This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 97 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC Vegas 97 takes place Saturday, so it's time to break down the top fights, plus make DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $350k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Welterweight
Gilbert Burns (22-7-0) v. Sean Brady (16-1-0)
DK Salaries: Burns ($7,500), Brady ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Burns (+155), Brady (-185)
Now 38 years of age and all but out of time in terms of the rankings at 170 pounds, Burns enters having lost two in a row and three of his last five. Now, those three defeats came against Jack Della Maddalena, Khamzat Chimaev and current UFC Welterweight Champion Belal Muhammad, but you are what your record says you are at this point. Gilbert turned things around in the latter stages of his career, but I'm all but certain we've seen the best he has to offer inside the Octagon.
Brady spent about 14 months on the sidelines following a knockout defeat to Muhammad in October 2022. He returned last December and submitted Kelvin Gastelum, a quality victory. Brady is certainly in better shape than Burns, but Gilbert has a massive experience edge, and Sean is no spring chicken himself at this point, as he gets set to turn 32 years old in November.
Burns landed seven takedowns against Della Maddalena and still lost. Yes, it was a knockout with just over a minute left, but the bottom line is that you can't give away a victory -- especially at this stage of Gilbert's career -- in a fight in which you connect on seven takedowns.
Burns obviously has elite submission skills, but he isn't a great pure wrestler. Brady wasn't able to take down Belal, but sandwiched between that fight were a pair of five-takedown performances against Gastelum and Michael Chiesa. I have a feeling Gilbert is at risk of spending long stretches of this fight on his back. He's not all that aggressive from the bottom, and Brady is very heavy from top position.
I expect the striking exchanges to be close. Neither of these guys are all that comfortable in prolonged kickboxing matches. Burns has definitely absorbed more damage over the years, and that's concerning.
Gilbert's movements on the feet are lumbering and robotic. He often finds himself reaching for his opposition, which has been an issue against better strikers. Brady doesn't fall into that category, but he can still make Burns pay because he can use Gilbert being off-balance to drive him to the mat.
I was trying to come up with what Gilbert's average win condition is at this stage of his career and had a difficult time. He's certainly not going to overwhelm you with volume on the feet, and submissions are notoriously difficult to predict. Sure, Brady could leave a limb exposed and pay for it, but I think it's far more likely he racks up a boatload of control time and Burns has problems getting out of first gear, which has been an issue for him in the past.
THE PICK: Brady
Co-Main Event - Women's Flyweight
Jessica Andrade (26-12-0) v. Natalia Silva (17-5-1)
DK Salaries: Andrade ($7,200), Silva ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Andrade (+240), Silva (-300)
Andrade has rebounded well from a three-fight losing streak, picking up back-to-back quality victories over Mackenzie Dern (TKO) and Marina Rodriguez (split decision). Set to turn 32 years of age a few weeks after this event takes place, Andrade is far from her prime, and I still maintain she has fought too frequently over the years, but it's nice to know she is still capable of a quality performance.
This seems like a good test for Silva at this stage of her career. She's a perfect 5-0 in the UFC with a pair of knockout wins in there, but her two best victories with the company came against Jasmine Jasudavicius and Viviane Araujo. Andrade, on the other hand, has faced Dern, Rodriguez, Tatiana Suarez, Erin Blanchfield, Amanda Lemos, Valentina Shevchenko, Rose Namajunas, Zhang Weili, Claudia Gadelha and Joanna Jedrzejczyk. In other words, literally every notable female fighter of roughly the past decade. The gap in competition level faced in this fight is real and notable.
Andrade has power for a smaller woman, but she's still struggling to get her head off the center line and getting hit too much. Yes, she lands 6.62 significant strikes per minute, but of larger concern, at least to me, is the 5.37 per minute she absorbs. There was a time earlier in her career than Andrade was able to thrive in a brawl, but her durability has worsened considerably over the past handful of years. She should be actively looking to avoid these type of situations, especially at this stage of her career, but it simply doesn't seem to be in her DNA.
Silva isn't a high-volume puncher, but she typically can up her output if needed in order to secure a decision. She's landed 70-plus significant strikes twice in her UFC career, which is a good sign and will likely be needed here given Andrade's aggressiveness.
The sample size is small, especially against halfway decent competition, but Silva has the look of a solid athlete with reasonable all-around skills. I'm not sure her ceiling is super high, but she's certainly shown enough thus far to be taken seriously, especially in a division which lacks depth.
Andrade is a live underdog simply because Silva has never faced anyone with her resume, but this feels like a classic case of a young, up-and-coming fighter being fed a somewhat over-the-hill veteran in hopes of adding a notable win to her record. I'll take Silva in a tight decision, even if I'm not overjoyed about paying up to find out the result.
THE PICK: Silva
Featherweight
Steve Garcia (16-5-0) v. Kyle Nelson (16-5-1)
DK Salaries: Garcia ($8,600), Nelson ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Garcia (-185), Nelson (+155)
This was originally supposed to be Nelson v. Calvin Kattar before the latter withdrew. My first thought was that Garcia would be easier matchup for Kyle, but now I'm not so sure.
Garcia will be fighting for the second time in about six weeks and the third time since last December. His previous two outings resulted in knockout victories over Seungwoo Choi and Melquizael Costa. Garcia has about as much pure knockout power as anyone currently going at 145 pounds. The rest of his game isn't great, and he's not accomplishing much when those shots aren't landing, but it's a legitimate difference-maker for him.
