Spring Training Job Battles: AL Central

Last week, we kicked off our Spring Training Job Battles series with the AL East and NL East. The series continues this week with the AL Central today and the NL Central to follow soon.

Note: the number in parenthesis is the player's NFBC ADP since 2/1

Chicago White Sox

Right Field: Oscar Colas (668), Dominic Fletcher (698), Gavin Sheets (736), Zach DeLoach (751), Peyton Burdick (undrafted), Kevin Pillar (undrafted)

Like most of the White Sox' roster, this is a pretty uninspiring group. Fletcher was acquired via trade from the Diamondbacks in early February and general manager Chris Getz said shortly after that the 26-year-old "has a leg up" in the competition for the right field gig. Fletcher impressed in his 102 plate appearances with Arizona last season, slashing .301/.350/.441 with two homers. He has more thump in his bat than his brother, David, but Dominic's power is pretty middling and he's not a base stealer. He's probably more of a fourth outfielder, but on this roster he should have some leash in a likely strong-side platoon role. Pillar looks like the obvious short side of the platoon, although the White Sox did recently add Burdick via waivers. Colas had some buzz at this time last year, but he flopped in the big league and seems to have fallen out of favor in the organization's eyes. He's still just 25, though, and probably has the best chance of being an impact bat in this group, even if the chances look remote now.

Second Base/Shortstop: Paul DeJong (669), Nicky Lopez (694), Lenyn Sosa (748), Braden Shewmake (750), Jose Rodriguez (751), Danny Mendick (undrafted)

All of these guys are capable of handling both middle-infield positions, so some mixing and matching is likely. DeJong has been a shortstop almost exclusively, though, and has a steady glove, so perhaps he's the favorite to open the year at that spot. Sosa has the most incumbent experience at second base and has some upside but has looked overmatched so far at the big-league level. DeJong and Lopez seem like the most boring picks to hold down the middle-infield fort, but they also might be the most likely to do so, at least early on in the season. I didn't include top prospect Colson Montgomery in this group because he's surely headed back to the minors for more seasoning. It's needed, as he's coming off an injury-shortened 2023 season, has yet to reach Triple-A Charlotte and his production so far at Double-A Birmingham hasn't been great. He'll also turn just 22 later this month. The White Sox don't think Montgomery is far off, though, so whoever occupies shortstop at the beginning of the season could just be keeping the seat warm for him.

Fourth/Fifth Starter: Chris Flexen (733), Touki Toussaint (750), Michael Soroka (619), Garrett Crochet (635), Nick Nastrini (740), Jesse Scholtens (ND), Jared Shuster (746), Jake Woodford (ND), Chad Kuhl (ND)

Flexen seems like close to a lock for one of these spots as long as he doesn't fall flat on his face this spring. The 29-year-old is coming off a dreadful 2023 campaign but was a perfectly solid back-end starter for the Mariners from 2021-22, collecting a 3.66 ERA over 64 appearances (53 starts). Probably the most intriguing of the rest of the rotation candidates is Crochet, who is transitioning to being a starter after each of his first 72 appearances at the major-league level came in relief. It's probably unrealistic to think the left-hander can be a full-time starter right out of the gate in the majors, though, given that he hasn't started a game since he was a Tennessee Volunteer and has thrown a total of 25 innings over the last two seasons. It would stand to reason that Soroka is in line to capture a rotation spot, as well, with one beat writer writing of the righty that it's "his to lose." Soroka cannot be optioned to the minors and virtually all of his pro experience is as a starting pitcher. The White Sox are also no doubt eager to see what they have in the former top prospect after they picked him up via trade from the Braves following numerous injury setbacks.

