NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down Week 4

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (+2.5) - Thursday, 8:25 pm EDT

Comments: It's been a long time since someone other than Ben Roethlisberger was under center for the Steelers. In fact, the last time Big Ben missed a game was 2012, when Byron Leftwich and Charlie Batch (hashtag Throwback Thursday) filled in for him. At this stage of his career, I'm not sure a 35-year-old Michael Vick is better either of those guys, as his completion percentage has been in free-fall the last few years (dropping from 62.6 percent with the Eagles in 2010 to 52.9 percent with the Jets last season), but he'll be the man nonetheless while Roethlisberger's knee heals. Pittsburgh's offense has so far survived and even thrived without starting center Maurkice Pouncey, but the unit will really be put to the test over the next month-plus. ... While Baltimore fans would like to blame a tough early schedule for their 0-3 start, there's really no excuse for that loss in Oakland, no matter how much better than expected the Raiders have looked so far. While the run defense remains stout and the pass rush has actually muddled along without Terrell Suggs, the secondary has been torched and the Marc Trestman offense has yet to gain any momentum. The team isn't as bad as it's looked, at least based on the talent on the roster, but from the outside it's sometimes hard to tell when a locker room has quit on its coaching staff. A road game in Pittsburgh isn't usually the best place to turn things around, either. ... Speaking of that Marc Trestman offense, Justin Forsett has been a bust so far, averaging 55 combined yards a game and failing to find the end zone. Don't give up on him just yet, though. Forsett's actually fifth in the NFL among running backs in targets with 18 (behind Lance Dunbar, Darren Sproles, Jamaal Charles and Dion Lewis. Welcome to the Year of the Scatback, folks), so while he hasn't actually done anything with them yet, that volume is vintage Trestman and points to better days ahead for Forsett.

Predictions: Forsett has a Lewis-like game, hitting for 110 combined yards. Joe Flacco throws for 270 yards and a score to Maxx Williams, while Justin Tucker cleans up with four field goals. Le'Veon Bell tops Forsett, gaining 120 combined yards and a touchdown, while Vick struggles, rushing for 40 yards (including a two-point conversion) but throwing for less than 200 yards with a TD to Darrius Heyward-Bey and a pick. Steelers, 21-19

N.Y. Jets vs. Miami (+2) at London - Sunday, 9:30 a.m. EDT

Comments: Eng-u-lund swings like a pendulum do, and so do the Jets, who went from looking like possible Super Bowl contenders in the first two games of the season to looking like chumps against the Eagles in Week 3. It was considerate of Brandon Marshall to try to erase memories of the butt fumble while Mark Sanchez was back in town, though. A healthy Eric Decker (knee) and Chris Ivory (quad) would help the offense return to form, but Decker didn't practice Wednesday and the trip to London as well as the early start time stateside could make it tough to get read on whether either will play if they get the dreaded game-time decision designation. ... At least the Jets have only looked bad for one game. The Dolphins have looked bad all year, with a toothless defense failing to support an inconsistent offense, and the only reason they aren't 0-3 is a Jarvis Landry punt return in Week 1. Rishard Matthews' emergence is a nice story, but it also highlights how offseason acquisitions Greg Jennings and Kenny Stills have flopped. The team's Week 5 bye can't come soon enough. ... With just seven tackles through three games, Ndamukong Suh seems to have retired to Florida rather than taking his talents to South Beach. The Miami defense continues to be far less than the sum of its parts, and instead of dominating with Suh in the middle of the defensive line it sits 26th in the league in total yardage allowed (391 yds per game), 19th in points allowed (24.7 pts per game), 23rd in QB rating against (101.8 QBR) and tied for last with a paltry one sack through three games. Defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle and head coach Joe Philbin need to find a way to turn things around fast if they want to keep their jobs.

