This article is part of our Baseball Draft Kit series.
This article will appear in the 2021 RotoWire Baseball Magazine and will receive updates throughout the offseason as the news warrants. Buy the magazine here.
The top-400 prospect rankings are for dynasty leagues. This resource is for owners who play in single-season leagues, or in keeper leagues where prospects are rarely kept. These tiers serve as a way to rank prospects based on their fantasy potential for 2020. The rankings are not perfect — there are players I would take over a player or two in the tier(s) above them — but the tiered system is a nice way to get a feel for the type of prospect in whom you are investing.
TIER ONE - Top-40 Starting Pitchers
1. Sixto Sanchez, RHP, Marlins
2. Ian Anderson, RHP, Atlanta
This is the first time in the history of this article that I have led things off with pitching. It speaks to the state of the top of the prospect ranks — eight of my top-10 prospects are hitters who probably won't debut within the first couple months of this season. It also speaks to the state of the pitching inventory in redraft leagues. Sanchez and Anderson feel like guys you would be able to get after the first 10 rounds of a 15-team league in a normal season, but the starting pitching pool dries up so fast that Anderson has been going at the 6/7 turn in 15-teamers while Sanchez has been going around the 8/9 turn. Sanchez has three pitches (four-seamer, sinker, changeup) that are as good as Anderson's lone plus pitch (changeup) and Sanchez has a better track record of commanding his pitches.
TIER TWO - Hitters With Impact Potential
3. Randy Arozarena, OF, Rays
4. Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pirates
5. Dylan Carlson, OF, Cardinals
6. Jarred Kelenic, OF, Mariners
7. Alex Kirilloff, OF, Twins
8. Leody Taveras, OF, Rangers
9. Ryan Mountcastle, 1B/OF, Orioles
10. Andrew Vaughn, 1B/DH, White Sox
In a roto league, I'd take Arozarena over the pitchers in Tier One, but I'd take the pitchers over the rest of these hitters. Kelenic, Kirilloff and Vaughn, all three of whom are top-11 overall prospects, might not open the year on the MLB roster, but they should be up within the first month of the season. The rest will open the year in the majors and with a spot in the top half of their team's lineup. Kirilloff, Mountcastle and Vaughn are the only hitters in this tier who are unlikely to help with stolen bases. For what it's worth, Andres Gimenez, Ha-seong Kim and Jo Adell don't qualify for my prospect rankings, but if they did, they'd be in this tier.
TIER THREE - Mixed-League Pitchers
11. Triston McKenzie, RHP, Cleveland
12. MacKenzie Gore, LHP, Padres
13. Nate Pearson, RHP, Blue Jays
14. Spencer Howard, RHP, Phillies
15. Michael Kopech, RHP, White Sox
16. Tarik Skubal, LHP, Tigers
17. Deivi Garcia, RHP, Yankees
18. Casey Mize, RHP, Tigers
19. Trevor Rogers, LHP, Marlins
20. A.J. Puk, LHP, Athletics
21. Tanner Houck, RHP, Red Sox
22. Dane Dunning, RHP, Rangers
Most pitchers in this tier will open the year in their team's rotation. McKenzie has the most impressive MLB track record, but he is extremely risky from a durability/innings standpoint. Gore has the highest ceiling in this tier and could shoot up draft boards with an impressive spring. Pearson, Howard, Skubal and Mize are better than they showed last season, but obviously the floor is very low with all four. I can't get a good read for how many innings we'll get out of Kopech or Garcia, and I'm unsure if either guy will throw enough strikes, but they are quite talented. Rodgers and Houck are my favorite sleepers from this tier. Puk has the talent to be the best pitcher in this tier, but the injury risk is through the roof. Dunning is fine, but I don't think he should have an ADP inside the top 300.
TIER FOUR - Flawed Mixed-League Hitters
23. Nick Madrigal, 2B, White Sox
24. Bobby Dalbec, 1B, Red Sox
25. Cristian Pache, OF, Atlanta
These three hitters could open the year as everyday big leaguers, but all three project to be huge negatives in at least two roto categories. Madrigal (shoulder) may not be ready for Opening Day, and he and Pache could hit at the bottom of their respective lineups.
TIER FIVE - Pitchers For Watch Lists
26. Clarke Schmidt, RHP, Yankees
27. Matt Manning, RHP, Tigers
28. Logan Gilbert, RHP, Mariners
29. Edward Cabrera, RHP, Marlins
30. Daniel Lynch, LHP, Royals
31. Luis Patino, RHP, Rays
32. Jackson Kowar, RHP, Royals
33. Forrest Whitley, RHP, Astros
34. Josiah Gray, RHP, Dodgers
35. Ryan Weathers, LHP, Padres
36. Shane McClanahan, LHP, Rays
37. Reid Detmers, LHP, Angels
38. Daulton Jefferies, RHP, Athletics
39. Corbin Martin, RHP, Diamondbacks
40. George Kirby, RHP, Mariners
41. Luis Garcia, RHP, Astros
42. Brendan McKay, LHP, Rays
43. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP, Blue Jays
44. Braxton Garrett, LHP, Marlins
All of these pitchers project to either open the year in the minors or on the injured list (McKay, shoulder). Most of the pitchers in the top half of this tier are highly ranked on the top 400 and have a decent chance of debuting in the first half. Of the top-100 prospects in this tier, Kirby and Woods-Richardson are the least likely to debut early in the season. Manning, Cabrera and Whitley dealt with arm injuries last season that didn't lead to surgeries, which makes them riskier in the short term. Patino and McClanahan may be used in hybrid roles in Tampa Bay. Gray is ready, but buried on a loaded Dodgers depth chart.
