2024 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates: The Year 3 Leap Lives On

This article is part of our NFL Reactions series.

In my early days playing fantasy football the conventional wisdom was that young players needed time to develop and even the extremely talented ones often wouldn't break out until their third or fourth seasons. There were also instant stars, of course, but it wasn't as common as it is nowadays, and for wide receivers in particular there was a lot of discourse about Year 3 breakouts.

The turning point as far as conventional wisdom is concerned probably came in 2014, when six rookie WRs finished top 32 at the position in PPR scoring, including Odell Beckham at No. 7 and Mike Evans at No. 13. The same WR class had a couple prominent Year 2 breakouts (Brandin Cooks, Allen Robinson) as well as a Year 3 whopper (Davante Adams), but the glut of rookie production ultimately proved to be more of a harbinger than a fluke if we look at how things have played out over 10 subsequent seasons.

We now inhabit a world in which standout production tends to happen early in a player's career or never, leading many to quickly discard talented prospects after one or two disappointing seasons. It's an approach that will be right more often than not, but there's an awful lot to gain from identifying potential exceptions, as Nico Collins showed us last season.

Below you'll find my survey of the third-year pros most likely to break out this season, featuring some obvious players that have already put up pretty good numbers (but not great ones) and then others with later ADPs that might be classified as longshots. Much like my previous breakout articles, this isn't intended to be a 'Draft These Guys' list but rather a broad survey of the candidates within a certain category (in this case: third-year pros). I may even list players that I consider overpriced at their current ADP, which will be noted below each write-up where I give my personal opinion on whether fantasy drafters are over/underestimating the probability (or extent) of a breakout.

A lot of the candidates qualify for more than one of the four categories I've divided players into for this series of articles, and in those cases the player will be listed based on the factor I consider most important. You won't see Drake London in this article because I already wrote about him in the article on potential breakouts stemming from scheme/coaching changes. That's not to say he's a finished product and done improving, but in my estimation the more important factor is his improved team context, i.e., he probably would've made the leap last season if he'd been saddled with Kirk Cousins and Zac Robinson instead of Desmond Ridder and Arthur Smith.

The other two breakout-candidate articles focused on second-year pros (e.g. Dalton Kincaid, Chase Brown,  DeMario Douglas) and then players that have been held back by injuries more so than anything else (e.g. Anthony Richardson, Javonte Williams, Christian Watson). My hope is that each of the four articles will give RW readers some new things to think about and stew over before coming up with their own breakout lists for draft season.

The Candidates

• RB Isiah Pacheco

Pacheco already has two useful fantasy seasons to his name, including last year when he finished 15th among RBs in PPR points and 14th in points per game (15.3). He's capable of much more, having answered the biggest doubt about him with 44 receptions on 49 targets last season (56-of-61 including playoffs). While he'll never be Alvin Kamara or anything of that sort, Pacheco proved that his hands and blocking are at least at a level where he doesn't need to be taken off the field in passing situations.

The Chiefs seemed to agree by the end of last year, giving Pacheco at least 70 percent of snaps in each playoff game en route to averages of 20.3 carries for 78.3 yards and 3.0 catches for 15.0 yards. They then declined to add veterans or draft picks to their backfield in the offseason, settling for holdovers Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Keaontay Ingram plus a quartet of undrafted young players. Pacheco could now put up the type of numbers Kareem Hunt and Damien Williams had a few years ago.

Early ADP: Round 4/5 (48.1)   /  ADP Verdict: Underpriced 

• RB Zamir White

White didn't really pique my interest when he was a fourth-round pick back in 2022, as he'd been a timeshare back without dominant efficiency at Georgia and wasn't especially heavy (214 pounds) for his height (6-0) despite being billed as a north-south power runner. My thinking was that he wouldn't be powerful enough to make up for shortcomings in terms of elusiveness and pass-game skills, even with the benefit of 4.40 speed.

That may still end up being true, but I'm willing to reconsider after White had at least 17 carries and 3.55 yards per carry in each of his final four games last season. There's no doubt he has a big opportunity ahead, as the Raiders let Josh Jacobs leave and then settled for Alexander Mattison and sixth-round pick Dylan Laube as their new backfield additions. As much as I'm confident White isn't a true standout, he might be a decent enough player to push for 300 touches when the alternatives are so poor. It'll either happen now or never, and there's a good chance we'll know by the end of September.

Early ADP: Round 8 (88.1)   /  ADP Verdict: Fair Price

• WR Garrett Wilson

Wilson was skilled enough to achieve WR1 fantasy production last season, and arguably his rookie year as well. His target-earning was already at that level, with the 2022 10th overall pick finishing both seasons in the top 20 among WRs for team target share and targets per route. Only Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb drew more targets than Wilson's 315 over the last two years, but 11 wide receivers caught more passes and 17 had more receiving yards.

