Top 400 Prospect Rankings Mailbag

The top 400 prospect rankings were fully updated earlier this week, and as is always the case, I fielded your questions on Twitter and in the RotoWire Discord for a mailbag podcast Wednesday. 

The top 100 FYPD rankings are fully updated to reflect the J-15 signings, and the FYPD Blueprint will be live on the site Friday, Jan. 19. The dynasty rankings will be updated sometime next week.

Here is the full mailbag, including many questions I couldn't get to on the podcast. Feel free to send more questions to me in the comments or on Discord.

Aaron Wade: I know you say not to pay too much attention to double down arrows with these updates, but any specific reason Drew Thorpe (SD) dropped ~15 spots? Just needing to make room for new guys/FYPD improved looks? If anything, I thought Thorpe's long-term value might be slightly on the rise with the trade with better ballpark, clearer opportunity.

Yeah, I definitely understand how that would be counterintuitive, and it is an upgrade in team context, but it's mostly just due to me being worried about the fastball the more I looked into him. Everything else is great, but I felt I had him ranked too high for a guy with five starts at Double-A and a low-90s fastball. He's still in the top 100, which is an accomplishment for any pitching prospect who sits around 92 mph with his heater.

John McKecknie: Did Jackson Holliday (BAL) lose his grip on the top spot or did Wyatt Langford (TEX) simply take that crown?

It's scary to have a prospect as good as Holliday at 2 and not 1. Holliday has the highest floor of any prospect, but Langford has a significantly higher impact potential in 2024. I've made this analogy before, but essentially, I think Holliday's prime will start in 2025 or 2026, and Langford's prime could start this season.

Todd Whitestone: What's your assessment of Jordan Lawlar's hit tool? Is he more of a contact bat or do you expect him to show power?

He's the total package and a potential five-tool player. The power will be there — I'm not worried about that. He's got 30/30 upside. Three questions with Lawlar: Is he a .250 hitter in the majors or a .275 hitter, is he ready for primetime in 2024, particularly early 2024, or will there be growing pains in his age-21 season, and when will Arizona be comfortable handing him the everyday job? He can win the job in spring training, but if he's just OK, they have enough depth to send him to Triple-A.

Ross Redcay: What has you moving Colson Montgomery (CHW) down?

I just don't think he's that special for roto fantasy. He should be an everyday player who hits top three in his lineup, but he'll be better in OBP than AVG leagues and he won't run. Maybe he's a .250/.350/.450 type of shortstop who is good for 20-25 homers. That's just not that interesting to me. A very useful player, but I feel good about having him ranked by fellow no-speed shortstops Marcelo Mayer (BOS) and Brooks Lee (MIN).

Brenton: Top five arms that get 10+ MLB starts in 2024?

Kyle Harrison (SF), Paul Skenes (PIT), Cade Horton (CHC), Jackson Jobe (DET), AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL). It's not a strong crop of pitching prospects for redraft leagues, especially compared to last year. Harrison is by far the best pitching prospect for 2024 value because he should be able to throw around 150 MLB innings with good health. With Skenes, Horton and Jobe, it's just a bet on talent, as they're the clear three best pitching prospects in the minors, but there's no guarantee we see them early in the season. Smith-Shawver is the next best pitching prospect after Harrison with big-league experience.

Devon Rosene: Xavier Isaac (TB) ahead of Samuel Basallo (BAL) is fun! What pushes him ahead for you?

I've believed in him for longer, so he had a massive head start over Basallo on the rankings, and it's quite possible Isaac is a 650 plate-appearance guy while Basallo is a 450 plate-appearance guy. If Basallo was Baltimore's clear first baseman of the future, they'd be right next to each other.

CH4RLEYS: Jett Williams (NYM) appears to be inside your top 25. What is the thought process for the jump?

He didn't jump at all. He was 14th on the last update and he's 14th on this update. Power may end up being the weakest part of his game for fantasy, but I think he'll be at least a 20-homer guy at peak, and he could have an elite hit tool with elite speed.

JLD: Where will Jackson Holliday (BAL) rank among SS in 2-3 years?

Top three. Bobby Witt and Elly De La Cruz look like his most obvious competition at the top. I'd be surprised if Holliday wasn't top three by the middle of the 2026 season.

Paul: What's the outlook for Tink Hence (STL)?