Predictions: Ivory plays, but splits snaps with Bilal Powell and neither rushes for more than 60 yards. Ryan Fitzpatrick throws for 260 yards and, for the fourth straight game, two scores, this time to Marshall and Devin Smith. Lamar Miller starts but gains only 60 combined yards, though he does score his first touchdown of the season. Ryan Tannehill hits Jordan Cameron for a TD but is otherwise held in check. Jets, 23-17

Jacksonville (+9) at Indianapolis - Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: While Derek Carr thrives in Oakland, Teddy Bridgewater works on his game management skills behind Adrian Peterson and Johnny Manziel makes heroic cameos off the Browns bench, Blake Bortles is having a hard time justifying his 2014 draft position. His 78.3 QB rating is fifth-lowest among quarterbacks who have started three games this year, and while he certainly doesn't have the supporting cast of his sophomore rivals, he also simply hasn't looked good. A game against a reeling Colts defense that just allowed Marcus Mariota and the Titans to hang 33 points on it seems like it will be a nice pick-me-up for Bortles, but Vontae Davis (concussion) should be healthy enough to blanket Allen Robinson, and beyond that, who does he have to throw to? Someone else is going to have to step up if the Jags are even going to keep this one close. ... Bortles might have the fifth-lowest QB rating in the league, but dead last with a putrid 65.0 QBR and a league-leading seven INTs is none other than Andrew Luck. While you can blame the Bills and Jets defense for his poor form in the first two weeks, against the Titans he still didn't surpass 300 yards passing or throw more TDs than INTs, and there's now the specter of a shoulder injury hanging over him in practice. If the issue is as minor as Chuck Pagano would like you to believe, this could be the game in which Luck busts out, as the Jags defense can't really slow anyone. If not, consider the AFC South well and truly up for grabs. ... Part of the reason for Luck's struggles could be the state of his receiving corps. T.Y. Hilton's been gimpy with a knee injury, and free-agent signee Andre Johnson simply looks done, catching just seven passes for 51 yards on a whopping 18 targets. Even his two-headed tight end hydra is down a head thanks to another Dwayne Allen injury. That void at receiver has allowed Donte Moncrief to shine, though, so once Hilton is up to full speed again the Colts offense could start clicking.

Predictions:T.J. Yeldon has his best day as a pro so far, rushing for 70 yards and a touchdown. Bortles gets picked off twice but throws for 250 yards and hits Allen Hurns again for a TD. Corey Grant also returns a kickoff to the house on Adam Vinatieri's first non-touchback of the year. Frank Gore rushes for 60 yards, while Luck has his first 300-yard game, first three-TD game and first turnover-free game of the season, hitting Hilton, Moncrief and Coby Fleener for touchdowns. Colts, 30-24

N.Y. Giants (+6) at Buffalo - Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Those who jumped on Victor Cruz in anticipation of his return can just jump back off now, as a setback in Wednesday's practice all but rules him out for Week 4. The ongoing calf injury is worrisome given all the other lower-body injuries he's had in his career, but at least it's in the opposite leg from the one he tore his patellar tendon in last year. The Giants don't get their bye until Week 11, so this likely will remain a week-to-week thing until Cruz finally sees a snap. ... The Giants offense is a model of health compared to the Bills, though. LeSean McCoy was already expected to sit this one out with a hamstring injury, and now Sammy Watkins looks like he'll miss Week 4 as well with a calf injury. Even Tyrod Taylor has a bit of a wonky ankle, though he should play. Despite the star-quality names the injuries won't change Buffalo's plans much. Rookie Karlos Williams looks like he can ably fill in for Shady in the backfield, and Watkins only had 13 targets through three games anyway. Taylor may have to carry a little more of the load, but after becoming the first Bills quarterback since the sainted Jim Kelly with a completion percentage of 70 percent or higher in three consecutive starts, he seems up for the job. ... New York, incidentally, has the honor of being the first defense to allow more than 1,000 passing yards this year, so if Watkins does miss the game as expected, Robert Woods (who saw 53 snaps last week after Watkins got hurt) becomes a very interesting short-term play.

