MLB: Prospect Mailbag 4/27/22

Since I spend several hours prepping for the mailbag podcast episodes I do for the Prospect Podcast on the last Wednesday of every month, I decided to turn that prep into an article in addition to just using it for the podcast. Let me know what you think of this format and whether you want to continue to see it going forward. 

You can listen to the podcast here or subscribe on your podcast app by searching "RotoWire Prospect Podcast".

As I've mentioned before, the next update to the top 400 prospect rankings will be at the end of May, but this mailbag content should help provide a snapshot of which prospects are trending up and down.

Adam Balan: Luis Matos or Marco Luciano… compare their ceilings and floors?

Luciano will either be a three-category or a four-category shortstop, depending on how the hit tool shakes out. Absolute ceiling would be Eloy Jimenez production at shortstop, floor would be a Paul DeJong type of career. Matos brings the five-category upside — he could be Bo Bichette in the outfield. Floor would be a Manuel Margot type of career.

Dan: Are you reading much into Marco Luciano's early success? See him rebounding after falling in rankings this offseason?

It's been great, about as good as could have been expected, but I want to see it over a larger sample. He's super streaky. But yes, trending back towards the top 20, if he's not already there.

Benny Dykstra: When is Triston Casas getting the call, and is he a top 20 1B when he gets it? (Lots of questions on Casas)

He could get the call in a couple weeks if Bobby Dalbec keeps struggling. My initial guess was that he'd be up in late-June or early-July. Once up, he could reasonably perform like Brandon Belt with the upside for more and the downside for significant growing pains.

Eric Samulski: With Leody Taveras and Bubba Thompson off to strong starts, could we see either get a chance in TEX this season?

Thompson has 19 strikeouts and zero walks at Triple-A, so I think he's irrelevant for now. He could get the call, but he wouldn't perform well. Taveras also isn't walking much, but he's at least not striking out a ton either. I'd expect him to get a look in a month or two, but I wouldn't bank on him hitting for a high average.

BrocNessMonster: What about Nick Pratto? Is he stuck behind Vinnie Pasquantino?

I know Pratto is the one on the 40-man roster and he's the better defensive 1B, and the Royals aren't the smartest organization, but anyone can see that of the two, Pasquantino is the only one with a chance of hitting big-league pitching right now. Worth noting that Carlos Santana might be coming out of his slump. 

Todd D: ETA on Juan Yepez?

Yepez is the type of guy I could see them bringing up for a doubleheader or something or just for a couple weeks to add some depth and then send him back down. I don't think he's got impact potential this season.

Bob May: Do you think James Wood is the real deal?

He has blown away my expectations so far this season. A lot of prospects have scuffled after the jump from complex ball to Single-A, so that makes it even more impressive.

DrOctagon Cards: Level of worry about Reginald Preciado's atrocious start?

Very significant concerns about Reginald Preciado, I'd drop him in leagues where 200-250 prospects are rostered.

Jon: What is Jordan Groshans major league position gonna be?  Why do teams like to sign players like Albert Pujols and block guys like Yepez?  Ceddane Rafaela, Mookie Betts 2.0?

Yepez isn't a good enough real-life prospect (in my opinion) to worry about blocking. Groshans could be a second baseman who plays third base and shortstop when guys are injured — he could also be trade bait this summer. Betts was an elite statistical prospect who walked more than he struck out at several stops, but Rafaela is arguably the top pop-up prospect of the year. I'd value him as a borderline top-100 prospect right now.

Anthony Stoesz: Does Matt Brash K/BB normalize in the MLB or does he risk being sent down?

The scouting report (don't swing) seems to be out on Brash, so he needs to adjust back (if he can). That breaking ball is so glorious, I still think he eventually settles in as an effective starter, it might just take longer than we hoped.

Richard Sands: I'm in a prospect's dynasty league with a "win now" mode. Who should be my highest waiver priorities: Kyle Stowers, Kameron Misner, Brendon Davis, Zack Gelof, Braden Shewmake, Aaron Sabato, or Aaron Bracho? Who gets the first call to the majors?

