This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 94 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC Vegas 94 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $350k MMA Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Women's Strawweight
Amanda Lemos (14-3-1) v. Virna Jandiroba (20-3-0)
DK Salaries: Lemos ($7,700), Jandiroba ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Lemos (+115), Lemos (-135)
It's partially due to the lack of depth in the division, but Lemos is firmly in the title conversation at 115 pounds. She's won three of her past four bouts, with the lone defeat being a lopsided loss to Zhang Weili in a title fight last August. To Lemos' credit, she rebounded with a quality win over Mackenzie Dern her last time out. Nothing in Amanda's resume suggests she is on the same level as the top girls in the division, but she's firmly entrenched in that second tier.
Jandiroba has won three in a row, four of her last five, and six of her past eight. There's an argument to be made Virna's greatest weakness has been inactivity. She fought just once in 2022 and once in 2023. That's why it's nice to see her get right back in the octagon following her unanimous decision win over Loopy Godinez this past March in Atlantic City.
Lemos has legitimate power for the division, and she better because an advanced look at the numbers reveal plenty of reasons to be concerned moving forward. For starters, Lemos turned 37 years of age in late May. She gets hit (4.21 significant strikes absorbed per minutes) more than she lands (3.34 significant strikes per minute). Lemos averages less than one takedown per 15 minutes (0.98) and defending the takedown at just a 57 percent clip. To summarize, there's no reason to think this string of success is going to continue.
Almost exactly a year younger than Lemos, Jandiroba is no spring chicken herself. Virna's striking is sloppy and a prolonged kickboxing match is almost certainly going to favor Amanda, but Jandiroba's grappling has the potential to be a true difference maker in this fight. Virna has landed at least two takedowns in three straight fights (Godinez, Marina Rodriguez, Angela Hill). At 5-foot-3, Virna isn't very big, but she excels at sticking to her opposition and keeping them planted to the mat. She was credited with 12:02 worth of control time in the Rodriguez fight.
I suspect Lemos is going to have her moments on the feet at times, but her win condition is likely via knockout. I don't think she's going to be able to outpoint Virna over the course of 25 minutes, especially when the latter seems almost certain to land a handful of takedowns.
I might have more faith in Amanda if Jandiroba displayed durability issues in the past, but she's never been finished -- via knockout or submission -- in 23 pro fights. I think she ends up racking up plenty of control time and is able to earn a decision.
THE PICK: Jandiroba
Co-Main Event - Middleweight
Brad Tavares (20-10-0) v. Jun Yong Park (17-6-0)
DK Salaries: Tavares ($7,200), Park ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Tavares (+140), Park (-165)
Set to turn 37 years of age this coming December, Tavares is clearly running out of time. He's just 1-3 in his past four fights dating back to July 2022, with the lone victory coming against a washed-up Chris Weidman. Strictly a decision fighter at this stage of his career, Tavares doesn't have a stoppage win in six-plus years.
Park should be entering on a five-fight winning streak. He ran off four straight victories from May 2022 to July 2023 and then fought Andre Muniz last December. Park lost via split decision but it appeared for all the world that he won. No spring chicken himself at age 33, Park's roster spot would appear much more secure than that of Tavares.
Tavares is a pure brawler at this stage of his career. He hasn't landed a takedown in more than six years. Unfortunately for Brad, that seems like the wrong game plan against Park. Tavares is willing to eat a blow in order to land two of his own. I wouldn't call him a high-volume striker, but he's capable of stringing together combinations under the right circumstances. The issue for Tavares is that Park is super durable. He's been finished via strikes just once in 23 professional bouts and he typically eats whatever is thrown his way without issue and continues to push forward.
Park is also deceptively athletic. He has six career wins via submission, including three of his last four victories. He's not an offensive wrestler by any means, but he's capable of landing a well-timed takedown here and there before going to work on the mat.
Durability figures to be a massive factor in this fight. I expect a back-and-forth brawl. I could envision a scenario in which Tavares is a little quicker, but I think Park has more power and definitely has more ways to win.
He also appears to be pretty reasonably priced. Tavares' win condition at this stage of his career is almost certainly via decision and Park has a significant durability edge. This was a pretty easy pick.
THE PICK: Park
Featherweight
Steve Garcia (15-5-0) v. Seungwoo Choi (11-6-0)
DK Salaries: Garcia ($8,600), Choi ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Garcia (-150), Choi (+125)
Garcia has quietly been on a nice little run after losing two of his first three UFC bouts. He's won each of his last three, all via knockout. They've also all come against reasonable competition in Melquizael Costa, Shayilan Nuerdanbieke, and Chase Hooper. Garcia earned a reputation as a massive power puncher in both Bellator and on the regional scene and it's nice to see that stopping power carry over to the UFC.
Choi lost three straight from October 2021 to November 2022 and appeared to be a prime release candidate but the company gave him one more chance and he responded with a unanimous decision win over Jarno Errens last August. The victory means nothing over the long term but it did ensure Choi wasn't handed his walking papers and gets an opportunity to upset Garcia here.
