This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC returns to the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, Sept. 23 for UFC Vegas 79. In the main event, Rafael Fiziev takes on Mateusz Gamrot in what should be a fan-friendly lightweight scrap.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop, and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Welterweight
Bryan Battle (9-2) vs. AJ Fletcher (10-3)
On the main card, I'm backing Bryan Battle to get the win over AJ Fletcher in a welterweight matchup.
Battle has been solid in the UFC, and at welterweight, he has shown off some legitimate one-punch KO power. Fletcher, meanwhile, has had a disappointing UFC tenure, as he's 1-2.
A big reason why I like Battle in this matchup is due to his reach advantage, as he has a massive, 10-inch edge, which he will be able to use to keep Fletcher away from him. Fletcher will want to try and grapple, but Battle's reach should be able to keep him at a distance, so he'll be able to piece him up.
Battle was controlled by Rinat Fakhretdinov, so that is a concern. But, Fletcher isn't a better grappler than him, so I expect it to play out on the feet and Battle to consistently land more strikes en route a decision win.
UFC Vegas 79 Best Bet: Bryan Battle (-175)
Weight Class: Welterweight
Tim Means (32-15-1) vs. Andre Fialho (16-7)
Tim Means vs. Andre Fialho should be a banger, but I like Means as the underdog in this spot.
The way to beat Means is to submit him, but the problem for Fialho is he's a striker, which lays right into Means' game. Fialho and Means are both on three-fight losing streaks, so this is do-or-die for both of them.
Fialho's chin is a concern for me, as he's been knocked out in all three of his last fights, while Means is pretty durable and can take a shot. On the feet, Means throws more volume, while Fialho's striking defense is bad (statistically, he absorbs more strikes than he lands).
Fialho's cardio is also a concern, so I expect Means to be able to pick apart Fialho for three rounds and get a clear-cut decision.
UFC Vegas 79 Best Bet: Tim Means (+145)
Weight Class: Strawweight
Marina Rodriguez (16-3-2) vs. Michelle Waterson-Gomez (18-11)
Marina Rodriguez and Michelle Waterson-Gomez are having a rematch, and I'm backing Rodriguez to win by decision once again.
Rodriguez and Waterson-Gomez headlined a Fight Night card in May of 2021, and it was the Brazilian who cruised to a five-round decision. The fight was on short notice and at 125lbs, so perhaps that changes some things.
In the original fight, Rodriguez was able to stuff Waterson-Gomez's takedown attempts and piece her up on the feet. In a three-round fight, I expect the same thing to happen, as there's no reason to back Waterson-Gomez -- who's currently on a three-fight losing skid -- in this spot.
UFC Vegas 79 Best Bet: Marina Rodriguez by decision (-155)
Weight Classes: Strawweight & Middleweight
Mizuki Inoue (14-6) vs. Hannah Goldy (6-3)
Jacob Malkoun (7-2) vs. Cody Brundage (8-5)
For my parlay, I'm backing Mizuki Inoue and Jacob Malkoun to get their hands raised at UFC Vegas 79.
Inoue is set for her first fight since 2020, which is a bit of a concern, but she gets an easy matchup in Hannah Goldy who's 1-3 in the UFC. Goldy's lone win is over Emily Whitmire, who isn't in the UFC anymore, while her losses to Molly McCann, Miranda Granger and Diana Belbita haven't aged well, either. Inoue should be able to keep this fight standing and cruise to a decision win here.
In the other leg, I'm backing Jacob Malkoun to get the win over Cody Brundage, who's taking this fight on short notice. Malkoun is not the most exciting fighter on the roster, but he's a dominant wrestler who should be able to control Brundage on the ground here to win a decision.
UFC Vegas 79 Best Bets: Mizuki Inoue & Jacob Malkoun parlay (-164)
UFC Vegas 79 Best Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's Noche UFC best bets:
- Bryan Battle (-175)
- Tim Means (+145)
- Marina Rodriguez by decision (-155)
- Mizuki Inoue & Jacob Malkoun parlay (-164)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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