The Z Files: Outfield Studs to Duds

We made it friends. Welcome to the final installment of "Tiers of a Clown". What started as an innocuous way of looking at relievers because there's only so many ways to say "misses bats but also has control issues" has morphed into a challenging and eye-opening exercise, at least for me. I've applied the principles to a couple of magazine mocks and one league and am very much looking forward to fine-tuning the process as the draft season picks up in earnest.

For those just getting back into the fantasy baseball swing and are wondering what I'm talking about, this is my crusade to have drafters shift focus from "value" to roster construction. Projections and valuation are still important, but there's too much overlap in the resulting rankings to use them blindly. Everyone should have the bigger picture in mind. It's not about hitting category targets but rather assembling a competitive team able to be managed efficiently in-season. A static projection masks how some players have a wider or narrower range of plausible expectations. Spending some time to evaluate risk versus stability is more important than eclipsing statistical goals.

Ergo, instead of providing rankings that list players in descending order of how I'd draft them, I'm first classifying them into groups defined by a similar trait inherent to roster building. Sure, players are loosely listed by quality within each group, but the important thing is not to decide between a risky and a reliable player of similar "value", but to first decide which trait best works for your intended team construction and then choosing from the corresponding group.

Here are the links to the previous rankings for those needing to catch up:

• Relief Pitchers
• Starting Pitchers
• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstop

As has been the case for the other positions, first the classifications will be presented. Please keep in mind they're not necessarily in order of player quality, though the groups with better players are listed early while those with lesser players appear late. That said, there are players in groups listed after others that are "better" than players in previous groups. Also please realize the classifications are subjective, tailored to the manner I want to assemble a team. If you choose to mimic this process, you will likely have different groupings.

One final note, DH-only players are included with the outfielders.

Classifications

• Top-5 Stud
• Former Top-10 Stud
• Future First Rounder?
• The Need for Speed
• Power with Low Average
• Solid Track Record
• Risky
• Solid But Without Track Record
• All-Around Contributor
• Back-end Filler
• The Future

Top-5 Stud

I know, I know. If my projections, when converted to projected earnings, rank Acuna on top, I should draft him if I had the first overall pick. Not so fast. Projections and valuation simply aren't that accurate. Give Betts another homer and take a steal away from Acuna and they flip. Give Trout 15 more plate appearances and take 15 away from the others and we have a new No. 1.

I won't scoff at anyone selecting Acuna first. I'm willing to be wrong. All I'm asking is you don't deride my preference for a longer track record. And oh yeah, get off my lawn.

Former Top-10 Stud

If you're familiar with my work, you know I'm largely risk averse and as such likely to pass on these options. While that's true, I've turned the corner on Harper and I'm willing to take the discount on Martinez and Blackmon. There are other options so I don't have to take the chance on Yelich, but Bellinger is perplexing, especially if he's available in the 14-17 range.

Future First Rounder?

Everyone in this group is being drafted ahead of where I'm comfortable taking them, except Ozuna and Arozarena. My guess with Ozuna is my neutral park translation really favors him since he's played in a couple of the most power-suppressing venues (Marlins Park and Busch Stadium) out there but still produced. Plus, he doesn't run. I suspect the deal with Arozarena is we're warned not to trust small samples so there's a bit of a reverse effect going on, but as I discussed HERE, Arozarena's pedigree supports a lofty expectation.

The Need for Speed

While I'm not categorically avoiding anyone from this set, I don't want to be forced to take one to make up for a lack of steals, hence the Robles quip since he's the poster boy for catching up in the category. 

Power with Low Average

From a game theory perspective, I don't worry too much about batting average as it's the most tightly bunched of all the roto categories and prone to the whims of a lucky or unlucky BABIP. As such, I prefer not to invest in bats whose primary contribution is average. He's not an outfielder, but DJ LeMahieu is a prime example. It would therefore seem that I may be amenable to drafting a low average so long as it comes with bountiful power and associated run production. However, that's not the case. The way I keep batting average manageable is not adding a drain in the category, since I likely don't have someone to buffer it unless I'm fortunate to draft an early BA stud. Even then, the preference is not to chip away at the average, and instead to worry less about speed with the hopes of crushing four categories then figuring out steals later.

Solid Track Record

While it's not a sure thing, there's an excellent chance I leave a draft with at least two from this group, especially towards the end since I'll let you draft Julio Rodriguez and gladly click on Peralta or Dickerson instead. Even in a format like the NFBC Main Event, my tack is towards safety. It worked for me in 2019 when I took down The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. Some feel it's necessary to take chances to win. I disagree.

Risky

The reasons for the risk varies, but the bottom line is there's downside in this group. I'm more inclined to take a shot on the injury risks since they can be removed from the active lineup when hurt. With the others, you often have to ride them out. Of the names, I'm most intrigued by Alex Dickerson.

Solid But Without Track Record

Here, it's all about the cost. My expectation is favorable for everyone but there's a bit of sample size risk. If there is a discount relative to my expectation, I'm all over it. At least so far, Smith, Hays, Happ, Mountcastle, Santander and Davis have all been considerations. Lowe and Grisham aren't getting a discount.

All-Around Contributor

Players from this group are perfect for adding some steals without sacrificing much elsewhere. They all can fit in other classifications, but I like to distinguish those helpful in steals.

Back-end Filler

These are all players I'll draft if I have a late opening (perhaps at Utility) but they're better suited for a reserve spot.

The Future

This is not at all a ranking of expectations; it's a guess at playing time. As has been the case throughout this series, it's best to use James Anderson's rankings on prospects.

I've been ending each position with a set of recognizable names that I have no interest in drafting. There are ample players discussed already to cover a 15-team mixed league, so please consider anyone missing as someone not on my draft-worthy list. As always, I'm happy to discuss any missing player or embellish anything above in the comments below.

NEXT WEEK: Not sure, but I'll think of something