Predictions: No Giants running back gains more than 40 yards on the ground, but Shane Vereen does end up with 70 combined yards. Eli Manning throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to Odell Beckham and Rueben Randle, but also throws his first two INTs of the season. Karlos Williams bangs out 80 yards and a score, and Taylor passes for 220 yards and rushes for another 50 while throwing TDs to Woods and Charles Clay. Bills, 27-17

Carolina at Tampa Bay (+3) - Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments:Cam Newton has finally started to figure out that Greg Olsen is the only reliable target on the Panthers' roster, and as a consequence in Week 3 he had his best day in terms of passing yards since early 2011. This isn't a trend likely to change in Week 4, either. Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert are both limping and while the Buccaneers' defense has good numbers this season against tight ends, the only TE of any note that it's faced is Delanie Walker, who hit the Bucs up for 43 yards and a touchdown before injuring his wrist in the third quarter of the opener. Until someone else starts proving they deserve the ball (looking at you, Devin Funchess), the Carolina offense is going to be the Cam and Greg Show. ... Newton's fellow first overall pick, Jameis Winston, hasn't exactly set the league on fire. He's completed less than 50 percent of his passes in two of his three starts and has shown a tendency to get locked in on one receiver. Of course, when that receiver is a healthy Mike Evans (who saw 17 of Winston's 36 attempts last week), that's not necessarily a recipe for failure. The Panthers' pass defense has looked good though and is one of seven teams to hold QBs to less than a 60 percent completion rate this season, so expect another scattershot performance from the Bucs rookie. ... Charles Sims' big TD catch last week should be the sign Doug Martin owners need to start divesting themselves of Tampa's nominal starter, or at least park him on the bench. Carolina's run defense allows just 3.3 yards per carry, second fewest in the league, so the chances of a Martin breakout are slim, and every time the Bucs fall behind, Sims becomes their backfield weapon of choice. That doesn't necessarily mean Sims' stock is rising much, though even Tampa's coaches have to start getting ideas from the success of players like Dion Lewis and Devonta Freeman, but Martin increasingly looks like he's stuck in a timeshare dictated by game flow rather than who has the hot hand.

Predictions: Stewart starts but rushes for only 40 yards. Newton doubles that on the ground, runs for one score and throws a second one to Olsen. No Bucs back gains more than 50 combined yards, while Winston finds Evans in the end zone but throws two picks. Panthers, 23-10

Philadelphia at Washington (+3) - Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Let's assume that the PHI-WAS game actually happens this week, and that Hurricane Joaquin proves to be more like the mildly annoying Joaquin of "Signs" rather than the outright disaster Joaquin of "I'm Still Here." Even if it's just rainy and windy Sunday, that will simply encourage both offenses to focus on the run game and take the ball out of Sam Bradford's and Kirk Cousins' hands. (Cue the chorus of "How much more encouragement do they need?") While that game flow would seem to favor Washington's thunder-and-thunder backfield of Alfred Morris and Matt Jones, most of their damage has actually been done this season on runs and sweeps to the left (46 percent of their runs have come off left tackle or wider), which could be tough to replicate on a field offering poor footing. Then again, Eagles running backs have been stuffed in the backfield more frequently than any team, so you can't really count on their offensive line to sustain much of a running game between the tackles either. This one could be a wet, slow slog. ... Given the possible field conditions, DeMarco Murray could find himself inactive again rather than risk aggravating his hamstring injury, regardless of how much he practices this week. If Ryan Mathews has another good game in his absence, it's going to be tough for Chip Kelly to justify giving Murray the starting gig back when he finally gets healthy. The same inactive scenario would apply to DeSean Jackson, but since he hasn't started practicing again the weather is likely a moot point in his case. ... Washington should probably consider itself lucky if the weather shuts down the passing games. Both starting corners are hurt (DeAngelo Hall is out with a toe injury, while Chris Culliver is questionable with a knee injury) and Eli Manning lit them up pretty good last Thursday. If the light bulb is ever going to go on for Bradford, this probably would have been the game for it to happen. Eagles fans will just have to wait for next week's game against that tasty Saints secondary to see if it happens.