Credit to both the UFC and Nelson for allowing him to work through his issues at the highest level. Kyle began his run with the company with a 1-4 record, including three stoppage defeats. He then managed a majority draw against Doo Ho Choi which almost certainly saved his job, and he has since responded with three straight victories, including an upset of Bill Algeo in Atlantic City in his most recent fight in late-March. It feels like whatever happens for Nelson at this point forward is simply gravy.
At 5-foot-11, Nelson is bigger than the vast majority of featherweights. He uses his size well, damaging his opposition from distance and doing a nice job of the ole' wall-and-stall tactic.
The problem for Nelson here is that at 6-foot with a 75-inch reach (four inches greater than his own), Garcia is a legitimate problem on the feet for fellow featherweights. Everything Steve throws is with fight-ending intention. Kyle doesn't have any major durability issues, being knocked out just twice in 22 professional bouts, but he's absorbing 4.69 significant strikes per minutes, and I'd be flabbergasted if he was able to survive that type of volume against a sniper such as Garcia.
Nelson has plenty of experience. My guess is that he looks better than most expect for the vast majority of this bout before eating one set of blows from Garcia that finally puts him away. I simply find it impossible to believe that a fighter such as Nelson that typically absorbs so much damage will be able to reverse that trend against one of the hottest knockout artists in the sport today.
THE PICK: Garcia
Light Heavyweight
Ryan Spann (21-10-0) v. Ovince Saint Preux (27-17-0)
DK Salaries: Spann ($9,200), Saint Preux ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Spann (-340), Saint Preux (+270)
Now 41 years of age, Saint Preux is 3-4 in his past seven bouts dating back to May 2020. He's somehow won two of his last three, which is why he is still on the roster. An elite athlete that never learned the finer points of MMA, OSP's explosiveness and has all but diminished. This would have been a winnable fight for him earlier in his career, but now I'm not so sure.
Spann enters in even worse shape, having lost three in a row, including two via stoppage. He was submitted by Nikita Krylov, knocked out by Bogdan Guskov, and in between, dropped a split decision to Anthony Smith. Spann has shockingly little power for a guy his size, and his chin has always been a major question mark.
It sounds simple, but the winner of this fight will be the man whose durability holds up. I was pleasantly surprised that Saint Preux was able to eat 106 significant strikes from Kennedy Nczechukwu in his most recent bout in in March without crumbling. Even better was the fact OSP proved capable of an increased striking output when necessary, landing 143 significant strikes of his own. I'm fairly confident Saint Preux would be content with a similar brawl here given Spann's shortcomings on the feet.
Spann has a dozen career wins via submission, but six of them came in his first eight pro bouts. In other words, he was beating up on lesser competition. Spann isn't a great wrestler (1.34 takedowns landed per 15 minute), and that makes his ground-oriented attack difficult to rely on on a fight-by-fight basis.
Both of these men barely land more than three significant strikes per minute. While it's clear as day the easiest way to get OSP out of there these days is to attack him with volume on the feet, that certainly isn't a strength of Spann. If he isn't able to get Saint Preux to the mat, I can easily see an upset brewing.
This pick ultimately comes down to a matter of value.
Spann is nearly eight years younger and probably the better athlete at this age of their respective careers, but I simply can't get behind dumping $9,200 worth of my budget on him against any 205-pound opponent. A bet on Spann is nothing more than a bet against OSP. While I can most certainly get behind that strategy, I can also envision far too many scenarios in which Spann looks less than impressive even if he emerges victorious. I'll pass and take the value side.
THE PICK: Saint Preux
Other Bouts
Lightweight
Trevor Peek (9-2-0, 1NC) v. Yanal Ashmouz (7-1-0)
DK Salaries: Peek ($8,200), Ashmouz ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Peek (-130), Ashmouz (+110)
THE PICK: Ashmouz
Lightweight
Rong Zhu (25-5-0) v. Chris Padilla (14-6-0)
DK Salaries: Rong ($8,900), Padilla ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Rong (-250), Padilla (+205)
THE PICK: Rong
Featherweight
Isaac Dulgarian (6-1-0) v. Brendon Marotte (8-2-0)
DK Salaries: Dulgarian ($9,900), Marotte ($6,300)
Vegas Odds: Dulgarian (-1800), Marotte (+1000)
THE PICK: Dulgarian
Flyweight
Felipe dos Santos (8-1-0, 1NC) v. Andre Lima (9-0-0)
DK Salaries: Dos Santos ($7,700), Lima ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Dos Santos (+155), Lima (-185)
THE PICK: Lima
Featherweight
Yi Zha (25-4-0) v. Gabriel Santos (10-2-0)
DK Salaries: Yi ($7,400), Santos ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Yi (+200), Santos (-250)
THE PICK: Santos
Women's Strawweight
Jaqueline Amorim (8-1-0) v. Vanessa Demopoulos (11-5-0)
DK Salaries: Amorin ($9,100), Demopoulous ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Amorin (-310), Demopoulous (+250)
THE PICK: Amorin
Middleweight
Andre Petroski (11-4-0) v. Dylan Budka (7-3-0)
DK Salaries: Petroski ($9,300), Budka ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Petroski (-270), Budka (+255)
THE PICK: Petroski
Featherweight
Zygimantas Ramaska (9-2-0) v. Nathan Fletcher (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: Ramaska ($7,900), Fletcher ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Ramaska (+120), Fletcher (-140)
THE PICK: Ramaska
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 97 with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