Definitely Kyle Stowers. He'll be up first and I think he's the best prospect of this bunch, given where Gelof's K-rate is.

Trader Andy: How does Miguel Vargas compare to your boy Josh Jung?  What's his real ETA and would he get called up first or Michael Busch? (Lots of questions on Busch)

Vargas is pretty similar to Jung in many ways. A healthy Jung would already be in the majors, and I think he could have been productive right away, but if we fast forward to when Jung is fully healthy this offseason, Vargas will probably be more ready to hit big-league pitching. 

As for Busch, he has only played second base and designated hitter this year, while Vargas has played second, third and first. Additionally, Vargas was the one sent to Triple-A, where he has been fine, while Busch was sent back to Double-A after he seemingly already mastered that level last year (and Vargas is two years younger than Busch). I don't think the Dodgers will be in a rush to bring either guy up, especially with Vargas not on the 40-man roster.

Ryan: If you put out FYPD rankings today, where would you put Matt McLain? The first taste of pro ball seems extremely encouraging.

I already had McLain ranked aggressively for FYPD (sixth), but he'd be a top-three guy for me at this point. Brady House and Henry Davis have also been awesome, among the top guys.

ChzBeef: Any update on why Ian Lewis isn't in Single-A?

I've heard that it's not injury related, and I'd expect him to be sent to an affiliate sometime in the coming weeks.

Chris Valensi: Thoughts on the slow starts for some of the blue chip prospects that broke camps with their big league teams? (Spencer Torkelson, Bobby Witt, Julio Rodriguez, Reid Detmers, etc). And reasonable to expect Adley Rutschman is up by early June, after a few weeks in AAA? 

None of these starts should be seen as surprising. I think the biggest take away among the hitters is that Julio Rodriguez now projects as a 30-steal guy at peak (I had him as a 15-20 steal guy preseason). Rodriguez is going to be an absolute star. Torkelson has actually been as good as I would have hoped. Witt has been bad, but not in a way that should be all that surprising — he was getting overdrafted. I'm concerned a little about Detmers' offspeed stuff — his slider and curveball haven't been the wipeout offerings they were last year, and he needs those to be money pitches. It's a small sample, however. And yes, Rutschman should be up with Grayson Rodriguez in late-May/early-June.

Cam Anderson: The Nationals have two guys in the top 54 of your list and then nobody else in the top 200. How much of that is org based, i.e. lack of trust in development vs. individual flaws with the players. You can make this question more general to all teams.

I don't view the Nats as a bad developmental org. This is kind of the natural progression of a team that was contending for rings and has now entered a bit of a rebuild. Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Gray didn't qualify as prospects, but you could still think of them that way. House has been awesome, so that's nice. 

The Rockies are the main team I worry about when it comes to player development, but the Royals and Padres have recently struggled to develop starting pitching.

Cale Loken: With Jazz Chisholm's hot start, is he in the conversation for being a top 25 dynasty player?

Yeah, I'd value him that way — he was already a top 35 guy for me coming into the year.

Brent: Any news on Misael Urbina's visa situation? Will he be joining Fort Myers anytime soon?

I wouldn't expect an update on this until the issue is resolved.

Kenny: Is Ezequiel Tovar going to be Tim Anderson in Colorado?

That'd be fun! In all seriousness, I'm very impressed with how Tovar has handled this aggressive assignment. He has helped his dynasty stock as much as any prospect in the early going.

Al Scherer: What do you make of Andrew Painter's start?

He's a big power arm with big-time stuff, and Low-A hitters simply can't handle that. This is one of those situations where it's great if you got him in your FYPD or picked him up off waivers, but don't trade for him. There's still several years for things to go wrong before he reaches the majors.

Ian Stratta: For guys like Bryson Stott and Huascar Ynoa, what size leagues are you considering dropping. I have both in a 20-team small bench league and it's going to be tough to rationalize keeping them. 