Predictions: Mathews starts and gains 70 yards and a touchdown. Darren Sproles is also busy, gaining 80 combined yards. Bradford throws for less than 150 yards but somehow still manages to get intercepted. Jones and Morris take control of the game, each topped 80 rushing yards and a score, while Cousins doesn't make any glaring mistakes. Washington 17-10

Oakland at Chicago (+3) - Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: I'm not entirely sold on the Raiders yet, since it's not like they've had a tough schedule so far, but I will admit that Derek Carr, Latavius Murray and Amari Cooper have the makings of a fine set of triplets. The offensive line has also been a surprise too, as Carr has been sacked only once in his two-and-a-half games. As long as the second-year QB continues to get a bit of time and his two main weapons are healthy, this looks like a team capable of putting some points on the board. ... I am, however, sold on the fact that the Bears have packed it in for the season. The Jared Allen deal wasn't earth-shaking, and salary dumps have different implications in the salary cap NFL, but if I had to bet on any team picking first overall in the 2016 draft, it would be da Bears. Jared Goff can probably start apartment hunting in Chicago right now. Last week's absolutely pitiful offensive showing against the Seahawks, in which they punted 10 times and advanced the ball past midfield only once (and got as far as the Seattle 45-yard line when they did), can't entirely be blamed on Jimmy Clausen no matter how easy it would be to do so. John Fox's bloodless, conservative offensive approach knee-capped Clausen before the game even started. Two games against the Lions and one each against the Niners and Bucs could keep them from a winless campaign, but even when Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery get healthy they could just keep the team within 10 points instead of 20 most weeks. ... Jeffery, incidentally, was back at practice this week, albeit in a limited capacity, as was Cutler. Cutler almost certainly won't play in Week 4, but Jeffery could return.

Predictions: Murray rips through the Bears' defense for 120 yards and two scores, while Carr has a fairly quiet day but does hit Cooper for a TD. Matt Forte gains 110 combined yards and a touchdown, while Clausen finds Martellus Bennett for a TD. Jeffery plays but is ineffective. Raiders, 24-23

Houston (+6.5) at Atlanta - Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments:Devonta Freeman's big day against the Cowboys opened a lot of eyes, but the hidden story of that game was how paper-thin the Dallas defensive line is. The Cowboys were down two starters in DE Greg Hardy and DT Terrell McClain, Hardy's replacement in Jeremy Mincey and Mincey's passing-down replacement in Randy Gregory. Once the offense stopped moving the ball in the second half, tilting the time of possession battle in Atlanta's favor, a collapse was basically inevitable as that front line became exhausted. Freeman is certainly an interesting talent, but I don't think it's at all a foregone conclusion that he will continue starting once Tevin Coleman's ribs heal. A timeshare might be the best he can hope for. ... Arian Foster continues to inch closer to a return from his groin surgery, but Alfred Blue's explosion against the Bucs last week could give the Texans enough confidence to put it off one more game, or at least break him in slowly with a reduced workload. Whenever Foster does return, though, he'll have a very favorable schedule. Houston's next four games are against the Colts, Jags, Dolphins and Titans, not exactly dominant run defenses. If you're going to trade for him, this could be your last chance. ... While Foster's been on the shelf, though, DeAndre Hopkins has gotten a chance to shine. He's seen at least 11 targets in every game, and his seven red-zone targets are only one short of league-leader Julio Jones. Foster's return will shift the balance of the offense back toward the run, but it will be Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts feeling the brunt of that. If only his quarterback wasn't Matt Ryan's inaccurate opposite, Ryan Mattell... err, Ryan Mallett.

Predictions: Foster does play and rushes for 70 yards and a TD despite splitting carries with Blue. Mallett throws for 230 yards and two touchdowns to Hopkins and Chris Polk. Freeman gets held to 80 combined yards, but Ryan fires for 320 yards and three touchdowns to Jones, Leonard Hankerson and Levine Toilolo. Jones tops 100 receiving yards for the fourth straight game. Falcons, 27-24