TIER SIX - The Catchers
45. Alejandro Kirk, C, Blue Jays
46. Ryan Jeffers, C, Twins
47. Tyler Stephenson, C, Reds
48. Joey Bart, C, Giants
49. Sam Huff, C, Rangers
50. Jonah Heim, C, Athletics
51. Keibert Ruiz, C, Dodgers
52. Luis Campusano, DH/C, Padres
53. William Contreras, C, Atlanta
54. Cal Raleigh, C, Mariners
I like Kirk and Jeffers in two-catcher leagues and I like Heim in draft-and-hold formats, but I'm probably not rostering anyone else in this tier. I expect Bart, Ruiz, Campusano, Contreras and Raleigh to open the year in the minors, and Stephenson could as well. Campusano won't enter the season eligible at catcher in most leagues. Huff and Raleigh could be net negatives due to how bad their hit tools are.
TIER SEVEN - Hitters For Watch Lists
55. Jeter Downs, 2B/SS, Red Sox
56. Jazz Chisholm, 2B/SS, Marlins
57. Jared Oliva, OF, Pirates
58. Drew Waters, OF, Atlanta
59. Royce Lewis, SS, Twins
60. Adley Rutschman, C, Orioles
61. Wander Franco, 2B/SS/3B, Rays
62. Trevor Larnach, OF/DH, Twins
63. Josh Lowe, OF, Rays
64. Seth Beer, 1B/DH, Diamondbacks
65. Julio Rodriguez, OF, Mariners
66. Brandon Marsh, OF, Angels
67. JJ Bleday, OF, Marlins
68. Josh Jung, 3B, Rangers
69. Tyler Freeman, 2B/SS, Cleveland
70. Vidal Brujan, 2B/OF, Rays
71. Nolan Jones, OF/3B/1B, Cleveland
72. Heliot Ramos, OF, Giants
73. Bobby Witt, SS/3B, Royals
74. Jarren Duran, OF, Red Sox
75. Kyle Isbel, OF, Royals
Most, if not all, of these guys will open the year in the upper levels of the minors. There are five top-10 prospects in this tier (Franco, Rodriguez, Lewis, Witt, Rutschman) and the vast majority are top-100 prospects. Most will debut at some point this season. Franco's short-term value has taken a hit this offseason, as questions have arisen about how much power he will tap into with his current launch angle, and he is dealing with biceps and shoulder inflammation. I'm betting on 2022 being the better year to have Franco shares in redraft leagues. Rutschman, Larnach, Beer, Bleday, Jung and Jones are the only players in this tier who don't have notable speed, while Oliva, Brujan, Duran and Isbel are in this tier solely because of their speed.
TIER EIGHT - Relievers
76. Garrett Crochet, LHP, White Sox
77. Sam Delaplane, RHP, Mariners
78. Emmanuel Clase, RHP, Cleveland
79. Julian Merryweather, RHP, Blue Jays
80. Demarcus Evans, RHP, Rangers
Crochet's dominance out of the bullpen and ensuing forearm strain seem to point to a long-term bullpen role. He is a major health risk in the short term. Delaplane could be the Mariners' closer of the future, but is not a lock to break camp in the majors. Clase could be next up in Cleveland if James Karinchak doesn't throw enough strikes or gets hurt. Merryweather looked like a potential long-term rotation option for Toronto, but after ending the year hurt again, it might make sense to let him blow hitters away in the late innings. Evans looks like the Rangers' closer of the future, but that may not happen until 2022.
TIER NINE - SP Streamers
81. Adbert Alzolay, RHP, Cubs
82. Keegan Akin, RHP, Orioles
83. Dean Kremer, RHP, Orioles
84. Josh Fleming, LHP, Rays
These guys aren't great, but in the right matchup they could be used in even 12- or 15-team mixers. Alzolay gets some love on prospect lists, but I think he'll be beaten up pretty badly by lefty-heavy lineups.
TIER TEN - Hitters For Deep Leagues
85. Daniel Johnson, OF, Cleveland
86. Anderson Tejeda, 2B/SS, Rangers
87. Zach McKinstry, 2B/OF/DH, Dodgers
88. Isaac Paredes, 3B, Tigers
89. Jesus Sanchez, OF, Marlins
90. Monte Harrison, OF, Marlins
91. Lewin Diaz, 1B, Marlins
92. Daz Cameron, OF, Tigers
93. Jose Garcia, SS, Reds
94. Pavin Smith, 1B, Diamondbacks
95. Sherten Apostel, 1B/3B, Rangers
96. Jake Fraley, OF, Mariners
97. Brent Rooker, OF, Twins
98. Luis Barrera, OF, Athletics
99. Rylan Bannon, 2B/3B, Orioles
100. Ka'ai Tom, OF, Athletics
101. Ryan Vilade, SS/3B/OF, Rockies
102. Taylor Walls, SS/2B/3B, Rays
103. Yusniel Diaz, OF, Orioles
104. Andy Young, 2B, Diamondbacks
105. Jaylin Davis, OF, Giants
106. Khalil Lee, OF, Royals
107. Owen Miller, 2B/3B, Cleveland
108. Bobby Bradley, DH/1B, Cleveland
109. Kevin Padlo, 3B/1B, Rays
110. Jonathan India, 3B/2B, Reds
111. Jorge Ona, OF, Padres
112. Taylor Jones, 1B, Astros
113. Colton Welker, 1B/DH, Rockies
114. Sheldon Neuse, 3B/2B/DH, Athletics
There are zero top-100 prospects in this tier and more players in this tier who are unranked than who are ranked in the top 200. Most of the players in this tier aren't very good but could get opportunities. Johnson, Tejeda, Harrison, Cameron, Garcia, Fraley, Barrera, Walls and Lee have enough speed to steal double-digit bases, but they are unlikely to hit enough or play enough to get there this season.