The problem so far has simply been miserable QB play, with the Jets having an argument for worst-in-the-league status back-to-back years. Wilson's WR1 case doesn't even require Aaron Rodgers to be anything close to his peak self; it should be enough if Rodgers is something like a league-average QB. Should Rodgers prove better than that, Wilson could even push toward high-end WR1 range. Plus, there's some leeway for the 40-year-old to miss a few games, as new backup Tyrod Taylor is better than any of the quarterbacks Gang Green started under center the past two years. The biggest drawback is OC Nathaniel Hackett, whose shortcomings can perhaps be mitigated by Rodgers taking control.

Early ADP: Round 1 (10.7)   /  ADP Verdict: Slightly Underpriced

• WR Chris Olave

Olave's 4.39 speed and crisp route-running should make him one of the league's better deep threats, but he caught just seven of his 29 targets 20-plus yards downfield as a rookie and then went 8-for-32 last season (per PFF). On the other hand, he's done much better than expected on passes 10-to-19 yards downfield, producing 11.7 and 12.1 YPT with catch rates of 75.0 and 65.9 percent. Olave finished fifth among WRs in receiving yards on those intermediate passes both of his first two seasons, allowing him to top 1,000 yards in back-to-back years without seeing a boatload of short targets or having much success on deep passes.

That gives him two areas for obvious growth, especially if there's any truth to the notion that QB Derek Carr's disappointing performance last season was partially a result of playing through numerous injuries (including an AC joint sprain he suffered Week 3 in his throwing shoulder). Carr is nothing special even at his best, but he might have more luck finding Olave downfield with the help of better health and a new offensive coordinator (Klint Kubiak). It remains to be seen if Kubiak/Carr will send Olave more short targets after he displayed modest growth last season with a 4.2 YAC average (up from 2.9 his rookie year).

Early ADP: Round 2 (16.7)   /  ADP Verdict: Fair Price

• WR George Pickens

The hiring of run-loving offensive coordinator Arthur Smith wasn't ideal, but everything else broke in Pickens' favor this offseason after a strong finish to 2023 left him with a 63-1,140-5 receiving line on 106 targets. The Steelers upgraded their QB room, traded away Diontae Johnson and now have open competition for the second and third receiver roles. Pickens appears capable of taking on much more volume, especially after he improved from 9.5 YPT as a rookie to 10.8 YPT last season while adding 22 targets (84 > 106). The hope now is that he can jump up to 130-150 targets without his efficiency cratering, which seems like a reasonable ask given that he proved himself more than just a sideline deep threat last year.

Early ADP: Round 4 (41.1)   /  ADP Verdict: Fair Price 

• WR Jameson Williams

Williams turned 23 in March, making him younger than some of the incoming rookies as he enters his third NFL season. Really, it's his second year, considering he took 78 snaps in 2022 after tearing his ACL in the national championship game that January. Throw in a six-game gambling suspension last season and there's no shortage of excuses for why the 12th overall pick has disappointed.

The good news for Detroit is two-fold. For starters, it looks like Williams will have some utility as a low-volume, big-play guy if nothing else, as his 24 receptions last season included five gains of 20-plus yards and two of 40-plus, and he finished on a high note with two TDs in the NFCCG loss at San Francisco. Of more interest to fantasy owners is the still-present possibility of Williams becoming the type of player that demands at least six or seven targets per game. He won't usurp Amon-Ra St. Brown, but there's plenty of room for volume growth in an offense where Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond combined for 108 targets last year (in addition to Williams' 42).

Early ADP: Round 7 (81.5)   /  ADP Verdict: Fair Price

• WR Khalil Shakir

Shakir is perhaps the most divisive player on this list, as some will focus on his phenomenal per-target production last year (13.6 YPT) while others are more interested in his extremely low target rate (13.3 percent). The latter tends to be more predictive and quicker to stabilize, but it was a pretty small sample (330 routes) that came with Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis and Dalton Kincaid all on the field for most of those plays. 

With Curtis Samuel and Keon Coleman replacing Diggs and Davis, it's safe to assume Shakir's target rate will rise while his per-target efficiency drops. To what extent those things happen is a mystery, and it may partially depend on how the slot work is divided between Samuel and Shakir (including playoffs, Shakir got 50 of his 56 targets in the slot last year, per PFF). He doesn't have the ceiling of other players on this list, but Shakir could be a fantasy WR3 at a WR5 draft price if things work out.

Early ADP: Round 9 (103.4)   /  ADP Verdict: Slightly Overpriced

• WR Romeo Doubs

Doubs doesn't have blazing speed like Christian Watson, nor is he a YAC threat like Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks. In order to emerge as the No. 1 in a crowded WR room, Doubs will need to be the best route-runner of the bunch and build the strongest chemistry with QB Jordan Love. Both of those things remain possible, especially after Doubs exploded for 234 yards in two playoff games while the three aforementioned WRs had 80 receiving yards combined. I was pretty much ready to bury Doubs at one point last season, but now he's back in the mix to eventually emerge as Love's favorite target.

Early ADP: Round 9 (106.1)   /  ADP Verdict: Fair Price