Kansas City (+3.5) at Cincinnati - Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Cool stat of the week: The Chiefs and Bengals are two of only four teams that have yet to give up a rushing touchdown this season. Given the talent in each backfield that seems highly unlikely to still be the case heading into Week 5, but now that Alex Smith has a taste of streak-breaking after hitting a wide receiver for a touchdown, I wouldn't put it past him to sneak one in himself. ... Speaking of Jeremy Maclin, his big game came primarily as a result of KC's early deficit against Green Bay. The Chiefs conservative play-calling and solid defense will typically keep games close and leave the offense in the hands of Jamaal Charles and Travis Kelce rather than asking Smith to look downfield, so it could be tough to him to repeat. In fact, other than this game and a Week 10 trip to Denver, there are no other obvious candidates for a repeat of that kind of game flow on their schedule. In other words, if you can sell high on Maclin based on last week's eruption, do it. ... Andy Dalton has the second-best QB rating in the league at 121.0, behind only the sublimely ridiculous Aaron Rodgers. Yes, he has a lot of weapons and yes, they're all healthy, but a correction is coming, especially with Seattle and a road trip to Buffalo on the immediate horizon. This week's game against a Chiefs pass defense that looked decent before it got Rodgers'ed isn't a pushover, either. Unlike Maclin, there are two ways to profit here, though. You can either try to sell high now, or you can try to buy low if he has a couple of mediocre efforts heading into Cinci's Week 7 bye. Dalton's not the second-best quarterback in the NFL, but he could still put up some pretty great numbers in the second half.

Predictions: Charles hits for 100 combined yards and a receiving touchdown, and Smith throws for 220 yards and two scores (Kelce gets the second) while rushing for another. Jeremy Hill re-asserts himself with a 100-yard day, and Dalton throws for 220 yards and touchdowns to A.J. Green and Giovani Bernard. Bengals, 23-21

Cleveland (+7.5) at San Diego - Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

Comments:Josh McCown bought himself some job security with last week's performance, but most of the damage came after the Raiders had been spotted a 17-point lead. His "big" year in Chicago in 2012 was driven primarily by his ball security (13:1 TD:INT ratio in eight games), not his skill at moving the ball consistently, and while that's a great trait to have if you're a backup on a contender it's kind of useless for the starter on a team playing for the future. It's not like the Browns even have a young but talented receiving corps to develop, as 30-year-old tight end Gary Barnidge was McCown's favorite target in Week 3. Regardless of what you think about Johnny Manziel, the Browns should be finding out now whether he's capable of being their starting QB, not wasting time on a veteran placeholder. ... Speaking of developing players, Duke Johnson flashed some of his pass-catching ability during that futile comeback attempt, and given Isaiah Crowell's ineffectiveness it seems just a matter of time until the rookie starts getting a more significant share of the backfield work. The offensive line hasn't been good, and the schedule has a rough stretch (three top-10 run defenses in four weeks, starting with Denver in Week 6), but like Manziel at QB, the team really has nothing to lose by giving Johnson the ball and seeing what he can do with it. How long it takes Mike Pettine to figure that out is the big question. ... I hope you've been patient with Melvin Gordon. The first-round pick hasn't had much of a start to his career, but his 4.3 yards per carry isn't bad by any means, and this week he gets to exploit a Browns run defense allowing the most yards per game (158.3) and second-most yards per carry (4.9) in the league. Oh, and Latavius Murray's 54-yard scamper against them last week was the longest run of the season so far by anybody. Giddy up.

Predictions: Crowell rushes for 70 yards, but Johnson also picks up 60 combined yards. McCown struggles, throwing for less than 200 yards and a touchdown to Brian Hartline. Gordon explodes for 160 yards and two TDs, while Philip Rivers throws for 260 yards and scores to Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead. Chargers, 31-13

Green Bay at San Francisco (+9) - Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Comments: After their amazing home showing against the Vikings in Week 1, the Niners defense coughed up 43 points in Pittsburgh and 47 points in Arizona. Logically, they should then get hammered for 51 by the Packers, right? Sadly, that doesn't seem unreasonable. Aaron Rodgers' 8.5 yards per pass attempt might seem outstanding, but it's nothing compared to the 10.0 yards per attempt the San Francisco defense is giving up. They're back at home, which counts for something, but it won't count for nearly enough. ... I have to admit, my crush on Ty Montgomery didn't dissipate after last week's two-target performance. He was on the field for almost every play due to Davante Adams' wonky ankle, is willing and able to block (a rare quality in a rookie receiver) and while Rodgers isn't used to looking his way often yet, he seemed to be open a fair bit. Randall Cobb and James Jones rightly command a lot of Rodgers' attention as veterans he's comfortable with, but I suspect after reviewing the game film from the win over the Chiefs, the QB will try to get the kid more involved. If Adams is on the shelf much longer, he might not have a job waiting for him when he gets healthy. ... If there's a sliver of a chance here for the 49ers, it'll come from the same thing that got them their win over the Vikings, namely Carlos Hyde's legs. He's not on the injury report this week, and the Packers defense is giving up a league-high 5.0 yards per carry. The Pack can score quickly enough that a ball control gameplan doesn't necessarily help, but it can't hurt, and it's not like Colin Kaepernick is going to win them the game, right?

