Noteworthy MiLB Assignments

The biggest thing that happens from a prospect valuation standpoint in early April isn't performance, it is level assignments and injury reports. I've swept through the 30 excellent articles MLB Pipeline releases every April that include injuries to prospects and where all the top prospects have been assigned. We should have injury notes up on everyone who is reported to be hurt, and the levels on the top 400 should all be accurate (feel free to let me know if you see something amiss).

Sam Dykstra of MLB Pipeline joined me on this week's RotoWire Prospect Podcast to touch on the most noteworthy assignments and the most loaded rosters in the minors.

Aggressive Rays

Kyle Manzardo to Triple-A

Osleivis Basabe to Triple-A

Mason Auer to Double-A

Cole Wilcox to Double-A

Junior Caminero to High-A

The Rays didn't mess around with any of these assignments. It might seem obvious to send Manzardo to Triple-A, but the Rays had cover to send him back to Double-A, where he only played 30 games last year. The decision to send him to Triple-A gives me more hope that he'll be up this summer. Basabe has always had an excellent hit tool relative to his peers, but he hit zero home runs in 57 games at Double-A, so it's encouraging to see he already has one homer at Triple-A and also hit a home run in a big-league spring training game. Auer's assignment to Double-A wasn't unexpected, but it will be a huge test for his hit tool, which is his weakest tool. He is an elite athlete, but the number early on at Double-A could be ugly. Wilcox gets to skip High-A completely, which is huge, as he's now a candidate to pitch in the majors for a good chunk of 2024. Caminero is the helium prospect in all of baseball right now. It's not necessarily surprising that Caminero was sent to High-A, but like with Manzardo, the Rays had cover to send him back to Single-A, where he only played 26 games last year, and instead they pushed him up the ladder. I don't think it makes any sense to "sell high" on Caminero at this juncture, as it's hard to see him meeting much resistance until maybe Double-A or Triple-A. 

Votes Of Confidence

Mason Miller to Triple-A (OAK)

Miller made one start at Double-A, struck out eight in 3.2 innings and then got the immediate bump to Triple-A. Obviously the A's aren't competitive, but Miller, who turns 25 in August and has dealt with more than his fair share of injuries, is the type of pitcher who should be rushed up the ladder as quickly as his talent dictates.

Nick Yorke to Double-A (BOS)

We know Yorke was affected by injuries last year when he was 16 percent worse than the average hitter at High-A, but he just turned 21, so it would have been reasonable to send him back to Greenville. Instead, Boston sent the bat-first prospect to Double-A, where he already has five walks and two strikeouts in four games. This could be wishful thinking on the part of the Red Sox, or a challenge assignment to test Yorke, but it's also possible 2022 was the aberration and Yorke is about to re-establish himself as one of the best pure hitters in the minors.

Jeferson Quero to Double-A (MIL)

Quero is on the short list of prospects with the widest gaps between their real-life and fantasy value, as he has a chance to develop into an elite defensive catcher. He's a great athlete and could be a quality hitter who doesn't hurt fantasy teams but also isn't sought after. After playing just 20 games at High-A last year, it wouldn't be surprising if the 20-year-old backstop's offensive numbers look rough, at least in the early going against Double-A pitching.

Edgar Quero to Double-A (LAA)

David Calabrese to Double-A (LAA)

The Angels don't like sending hitting prospects to Tri-City because it's such a tough place to have statistical success as a hitter, so they jumped Quero and Calabrese over High-A completely. Quero is a bat-first catcher whose defense will really be tested. Even so, if he hits after this aggressive assignment, that would be really impressive. Calabrese's season line at Single-A was quite poor, but he slashed .324/.393/.494 with five home runs and 17 steals in 46 games in the second half. I was a big Calabrese fan entering the 2020 draft, and while this is a really aggressive assignment, he could shoot back up the ranks if he holds his own.

Petey Halpin to Double-A (CLE)

It's not that Halpin was bad at High-A -- he was a little better than league average (107 wRC+), but it's very clear by the way Cleveland has assigned him since taking him in the third round of the 2020 draft that they really believe in him. He turns 21 at the end of May, so a strong showing in his first tour of Double-A would speak volumes.