In a redraft league, you could drop both of them for players that can help you now. In dynasty, I'd even be OK moving on from Ynoa if there's someone you really like available. I was never high on Ynoa as a prospect — he peaked at No. 203 overall in 2018 — and didn't buy in on him this year. I'm kicking myself for moving Stott up my prospect rankings after it seemed like he was going to break camp, but I was never that big on him either, relative to the rest of the industry.

Max Arterburn: Which High-A & AA hot starts are most believable, of these five: Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Matthew Lugo, Ceddanne Rafaela, Esteury Ruiz, Jerar Encarnacion

I'd rank them Rafaela, Encarnacion-Strand, Ruiz, Encarnacion, Lugo, but they've all got promising characteristics to their starts and are trending to being added to the top-400.

Jeremy Hansen: When do you buy back in on former top 400 guys like Esteury Ruiz or Cal Mitchell?

Ruiz is doing something he never came close to doing before, walking more than he is striking out. You want to be careful when a guy is repeating a level, like he is at Double-A, but he's got my attention. Mitchell has a 41.7 Hard% at Triple-A with an excellent batted-ball profile and excellent plate skills. He's checking all the boxes so far and he's still pretty young (just turned 23).

First to Third: Updates on Cristian Hernandez

Nothing to update. He played in the DSL last year and will open in the complex league this year. That's standard procedure. He'll be the most exciting prospect in that league and could get to Single-A by the end of the year.

Gabriel Garcia: Corbin Carroll looks incredible, are he and Robert Hassell far off in terms of skill set? Are we looking at 2 potential top 5 prospects, or are these two different caliber of prospects with different caliber ceilings?

The main difference is Carroll's speed (at least a grade higher than Hassell's), but I could see Carroll being the No. 1 overall prospect in short order and Hassell being top five fairly soon as well. Excellent young hitters.

Dan: Seeing a lot of crazy high K% for top hitting prospects early on (Brennen Davis, Kahlil Watson, Bobby Witt, Julio Rodriguez, many others). Red flags or do you write these off as guys settling in at a new level, with adjustments coming?

Orange flag with Davis and Witt — not surprising, necessarily, but also not ideal. I expect those two to be better over the next month. Zero concerns with Rodriguez. I'd say red flag with Watson, but not one that will push him too far down the ranks, it's just clearly a bigger weakness in the profile than I was expecting it to be at this level — compare him to Brady House, for instance.

David Regan: Every year, the Dodgers graduate top talent and other talent steps up into their top 10. Who are a couple guys in the 15-20 range that could vault into top 5 status over the next year?

Mostly on the pitching side, Maddux Bruns and Nick Nastrini from last year's draft class. I think Wilman Diaz could break out this year in his stateside debut, and Jose Ramos is a little old for the level, but he continues to impress at Single-A.

Johnny Millionaire: Talk about the Dodgers pitching pipeline; Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot & Maddux Bruns all seem to have extreme upside. Can you review their stuff and command? When do you see them debuting?

From a total package standpoint, Landon Knack is my favorite, but he's building up in extended spring training from an undisclosed injury. I don't think Miller is going to debut as a starter until 2023, this year is all about building up his innings, something he has struggled with. Pepiot has excellent stuff, but I think he fits best as a multi-inning reliever, Bruns has monster stuff but is three years away.

Simon P: Is LAD prospect James Outman too old for his level? Will we ever see him in the bigs or time to drop him? And what about the Pirates? They have so many scrubs on the active roster, might we see an influx of prospects later this year? Any catch your eye? Sleepers?

Yeah, for Outman to be striking out this much back at Double-A, I'd drop him. He's on the 40-man roster because of his defense and power/speed tools, but the hit tool is a problem. I still like Diego Castillo, who is already up, and I think Oneil Cruz is still worth a stash despite the slow start (the weather in the Midwest has been awful), but Cal Mitchell is the big sleeper.

