Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The 2-0 Bills are one of the few teams who have looked the way they were supposed to through two weeks, with the Super Bowl hopefuls taking care of a quality Arizona team in Week 1 before bullying their divisional sibling Dolphins in an easy Week 2 victory. Now they're poised to open the season 3-0 in a home game against the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2), who have been one of the league's biggest disappointments so far. The Jacksonville offense in particular has been ghastly, even with one of the more talented groups league-wide, and now they have to try to manage those struggles without one of their top offensive players (Evan Engram) as well as standout starting corner Tyson Campbell on defense. No win is guaranteed in the NFL and the Bills have to show up and take care of business, but the Jaguars are trying to figure out a lot of problems at once as the Bills are favored by 5.5 points at home. The over/under is 45.5.

QUARTERBACKS

Josh Allen ($12000 DK, $17500 FD) is always an exceedingly difficult fade on a single-game slate, because he can be one of the league's highest passing producers in any given week while also leading the Bills in whatever rushing production they post in the same game. Rather than Allen being thwarted by the defense, the bigger threat to his numbers in this game is probably the chance that the Bills win so easily that they don't need Allen to do nearly as much as he otherwise could. That was certainly the case in Week 2, when James Cook ran for three touchdowns and Allen attempted only 19 passes. Perhaps the Jaguars can force the Bills to play with more urgency, or at least make the Bills use Allen more specifically, but if the Bills continue to give Cook more opportunities than in past seasons it could come slightly at the expense of Allen's own rushing production.

Trevor Lawrence ($9800 DK, $13500 FD) is a good player but his coaches are some of the worst of recent NFL memory, which is an incredible realization to face about the guy who had to play under Urban Meyer his rookie year. Not that Doug Pederson and Press Taylor are worse than Meyer, but there is an immense futility to everything the Jaguars do under Pederson and bleakness can grow from even situations that seem harmless. The Buffalo defense is very much not harmless – even with some turnover from last year the Bills defense remains one of the most well-tuned in the league under Sean McDermott, making this look like yet another All Madden-level difficulty game for Lawrence, who could really use a little help.

RUNNING BACKS

James Cook ($10800 DK, $15500 FD) is arguably the key to the slate after rushing for three touchdowns in Week 2 but only two touchdowns in all of 2023. The Miami defense folded immediately last week and the Jaguars aren't guaranteed to do the same but... also, they might. The Bills defense projects to keep the offense in favorable field position, and if the Jaguars spend enough time on the field they could start giving up big gains to Cook. Ray Davis ($2800 DK, $7500 FD) is a talented backup who's capable of producing in this game, but at the very least it seems like Cook will get the first servings and veteran backup Ty Johnson ($1600 DK, $7500 FD) might get his foot into the door a little bit, too.

Travis Etienne ($11000 DK, $13000 FD) is one of the most talented players in the league, making it criminal what Pederson and Taylor have done to him. The Bills run defense has held strong through two weeks despite injuries at linebacker, so while the Bills run defense might not be at its strongest, it seems like it is nonetheless strong. If Etienne can transcend the circumstances it would be yet another testament to his rare abilities, but the Jaguars have a way of making everything as difficult as possible. Tank Bigsby ($3200 DK, $8500 FD) might be able to return as the RB2 after missing last week, but he's still listed as questionable with his shoulder injury. D'Ernest Johnson ($2400 DK, $7500 FD) is the third runner when applicable.

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

Khalil Shakir ($8600 DK, $10000 FD) has been the most reliable Bills receiver through two games, but it's a committee effort that splits the usage more horizontally than most offenses. It's possible that the Bills will at some point scale up the workload of Curtis Samuel ($4000 DK, $7000 FD) as he shakes off his preseason turf toe injury, but so far he has played less than not only Keon Coleman ($5800 DK, $10500 FD), but even Mack Hollins ($2200 DK, $7000 FD). None of this is to account for Dalton Kincaid ($8200 DK, $12000 FD), who seems like he has to break out any second, perhaps in this very game. Dawson Knox ($2000 DK, $6500 FD) is also hanging around still at tight end, but he's probably more of a punt play whereas Kincaid is probably more of a foundational one.

Christian Kirk ($7000 DK, $9500 FD) has been smothered by defenses through two weeks, a fact in itself that could tip you off to the struggles of the broader Jacksonville offense. Kirk is one of Jacksonville's best players, and one of your best players has two catches for 29 yards in two games your team is bad. Kirk has to get loose eventually, but this coaching staff is doing a number on him. Rookie Brian Thomas ($6600 DK, $11000 FD) is an unparalleled big-play threat, allowing him to do considerable damage even on a meager serving of viable targets. Gabe Davis ($5400 DK, $9500 FD) is more in the Kirk category – he needs the offense to be vaguely functional in order to produce – and needless to say he might be hoping for a bit of a Revenge Game here. With Engram out the top tight ends are Brenton Strange ($3000 DK, $9000 FD) and Luke Farrell ($800 DK, $6000 FD), though Strange is the one much more interesting. Parker Washington and to a lesser extent Devin Duvernay are present as punt pick options, though any production from them would be mostly random.

KICKERS

Cam Little ($4600 DK, $8000 FD) might turn out to be a good kicker for the Jaguars, but for now the rookie remains unproven with mixed indications, and moreover the game scripts might be challenging as long as the Jaguars offense is struggling so badly. At least he should be low-owned in any contest.

Tyler Bass ($5000 DK, $8500 FD) probably offers a bit more as a fantasy kicker, both because he's time-tested and because the Buffalo offense is operating at a high level league-wide, let alone relative to the Jaguars in this one game. Bass went over dougle-digit fantasy points five times in 2023, with a high of 17.0 at home against the Jets in Week 11, so he has a history of proving important on a couple single-game slates per year.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

It's difficult to see much hope for the Jaguars ($3600 DK, $8000 FD) defense in this particular game, but they do have the personnel to rush the passer and if they're on one of their better days guys like DE Josh Allen and Arik Armstead can wreck drives. Even if they do, however, in this game it seems like the Bills will just keep getting the ball back, and potentially quickly in each case. The Jaguars just aren't in a great spot right now, undermining the potential of their defense otherwise.

The Bills ($4400 DK, $9000 FD) could feast here if the Jaguars offense doesn't improve in a hurry. Sean McDermott is locked in so far this year, and even with some new faces the Bills defense looks like they've been playing together for years. Greg Rousseau looks monstrous at defensive end, and McDermott is probably a top-three defensive backs coach league-wide.