Predictions:Eddie Lacy rushes for 80 yards and a score. Rodgers hits for 320 yards and three TDs to Cobb, Montgomery and Richard Rodgers, with Cobb topping 100 receiving yards. Hyde rushes for 110 yards and a touchdown, while Kaepernick keeps it close, throwing for 280 yards and touchdowns to Torrey Smith and Reggie Bush. Packers, 34-27

St. Louis (+6.5) at Arizona - Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Comments: Hands up everyone who thought the quarterback and wide receiver with a combined age of 67 would tear it up like this. Yeah, didn't think so. Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald have been incredible, and the Cardinals suddenly have an embarrassment of riches on offense, with three dangerous running backs and multiple targets for Palmer that opposing defenses have to account for. The Rams' pass defense has been good, allowing just two TDs through the air and racking up 13 sacks, but it's hard to imagine anyone containing the Cards at the moment. ... One of the Arizona targets who hasn't shown up yet is Michael Floyd, but that could change this week. He seems just about recovered from the surgery to repair his dislocated fingers, and John Brown is less than 100 percent due to a shoulder issue. If you're looking for a bye week or injury fill-in and he's been impatiently cut loose, keep him in mind. ... Todd Gurley didn't exactly take the league by storm in his debut, and he doesn't figure to shine this week either, as the Cards defense ranks in the top 10 in both running yards allowed and yards per carry allowed and he still seems to be in a time share with Tre Mason. His workload should increase, though, and the Rams next two opponents (the Packers and Browns) rank 31st and 32nd in yards per carry against, with a bye week in between. Gurley should look like a first-round pick soon enough.

Predictions: Gurley and Mason share the load again, with neither gaining more than 40 yards. Nick Foles has his best statistical day as a Ram to date, throwing for 270 yards and TDs to Brian Quick and Jared Cook. Andre Ellington sits out again, and Chris Johnson rushes for 80 yards with David Johnson finding the end zone. Palmer has a fairly quiet game by his 2015 standards, throwing for 240 yards and touchdowns to Fitzgerald and Floyd. Cardinals, 27-20

Minnesota (+6.5) at Denver - Sunday, 4:25 pm EDT

Comments:Adrian Peterson has been the monster most everyone expected, and the Vikings defense has done a good job keeping people out of the end zone, but the result of that ground-and-pound strategy has been a truly awful start for Teddy Bridgewater, who's averaging barely 150 yards a game and less than seven yards per attempt. It's not that he's looked particularly bad (aside from the first half of Week 1's loss), it's just that the team hasn't needed him to do much more than give the ball to AP to keep the chains moving. This could well be the week that starts to change, as a Broncos defense allowing 3.5 yards per carry could keep Peterson in check while Peyton Manning puts the Vikings in an early hole. Until Bridgewater actually demonstrates he's capable of useful fantasy numbers he's hard to roster in most leagues, though, no matter what kind of theoretical upside he has. ... Making Bridgewater's job more difficult is the state of his receiving crew. Mike Wallace has yet to show anything, which isn't that surprising for an aging speed merchant now with his third organization, and Charles Johnson (ribs) and Jarius Wright (hand) haven't practiced yet this week. Mounting a comeback with Kyle Rudolph and Cordarrelle Patterson as your main options wouldn't seem to be a very enticing proposition, but that's what young Teddy could be looking at. ... As for Manning, he popped a 7.7 YPA in last week's win and is putting his own Week 1 worries further and further behind him. A three-game stretch in which he gets to face the Vikings, Raiders and Browns heading into Denver's bye seems like a recipe for some big numbers.