Banksy: What do you think of this trade in Dynasty Pts 10 teamer: Vladimir Guerrero, Bo Bichette, Jo Adell, Nolan Gorman, Kris Bryant -for- Juan Soto, Rafael Devers, Ozzie Albies, Willy Adames

I always focus on the big leaguers/elite prospects in a trade like this. I don't think Adell or Gorman qualify as elite prospects, and I'm not a big Kris Bryant fan long term, even in Colorado. So I'd take the Soto side.

Todd D: Who gets the call first? Max Meyer, Bobby Miller, or Hayden Wesneski?

Probably Meyer if they all stay healthy. That said, I don't think any of the three will be up as quickly as we'd like them to be, given the team contexts.

Todd D: Roansy Contreras is clearly the best pitcher currently in the Pirates organization. Why is he not starting for them? I assume he is on an innings limit.

Max Margolis: How good is Roansy Contreras capable of being this year? Could we get something in the neighborhood of 2021 McClanahan?

Yeah, he's on an innings limit and getting stretched out in the minors, but they also want to see what their lesser guys have. You're not learning anything about those guys at Triple-A. They'd like at least a couple to emerge as long-term back-end starters. 

He's quite good, but he's not McClanahan good — doesn't have as deep of a repertoire or that caliber of fastball, not to mention handedness.

Matt Haas: Thoughts on Trevor Larnach going forward? Seems like the approach hasn't been the same since the layoff.

Yeah he kind of seems to have hit a wall after Double-A. Was always older and struck out a lot, so not a guy you need to be super patient with.

John Dobos: Carlos Hernandez, how does he look so far (under the hood)? Taylor Ward an add in 12 teamers? Any prospects in your top 50 that you are disappointed/worried about? Cody Morris expectations after his latest injury.

I dropped Hernandez in AL LABR, so that should tell you all you need to know. Ward an add in any format, really, given the playing time and production. I'm not super worried, but Nick Gonzales, Dustin Harris and Bryson Stott have failed to impress. Morris' injury isn't supposed to be a terrible one by shoulder injury standards, so I'm just waiting to see whether he can return on time. We can react once June/July gets here, if he's progressing or has had a setback. 

Steve G: You had Masyn Winn pretty high at the end of last year and he has really picked it up. Seems like he could vault into top 20ish prospects by the end of the year. Do you agree and should I buy now and drop pratto who I know u are down on?

I wouldn't say top-20 is likely, but it's possible, given his tools. I'd drop Pratto for him in dynasty. 

Toolsy: Nolan Gorman is getting a lot of buzz. He still strikes out a lot and has defensive issues at 2B. I believe he will struggle if called up, do you agree?

I agree. The strikeouts are more concerning than the home runs are impressive. I'm predicting that he'll be a nice post-hype guy next year.

Andrew Mason: Do you think Ricky Tiedemann will be jumping into your top 400? Has looked pretty good so far albeit needs to cut down on walks. Was curious if you have seen him or heard anything from others who have seen him in person?

He has been very impressive, minus the command/control issues. Fastball/changeup combo will give lower-level hitters fits, but he probably needs to develop the slider or curveball a bit more to have upper-level success, but still ahead of schedule.

Toosly: Royce Lewis has looked great so far. Do you think the Twins call him up? Is he playing another position? 

Steven P: Royce Lewis vs. Jose Miranda as fantasy prospects overall?

Keith Schulte: Where are you projecting Royce Lewis to rank on your end of May edition of the Top 400 after his fast start this year?

I touched on these guys in last week's article, but Lewis has easily passed Miranda, if he were ever behind him. Lewis can play anywhere, but so far he has just played shortstop. I don't think they're going to rush him up, so Miranda could be up first, even though he's the opposite of Lewis defensively. Lewis is a top-15 prospect at this point.

AttemptingEthics: Can you share thoughts on how "for real" are the crazy hot starts of young players like Emmanuel Rodriguez, Masyn Winn, Alexander Ovalles, Ceddanne Rafaela, Joshua Mears, Etc? What should we be looking for to find the next Juan Soto who lights up early?