He's coming off his worst run as a pro and there are reports that the breaking ball has regressed. I've always been worried about durability with Hence due to his size and velocity at such a young age, so I'm backing off. You shouldn't drop him yet, but I'm not going after him as a buy-low or in a startup. I'm always looking for pitchers who are trending up when we're looking at guys at Double-A.

Dynasty Junkie: It seems you've become more interested in NFBC leagues in the last two seasons or so, but I'd like to hear about how the year is looking for you in your dynasty leagues. And what's it like playing in dynasty leagues with your work being so prominent?

It's the third year of the Highlander Dynasty Invitational and the first year where I expect to field a full lineup of active big leaguers every week. I'm liking my build but 2025 is the soonest I could hope to truly contend there. I'm coming off a couple just-cashed years in a couple other dynasty leagues and I won two out of my three H2H points keeper leagues that have existed for 15-plus years. On two of my dynasty teams, Brandon Woodruff and Sandy Alcantara are my aces and SP depth was already my biggest weakness, so 2024 will be a gap year in those leagues.

An exciting development: I am co-managing a startup dynasty team and that startup draft is still going on, but I feel pretty decent about winning that league in Year 1 with good health. I've noticed at least one team in that startup draft using my rankings, and I've heard that in other leagues it can be upwards of half the league using them, but I haven't experienced that firsthand. I'm always going to put transparency with my content ahead of gaining any kind of edge by holding something back, so I don't mind it at all, and it's actually pretty gratifying.

Steve Stoughton: Talk about two pitchers and two hitters who are currently outside the top 50 that have top 10 potential.

I almost never rank pitchers in the top 10, so I will amend the question to which pitchers could be the top pitching prospect in the game. Bubba Chandler (PIT) is my pick to finish the year as the game's top pitching prospect, and I've got him at 52 overall, 12th among all pitchers. Dylan Lesko (SD, ranked 66 overall) is another obvious candidate to shoot up. He needs to show he can handle a full season and pitch deep into games. 

For hitters, Leo De Vries (SD), Sebastian Walcott (TEX) and Druw Jones (ARI) seem like the most likely post-50 hitters to shoot up into the top 10 with huge 2024 seasons -- not that I'm predicting huge seasons from Walcott or Jones. As is the case whenever I get a question like this, the guys I actually think will be in the top 10 are already inside the top 50. You're basically looking for high schoolers or international players who have barely played for this answer, as we already know the strengths and weaknesses of the college bats or the prospects who have been in pro ball for a couple years.

Max20Air: In FYPD drafts, how much of a drop off is Matt Shaw (CHC) from a tier that includes Wyatt Langford (TEX), Dylan Crews (WAS), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD), Walkjer Jenkins (MIN), and Paul Skenes (PIT)? Is it worth paying up to get into the top 5 of the draft?

You can see my tiers shaded in my FYPD rankings, with Jenkings and Yamamoto in a tier and then Jenkings, Skenes, Crews and Shaw in a second tier of four players. So no, picking 6 and likely getting Shaw is an awesome place to be.

Aaron Stoltenberg: What's your projected 2025 top 5 next year at this time?

Walker Jenkins (MIN), Roman Anthony (BOS), Jett Williams (NYM), Xavier Isaac (TB), Lazaro Montes (SEA).

O's Flows: Double down arrows for Josue De Paula (LAD), any specific concerns?

Kyle Glaser of Baseball America, who has seen him play in person, basically insinuated that De Paula is trending towards being a DH, so that puts immense pressure on his bat and will slow his ascent to the majors. Nothing has changed with the offensive aspect of his game, but it was surprising to me to learn he was that bad defensively, given his athletic bloodlines.

Joel Wesseling: How much would Jasson Dominguez (NYY) move up if starting 2024 healthy? As a Reds fan, why so low on Edwin Arroyo? It seemed like you'd come around on Masyn Winn (STL) only to now back off. Was the cup of coffee that scary?

Dominguez would be fifth, and was almost fifth despite the Tommy John surgery. There's no breaking into that elite top four.

Arroyo and Masyn Winn are actually fairly similar, Winn is just locked into being his team's everyday shortstop and Arroyo needs a trade to not be a utility player. Plus Arroyo is over a year behind Winn from an ETA standpoint. There's a gigantic tier for me from Andrew Painter (PHI) at 20 to Colson Montgomery (CHW) at 62, so it's all just personal preference in that range. If you need a shortstop who can contribute speed and play a bunch in 2024, then you can value Winn 10-20 spots higher.

