This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
Julio Arce (17-5-0) v. Daniel Santos (10-1-0)
Fight Analysis: Arce has alternated wins and losses over his past six fights, with the most recent being a tough knockout loss early in the second round. He is a well-rounded fighter with moderate volume, solid power, and great grappling. Santos will be making his UFC debut after two years off. He looks to be a solid striker with decent power, high volume, and excellent spinning attacks.
DFS Perspective: Arce should be better everywhere this fight goes. Santos has not fought in two years due to canceled fights, and it is hard to say how much rust will be there.
My Pick: Arce
Piera Rodriguez (7-0-0) v. Kay Hansen (7-5-0)
Fight Analysis: Rodriguez earned her UFC contract and debut after a string of successful fights in other promotions and a dominant decision win on the Contender Series. She is a solid striker with high volume, great movement, and complimenting wrestling. Hansen is riding a two-fight losing streak after a unanimous decision loss in her most recent fight. She is an excellent grappler with great footwork, solid takedowns, and decent striking.
DFS Perspective: Hansen is dropping back to her normal weight class and should find more success with her wrestling here. If she can get this fight to the mat early and often, she will cruise to a decision win.
My Pick: Hansen
Anthony Hernandez (8-2-0, 1NC) v. Josh Fremd (9-2-0)
Fight Analysis: Hernandez evened up his UFC record at 2-2 after a dominant win that ended with a second-round guillotine last time out. He is a technical striker with excellent pressure, significant power, and decent grappling. Fremd is another fighter making his debut after a winning run in other promotions. He looks like a fantastic striker with a high motor, immense power, and decent wrestling.
DFS Perspective: The longer the fight goes, the more I favor Hernandez, as he has more tools and better cardio. I like Fremd early on and can see him locking up a knockout if Hernandez is not careful.
My Pick: Fremd
Aleksei Oleinik (59-16-1) v. Jared Vanderaa (12-7-0)
Fight Analysis: Oleinik has struggled to three consecutive losses, the most recent by unanimous decision over 15 minutes. He is a decent striker who prefers to get the fight to the mat and hunt for a submission. Vanderaa moved to 1-3 in the UFC after a close split decision loss in his last fight. He is a high-volume striker with excellent kicks and good movement.
DFS Perspective: Oleinik will have a huge advantage on the mat and should look to get it there early. Vanderaa will need to keep this on the feet and piece away with volume to stay in this one.
My Pick: Oleinik
Mickey Gall (7-4-0) v. Mike Malott (7-1-1)
Fight Analysis: Malott is making his UFC debut after a 39-second win by guillotine choke on the Contender Series. He looks to be a solid all-around fighter with great striking, excellent pressure and complimenting grappling. Gall continued alternating wins and losses last time out, losing unanimously over 15 minutes. He is a decent striker with good forward pressure, moderate volume, and excellent grappling.
DFS Perspective: Malott looks like a solid prospect, and if this fight stays on the feet, I expect him to piece Gall up until he is finished. Gall's best chance is to find control on the mat and look for ground and pound or a submission.
My Pick: Malott
Aspen Ladd (9-2-0) v. Raquel Pennington (13-9-0)
Fight Analysis: Ladd was welcomed back after nearly two years with a unanimous decision loss over five rounds. She is a powerful striker with fast hands, solid footwork, and great grappling. Pennington rides in on a three-fight winning streak after a dominant performance that ended with a guillotine choke in the second round. She is a well-rounded fighter with high-volume striking, excellent footwork, and solid grappling.
DFS Perspective: I refuse to let Ladd burn me again. She looked lost in her last fight, and until she shows she has it again, I will go against her every time.
My Pick: Pennington
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (12-3-0) v. Marcin Tybura (22-7-0)
Fight Analysis: Rozenstruik has alternated wins and losses over his last six, with the most recent a unanimous decision loss over 15 minutes. He is a powerful striker with excellent forward pressure, a nasty counter, and great takedown defense. Tybura has his five-fight winning streak come to a halt after losing unanimously last time out. He is a technical striker with fast hands, solid footwork, and good grappling.
DFS Perspective: Rozenstruik has that one-punch power that can knock anyone's lights out. Tybura is the faster of the two and will want to get this fight to the mat or keep it at range. He has been knocked out four times professionally, and I think it will happen again here.