Kahlil Watson to High-A (MIA)

Performing well against High-A pitching won't erase all makeup concerns with Watson, but his performance stock has been on a steep upward trend since spring training. He struck out over 35 percent of the time at Single-A, but so far he has more walks (four) than strikeouts (three) in four games at High-A. This could be a situation where he hits his way back into the top 50 by midseason.

Connor Prielipp to High-A (MIN)

This isn't an aggressive assignment from an age/level standpoint, but it's a big vote of confidence for Prielipp, considering he only pitched 28 innings at Alabama due to the pandemic and Tommy John surgery. I loved him for first-year player drafts, and if he has success at High-A, he'll keep climbing the ranks.

Nelson Rada to Single-A (LAA)

Didier Fuentes to Single-A (ATL)

Here we have the youngest hitter (Rada) and youngest pitcher (Fuentes) at Single-A. Rada is known for his selective approach and improving speed and power. He won't turn 18 until late August, and we love it when players are so talented that they skip complex ball entirely, but it's to be determined whether this was an over-aggressive assignment by the Angels or whether Rada's talent is actually this advanced. With Fuentes, Baseball America reports that he's mostly working with a low-to-mid-90s fastball and a curveball, and that it was his maturity that led to the aggressive assignment to Single-A as a 17-year-old rather than dominant pure stuff. Nonetheless, success for Fuentes after this assignment will result in him getting added to the top 400 on the late-May update.

Conservative Assignments

Brett Baty to Triple-A (NYM)

It's the Mets' job to put the best players on the big-league roster and it's the manager's job to manage the emotions of everyone in the clubhouse, particularly a veteran (Eduardo Escobar) who might not like his role. Instead, they sent their best third baseman to Triple-A and put Escobar in position to take on the frustration of the fans. Baty should get the call before the end of April and should be stashed wherever possible.

Gavin Williams to Double-A (CLE)

This is probably the most confusing conservative assignment. Williams clearly isn't learning anything at Double-A other than that his stuff is great and hitters at that level are no match for him. It's not the Guardians' style to jump a player of this caliber from Double-A to the majors, so we need Williams to get the bump to Triple-A soon if he's going to force the issue this summer.

Dustin Harris to Double-A (TEX)

On the podcast, Dykstra posited that the Rangers may want the players on the loaded Frisco roster to come up together, and that Harris was good at Double-A (107 wRC+), but not quite good enough to get the bump to Triple-A as a bat-first prospect. I can buy both of those arguments, but I did think Harris would spend a decent chunk of the year in the majors, and that appears less likely than if he had gone to Triple-A right away.

Marcelo Mayer to High-A (BOS)

Brady House at Single-A (WAS)

There was a big four of prep shortstop prospects entering the 2021 draft: Mayer, House, Jordan Lawlar and Kahlil Watson. In hindsight, Jackson Merrill should have been in that mix as well. Lawlar to Double-A was an easy call, and I touched on why Watson going to High-A was a vote of confidence. But Mayer returning to High-A, where he was 27 percent better than league average in a small sample, signals that the Red Sox are going to take their time with him. House had an injury-plagued 2022, but when healthy he was great at Single-A last year and then his stats tanked when he tried to play through his back injury. The Nationals may just want House to get into a rhythm before giving him a quick bump to High-A, but he should excel while he's at Single-A.

Ivan Melendez at Single-A (ARI)

Melendez is on the 7-day injured list with a sore hand, but he will reportedly play for Single-A Visalia once healthy, which is a troubling assignment for a 23-year-old first baseman who was selected with the 43rd overall pick in the 2022 draft.

Tough Assignments

Masyn Winn to Triple-A (STL)

I'm not sure whether Winn will struggle at Triple-A, but he was just league average at Double-A last year and just turned 21, so this is a pretty aggressive assignment. The Cardinals love Winn and he projects as their shortstop of the future, just don't be alarmed if he struggles against Triple-A pitching, at least initially.