Closer: John Brebbia (499), Prelander Berroa (665), Bryan Shaw (743), Corey Knebel (740), Tanner Banks (750), Joe Barlow (750), Jimmy Lambert (undrafted), Dominic Leone (undrafted) 

The White Sox gave Brebbia a $5.5 million contract this winter, and he has the best recent performance of anyone in this group, which seemingly pushes him to the front of the pack here. However, Brebbia strained a calf last week and his readiness for Opening Day looks very much in question. Non-roster invitees Knebel and Barlow have significant closing experience and Leone has a bit, as well. Knebel was one of the better relievers in the National League for a short window with the Brewers but has seen his career sidetracked by injury, including a shoulder procedure which knocked him out for all of 2023. He's a bit behind schedule this spring but is expected to be ready for Opening Day. You could certainly envision a scenario where Knebel captures this gig, and the White Sox would love for him to have a great first half before flipping him to a contender. It's a mystery as to how his stuff will rebound post-surgery, though. The darkhorse here is Berroa, a 23-year-old flamethrower who is long on stuff and short on control. It seems unlikely that the White Sox would throw him into the ninth inning right away, but Berroa would be the most intriguing pick from a fantasy perspective. As intriguing as a closer on the White Sox could be, anyway.

Cleveland Guardians

Designated Hitter: Kyle Manzardo (444), Deyvison De Los Santos (734)

Both of these guys could play some first base, but it sure seems as though the Guardians plan to use Josh Naylor as their everyday first baseman, with some DH days mixed in. Manzardo would appear to be the obvious choice at DH. The 23-year-old is one of the team's top prospects, acquired from the Rays at last year's trade deadline for Aaron Civale. He got off to a lackluster start last season when he was still in the Rays organization, but Manzardo was battling a shoulder injury and also dealing with his mother's health issues. A .938 OPS at Triple-A Columbus and .905 OPS in the Arizona Fall League seemed to represent a better indication of his skill set. That said, it seems to be a common thought among Guardians writers that Manzardo will probably go back to Columbus to begin the season. Service time could be a consideration, but there's also the feeling that the chilly temperatures in Cleveland in April make for a difficult environment for a young hitter to break into. Even if Manzardo is indeed ticketed for Columbus, he shouldn't be there long. De Los Santos is a 20-year-old Rule 5 pick who hit just .254/.297/.431 with a 26 percent strikeout rate at the Double-A level in 2023. He's got loads of power potential, but it would be quite a stretch to think he could handle regular at-bats in the majors right now. Cleveland doesn't have great options here beyond Manzardo, so if it's not him, expect some mixing and matching until he arrives.

Shortstop: Brayan Rocchio (624), Gabriel Arias (688), Tyler Freeman (747), Jose Tena (ND)

Tena and Freeman will throw their hats in the ring, but this battle should come down to Arias and Rocchio. Arias was the club's primary shortstop down the stretch last season after Amed Rosario was traded. He graded out well defensively and sported a nice .791 OPS against right-handed pitching. Rather bizarrely, though, the right-handed hitting Arias was chewed up and spit out by southpaws, managing just a .316 OPS with a 45.4 percent strikeout rate. A 91.1 mph average exit velocity, 46.3 percent hard-hit rate and 9.9 percent barrel rate offered promise. Rocchio is ranked as the No. 79 prospect in baseball by our own James Anderson. The 23-year-old has always made a lot of contact and last season at Columbus he drew a bunch more walks, too, but his home run output dropped to just seven and he slugged just .321 during his time with the big club. Arias should enter camp as the favorite here.

Center Field/Right Field: Ramon Laureano (569), Estevan Florial (677), Myles Straw (703), Will Brennan (716)

Straw won a Gold Glove for his work in center field in 2022 and remained an above-average defender there in 2023. His offense, though, has become untenable, with his .580 OPS over the last two seasons representing the lowest mark (by far) among qualifiers. The Guardians are hoping Florial can overtake Straw in center field. Acquired from the Yankees in December, Florial is loaded with tools and loaded with strikeout concerns. His playing time in four seasons with the Yanks was sporadic, at best, but he's fanned at a 30.6 percent rate which virtually matches his strikeout rate at the Triple-A level (30.3 percent). Florial is going to make the team regardless, because he's out of options. Most of Laureano's experience is in center field, but he's better suited for right field at this point, and that seems to be primarily where Cleveland plans to deploy him. He and Brennan could platoon there, although it probably wouldn't be a strict one. Both guys could also see some action at DH.