Jameeesssshoes: LAD has a number of interesting pitching prospects in Kyle Hurt, River Ryan, Jackson Ferris, etc. Which do you foresee actually breaking into the MLB roster and sticking in the rotation given their new acquisitions? Ive seen Ryan particularly high on some lists (BP), what makes you lower? Favorite P in the org?

With Emmet Sheehan graduating, Gavin Stone is my favorite pitching prospect in the org for fantasy/dynasty. He's a true starting pitcher and he showed signs of life toward the end of the year, both in the majors and minors. 

I think River Ryan is a reliever, but his stuff is good enough that I still ranked him under the expectation he'll be a reliever. I know he's younger than his age in terms of pitching development as a converted position player, but he's still 25 years old and had a 13.1 K-BB% at Double-A. That's bad. 

I love Hurt, he's got the best pure present stuff of these guys, and love Ferris, although he's still extremely risky. I think Nick Frasso is a reliever too, but a better one than Ryan, and I like Justin Wrobleski and Payton Martin quite a bit too — they can both start. Hyun-Seok Jang is a fun wild card and Maddux Bruns is another exciting reliever prospect. The great thing about Hurt is that even if they move him to the bullpen, he could get high-leverage outs right away this season. 

Jack Cohen: How many Mets on there and who?

There were 15 Mets, I won't list them all, but nobody asked about Christian Scott despite the fact I thought his rise was the most noteworthy on the entire update. Scott's stuff is better than I thought it was and his command is excellent, so I strongly recommend trying to get some Scott. With David Stearns in charge, I think the Mets are quickly going to turn into one of those orgs. that consistently gets the most out of its pitching prospects, and the home park is already elite for pitchers.

Big Doink: You seem to be much higher on Parker Meadows (DET) than other sites. What stands out for you and where do you think your opinion differs?

I'm not sure why people aren't higher on Meadows, but I absolutely love him. He's got a plus arm and plus speed, is the team's best center fielder and doesn't have pronounced lefty/righty splits, so he'd have to be notably worse than his offensive projections to lose playing time. Meadows is a safe bet to go 15/15 with the upside to go 20/30. He has a legitimate case as the fifth best hitting prospect for 2024 value, behind Noelvi Marte, Wyatt Langford, Evan Carter and Jackson Chourio. You could argue for Jackson Holliday or Junior Caminero over Meadows, and ADP favors those two phenoms, but just the fact I'm happily drafting Meadows as a starter in redraft leagues is a big mark in his favor.

Travis Magnuson: Where would Luis Matos (SF) and Vaughn Grissom (BOS) rank if they were eligible?

They'd both be in that massive tier I referenced from 20-62. I'd have Matos around 40th overall, right by Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC). Grissom would be a touch higher, by Curtis Mead (TB), since he's clearly got an everyday job that Matos probably won't have on Opening Day.

Buck: Why did Ethan Salas (SD) drop?

Salas is another guy in that massive tier. He only dropped from 22 to 34, which is basically nothing. If you want to prioritize him, go nuts, but I will generally be lower on catching prospects than most/all other sites. I think Adley Rutschman is the only catching prospect I've ever ranked in the top 10 (correct me if I'm forgetting someone), and I expect to keep getting these types of questions about Salas and Samuel Basallo (BAL) until they graduate.

Bip: If you had to plant your flag, which Atlanta pitcher are you taking, AJ Smith-Shawver or Hurston Waldrep?

As you can tell by me having them back-to-back at 29 and 30, it's a toss up. There were iterations of the rankings where I had AJSS in the top 25 and other iterations where Waldrep was in there. If Waldrep had more of a strike-throwing track record, he'd easily be top 25. I'll go with Smith-Shawver since he's younger and already has MLB experience, but I'd also like to refuse to answer this question.

Facts: Are your rankings stat based or are there players with bad stats who are still highly rated?

They're based more off performance/stats than any other factor. If you struggle in a small sample while being young for a level, you can still rank highly, but I don't think I've got anyone highly ranked who struggled over a large sample at an age-appropriate level. So many hitters had good years last year — the pitching just wasn't that good. If you didn't have a good year, there should at least be a good reason why. And with pitchers, they'll show you how good they are. 

Sean Kallevig: Who are your favorite candidates to be the biggest risers this season that you currently rank outside your top 200?

