This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
Houston (+9.5) at Kansas City, 51.0 o/u – Sunday, 3:05 p.m. EST
The ending to last week's Houston-Buffalo tilt at times felt like it was part of a Hollywood movie scripted by someone with only a vague idea of how the game of football is supposed to be played, but enough about Josh Allen. Deshaun Watson and company advanceD amidst the chaos, but they hardly looked like world-beaters. The Bills sacked the QB seven times, even if it's the one they somehow didn't get that will haunt them all offseason, and Watson and DeAndre Hopkins were arguably the only two skill players to really show up. The Texans need to generate more offense if they're going to even keep this one close, and the key likely will be Hopkins. The Chiefs finished the regular season third in DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers, which would normally land him in the "Fade" section below, but for whatever reason the 27-year-old has owned Kansas City in his career, hauling in seven TDs in five games against the Chiefs. That includes a goose egg in Week 6, when he posted a 9-55-0 line on 12 targets in a 31-24 win by Houston. Patrick Mahomes threw for three TDs in that loss, but it effectively marked the end of his elite production on the year — he injured his knee the next week, and while he did torch the Titans in his Week 10 return, he's topped 300 passing yards only once since,
Houston (+9.5) at Kansas City, 51.0 o/u – Sunday, 3:05 p.m. EST
The ending to last week's Houston-Buffalo tilt at times felt like it was part of a Hollywood movie scripted by someone with only a vague idea of how the game of football is supposed to be played, but enough about Josh Allen. Deshaun Watson and company advanceD amidst the chaos, but they hardly looked like world-beaters. The Bills sacked the QB seven times, even if it's the one they somehow didn't get that will haunt them all offseason, and Watson and DeAndre Hopkins were arguably the only two skill players to really show up. The Texans need to generate more offense if they're going to even keep this one close, and the key likely will be Hopkins. The Chiefs finished the regular season third in DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers, which would normally land him in the "Fade" section below, but for whatever reason the 27-year-old has owned Kansas City in his career, hauling in seven TDs in five games against the Chiefs. That includes a goose egg in Week 6, when he posted a 9-55-0 line on 12 targets in a 31-24 win by Houston. Patrick Mahomes threw for three TDs in that loss, but it effectively marked the end of his elite production on the year — he injured his knee the next week, and while he did torch the Titans in his Week 10 return, he's topped 300 passing yards only once since, averaging less than 240 yards in his final six games with a mediocre 8:4 TD:INT. The Chiefs need him to return to his dominant form if they're going to make a serious run at a Super Bowl, and a rematch against a Texans secondary that let both rookie Drew Lock and 42-year-old Tom Brady toss up more than 300 yards in the final month of the regular season could be just the opponent Mahomes needs to catch fire.
The Skinny
HOU injuries: WR Will Fuller V (questionable, groin), WR Kenny Stills (questionable, knee), TE Jordan Akins (questionable, hamstring), RT Chris Clark (questionable, concussion), DE J.J. Watt (questionable, shoulder), CB Johnathan Joseph (questionable, hamstring), S Jahleel Addae (questionable, knee)
KC injuries: TE Travis Kelce (questionable, knee), DT Chris Jones (questionable, calf)
HOU DFS targets: Carlos Hyde (KC 29th in YPC allowed, 26th in rushing yards per game allowed, 29th in rushing DVOA), Stills (KC 21st in DVOA vs. WR3)
KC DFS targets: Mahomes (HOU 29th in passing yards per game allowed, t-27th in passing TDs allowed, 26th in passing DVOA), Damien Williams (HOU 27th in YPC allowed, 25th in rushing yards per game allowed, 27th in passing DVOA vs. RB), Chiefs DST (seventh in points per game allowed, HOU 27th in sack percentage allowed)
HOU DFS fades: Watson (KC eighth in passing yards per game allowed, sixth in YPA allowed)
KC DFS fades: Tyreek Hill (HOU fourth in DVOA against deep throws)
Key stat: KC was first in third-down offense during the regular season at 47.6 percent; HOU was 31st in third-down defense at 48.5 percent
Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 30s, 10-11 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of snow
The Scoop
Hyde bangs out 70 yards. Watson throws for 260 yards and TDs to Stills and Duke Johnson. Williams picks up 110 combined yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Mahomes throws for 340 yards and a second score to Kelce. Chiefs, 33-17
Seattle (+4.5) at Green Bay, 47.0 o/u – Sunday, 6:40 p.m. EST
The Seahawks won ugly last week, and while it's fair to wonder if they even advance to this game if Jadeveon Clowney doesn't take Carson Wentz out of the equation, the bottom line is they're still playing and the Eagles aren't. Marshawn Lynch scored a TD for the second straight game, but he's been less Beast Mode and more Bust Mode since his emergency return to Seattle, managing a lethargic 2.8 yards per carry, which shouldn't be surprising given his long layoff. As a result, Russell Wilson had to shoulder the load again last week, which frankly is what the Seahawks' game plan should be every week — especially with the entire left side of the offensive line at less than 100 percent health — but Pete Carroll's gonna carroll. The Packers' front seven is a bit banged up as well despite getting a bye week to rest and recover, but their key pieces are all healthy. Aaron Rodgers no longer seems like the linchpin of the offense, though, and while he's still stingy with turnovers, he topped 250 passing yards only once in the second half, and that in a Week 17 game against a Lions' squad that had mostly checked out long before. Green Bay still won five consecutive to close out its schedule thanks largely to a surprisingly tough defense, plus big performances from Aaron Jones and occasionally Davante Adams. The Packers' biggest advantage Sunday night might be playing on some truly frozen tundra at Lambeau, though, as Wilson could have trouble making things happen with numb fingers.
