This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.
The Week 15 NFL main slate begins Sunday at 1 p.m. EST and features 13 games. Byes won't be a factor for the rest of the 2024 regular season, and only the Thursday Night Football (Rams-49ers) and Monday Night Football (Bears-Vikings and Falcons-Raiders) participants play outside the main slate. Notably, Sunday Night Football (Packers-Seahawks) is part of the main slate for Week 15. Yahoo will be running plenty of NFL DFS contests for Week 15, but the biggest is the NFL $100K Guaranteed contest, which pays out a guaranteed prize pool of $100,000 to the top 1,144 finishers, including $20,000 to the winner. You can submit up to 150 entries into this contest, which has a maximum total capacity of 5,850 entries but will still run if it doesn't fill, potentially providing you with enhanced odds of winning, also known as overlay.
Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared towards head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.
Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order) while especially affecting high-volume pass-catchers. Your NFL $115K Guaranteed lineup will consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and one D/ST unit. Suggested Week 15 plays include a familiar QB-WR stack, a pair of NFC East RBs in favorable matchups, and bargain options at TE and D/ST.
QUARTERBACK
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA at HOU ($31): Tua has surged recently, recording over 23.5 fantasy points in each of his last four starts after failing to reach that threshold in any of his first five outings. He has an 11:0 TD:INT during this strong stretch while averaging 325.3 passing yards per game. Tagovailoa's poised to keep rolling against a Texans defense that's tied with Atlanta for the most passing TDs allowed this season (26). It's expected to be over 70 degrees Sunday in Houston, and NRG Stadium has a retractable roof, so the elements won't bother Miami's warm-weather offense.
Honorable Mentions:
Jayden Daniels, WAS at NO ($34); Kyler Murray, ARI vs. NE ($32); Justin Herbert, LAC vs. TB ($27)
Against the Grainers:
Josh Allen, BUF at DET ($37); C.J. Stroud, HOU vs. MIA ($25); Aaron Rodgers, NYJ at JAC ($23)
RUNNING BACK
Brian Robinson, WAS at NO ($27): Fresh out of a bye and leading a backfield without Austin Ekeler (concussion), Robinson's likely to take on a substantial workload against a Saints defense that's tied for the second-most rushing TDs allowed to RBs (14). Robinson should benefit from a favorable game script, as the Commanders will probably play from ahead against a 5-8 Saints team that's unlikely to have starting QB Derek Carr (hand/concussion). Washington's lead back has eight rushing TDs in nine games this season and has topped 100 yards on the ground three times.
Rico Dowdle, DAL at CAR ($26): Dowdle reached 100 rushing yards for the first time in his career with 112 yards on the ground and a TD against the Giants on Thanksgiving, then immediately topped that threshold again in Week 14 against the Bengals with a career-high 131 rushing yards. He has turned into the bell cow in Dallas' offense, just in time to face a Panthers defense that has allowed the most rushing yards (1,802) and rushing TDs (15) to RBs. Carolina has been more competitive lately, but that improvement has stemmed from gains in areas other than run defense. Despite losing by only a combined nine points to the Buccaneers and Eagles the last two weeks, the Panthers allowed those two teams to rush for a combined 445 yards and two TDs.
Honorable Mentions:
Derrick Henry, BAL at NYJ ($39); Joe Mixon, HOU vs. MIA ($37); Chuba Hubbard, CAR vs. DAL ($30)
Against the Grainers:
De'Von Achane, MIA at HOU ($33); Zach Charbonnet, SEA vs. GB ($18); Isaiah Davis, NYJ at JAC ($10)
WIDE RECEIVER
Tyreek Hill, MIA at HOU ($30): Tagovailoa's resurgence has unsurprisingly been accompanied by upticks from both Hill and Jaylen Waddle ($26). Both speedy wideouts are poised for success against a Texans secondary that has allowed the second-most touchdown catches to WRs (19), but Hill should be worth the extra $4 cap hit given his immense upside. Last season's league leader in both receiving yards (1,799) and receiving TDs (13) has found his scoring touch with a touchdown in four of the last five games, and Hill's 115 receiving yards against a far tougher Jets secondary last week marked his highest total since Week 1. Hill will likely see a lot of top Texans cornerback Derek Stingley, but Stingley hasn't exactly been stingy this season.