None of them are fully "for real" but with the exception of Mears, they're showing improvements in key areas, namely walks and strikeouts. Winn has the most upward mobility of those five. I'm still not sold on Mears due to the strikeouts, although his power is very impressive.

Mark Louis: It is reported the Reds are moving Rece Hinds to the OF. I figure this is due to his knee injury last year. Is he a cut bait player from my 12 team NL only keeper league where every team holds seven minors.

I've been quite high on Hinds, and I liked that move to the outfield, but yeah, he's striking out almost 50 percent of the time. You can probably find a better guy to roster.

Brothersjudd: Should we be worried that the Royals coaching system-wide is so bad that it ruins prospects--both pitching (which Eno Sarris covered) but also hitting (Nick Pratto, MJ Melendez, etc.)?

I'd be concerned, especially with their inability to develop pitching, given how many talented pitchers they've drafted in recent years. If I were another team, I'd be trying to trade for guys like Carlos Hernandez, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch, etc… They still have some good stories like Pasquantino and I'm still a believer in Melendez and Kyle Isbel, but they're probably a bottom-five developmental org.

Scott Courlander: Jasson Dominguez 😢

Yeah, not good.

John McKecknie: Will the John Means injury speed up the timeline for Kyle Bradish or Grayson Rodriguez? And if Trey Mancini gets dealt at the deadline, would either Colton Cowser or Kyle Stowers get a look?

Tom Hotaling: Will Kyle Bradish get the call up before Grayson Rodriguez?

Stowers will get a look regardless later this summer at the rate he's going. Cowser won't be up until next year at the earliest. The Orioles aren't going to rush the timeline on any of their guys (that'd be too much fun for the fanbase), but Bradish and Rodriguez are both trending toward May or early-June debuts. I wouldn't be surprised if Bradish was up first, since he's already on the 40-man roster.

Mike Greer: Can you touch on Daniel Espino and if he is due for a bump in your next updates? Between the FG article labeling him a unicorn and the encouraging, yet limited results, I just wanted to get a current pulse check on his value.

He's basically as good as a 21-year-old right-handed pitching prospect can possibly be who has made three starts at Double-A, throws really hard and has never thrown 100 innings in a season. How you choose to value that player is up to each individual. His ceiling is the best pitcher in baseball, but a lot can go wrong with a prospect like this as well.

Jeffrey Thomas: Kyle Harrison or Taj Bradley? Bonus: Eury Perez or Daniel Espino, rank all four careers long term?

I'm not going to rank all four on their careers long term, it'll come down to which guys stay healthy. But Bradley is last of the four as his third pitch is the worst of the four. They all have ace upside, which is something I don't throw around often. Espino and Harrison have been the most impressive thus far this season, but I adore all four of them and just hope two or three of them stay healthy.

Simon P: What do you make of Drey Jameson? He is having himself a hell of a year so far...small sample, I know. What do you see long term for him, starter or reliever, and when do you think he can be up?

Love Jameson, he could be off to a better start. I think he gets to the big leagues around July and I think he's a starter long term. He's still pretty underrated.

Nick Durazo: What's with Nick Gonzales's ridiculous K rate?

It's not that much higher than it was at High-A, and he's walking a ton, so he might just be too passive right now. I'd like to see where those rates stabilize to in about a month.

Churlayla: Dustin Harris and Evan Carter. F*** yeah!!! or better wait and see?

Let's wait and see. Harris is striking out way more than I thought he would at Double-A, and Carter still isn't getting to much power in games. Carter could be a low-power leadoff hitter who gets on base at a high clip and steals bases, but I could also see him evolve a little as a hitter in the next couple years. I expect Harris to improve as the season goes on, but his stock is down. 

Dan O'Dell: At what point in a season does a slow start have meaning? Luis Matos/Anthony Volpe/Reginald Preciado, etc. Do you have concerns with any top 100 guys this quickly or do you hold that they will all get going soon enough. Curious of any indicators you look at.

