Thursday NFL DFS Breakdown: The Thanksgiving Slate

Before DFS sites existed, RotoWire staffers ran simple snake drafts for the three-game slate and scored the games by hand (some of us still play that way). My cheat sheet for that is available for all to consume.

Before breaking down specific plays and approaches on each site, here's a quick glance at the six teams in action Thursday.

Game Schedule + Vegas Info

Bears (-2.5) at Lions (o/u 43.5) | TV: CBS, 12:30p ET
(The Bears-Lions line has moved from -4 with a 45 o/u)
Redskins at Cowboys (-7) (o/u 40.5) | TV: FOX, 4:30p ET
Falcons at Saints (-13) (o/u 59.5) | TV: NBC, 8:20p ET

Weather will not impact the games in these three stadiums.

Implied Totals

Saints - 36.25
Cowboys - 23.75
Falcons - 23.25
Bears - 23
Lions - 20.5
Redskins - 16.75

Fantasy Points Allowed by Position

The table below uses full PPR scoring. You can view other scoring options (and site-specific choices) with the RotoWire Defense vs. Position tool.

In addition to the Classic salary-cap format covered in this piece, both sites are running single-game contests for each of the three games as well. Those contests are not addressed below.

DraftKings

From a chalk perspective, it's not difficult to build a lineup you will like featuring the two elite backs in the pool -- Ezekiel Elliott ($8,600) and Alvin Kamara ($8,300).

That lineup build will skew toward mid-tier and cheaper wide receivers, and still leave enough under the salary cap to use your choice of Drew Brees ($6,500) or Matt Ryan ($6,100), but it will almost certainly require passing on Michael Thomas ($8,900) and Julio Jones ($8,300).

At least in cash games, this is a perfectly viable approach. You can probably build a dozen lineups you like with different combinations of Zeke, Kamara, Thomas, Jones, Brees, Ryan mixed and matched.

Using that running back duo in a tournament will require some very unique twists elsewhere.

Instead of building several easy-to-construct chalk-heavy lineups, let's use the $3 Wishbone (GPP) as the basis for our thought process. The contest is capped at 317,082 entries. To win the $50,000 top prize (or share it with others who build the same lineup), you'll have to do a few things that are different.

Fading one or both of the top two running backs might be a good starting point. Alternatively, you might decide to fade the nightcap between the Falcons and Saints and hope for a game with less offense than expected, or at least, take a cheap shot or two with a non-star player from each of the two teams.

You can also consider using a second tight end in the flex spot.

With any small slate or single-game contest, it's important to consider the option of not spending every available dollar as a way of having a combination of players that varies from the hundreds of thousands of other lineups.

Building heavily around Lions and/or Redskins will also provide unique twists, as their low implied totals and significant warts due to key injuries will scare a lot of people away.

Matthew Stafford has eclipsed 18 DraftKings points once since Week 5.
Washington backup quarterback Colt McCoy might be playing behind an offensive line missing several starters.

Both quarterbacks are facing strong pass rushes, but both could end up in situations where they're forced to drop back and throw 35+ passes as they attempt to play catch-up throughout the second half.

McCoy hasn't started a game since 2014, but his time in Washington has included nine appearances (four starts), and he's posted an 8.1 adjusted YPA in those games. It should be noted, however, that this supporting cast is probably the worst he's played with in D.C.

Thinking in terms of GPP stacks, these are the contrarian foundations to consider:

DET: Matthew Stafford + Kenny Golladay + Bruce Ellington (or a DET tight end)

Cost: $14,900 | $35,100 remaining under the cap

I would be inclined to take the two receivers with Stafford in this scenario given the uncertain health of Michael Roberts, and the lack of clarity regarding the distribution of the limited targets that the Detroit offense sends to its tight ends. Plus, the tight ends might be asked to block rather than run routes in this matchup.

Ellington had nine targets in the Lions' win over the Panthers in Week 11, and the lack of depth options behind Golladay leaves that door wide open again Thursday.