Detroit Tigers

Third Base: Zach McKinstry (514), Matt Vierling (546), Gio Urshela (648) 

The Tigers brough Urshela aboard last week, signing him to a modest one-year, $1.5 million contract. It's possible he immediately vaults to the top of the pecking order here, although part of the appeal with Urshela is that he can play all over the infield, and manager A.J. Hinch surely will take advantage of that. He's better against left-handed pitching, but president of baseball operations Scott Harris said he doesn't view Urshela as a platoon bat. While the addition of Urshela could eat into Vierling's playing time, the 27-year-old should still see some action at the hot corner while also getting some starts in the outfield. All but four of the left-handed hitting McKinstry's starts last season came against right-handers, but he was equally uninspiring at the plate versus both righties (.653 OPS) and lefties (.653 OPS). Like Urshela and Vierling, McKinstry can also play multiple other positions. Jace Jung looks like the future at the hot corner for the Tigers, but the club has already informed him that he's not in competition for a spot on the Opening Day roster. The 23-year-old does figure to take over at third base at some point this season, however.

Fourth Starter/Fifth Starter: Reese Olson (289), Sawyer Gipson-Long (521), Matt Manning (526), Casey Mize (558), Alex Faedo (738)

Olson should have a leg up for one of these spots after some strong work during his rookie season. He was particularly effective in September, posting a microscopic 1.44 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and 25:9 K:BB across 31.1 innings (five starts). Additionally, Olson doesn't have the potential workload concerns (at least not to the same level) as Manning and Mize, the two guys who are likely next in the pecking order. Manning was limited to just 86.2 innings in 2023 after throwing only 95.1 in 2022. Meanwhile, Mize didn't pitch at all last season following Tommy John and back surgeries and was limited to just 10.2 frames the year prior. Olson completed 140.1 innings between the majors and minors in 2023. At minimum, some workload monitoring will be required here, and perhaps some form of piggybacking could be in order. Joey Wentz will be used as a reliever this spring but could fit as a quasi-piggyback option with Manning or Mize. The guess here is that Mize will go to the minors for a while to knock rust off, but he could always change the narrative with a strong Grapefruit League showing. Gipson-Long and Faedo are probably on the outside looking in, but it seems likely that both of them are needed for starts this season at some point.

Kansas City Royals

Second Base: Michael Massey (527), Adam Frazier (677), Garrett Hampson (727), Nick Loftin (729)

Massey's first two months of last season when he collected a .352 OPS in April and then turned it around with a .940 OPS in May represented a microcosm of his season as a whole, one which featured high highs and low lows. Slated to turn 26 in March, Massey could still open up the 2024 campaign as the Royals' primary second baseman again. However, the club brought in some veteran security by adding Adam Frazier to the mix. Both Massey and Frazier bat left-handed, so it's not a neat platoon situation. While Massey is basically a pure second baseman (he does have very limited experience at third base), Frazier can also handle the corner outfield spots and would figure to spell Hunter Renfroe some in the outfield on days when the opposition sends a tough right-hander to the hill. Loftin isn't a lock for the Opening Day roster but could see some starts at the keystone versus lefties if he makes the team. The same goes for Hampson, who is in camp as a non-roster invitee.

Center Field: Drew Waters (619), Kyle Isbel (675)

Isbel has drawn rave reviews for his defense in center field. Unfortunately, the bat just hasn't come around, as he sports a poor .232/.281/.370 batting line through his first 674 plate appearances at the major-league level. The early feeling seems to be that Isbel comes into camp as the favorite to capture the center field gig, with the hope that the Royals will get enough power in the outfield corners from MJ Melendez and Hunter Renfroe to make up for Isbel's lack of thump. Isbel will get some competition from Waters, though. The 25-year-old Waters is an accomplished defender himself but last season usually shifted over to right field on days both he and Isbel were in the lineup. The switch-hitter is very fast and has some good raw power, but the contact concerns that he's always had have followed him into the big leagues, where he owns a 33 percent strikeout rate in his first 130 contests. It's possible only one of them makes the Opening Day roster, but it wouldn't be a surprise if both Isbel and Water wind up spending a lot of time in center.