Strikeouts, walks, how challenging the assignment was, are all indicators. Rookie to Single-A and Triple-A to the majors have become massive gaps in competition. I touched on Preciado earlier. I'm not worried about Matos, I'm going to give Volpe a while before I really start to worry.

Savages In The Box: Who is Paul McIntosh and should we be paying attention to him now?

Craig Mish mentioned him to me off air after out podcast a couple weeks ago. The Marlins think they really found something in him. It sucks that he's a catcher, but he's a legitimate prospect.

Less than Dave: I just wanna know who looks like they're ready to produce in the MLB this year... Who I should keep an eye on?

Triston Casas, Vinnie Pasquantino, Cal Mitchell, Caleb Kilian, Kyle Bradish

Notorious D.A.D.: Luis Garcia tearing up AAA at 22. If prospect eligible, where would he slot in? How about Isaac Paredes as well? I feel like we disregard young players once they hit their 130 ABs even if they are the same age or younger than other prospect eligible guys…

They'd both be borderline top-100. The Rays definitely went after Paredes for a reason. It's frustrating that the Nationals are keeping Garcia at Triple-A, but I could see both guys having success in the majors later this season, but they're at best four-category guys.

Dom Ernandez: How much does Pete Crow-Armstrong move up your rankings with your next update? He seems like a good "James Anderson Guy" Any good comps that you can think of? Thanks!

I love Crow-Armstrong, he's actually not that different from Robert Hassell from a tools standpoint. His power potential has always been underrated, and I do gravitate toward those guys, where the power is perceived as the weakest tool even though it's not going to be weak.

Hamiltron: Could Corbin Carrol hit his way to a mid-season call-up? Is Orelvis Martinez - Joey Gallo 2.0 without the walks? Does Jordan Walker have too much swing and miss to become an uber prospect?

Carroll seems like a breaks-camp-with-the-team guy next year, based on where the Diamondbacks are in their competitive cycle, but it's not impossible that he could force his way up this summer. I've always struggled with where to rank Martinez, because I absolutely see that comp. I usually move him down, then he goes nuts for a few months and I move him up, and then doubt creeps back in. He'll have red arrows next to his name on the next update. I'm not worried at all about Walker, however. He is absolutely an uber prospect. He is handling an extremely aggressive assignment, as I outlined here.

Matt: With respect to a dynasty minor league draft, would you aim for younger prospects with a higher "ceiling" (i.e Daniel Espino or Fransisco Alvarez) or players that are more major league ready (i.e. Matt Brash or Joe Ryan etc)

Generally the latter based on draft value, but you want to have a blend. Focus on the value and your confidence/excitement in the player over the type of prospect with respect to ETA or perceived "ceiling".

Aaron Bennett: Thoughts on Cade Cavalli's rough start this year?

His command and consistency just hasn't been there. I'm getting minor recollections of when Archie Bradley was an elite prospect for a few years, where the stuff was crazy but the command was never quite there. We have to remember, the bust rate on pitching prospects is still extreme, and not just for health reasons.

Ben Pernick: Are you concerned about MJ Melendez's rough start given his struggles previous to 2021?

Honestly, not really. He's got a .167 BABIP. I think he might just be pressing to try to force a promotion. I probably ranked him a tad too high on the last update, but he might be a buy-low right now.

Matt Maison: Is Royber Salinas legit?

The stuff is legit, but I'm getting Brusdar Graterol vibes from his body, which isn't ideal. It's not like he's got an Alek Manoah frame where he's always going to be a big boy, he could stand to lose 20 pounds, which would help him avoid dealing with back issues and could improve his command/ability to repeat his delivery.

Peter Muehlenkamp: Reds fans need something positive to talk about… with all of Reds' trades and recent graduations of Greene and Lodolo, can you give us the new Reds Top 10 prospects?  And where does their overall system now rank?

Matt McLain and Elly De La Cruz is a pretty nice 1-2 on the position player side, but the system definitely lacks depth. I also think Nick Lodolo is a must-target in trading leagues right now. He's the real deal.