Golladay and Theo Riddick ($4,500) should be the highly-owned options in the Lions' offense from this slate. Playing one is OK, but playing both seems suboptimal.

WAS: Colt McCoy + Josh Doctson + Jordan Reed

Cost: $13,500 | $36,500 remaining under the cap

In this scenario, you're almost certainly using one of Zeke or Amari Cooper on the other side as you would be assuming that Dallas is pushing Washington into a pass-heavy attack.

Reed should be the highest-owned tight end since he is gobbling up a ton of targets -- including three games this season with a target share of at least 30 percent. In the absence of Jamison Crowder and Paul Richardson (who is out for the season), Doctson has been the second option in the passing game behind Reed most weeks, getting at least 15 percent of the Washington target share in five of the last six games.

It will be interesting to see if head coach Jay Gruden utilizes more two tight-end sets against Dallas with the hope of keeping the aforementioned Cowboys pass rush at bay, which would put Vernon Davis in position to contribute more than some of the depth receivers (Trey Quinn and Michael Floyd). Using Davis, Maurice Harris, Quinn or Floyd in place of Reed would make this stack even more unique.

DAL: Dak Prescott + Amari Cooper + Cole Beasley or Michael Gallup

Cost: $14,300 | $35,700 remaining under the cap with Gallup instead of Beasley ($15K w/Beasley instead of Gallup, $35K remaining)

In this scenario, you're fading Zeke, which checks one of the biggest contrarian boxes, and it provides the necessary exposure to the Dallas running game with Dak's ability to vulture the occasional rushing TD in close.

Even though Gallup is $700 less than Beasley ($4,200), I expect Beasley to be more heavily owned. Gallup's target share was greater than Beasley's in the Cowboys' first game with Cooper in the fold, but Beasley has had the upper hand in each of the last two contests. Keep in mind, however, that Washington has been particularly vulnerable in coverage on the outside, which favors Gallup, even though he has a wider range of outcomes than Beasley.

This combo should allow you to go chalky with Kamara or Michael Thomas and Julio Jones since you'll have plenty of cash left to spend for high-end building blocks.

***

As running backs go, the Zeke + Kamara combos, or mid-range pivots to Mark Ingram should leave Tevin Coleman as a relatively low-owned option at a reasonable price. He's been frustrating throughout Devonta Freeman's absence, and the Saints' defense has been stout against the run in 2018, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs (PPR scoring).

LeGarrette Blount ($3,400) might fly under the radar given the full-PPR scoring on DraftKings, as those investing in the Detroit backfield will likely opt for Theo Riddick ($4,500) instead. It doesn't take much for Blount to return value at that price, and he always brings the potential for goal-line carries, even though Chicago's run-stuffing defense puts a significant cap on his yardage ceiling.

On the other side of the Lions-Bears matchup, Jordan Howard at $4,100 ($1,200 less than Tarik Cohen) with a comparable projection is intriguing.

With Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder) listed as doubtful Wednesday, I'm slightly less interested in pivoting to Anthony Miller ($4,400) from Tre'Quan Smith ($4,700) as a discounted receiver. Perhaps it's an even more contrarian approach now with Chase Daniel expected to start, and the logic here was that Miller had at least six targets in each of the Bears' previous four games before he slipped to three in Sunday's win over Minnesota. Allen Robinson torched the Lions in their meeting two weeks ago, and while I trust Matt Nagy to continue moving Robinson around enough to keep him from getting shadowed by Darius Slay, the drop from Trubisky to Daniel makes me less likely to pay up for Robinson.

At tight end, I noted above that I expect Jordan Reed (35-40%) to be the highest-owned player at the position. Trey Burton ($4,000) and Austin Hooper ($4,200) will be in the next tier (maybe 15-20% each?). Ben Watson ($3,200) will almost certainly be next in the pecking order, but that might be far enough down the list since the drop-off in red-zone opportunities when you look at the cheaper options is steep. Watson has nine red-zone targets this season, including four in the Saints' last five games.