The guys I expect to be big risers are not outside the top 200. That said, Jose Pirela (CLE OF), Michael Arias (Cubs RHP), Zyhir Hope (LAD OF), Ruben Santana (ARI 3B), Carlos Lagrange (NYY RHP), Luis De Leon (BAL LHP), Pedro Catuy (ARI OF), Ryan Bergert (SD LHP), Trevor McDonald (SF RHP) are some potential post-200 sleepers (for lack of a better word). 

Matt Logan: I've noticed Nelson Rada (LAA) moving up quite a few lists, but don't know what to make of it. Does he have the potential to grow into power or is he just improving all around?

Rada is a better real-life prospect than a fantasy prospect due to his potentially plus center field defense. He's still just 18 and not particularly close to being a viable 15-homer bat in the majors, which isn't a knock on him as a worker, it's just the reality of his body/strength. He could get there in three or four years, but right now it's a light-hitting leadoff profile with 30-steal upside. I also don't trust the Angels to get the most out of him.

Stretch: In dynasty, when dealing productive vets such as Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Altuve, Marcus Semien, Yu Darvish, Justin Verlander, what prospect range are you looking for in return compared to what's a realistic return? Big risk dealing proven production for 'potential' production...

I dealt Veralnder for George Springer in a league last year. It doesn't always have to be for a prospect. I wouldn't deal the three hitters you mentioned unless I'm in a rebuild. You won't be able to get a ton for Darvish or Verlander, especially in the offseason. The best time to trade those guys would be in June if they're healthy and productive, so that the teams in your league know that they're contending and can make that type of short-term swing to push them over the top. 

In the startup I'm co-managing, Altuve went right before we took Gleyber Torres and right behind Josh Jung, so you don't need to settle for a prospect for a guy of that caliber. Semien went ahead of Adley Rutschman, Matt McLain and Triston Casas in that same league, so again, aim very high with those guys.

Pthomae1297: Cam Collier (CIN). So young. Why such a huge drop?

He's a long way from the majors and at best he'll be a four-category guy. His age is a big positive from a developmental standpoint, but it's also concerning that he's as big as he is at this age. And he hit the ball on the ground too much. So he's got to adjust his swing and approach and he's got to really stay on top of his conditioning AND he's three-plus years away.

Ding Dong McGee: Roderick Arias' (NYY) zone contact% was apparently frighteningly low in the FCL. Not a concern to you at all?

He also didn't chase much and showed off his super loud tools. His hit tool isn't as scary as, say, Sebastian Walcott (TEX) or Druw Jones (ARI), and the upside is in that same class. No concerns at all would mean he would already be in the top 25, so putting him at 47 is a fair spot while acknowledging he's still very risky. Some people seem to only want upside guys like this, while others are scared off by the idea of a young guy with hit tool concerns, so you just have to know what you like and what type of prospects these guys are.

Mike: Ryan Clifford was destroying baseballs in the Astros system where he was sporting a 900+ OPS throughout the year with a .300+ BA. He then struggled mightily upon joining the Mets. Do you think he's a candidate for a big jump this year now that he's had time to settle w/ the Mets?

He'll surely be better this year than he was after the trade. And he's a good couple months from being the second-best first base prospect in the minors (behind Xavier Isaac of the Rays and after Kyle Manzardo of the Guardians presumably graduates).

Scott Courlander: How did you split the hairs between Colt Emerson (SEA) and Max Clark (DET)? What kind of lines do you expect in the majors?

Emerson seems like the safer bet to hit for average and power. Clark obviously has the 30-plus steal speed and it's unlikely Emerson is more than a 15-steal guy. I absolutely care about a guy's pro debut and Emerson had the better debut, so that's essentially what gave him the edge. Clark could be a .275 AVG, 15-HR, 30-SB leadoff hitter. Emerson could be a .300 AVG, 25-HR, 10-SB No. 2 or No. 3 hitter.

Travis Pastore: Curious what the difference is between Cole Young (SEA) and Colt Emerson (SEA), and what pushed Emerson up and Young down in this recent update?

Impact. Maybe Young could be a Bryson Stott type with half as many steals, but Emerson could be a top-five fantasy third baseman.

3-Putt Par: Talk about Cole Young (SEA) headed into 2024. GB rate down from 22-23 and saw his BB rate & ISO improve from A to A+ while maintaining a strong K-rate. Surprised to see him drop as much as he did...

Power and run grades really dampen his appeal to me. Everett is a homer-friendly home park, and he hit five of his six High-A homers there and the other one he hit in Spokane, which is even more hitter friendly. Ther's no denying the strength of his hit tool, and he's gonna be able to provide defensive value, but I don't see him being more than a 15-homer, 15-20 steal guy, especially in Seattle.

