs-Lions.

Arizona comes in off of an impressive showing on the road in Buffalo – a game it covered but easily could have won straight up. In the first half, the Cards put together two 13-play touchdown drives and a 10-play field-goal drive but were mostly bottled up in the second half with their only touchdown coming on a DeeJay Dallas kickoff return. It was a strangely quiet debut for Marvin Harrison Jr., who dropped his first target and was a complete non-factor for most of the afternoon. We'll see if he can get it going against a Rams secondary that put the clamps on Amon-Ra St. Brown but gave up a few chunk plays to Jameson Williams.

For the Rams, this game comes down to a few things. For one, can the offensive line be even remotely passable? It was so bad – against a good Detroit front, to be fair – in Week 1 that it completely changed the Rams' approach and essentially limited Matthew Stafford to quick shots. The fact that Stafford dropped back 50-plus times and only took two sacks is a minor miracle.

Second, how do the Rams replace Puka Nacua, who was placed on IR on Monday? The Stafford-Cooper Kupp connection alone is plenty lethal, but the Rams will need at least one of Tyler Johnson or Demarcus Robinson to step into a larger role.

With the Rams' limitations and injuries, I fully expect this to be another game the Cardinals have a chance to win late. This feels like a toss-up and another uncomfortable offensive game for the Rams. But Sean McVay's dominance over Arizona – 12-2-1 ATS vs the Cardinals – since taking over in LA looms large. Rams by a field goal to avoid falling to 0-2 before hosting the Niners in Week 3.

The pick: Rams 27 – Cardinals 24

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -5.0

Total: 47.5

This time last week, the look-ahead on this game was Chiefs -3.5. It's now 5.0 at DraftKings and sitting at 5.5 at some other books. The reasons for that move are fairly obvious. While the Chiefs didn't play a perfect game in Week 1, the offense looked significantly more explosive than last season, thanks in large part to Xavier Worthy. Plus, the defense held up well against Baltimore, essentially turning the Ravens' offense into a one-man show. Kansas City could get another weapon back this week in Hollywood Brown, as well.

For its part, Cincinnati didn't do anything to generate much pushback on the line movement. While the absence of Tee Higgins was a late-week surprise, the Bengals came out flat at home against one of the least-talented teams in the league, and it never really felt like they were threatening to win the game, right down to an ultra-depressing final drive.

Still, this feels like a dangerous spot to go too big on the Chiefs. Joe Burrow is 3-1 SU against the Chiefs, with all three wins coming as a dog. And slow starts are nothing new for Cincinnati. For as bad as Burrow can look in any given week, he's equally capable of dicing up a defense the next.

Some notable trends, via The Action Network:

• Joe Burrow is 8-2 ATS following a SU loss in which the Bengals scored fewer than 20 points
• Burrow is 1-8 SU in Weeks 1 and 2 in his career
• Kansas City has won seven straight games ATS
• Patrick Mahomes is 38-42-2 ATS as a favorite of more than 3.0 points

Long story short, a lot of conflicting trends. This early in the season, it's more of a "feel" game, which I don't love. If you're backing the Bengals, it's essentially a bet on Cincy's history against the Chiefs and nothing to do with last week's performance against New England.

Full disclosure, I'll wait to lock anything in until we have a firm update on Tee Higgins. If he's in and at full capacity, this is a game the Bengals can cover. But even in that scenario, we're going to need to see a massive week-over-week leap from the Bengals in all phases. Either way, I don't see Cincinnati winning this game outright, especially with a defined rest advantage for Kansas City. 

The pick: Chiefs 26 – Bengals 20

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

Spread: Steelers -2.5

Total: 36.5

We'll keep this one brief. Justin Fields and the Steelers executed their plan to perfection in Week 1 against Atlanta: Kept things simple, mixed in a few well-placed deep shots to George Pickens, pressured Kirk Cousins and allowed Atlanta to throw the game away. If that worked against the Falcons, it should absolutely travel to Denver against Bo Nix.

While Nix did lead a semi-impressive touchdown drive late in the fourth quarter last week, he remains a very limited passer who got away with more than a few turnover-worthy throws. Had Seattle not played an F- first half, it would've been a much more lopsided result.

I'm far from sold on this style of play working for the Steelers against actual good teams, but that's not what the Broncos are. Give me Pittsburgh to get after Nix, pile up field goals and grind out another ugly-but-effective win on the road. I also lean U36.5 on the total.

The pick: Steelers 18 – Broncos 14

Sunday Night Football

Chicago Bears at Houston Texans

Spread: Texans -6.0

Total: 45.5

The look-ahead on this game was Texans -3.5, so we've seen a huge leap after the Bears generated 148 yards of total offense and went 2-of-13 on third downs against Tennessee.

The Texans gave up a few huge passing plays to keep Indy in the game last week, but Houston dominated possession, scored touchdowns on all three of its red zone opportunities, sacked Anthony Richardson twice and bottled up Jonathan Taylor.

If the Bears can pressure C.J. Stroud and force a mistake or two – Stroud had at least one pick dropped in Week 1 – they could hang around, but eventually they're going to need to score with Houston, and it's tough to envision that happening – particularly with Keenan Allen banged up and Rome Odunze "week to week" with a knee injury.

Good note from Scott Seidenberg, by the way, since I can't let go of the Bears' ridiculous cover last week: Entering Week 1, teams trailing by at least 14 points at halftime that finish the game without an offensive touchdown were 2-306 SU since 2000. 2 and 306. Just had to get that last one in there. We will never speak of this again.

The pick: Texans 27 – Bears 17

Monday Night Football

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Eagles -6.5

Total: 47.0

Very dangerous spot for the Falcons, who get the Chiefs next week and could very well start the season 0-3. We don't want to get ahead of ourselves, but that's not exactly what they had in mind. Week 1 was a complete disaster for Atlanta. There's no other way to put it. The new-look, high-powered Falcons looked very much like the old-look, low-powered Falcons under Desmond Ridder and Aruthur Smith. And to make matters worse, Smith was standing on the other sideline taking it all in.

It's easy to pile on Kirk Cousins, who tossed two picks and had a sack-fumble erased by a dubious offsides call. He was not the difference-maker Atlanta needed, but the Steelers' pass rush never allowed him to settle in. None of Cousins' 26 pass attempts went for more than 20 air yards, and the Falcons finished with just one (1) play of more than 15 yards on the day.

To keep pace with the Eagles, we'll need to see an immediate, major step forward from Cousins and some more creativity on Atlanta's part – that is, if Cousins is physically able. The Falcons operated almost exclusively out of pistol and shotgun in Week 1 and used play action on exactly zero plays.

Not much to say on the Eagles' side. Despite three turnovers, Philly survived a strange, back-and-forth game in Sao Paolo and finally has something to build on after last season's collapse. The addition of Saquon Barkley looks like an early hit, but Green Bay's defense in Game 1 with a rookie NFL coordinator may have been an easy target.

Philly will be the popular side, but for good reason, in my mind. I do worry about the Eagles' penchant for giving up explosive plays, but I'm not sure Atlanta is really capable of generating too many of those right now. We'll take the Eagles to roll to 2-0 and win their actual home opener.

The pick: Eagles 24 – Falcons 16