The Lions have targeted Michael Roberts in the red zone on four occasions in the last four games he's played (he was out with a shoulder injury Sunday against Carolina), which gives him a slight edge if you're playing a tight end at the salary floor ($2,500), assuming that he's deemed healthy enough to play. I'm hesitant to expect much from him volume-wise between the 20s, however.

With defenses, it's just a matter of taking something that doesn't oppose a potential stack.

Dallas ($3,200) is easy enough to fit in if you're not stacking Washington's passing game, and the same holds true with Chicago ($2,900) if you're not going the Stafford + Detroit pass-catchers route.

FanDuel

Not surprisingly, the same Kamara-Zeke combo can be built around very easily on FanDuel as well.

As is the case on DraftKings, if I'm paying up for two elite players with a tournament build on FanDuel, it will be the top receivers (Michael Thomas and Julio Jones) instead of the top two running backs (Alvin Kamara and Ezekiel Elliott), or at least a combination of one of each depending on how the rest of my lineup fits together.

The fading concepts outlined in the DraftKings section above are the basic ways to get a lineup that is unique in a large GPP scenario.

On FanDuel, the less popular QB + 2 pass-catcher stacks look like this:

DET: Matthew Stafford + Kenny Golladay + Bruce Ellington

Cost: $19,000 | $41,000 remaining under the cap

This frees up enough cash to potentially use your favorite high-priced running back and the top two receivers if you desire.

WAS: Colt McCoy + Josh Doctson + Jordan Reed

Cost: $17,800 | $42,200 remaining under the cap

Pivoting off Reed and just leaving McCoy with Doctson would get rid of the chalky part of the trio, and jamming in two pricey backs and two elite receivers could be within reach.

DAL: Dak Prescott + Amari Cooper + Cole Beasley or Michael Gallup

Cost: $18,800 | $41,200 remaining under the cap using Gallup instead of Beasley

Especially with half-point PPR scoring, I prefer Gallup in tournaments to Beasley in this matchup.

Of the three options here, I think I prefer a Dallas trio since it veers away from some of the chalk in Golladay and Reed.

***

Theo Riddick's price on FanDuel ($4,800) is even more favorable than its on DraftKings, when you consider the significant increases on Mark Ingram, Adrian Peterson, and Tevin Coleman ($1,300-$1,600 more on FanDuel), among others. After Zeke and Kamara, Riddick figures to the be the next highest-owned back on the site given the current state of the Lions' pass-catching options, and it wouldn't surprise me if that trio is the most frequently-used group between the two RB slots and the flex.

If you are buying into a LeGarrette Blount TD-vulture narrative, he's only $4,600, and again, I think he'll be mostly ignored.

Could a Chicago RB stack with Howard ($6,100) and Cohen ($6,000) together work? Howard frequently gets 2-3x the total touches (carries + catches) that Cohen gets, and at worse, they would end up splitting them evenly.

Sticking with the boring player theme, Mohamed Sanu ($5,300) is $900 cheaper than Calvin Ridley, whether you're stacking Atlanta pass-catchers with Matt Ryan, or looking for affordable one-off exposure to the Falcons' passing attack. Sanu has had a larger target share than Ridley in two of the last three games and they're both averaging a 14% target share this season.

Tre'Quan Smith isn't a hard fade for me on FanDuel, since his price ($6,400) uses up more than 10% of your salary cap (9.4% on DraftKings), but I still think he'll be very popular as a cheaper path to Saints exposure than Kamara, Ingram, and Michael Thomas.

Tight end is a nightmare on FanDuel, since every single player on the board takes a larger percentage of your salary cap there than they do on DraftKings. This will make a tight end in the flex even more sneaky, even if you have to use two of the four highly-owned options. Paying up for Trey Burton ($6,400) and/or Jordan Reed ($6,000) doesn't require much of a sacrifice elsewhere in your lineup.

Saving money on a defense on FanDuel will likely lead you to the Saints ($3,200), but the Lions ($3,400) are in play as well with Chase Daniel on track to start in place of Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder).