This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 288 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Daniel Santos (10-2-0) v. Johnny Munoz Jr. (12-2-0)
Daniel Santos - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 11 wins
Johnny Munoz - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a lower-level UFC fight, and I would not be surprised to see either guy win. Santos should be slightly better everywhere except for maybe power. I expect him to look for takedowns early and hunt for an early sub.
UFC 288 Pick: Santos
Joseph Holmes (8-3-0) v. Claudio Ribeiro (10-3-0)
Joseph Holmes - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 80" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 8 wins
Claudio Ribeiro - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Both guys are coming in from losses and hungry for a win. They each have the power to end this instantly, but this fight should come down to whether or not Holmes can record takedowns. If he can, he could snatch the neck of Ribeiro and win by submission. If he cannot, Ribeiro likely knocks him out, as all 10 of his wins have come that way.
UFC 288 Pick: Ribeiro
Zhalgas Zhumagulov (14-8-0) v. Rafael Estevam (11-0-0)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 66" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
Rafael Estevam - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Zhumagulov was once considered a top prospect in the UFC but has now lost five of six UFC fights and could be facing his papers (though he definitely didn't get any help from the judges in a few questionable split decisions). Estevam is making his UFC debut and could not ask for a better matchup. He should be better everywhere and finish this fight early.
UFC 288 Pick: Estevam
Ikram Aliskerov (13-1-0) v. Phil Hawes (12-4-0)
Ikram Aliskerov - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 76" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 13 wins
Phil Hawes - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 10 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Hawes started 3-0 in the UFC but has since gone 1-2 and will be looking to right the ship against the debuting Aliskerov. He will have an edge on the feet but likely struggles if it hits the mat. Aliskerov can keep this close on the feet but will have a considerable advantage on the mat. I expect him to shoot early and suffocate Hawes until he finishes him.
UFC 288 Pick: Aliskerov
Parker Porter (13-8-0) v. Braxton Smith (5-1-0)
Parker Porter - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 8 finishes in 12 wins
Braxton Smith - Height: 5'9" - Reach: N/A - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 5 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight goes one of two ways. Smith rushes forward and knocks Porter out quickly, or Porter avoids the power and piles up volume after Smith tires out. Smith has never been outside the first round, and I would expect him to have little cardio left after it.
UFC 288 Pick: Smith
Marina Rodriguez (16-2-2) v. Virna Jandiroba (18-3-0)
Marina Rodriguez - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 65" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 16 wins
Virna Jandiroba - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 64" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: Rodriguez looks to have lost a step over the course of her last two fights. She is still an excellent striker, and her get-up game improves with each fight. If this were going to be 15 minutes of striking, I would be on her all day. However, I expect Jandiroba to succeed with level changes and takedowns, potentially finding a submission by wrapping up Rodriguez's neck. It's risky, but I like the dog in this one.
UFC 288 Pick: Jandiroba
Khaos Williams (13-3-0) v. Rolando Bedoya (14-1-0)
Khaos Williams - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 13 wins
Rolando Bedoya - Height: 5'`11" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: You can argue that Bedoya has earned this UFC debut, but the matchup against Williams is a considerable step up in competition. His best bet would be getting the fight to the mat, but Williams has excellent takedown defense. Williams should dominate the striking, and I would expect him to control the pace. Without a finish, I do not expect this fight to score well for DFS purposes.
UFC 288 Pick: Williams
Devin Clark (14-7-0) v. Kennedy Nzechukwu (11-3-0)
Devin Clark - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 5 finishes in 14 wins
Kennedy Nzechukwu - Height: 6'5" - Reach: 83" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect most of this fight to take place on the feet. Clark is a far better wrestler/grappler, but Nzechukwu has excellent takedown defense. Nzechukwu could also look for a takedown, but he likely controls the pace of this fight on the feet. This is another fight I would not expect a high score from without an early finish.
UFC 288 Pick: Nzechukwu
Drew Dober (26-11-0) v. Matt Frevola (10-3-1)
Drew Dober - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 26 wins
Matt Frevola - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: This is an excellent fight to target for DFS, as I expect it to be a thriller that could end early. Both fighters have considerable power and should be throwing heavy right out of the gate. With an average fight time of eight minutes between both fighters, this one should be over by mid-second round, backed up by an Odds to Finish mark of (-250) or greater. That said, Dober has the better chin with more experience and is my pick to win.
UFC 288 Pick: Dober
Kron Gracie (5-1-0) v. Charles Jourdain (13-6-1)
Kron Gracie - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" - Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 5 wins
Charles Jourdain - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 69" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Gracie is making his return after nearly four years away. He is an entertaining fighter, but it is difficult to trust anyone after that long of a layoff. Jourdain is one of the toughest fighters in the UFC and will bring the heat in this one. He is on a tough two-fight skid and will be hungry to win. I expect him to come out hot and shut Gracie down early.
UFC 288 Pick: Jourdain
Movsar Evloev (16-0-0) v. Diego Lopes (21-5-0)
Movsar Evloev - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 16 wins
Diego Lopes - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 18 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: Lopes is making a short-notice debut and will have an extremely tall task facing Evloev. His best chance is to clip him early and record a knockout, which is very unlikely. As a result, Evloev will likely be the highest-owned fighter on the slate, and his DFS score should smash value.
UFC 288 Pick: Evloev
Jessica Andrade (24-10-0) v. Xiaonan Yan (16-3-0)
Jessica Andrade - Height: 5'1" - Reach: 62" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 24 wins
Xiaonan Yan - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be close for a round or so, then I would expect Andrade to take over. She will be better everywhere, including a considerable advantage on the mat. Andrade should have her way with Xiaonan, and I would not be shocked to see her finish this early.
UFC 288 Pick: Andrade
Belal Muhammad (22-3-0) v. Gilbert Burns (22-5-0)
Belal Muhammad - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 6 finishes in 22 wins
Gilbert Burns - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 22 wins
DFS Perspective: On the feet, I expect this to be close. Muhammed has the technical striking and volume, while Burns has the power and speed. The wrestling between both should be close, but the grappling edge goes to Burns. This fight is as close as its gets and will come down to who executes their game plan better. I favor Burns to win at least three of five rounds, provided he succeeds with takedowns.
UFC 288 Pick: Burns
Aljamain Sterling (22-3-0) v. Henry Cejudo (16-2-0)
Aljamain Sterling - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 22 wins
Henry Cejudo - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 64" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Cejudo returns to the Octagon for his first fight in three years. He has always been an excellent fighter with a considerable skill set, but his layoff worries me. Sterling will be looking to defend his belt for the third time and should have an edge just about everywhere this fight goes, particularly with volume and grappling. Given the layoff of Cejudo, I expect Sterling to use his size advantage to control this fight and keep him where he wants him.
UFC 288 Pick: Sterling
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC 288 DraftKings preview, or play around with your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