The Skinny
SEA injuries: LT George Fant (questionable, groin), LG Mike Iupati (questionable, neck), C Joey Hunt (questionable, lower leg), DE Clowney (questionable, groin), DE Ezekiel Ansah (questionable, neck), CB Tre Flowers (questionable, knee)
GB injuries: RG Billy Turner (questionable, ankle), NT Kenny Clark (questionable, back), OLB Preston Smith (questionable, ankle)
SEA DFS targets: Jacob Hollister (GB 24th in DVOA vs. TE)
GB DFS targets: Jones (SEA 28th in YPC allowed, 30th in rushing TDs allowed, 26th in rushing DVOA), Packers DST (ninth in points per game allowed, t-7th in takeaways, SEA 28th in sack percentage allowed)
SEA DFS fades: DK Metcalf (GB third in DVOA vs. WR2)
GB DFS fades: none
Key stat: GB was eighth in red-zone offense during the regular season, scoring a TD on 64.0 percent (32-for-50) of RZ possessions; SEA was 26th in red-zone defense at 61.5 percent (32-for-52)
Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high teens, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of snow
The Scoop
Lynch picks up 50 yards. Wilson throws for 230 yards and runs for 50, hitting Holliser for a TD. Jones runs for 90 yards and a score. Rodgers throws for 220 yards and a touchdowns to Adams. Packers, 17-16
Minnesota (+7) at San Francisco, 44.0 o/u – Saturday, 4:35 p.m. EST
The Vikings' reward for their overtime win against the Saints is a trip to San Francisco and a battle with the NFC's top seed, but such is life as a wild card. They won't head into this one at completely full strength, either — just as Adam Thielen was starting to look like his old self, he got slashed by a cleat in practice this week and needed stitches on his ankle. Minnesota's secondary is also a little short-handed. Fortunately, Dalvin Cook appears to be 100 percent healthy. He topped 100 scrimmage yards against the Saints for the first time since Week 10 and scored multiple TDs for the first time since Week 7, and his shoulder didn't appear to be an issue. If Mike Zimmer is going to make his ground-and-pound plan work, and keep Kyle Shanahan's dynamic offense off the field, he'll need Cook to come up big. That's easier said than done, though, as the Niners have only allowed two running backs to hit them up for 100 rushing yards all year (Christian McCaffrey and Kenyan Drake), and Chris Carson was the only other RB to reach triple digits in scrimmage yards against them. Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara, Nick Chubb and Joe Mixon, among others, fell short. Raheem Mostert emerged as San Fran's top back to close out the regular season, finding the end zone in six consecutive games while piling up 515 combined yards and eight total TDs during that stretch, and while the Vikings' defense was generally stingy on the the ground as well this year (tied for third in rushing touchdowns allowed at eight) and looked good against New Orleans last weekend, it was vulnerable to some big performances late in the year — Carson and Rashaad Penny both topped 100 scrimmage yards against the Vikes in Week 13, while Aaron Jones gashed them for 154 rushing yards and two scores in Week 16. The Niners are mostly healthy coming out of their bye, and even Dee Ford might be ready to rejoin a pass rush that's been one of the most dangerous in the league thanks to Nick Bosa, though the rookie faded a bit down the stretch, recording one sack in the last five games.