My Pick: Rozenstruik
Ian Garry (8-0-0) v. Darian Weeks (5-1-0)
Fight Analysis: It took nearly the whole first round, but Garry got comfortable and scored a knockout right before the bell in his debut. He is a well-rounded prospect with excellent striking, strong leg kicks, and terrific overall defense. Weeks lost in his debut, dropping a close unanimous decision over 15 minutes. He is a well-rounded fighter with significant power, strong forward pressure, and excellent grappling with a black belt in jiu-jitsu.
DFS Perspective: Weeks best chance is to take this fight down and control Garry on the mat. Garry should piece Weeks up on the feet, and his takedown defense is good enough to keep from going down often.
My Pick: Garry
Vinc Pichel (14-2-0) v. Mark Madsen (11-0-0)
Fight Analysis: Pichel pushed his win streak to three after a unanimous decision win last time out. He is a technical striker with quick feet, decent volume, and excellent grappling. Madsen showed off improved striking in his previous fight, earning a close decision win after 15 minutes on the feet. He is a decent striker with fast hands, high volume, and phenomenal wrestling.
DFS Perspective: In his last fight, Madsen chose not to use his wrestling. He could suffer his first UFC loss if he goes the same route. If he uses his wrestling, he should be able to lock up at least two rounds with control. Pichel would be wise to avoid anything on the mat and strike for 15 minutes.
My Pick: Madsen
Mackenzie Dern (11-2-0) v. Tecia Torres (13-5-0)
Fight Analysis: Dern dropped her last fight after 25 minutes to end her four-fight win streak and move her UFC record to 6-2. She is a phenomenal grappler with improved striking, solid footwork, and excellent submissions. After losing four straight, Torres flipped a switch, winning three in a row with the most recent by unanimous decision. She is a solid striker with high volume, fast hands, and tremendous forward pressure.
DFS Perspective: I like Dern to get back on track here. On the feet, the ladies are pretty close, with Torres having a volume edge. Dern will look early to get this fight on the mat where she will have an advantage, and if she does, an early submission is likely.
My Pick: Dern
Gilbert Burns (20-4-0) v. Khamzat Chimaev (10-0-0)
Fight Analysis: Burns shrugged off his recent loss with a dominant unanimous decision win in his most recent fight. He is a phenomenal all-around fighter with significant power, excellent wrestling, and great grappling. Chimaev continued his impressive UFC start, earning another first-round finish last time out. He is a powerful striker with lightning-fast hands, immense power, and fantastic wrestling.
DFS Perspective: This is a huge step up for Chimaev, and I am on the side of Burns. Chimaev has been hit with one significant strike in four UFC fights, which is incredible, but Burns will give him a much more difficult challenge. Burns is great everywhere, and I think he shuts the hype train down.
My Pick: Burns
Aljamain Sterling (20-3-0) v. Petr Yan (16-2-0)
Fight Analysis: Sterling and Yan will finally fight their rematch after the first bout ended by a Yan disqualification, making Sterling the champ. Sterling is a world-class grappler and wrestler with decent striking, excellent movement, and sneaky submissions. Yan is a phenomenal all-around fighter with powerful striking, high-volume, terrific overall defense, and great grappling.
DFS Perspective: Sterling will likely look to start fast and hunt for a submission early, which could cause him to gas out in the championship rounds. Yan will have a significant advantage on the feet, and I expect him to eventually finish Sterling to put the belt back where it belongs.
My Pick: Yan
Alexander Volkanovski (23-1-0) v. Chan Sung Jung (17-6-0)
Fight Analysis: After a tough five-round unanimous decision, Volkanovski successfully defended his belt for the second consecutive fight. He is a phenomenally well-rounded fighter with powerful striking, fast hands, great defense, and excellent grappling. TKZ was the replacement for this fight, but it was earned after a dominant unanimous decision win last time out. He is an excellent striker with tremendous forward pressure, high volume, phenomenal movement, and nasty finishing power.
DFS Perspective: Volkanovski is on another level, and as long as he avoids eating a kill shot, he should dominate this fight. He will be better everywhere and should have his way with TKZ.
My Pick: Volkanovski
FANDUEL SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6pts
Takedown = 6pts
Takedown Defense = 3pts
Knockdown = 12pts
Submission Attempt = 5pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100pts
2nd Round Win = 75pts
3rd Round Win = 50pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25pts
Decision Win = 20pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are "Distance Strike" or "Clinch/Ground Strikes" that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial amount of time.
DRAFTKINGS SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less