Matt McLain to Triple-A (CIN)

McLain got worse as the Double-A season went on last year, so it would have been reasonable to send him back to that level. He could climb back up the rankings with a strong showing at Triple-A, but we shouldn't be surprised if he falters.

Blake Walston to Triple-A (ARI)

I understand this assignment, I just don't expect it to go well. Walston made 21 starts at Double-A last year, but better pitchers than him have gotten torched in their first tour of the Pacific Coast League.

Nick Gonzales to Triple-A (PIT)

Like with Walston, I understand this assignment, but I expect Gonzales to be overmatched. He turns 24 in May, which is old for a top-10 draft pick who isn't that close to being big-league ready, so it's a sink or swim type of assignment.

Shielded From The PCL

Bryce Miller to Double-A (SEA)

Ben Joyce to Double-A (LAA)

As we saw with George Kirby last year, the Mariners don't mind jumping their best pitching prospects directly over the Pacific Coast League, and I expect that same maneuver to be used with Miller this summer. It's not that Tacoma is a bandbox, but the other PCL parks are very tough places to pitch, so Seattle likes to shield its top arms from that level for as long as they can. The Angels also like to shield their best pitchers from the PCL, at least until they've completely mastered Double-A. Chase Silseth, for instance, had nothing left to achieve at that level, so he's at Triple-A, but Joyce will get an easy assignment to start the year. Just don't panic over the fact that these two aren't at Triple-A yet.

Up And Coming Arms

Bubba Chandler to High-A (PIT)

Anthony Solometo to High-A (PIT)

This is a super fun 1-2 punch for Greensboro. On the one hand, we've got the power righty with a super high ceiling (Chandler), and on the other hand, we have the lanky southpaw with the Madison Bumgarner-esque delivery/deception and stuff that's trending up (Solometo). I expect both pitchers to have breakout campaigns.

Owen Murphy to Single-A (ATL)

JR Ritchie to Single-A (ATL)

It's not a given that the top prep arms get an immediate assignment to Single-A for their first full season, but Atlanta didn't mess around with Murphy and Ritchie. One or both could really pop this year.

Missing In Action

Ryan Pepiot (oblique), Bobby Miller (shoulder), Nick Nastrini (undisclosed), Max Meyer (elbow surgery), Sixto Sanchez (shoulder surgery), Alexander Canario (ankle, shoulder), James Triantos (knee surgery), Ed Howard (hip), Colson Montgomery (oblique), Sean Burke (shoulder), Jared Kelley (foot), Noah Schultz (strained forearm), Adael Amador (undisclosed), Drew Waters (oblique), Matt Allan (elbow surgery), Griff McGarry (oblique), Andrew Painter (elbow), Nikau Pouaka-Grego (torn ACL), Dylan Lesko (elbow), Vaun Brown (knee surgery), Marco Luciano (back), Reggie Crawford (elbow), Will Bednar (back), Jairo Pomares (quad), Spencer Miles (back), Landen Roupp (undisclosed), Aaron Zavala (elbow), Brock Jones (quad), Evan Reifert (shoulder), Colby White (elbow), Brandon Barriera (shoulder), Hagen Danner (forearm), Robert Hassell (hand), Cade Cavalli (elbow), Cole Henry (TOS), Landon Sims (elbow), Ivan Melendez (hand), Jorge Barrosa (hamstring), Cole Phillips (elbow), Adam Maier (elbow), Seth Johnson (elbow), Mikey Romero (back), Brainer Bonaci (visa issues), Wilyer Abreu (hamstring), Elly De La Cruz (hamstring), Christian Encarnacion-Strand (back), Chase Petty (elbow), Royce Lewis (knee), Marco Raya (shoulder), Austin Martin (elbow), Matt Canterino (elbow), Austin Wells (rib), Luis Gil (elbow), Carson Coleman (elbow), Luis Serna (shoulder), Matt Sauer (forearm), Freddy Tarnok (arm), Gunnar Hoglund (biceps), George Valera (wrist), Edwin Arroyo (hip)