Maclunkie: Why so low on Colt Emerson (SEA)? Age, distance, power potential? He crushed ACL and California League last year in a profile very similar to Jackson Holliday (BAL) at a similar age (~4 years younger than Low-A). You even ranking him tier 3 (top 10) in FYPD, so, why the disrespect in the rankings?

Is having the player who was the No. 22 overall pick and played in 24 pro games ranked 33 overall "low"? If I had put Emerson at say, 15th overall, I would have gotten roughly a dozen questions asking for justification on that one. You must be the biggest Emerson believer out there if you view his ranking as disrespectful. Also, this is an elite class, so being at the top of the third tier isn't a slight. There's no shame in being behind Matt Shaw (CHC), especially when Shaw is going to beat Emerson to the majors by two years. I definitely did not expect to get a question about why I'm low on Emerson, and in fact multiple prior questions wanted justification for why I'm so high on him...

Several questions about Yu-Min Lin (ARI) falling off the list...

That was done on purpose, but it was a mistake in hindsight, so I added him back (374 overall). Usually when subscribers are miffed at a guy not being on the list, they're right to be miffed — this isn't like when I tweet out a picture of the top 25 and a non-subscriber makes fun of the rankings because they don't see Ethan Salas in the top 25. With Lin, there's got to be room on the 400 for a pitcher with his caliber of offspeed stuff who has experience at Double-A. That said, undersized lefties with plus changeups and below-average fastball velocity typically get hit harder and harder as they climb towards the majors, and that has been the case with Lin. If it works out, he's a Logan Allen (CLE) type, but it should be noted that Allen was a better strike thrower than Lin has been at High-A and Double-A, and you need excellent command to pull off this kind of profile. So to sum up, thanks for holding me accountable but also me leaving him off was a signal that I'm not a believer in Lin making it as a big-league starter.

Mike Brown: What happened in the last couple months to drop Carlos Rodriguez (MIL) so much?

Rodriguez's fastball just wasn't as good as I thought it was. He was throwing harder in the WBC, but he was sitting in the low-90s during the season. I generally tried to value fastball velocity on this update more than I have in the past, so that's why guys like Drew Thorpe (SD) and Yu-Min Lin (ARI) are trending down. I may have gone too far the other way with Rodriguez though. 

Danny J: You and Chris Welsh are 199 spots apart on Ivan Melendez (ARI). Is it just Welsh loving D-backs or something else that accounts for the discrepancy?

I can't speak to why Welsh has him where he has him, but I think Melendez's hit tool is terrible. He was a little old for Double-A and still had a 35.3 percent strikeout rate and a 5.9 percent walk rate. For a 1B/DH prospect, that's just not gonna cut it. I almost didn't rank him, so if you can get something for him, I would.

Steve Grey: Was wondering if your lack of love for Nathan Martorella (SD) is his age at level. Solid contact skill and batting eye with hopefully more power to come...

He was one of my last cuts. A first base prospect who had a 25.4 Hard% and .253 AVG as a 22-year-old at age-appropriate levels just doesn't do it for me. He makes a ton of contact, but it's just OK contact and he's at the bottom of the defensive spectrum. Martorella is basically the opposite of Melendez, and neither player projects to clear the first base bar offensively.

Zwibi: Considering his beautiful swing and zone contact rates, especially the good hard-hit numbers but higher groundball rates, is it unrealistic to see Jackson Merrill (SD) as Christian Yelich? Not talking about the peak MVP year but just consistent Yelich years...

I think it's a good comp in terms of Merrill's trajectory of eventually getting to more and more power, like Yelich did. There are some other key differences: Merrill is better in AVG leagues, Yelich is better in OBP leagues, and Yelich's speed really drives his value, whereas I don't think Merrill will be more than a 15-steal guy.

Facts: How much does age factor into the rankings? Who is the oldest prospect?

Age is a massive component of the rankings. Michael Busch (CHC), Matt Canterino (MIN), Sawyer Gipson-Long (DET) and Spencer Horwitz (TOR) are the only 26-year-olds on the top 400. 

Waingros Jelly Sandwich: Cole Carrigg (COL)… is he the ultimate boom or bust prospect?

If he can hit for power in games like he flashed late last season, look out, although I don't see massive bust potential either, given the strenght of his other tools. At worst, I think Carrig will be a useful utility player.