Predictions: Peterson is held to 90 yards and a score. Bridgewater opens up things in the second half and throws for a season-high 260 yards but only one touchdown, to Wallace, though he does run for a second one. C.J. Anderson has his first decent game of the season, rushing for 70 yards and a TD, while Manning throws for 270 yards and three touchdowns, two to Demaryius Thomas and one to Owen Daniels. Broncos, 31-21

Dallas (+4) at New Orleans - Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EDT

Comments:Drew Brees practiced this week and said all the right things about his shoulder, but I'll believe he's actually playing when he takes the field. Luke McCown is coming off a solid game and while Dallas doesn't have much of a pass rush, it would only take one awkward landing for Brees to be knocked out for a much longer stint. Even if he does play, that's not necessarily good news for the team's passing game given how limited he might be. ... The Cowboys second-half collapse against the Falcons last week had a lot of contributors, but one of the primary ones was an incredibly conservative game plan for Brandon Weeden. Once the Atlanta defense realized he wasn't going to throw farther than about five yards from the line of scrimmage, it was able to load up the box, shut down the running game and swarm to whichever tight end or running back caught Weeden's latest tiny toss. The coaching staff should loosen the reins this week against a Saints defense allowing 9.9 yards per target and a 119.6 opposition QB rating, the second-highest marks in the league in both categories, but the Cowboys still seem far more worried about the risk of a Weeden turnover than they are hopeful that he'll make a big play. Even against this vulnerable New Orleans secondary, don't expect much from Tony Romo's backup. ... Joseph Randle is coming off a three-TD game, but the Cowboys don't want him to get complacent and have begun making noises about working Christine Michael into the backfield mix. Don't be fooled into thinking Michael is suddenly a threat, though. This is still Randle's job, and while he may not get a bellcow workload, the only thing that will keep him from getting the majority of touches is injury or off-field stupidity.

Predictions: Randle gains 80 yards and a touchdown, while Weeden throws for 230 yards and TDs to Terrance Williams and Jason Witten. Mark Ingram busts out for 100 yards and a score. McCown starts but can't repeat last week's performance, throwing for less than 200 yards and two INTs, though he does connect with C.J. Spiller for a touchdown. Cowboys, 24-20

Detroit (+9.5) at Seattle - Monday, 8:30 pm EDT

Comments:Kam Chancellor's case for a raise got a whole lot stronger after last week's shutout of the Bears, but it was only the Bears. The Seahawks' defense still hasn't been the dominant unit we've come to expect, ranking uncharacteristically low in categories like QB rating against (104.3, 28th in the league) and rushing yards allowed per game (100.3, 15th in the league). The Lions' offense hasn't exactly been firing on all cylinders this year either, but this isn't the one-sided affair it might appear. ... Both backfields could lean heavily on rookies. Marshawn Lynch hasn't practiced yet this week due to his hamstring injury, but the 'Hawks might have to lock him out of the stadium to keep him from playing. Whether Beast Mode suits up, though, Thomas Rawls should get significant carries on the heels of his 100-yard effort against Chicago. Joique Bell is also hurt, this time with an ankle injury, so Detroit might finally be willing to give Ameer Abdullah more than a dozen or so touches, just to see what happens. It can't be worse than the "production" they've gotten from their committee approach. ... It's hard to say who's been more disappointing, Calvin Johnson or Jimmy Graham. Megatron, at least, is still seeing a high volume of targets with 30 in the last two games, he just hasn't done a lot with them. Thanks, Matthew Stafford! Graham, on the other hand, has been effective when Russell Wilson calls his number, it just hasn't happened all that often. His 18 targets on the year is 10th among tight ends, and while his five red-zone targets is only two behind the league leaders (Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen and a surprising Heath Miller) it's hardly the kind of volume you'd expect from a player considered among the elite at his position. The Seahawks presumably traded for Graham for a reason, they just can't seem to figure out what that reason is. A Lions defense that's already allowed three tight-end TDs in three weeks might be a good time to start, though.

Predictions: Abdullah has a solid game, picking up 80 combined yards and a touchdown. Stafford throws for 260 yards and TDs to Johnson and Golden Tate but also gets picked off twice. Rawls starts and rushes for 70 yards, while Wilson chips in 50 on the ground and throws for 270 yards with three scores, two to Graham and one to Jermaine Kearse. Seahawks, 27-24

Last week's record: 11-5, 9-7 ATS
Season to date: 33-15, 28-19-1 ATS