Malik Nabers, NYG vs. BAL ($27): Nabers has cooled off after a sensational start to his career, due in large part to poor QB play, but the talented rookie is still seeing massive volume, as his 11.5 targets per game comfortable lead the NFL (nobody else has more than 10.1). The Giants are likely to turn back to Tommy DeVito under center with Drew Lock having hurt his heel, but that should be just fine for Nabers, who had six catches for 64 yards in DeVito's only previous start this season. The Ravens are excellent against the run but have allowed the third-most receiving yards (2,302) and fourth-most TDs (16) to WRs, so Nabers is likely to compile some impressive numbers while enjoying a gargantuan target share as the 2-11 Giants try to play catch-up.
Garrett Wilson, NYJ at JAC ($26): Faced with another choice from a talented AFC East WR duo facing a beatable secondary from the AFC South, I'm leaning towards the slightly more affordable option this time in going with Wilson over a $28 Davante Adams. Wilson's twitchier with more big-play ability, and his season average of 67.5 receiving yards per game is slightly better than Adams' mark of 64.7 receiving yards per game as a member of the Jets. Both Wilson (114) and Adams (109) went over 100 yards last week against a tough Dolphins secondary as Aaron Rodgers threw for a season-high 339, and the Jets' passing game should face much less resistance from a Jacksonville secondary that has surrendered a 24:5 TD:INT this season. With top RB Breece Hall (knee) likely to miss a second consecutive game, the Jets will likely continue to let Rodgers air it out in this clash between 3-10 teams.
Honorable Mentions:
Courtland Sutton, DEN vs. IND ($32); Khalil Shakir, BUF at DET ($26); Calvin Ridley, TEN vs. CIN ($23)
Against the Grainers:
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA vs. GB ($31); Ladd McConkey, LAC vs. TB ($28); Jayden Reed, GB at SEA ($19)
TIGHT END
Stone Smartt, LAC vs. TB ($10): Snagging an affordable TE with upside is often a smart way to construct a lineup given the position's far lower scoring average compared to QBs, RBs and WRs. In this case, Smartt gives you the opportunity to do so, as he's expected to ascend to the top of the depth chart in the absences of Will Dissly (shoulder) and Hayden Hurst (hip). Smartt had three catches for 54 yards in the second half of the Week 14 loss to Kansas City after Dissly got hurt on the final play before halftime, and the third-year pro has the physical tools to be successful as a pass catcher, with 4.62 speed and 40-inch vertical in a 6-foot-4, 226-pound frame. The matchup also plays in Smartt's favor here, as the Buccaneers have allowed 917 receiving yards to TEs this season -- second-most in the NFL.
Honorable Mentions:
Trey McBride, ARI at NE ($25); David Njoku, CLE vs. KC ($23); Jake Ferguson, DAL at CAR ($16)
Against the Grainers:
Travis Kelce, KC at CLE ($20); Tucker Kraft, GB at SEA ($17); Dalton Kincaid, BUF at DET ($15)
DEFENSE
Cincinnati Bengals at TEN ($11): Cincinnati's much-maligned defense has been the reason for the Bengals' subpar 5-8 record, but this unit gets a reprieve here against a Titans offense that just produced a measly six points against the lowly Jaguars. Titans QB Will Levis has more turnovers (13) than touchdown passes (12) this season, with only the Giants (14.9) and Patriots (17.0) scoring fewer points per game than the Titans (17.5). In the nine games Levis has played from start to finish, the Titans have exceeded 17 points only twice, and one of those was a 19-point performance after Tennessee fell behind 28-0 to the Commanders. For all its faults, the Bengals D/ST has scored at least 8.0 fantasy points in five of its last eight games, so this is a low-risk, high-reward play at just $11 given the matchup.
Honorable Mentions:
Denver Broncos vs. IND ($18); Kansas City at CLE ($16); Washington Commanders at NO ($14)
Against the Grainers:
Baltimore Ravens at NYG ($19); Dallas Cowboys at CAR ($15); Arizona Cardinals vs. NE ($15)