Choi, like Garcia, had a ton of knockout wins on the regional scene, but his stopping power has not carried over to the UFC. He has just one knockout in nine fights with the company and that came in June 2021.
It's safe to say a fire fight favors Garcia. He has the power edge and is also the more technical boxer. He is also pretty good at defending himself considering all of his victories of late have come via knockout. He absorbs just 2.40 significant strikes per minute. Choi isn't too bad in that area in his own right, absorbing just 3.02 per 60 seconds.
Choi isn't much of a wrestler, averaging 0.87 takedowns per 15 minutes, but he's capable of sneaking one here and there and I could see him trying to lean on his grappling in hopes of limiting Garcia's space on the feet. Garcia's 88 percent takedown defense is excellent, but he has been dragged down exactly once in each of his last two bouts.
This fight feels like it will be close. Choi typically keeps things competitive, even when he comes up short, and it's also fair to wonder what Garcia's backup plan will be if he isn't constantly knocking his opposition out cold.
Ultimately, I think Garcia lands the more notable blows and takes a decision. Although that involves hoping the judges get it correct, something that has seemingly been a struggle of late.
THE PICK: Garcia
Featherweight
Doo Ho Choi (14-4-1) v. Bill Algeo (18-8-0)
DK Salaries: Choi ($7,300), Algeo ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Choi (+140), Algeo (-165)
Algeo has had some excellent performances during the course of his UFC run, but he's also struggled to string victories together. He seemed primed to run off a three-fight winning streak in Atlantic City in late March, only to get folded by Kyle Nelson late in Round 1. It was a crushing result in what was essentially a home game for the Pennsylvania native. This is a quick turnaround and I'm not sure it's the wisest move.
Speaking of fighters catching a bad break, Choi returned from three-plus years on the sidelines and took on Nelson in February. The fight was ruled a majority draw after Choi was docked a point in Round 3 due to an illegal headbutt, but he still almost certainly deserved to win. The streak is spread out over quite a long time, but Choi is now 0-3-1 in his past four fights dating back to December 2016.
Algeo is tough and physical and has no history of durability issues -- the Nelson knockout loss was the first of his career -- so he would appear to be in decent shape to bounce back here. He also has activity on his side. Octagon rust is real, regardless of what Dominick Cruz says. Algeo fought nine times (that is not a misprint) during Choi's hiatus. There's real value in that.
On the flip side, Choi seems likely to look much better in his second fight back. He's now in some sort of rhythm, having competed once and now will get a second full training camp under his belt. He's a couple years younger than Algeo and certainly has less miles on his body than Bill.
Choi is going to have to find a way to negate a two-inch reach deficit and three-inch reach disadvantage. It could absolutely be a problem in another fight which projects as a slugfest.
Choi has never displayed much in terms of secondary skills. He has one career win via submission. Algeo is going to have a massive edge on the mat, which combined with Choi's woeful 50 percent takedown defense makes me think Bill is going to lean on his grappling.
I don't like the price tag and think Choi is most defnitely the better value, but I just can't get over the gap in activity between these two. That swings me in Algeo's direction, although I imagine Choi remains competitive.
THE PICK: Algeo
Other Bouts
Lightweight
Kurt Holobaugh (21-8-0, 1NC) v. Kaynan Kruschewsky (15-2-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Holobaugh ($7,500), Kruschewsky ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Holobaugh (+110), Kruschewsky (-130)
THE PICK: Kruschewsky
Flyweight
Cody Durden (16-5-1) v. Bruno Silva (13-5-2, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Durden ($8,300), Silva ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Durden (-120), Silva (+100)
THE PICK: Silva
Featherweight
Jeong Yeong Lee (11-1-0) v. Hyder Amil (9-0-0)
DK Salaries: Lee ($9,100), Amil ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Lee (-185), Amil (+155)
THE PICK: Lee
Bantamweight
Brian Kelleher (24-15-0) v. Cody Gibson (20-10-0)
DK Salaries: Kelleher ($6,900), Gibson ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Kelleher (+170), Gibson (-205)
THE PICK: Gibson
Women's Flyweight
Miranda Maverick (15-5-0) v. Dione Barbosa (7-2-0)
DK Salaries: Maverick ($9,200), Barbosa ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Maverick (-220), Barbosa (+180)
THE PICK: Maverick
Lightweight
Loik Radzhabov (18-5-1) v. Trey Ogden (17-6-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Radzhabov ($8,400, Ogden ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Radzhabov (-115), Ogden (-105)
THE PICK: Ogden
Women's Flyweight
Luana Carolina (10-4-0) v. Lucie Pudilova (14-9-0)
DK Salaries: Carolina ($8,000), Pudilova ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Carolina (-115), Pudilova (-105)
THE PICK: Carolina
Heavyweight
Mohammed Usman (11-3-0) v. Thomas Petersen (8-2-0)
DK Salaries: Usman ($8,800), Petersen ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Usman (-135), Petersen (+115)
THE PICK: Petersen
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 94 with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