Fifth Starter: Jordan Lyles (741), Daniel Lynch (741), Alec Marsh (751)

Lyles is owed $8.5 million in 2024 and made 31 starts for the Royals last season, which was the third year in a row that he's made at least 30 starts. Because of that it stands to reason that he's the clear favorite to capture this job. However, he also lost 17 games and posted a 6.28 ERA in 2023, so a team that thinks they can compete to win the division doesn't plan to just hand him a job. Lynch is coming off a 2023 campaign which saw him total just 52.1 frames because of shoulder problems, but he's proclaimed himself the healthiest he's been in two years after adding strength over the offseason with the hope that his shoulder will hold up. The tall lefty has fallen shy of expectations so far in the majors but is still just 27. Marsh had no trouble missing bats in his 17 appearances (eight starts) for Kansas City last season with 85 punchouts across 74.1 frames. However, he also walked 39 and held a 5.69 ERA. In other words, it was basically what he did in the minors, as well. Unless they want to bury him in long relief, Lyles probably will get the first crack. 

Closer: Will Smith (353), James McArthur (416), Nick Anderson (670), John Schreiber (739)

With 112 saves since the start of the 2018 season, including 22 last year with the Rangers, Smith figures to enter the season at the top of this hierarchy. However, the odds that this winds up being something of a committee situation seem to be pretty high. Seven different relievers collected saves for the Royals last season despite the fact that they tied for the fewest (28) in the league. Almost half of those went to Scott Barlow, who is now in Cleveland. Four different relievers notched saves in September, with McArthur leading the way with four. McArthur is the only returning member of the bullpen listed here, as Smith was signed as a free agent and Schreiber and Anderson were acquired via trade. Schreiber has some high-leverage experience from his days with the Red Sox but was destroyed by left-handed batters last season. Meanwhile, Anderson might have the best swing-and-miss stuff of the group but has a long injury history. He does have some history with manager Matt Quatraro from their days in Tampa Bay. The Rays, of course, often didn't have an established closer when Quatraro was their bench coach.

Minnesota Twins

Designated Hitter: Alex Kirilloff (410), Jose Miranda (691), Trevor Larnach (750)

With Carlos Santana expected to see most of his playing time at first base, Kirilloff now figures to see the bulk of his at-bats at DH, at least early on in the season. It's not a bad idea, given that the 26-year-old is coming back from offseason shoulder surgery and has spent much of his relatively brief big-league career on the injured list. Larnach represents another option from the left side and Miranda from the right side. Miranda would make sense as a platoon partner, but he's coming back from shoulder surgery himself and might be better served to rediscover his swing with some time at Triple-A St. Paul. If that happens, the Twins' DH on days they're facing lefties might be Ryan Jeffers, with Christian Vazquez starting at catcher. It should also be noted that while Byron Buxton is expected to be a full-time center fielder in 2024, it's going to be a big ask considering his injury history and full-time DH status a season ago. He might be asked to DH fairly regularly while new acquisition Manuel Margot patrols center field.

Fifth Starter: Louie Varland (333), Anthony DeSclafani (628)

This should be the most closely-watched battle in Twins camp. DeSclafani has been a solid starting pitcher for much of his nine-year career, but over the last two seasons he's been neither healthy nor effective. In 2023 he posted a 4.88 ERA over 99.2 innings, with only two of his 19 appearances coming after the All-Star break as he was sidelined by a flexor strain. "Disco" is healthy now, though, and will be looking to bounce back in his new digs. Meanwhile, Varland is one of the more intriguing arms the Twins possess. The right-hander showed flashes in 10 starts and seven relief appearances last season for Minnesota, finishing with a 4.63 ERA and 71:17 K:BB across 68 frames. If the Twins were betting purely on upside here, Varland would be the choice. However, that's often not how these things work. DeSclafani cannot be optioned and has made just three relief appearances since 2015. Varland can be optioned and also had a dominant stretch in relief in September when he allowed just two runs with a 17:1 K:BB in 12 innings. The path of least resistance would be opening the year with DeSclafani as the fifth starter and Varland either in the bullpen or St. Paul rotation.