The Skinny
MIN injuries: WR Thielen (questionable, ankle), CB Mackenzie Alexander (out, knee)
SF injuries: DE Ford (questionable, hamstring)
MIN DFS targets: Cook (SF 23rd in YPC allowed), Vikings DST (sixth in points per game allowed, fourth in takeaways)
SF DFS targets: Kendrick Bourne (MIN 24th in DVOA vs. WR3), Niners DST (eighth in points per game allowed, sixth in takeaways, third in sack percentage)
MIN DFS fades: Kirk Cousins (SF first in passing yards per game allowed, first in YPA allowed, second in passing DVOA), Kyle Rudolph (SF second in DVOA vs. TE)
SF DFS fades: George Kittle (MIN first in DVOA vs. TE)
Key stat: SF was fifth in third-down offense (45.0 percent) during the regular season; MIN was 19th in third-down defense (39.7 percent)
Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 50s, 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain
The Scoop
Cook manages 80 scrimmage yards and scores. Cousins throws for 230 yards and a TD to Stefon Diggs but gets picked off twice and sacked five times. Mostert gains 100 combined yards and a touchdown. Jimmy Garoppolo throws for 260 yards and TDs to Bourne and Emmanuel Sanders. 49ers, 21-17
Tennessee (+9.5) at Baltimore, 47.0 o/u – Saturday, 8:15 p.m. EST
Kudos to the Titans for defeating the evil empire last week and potentially ending that saga, even if the reveal that Mike Vrabel was really the coaching progeny of Emperor Belitine may have angered some fans. Emperor Palpachick? Hmm. Need to workshop that one. Tennessee might have benefited from playing a fairly toothless Pats offense in the wild-card game, but as long as Derrick Henry keeps running through the opposition like a wild mudhorn protecting its egg (this is a reference to the Mandalorian, by the way, which you should really watch if you haven't yet), the team has a chance to beat anyone. If there's a question around the Titans' offense coming into this one, it's at quarterback. Yes, Ryan Tannehill was amazing to close out the regular season — he actually ended up finishing first in QB rating at 117.5 — and help get the team into the playoffs. He also just won his first career postseason game by throwing for 72 yards. No, there isn't a digit missing in that. New England's pass defense was outstanding this year, but still, that's alarming, especially when he now has to face another one of the league's elite secondaries. Tennesse's own defense also suffered a big blow last week when Jayon Brown got hurt, giving them one less piece to slow down likely MVP Lamar Jackson. While the focus remains primarily on his historic performance as a rusher, don't overlook the fact that he led the league in passing TDs as well while finishing third in QB rating behind Tannehill and Drew Brees. That's the old-school, arm-only QB rating, not the newer measures that try to account for production on the ground. Unless the Titans can find a way to slow Jackson, it might not matter much what Henry does.
The Skinny
TEN injuries: WR Adam Humphries (out, ankle), LB Brown (out, shoulder)
BAL injuries: RB Mark Ingram II (questionable, calf), TE Mark Andrews (questionable, ankle)
TEN DFS targets: Henry (BAL 19th in rushing DVOA)
BAL DFS targets: Marquise Brown (TEN 28th in DVOA vs. WR1), Seth Roberts (TEN 30th in DVOA vs. WR3), Ravens DST (third in points per game allowed, TEN 32nd in sack percentage allowed)
TEN DFS fades: Tannehill (BAL sixth in passing yards per game allowed, fifth in YPA allowed, t-2nd in passing TDs allowed, fourth in passing DVOA), A.J. Brown (BAL sixth in DVOA vs. WR1)
BAL DFS fades: none
Key stat: BAL was second in red-zone offense during the regular season, scoring a TD on 67.2 percent (43-for-64) in RZ possessions, and first in total RZ possessions; TEN was 31st in red-zone defense at 68.1 percent (32-for-47)
Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 50s, 9-11 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain
The Scoop
Henry rumbles for 120 yards and a TD. Tannehill throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Corey Davis. Ingram picks up 80 yards. Jackson throws for 240 yards and TDs to Brown and Andrews while running for 80 yards and a score of his own. Ravens, 27-22
Last week's record: 0-4, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 o/u
2019 regular-season record: 157-98-1, 123-125-8 ATS, 127-122-7 o/u
2018 regular-season record: 160-94-2, 112-134-10 ATS, 113-139-4 o/u
Lifetime record: 793-482-5, 593-637-50 ATS, 493-511-20 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)