O's Flows: You seem a bit lower on Samuel Basallo (BAL) than consensus. What would you need to see from him in 2024 to move him up into the top 15?

I'm going to keep being lower on Basallo than most/everyone due to his projected role for fantasy. These aren't rankings of the best pure hitters, they're fantasy rankings that factor in stuff like projected playing time, home park (not a big deal here since he's a lefty hitter) and position. As long as Basallo remains with the Orioles, his projected playing time is capped, and I don't think they'll trade him. Every team in a competitive dynasty league could use more good pitchers, outfielders, middle infielders and corner infielders, but half or less than half of the teams in most competitive dynasty leagues can use another quality catcher.

Paul: Would you push Samuel Basallo (BAL) up higher if he moves off catcher and into another position?

If I knew Baltimore was going to eventually use him as their everyday first baseman, I'd move him up, but I know that they currently do not plan on doing that. They may be able to get him playing time at first base some years, but they still have Coby Mayo, who I expect to be an everyday first baseman for them before Basallo debuts, and they've still got Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander and Heston Kjerstad looking for at-bats near the bottom of the defensive spectrum.

Ross Redcay: What are Tyler Black's (MIL) chances of making the Opening Day roster? Roster Resource currently has Jake Bauers and Andruw Monasterio at the corners...

It's all about defense with Black. If it's an adventure whenever a ball gets hit to him in spring training, I don't think they'd break camp with him as the everyday third baseman, but if Bauers is a K machine in ST, they could just make the move of Black to first base official and go that route on Opening Day. So what are the chances? I'll say 60 percent chance he's on the OD roster. 

Ross Redcay: Ricardo Cabrera (CIN) has dropped over 100 spots since the July update. I assume it's not his production causing the drop. What's your concern there?

He looks like he's going to end up either being a stocky, fringe-average third baseman or a first baseman. I was genuinely stunned when I saw footage of him last summer — he was so thick, it was wild to think he was signed as a shortstop in January 2022. Guys who sign as shortstops often move off the position, but it isn't usually shortstop to fringe-average third baseman in less than two years. The bat looks legit though, so he could potentially pull it off as a bat-first slugger. 

Scott Courlander: What's Blaze Jordan (BOS) gotta do? I know he supposedly struggles with velocity, but those K rates are so low…

This new front office didn't draft him, so he's not going to get the benefit of the doubt based on the team's investment in him. The velocity thing doesn't bother me — it's the kind of thing people bring up when they're looking for reasons to be low on a guy — but the lefty/righty splits do bother me for a future 1B/DH. His OPS was ~100 points higher against lefties in 2022 and ~200 points higher against lefties in 2023. None of that would bother me if he projected to add defensive value, or at least be a neutral defender somewhere like third base or right field, but R/R 1B/DH types need to be able to mash RHP to have a chance at everyday playing time. Again, part of it is I just don't envision the Red Sox giving him the opportunity. If I knew he'd get a shot at everyday playing time in, say, 2025, I'd have him in the top 150.

Danny J: You are leading the Hayden Hive for Haydn McGeary (CHC). What do you see that others aren't?

Monster exit velocities, a decent approach and acceptable contact skill. I would actually bet against McGeary making it as an everyday designated hitter, but he's got 35-homer upside if he is able to get that opportunity.

Danny J: You are jolly over Jared Jones (PIT). What do you see in him that other rankers don't?

A 70-grade fastball (touches 100 mph), plus slider (touches 94 mph), acceptable third and fourth pitches, and massively improved command. A 9.7 BB% at Triple-A with automated balls and strikes is actually excellent for a 21-year-old with his electric stuff. Jones is the only player I have on all five of my NFBC draft-and-hold teams.

Brenton: Can you expand on the fall of Gabriel Gonzalez (SEA)?

His body keeps trending in the wrong direction (listed at 5-foot-10, 220 pounds as a 20-year-old), which puts more pressure on the bat and raises concerns over whether he can actually play the outfield and put his plus arm to use. His power could be plus in the majors, but his groundball rates have been over 50 percent at two of his last three stops, so he'll need to address that issue while finding some sort of conditioning/diet regimen that works.

Facts: What elevates a hitting prospect the fastest? Is it the power, the defense, the contact?

It's never just one thing, but contact is the most important of the three factors you listed.

Facts: What elevates a pitching prospect the fastest? Velocity, command, pitch variety?

Again, not as simple as pointing to one tool as the thing that elevates a guy, but command is the most important of the three factors you listed.