Game Spotlight: Mahomes Heads East

This article looks to provide in-depth break downs of the two highest projected point total games in the Sunday slate along with one other grab bag game of some significant DFS interest. This week's entry looks at PIT vs. KC, NO vs. CLE, and WAS vs. IND.

Pittsburgh vs. Kansas City, 1:00

Open: 49.5 O/U, -4.5 PIT
Live: 53.5 O/U, -5.5 PIT

This matchup might be the closest we get to a Big 12 box score in the NFL this year. We have two of the most explosive, talented offenses, with the tempo and playcall aggression egged on by Ben Roethlisberger's home splits and Kansas City's dubious defense. This is gonna get chalky for obvious reasons.

This game will feature at least six highly-owned players in DFS – both Roethlisberger (6900 DK, 7600 FD) and Pat Mahomes (6100 DK, 7500 FD) will be in demand at quarterback, James Conner (6700 DK, 7000 FD) should be one of the highest-owned running backs the second week in a row, Antonio Brown (8800 DK, 8900 FD) carries the week's highest projection at wide receiver with Juju Smith-Schuster (6400 DK, 7200 FD) not far behind, and Tyreek Hill (7600 DK, 8100 FD) looks borderline unstoppable for the other side. You know a matchup has a huge projected total when Kareem Hunt (6200 DK, 7800 FD) doesn't even register in the top five most popular targets and Travis Kelce (5900 DK, 6800 FD) is almost an afterthought.

The Pittsburgh side of this one is easy. Roethlisberger's home/road splits are notorious at this point, and with a homecoming against a defense this bad he almost cannot fail. Antonio Brown is reliably monstrous at all times but especially when Le'Veon Bell isn't in the lineup, and for as formidable as Conner played in a workhorse role last week, I think you still have to boost Brown's projection a bit over what it would be with Bell active. Conner projects for another excellent output himself against a Chiefs defense that allowed 14 receptions combined to Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler last week, resulting in 189 yards and a touchdown. It's easy to overlook JSS, but he too heads in with one of the best projections of the week after seeing eight targets on Roethlisberger's 41 attempts last week. That that outcome entailed a combined 11 targets for Conner and Justin Hunter makes me optimistic that JSS can go over the 20 percent target share in any given game, and in an environment like this that makes him one of the week's best bets to hit triple-digit yardage. There is no reason to think the Chiefs have the personnel to slow any of these guys.

Andy Reid's tendency to abandon the run coupled with Kansas City's underdog status bodes poorly for Hunt, but I think he's a strong tournament consideration on DK at least. With Mahomes an established threat, I think Hunt will see more favorable fronts than Carlos Hyde did against the Steelers last week, and Hunt does enough as a pass catcher that he can do damage even if Kansas City doesn't run much. I have to imagine that Hunt's pass catching is specifically a good way for the Chiefs to attack – inside Pittsburgh linebackers Vince Williams and Jon Bostic probably can't cover very well. It feels wrong expecting two bad games in a row from Kelce, but he gets a tough draw against a Steelers defense that allowed just 61 receptions for 753 yards and two touchdowns on 105 targets to tight ends last year.

I'm not sure what Pittsburgh's cover-2 tendencies might mean for Hill, but I'm leaning toward 'not much.' They'll pay extra close attention to where he's running and try to shift safety help toward him, but Hill has already shown the repeated ability to outrun deep safety coverage. The Steelers pass defense was generally strong last year, but they still allowed 13 catches of 40 or more yards, tied with the Raiders and Giants for the third-most 40-yard catches allowed. I think Hill is approaching a status where you don't care about matchups, but I like the chances of both him and Watkins getting open here. Watkins is one of my favorite GPP plays at receiver. With that said, I'll probably pass on Mahomes as he heads into a much more intimidating road environment than the roving franchise he torched last week.

New Orleans vs. Cleveland, 1:00

Open: 47.5 O/U, NO -7
Live: 49 O/U, NO -9.5

While I'd guess the PIT vs. KC game will get the most ownership in DFS this Sunday, this matchup in New Orleans will not be far behind. The usage in Cleveland's case is not as predictably channeled as in the case with the Saints or the two teams in the previously mentioned matchup, but there should be fantasy value on both sides.

The Saints are rather considerate of us and our struggle, making the big fantasy outputs of Alvin Kamara (9500 DK, 9000 FD) and Michael Thomas (8600 DK, 8800 FD) almost predetermined with the structure of the offense. Everything in this scheme exists to get those two loose, and because they're very good and Drew Brees (7200 DK, 8800 FD) doesn't miss, the whole affair is almost automatic. That's especially true when they're playing in the Superdome. Kamara and Thomas are great plays in cash and tournament games both, while Brees gives you a strong bet at the highest quarterback point total at an ownership less than a significantly cheaper Ben Roethlisberger, presumably the highest-owned quarterback on the slate. Austin Carr (3200 DK, 4500 FD) is a tempting tournament play after logging 43 snaps in Week 1 as the third receiver, but Ted Ginn (knee) was removed from the injury report Friday and poses substantial GPP curiosity himself (4800 DK, 6800 FD). Ben Watson (3400 DK, 5100 FD) has to be one of the best bargain tight ends on the slate.

Tyrod Taylor (5900 DK, 6600 FD) was kind of a mess against the Steelers, yet he still posted 20-plus fantasy points. This setting is probably a more favorable one, both in terms of venue and matchup. I think it's safe to say that New Orleans will run more man coverage than Pittsburgh did, and Taylor's anticipation issues are probably alleviated a bit by facing fewer disguised coverages.

I'm a huge fan of Jarvis Landry (6300 DK, 6700 FD) this week for cash and tournaments both, and Josh Gordon (5800 DK, 6300 FD) isn't far behind. I have Landry ahead of Gordon because I think he'll be targeted more this year generally, and I would imagine the Saints would prefer to assign Marshon Lattimore to Gordon rather than Landry. After Mike Evans' big game last week, though, there's plenty of reason to think Gordon can just beat Lattimore's coverage in that scenario. David Njoku (3000 DK, 5300 FD) is a compelling talent, but the matchup doesn't look great given that the Saints drew just 85 tight end targets last year, resulting in only 53 receptions for 577 yards and six touchdowns. To be fair, Njoku's projection might not be much different than usual – he's a touchdown-dependent boom-or-bust option.

Carlos Hyde (4900 DK, 6300 FD) won't be in any of my lineups, but if you see a competitive game script or one where the Browns secure a lead, Hyde would project for big returns. I'm more likely to target Duke Johnson in a DK tournament (4200) because I fully expect him to produce as a pass catcher in this shootout setting. The Browns need to get him the ball more generally – there's a good chance he's their best running back.

Washington vs. Indianapolis, 1:00

Open: 47.5 O/U, WAS -4.5
Live: 48.5 O/U, WAS -6

In a week where the likes of Alvin Kamara, James Conner, and Tevin Coleman draw substantial chalk, I find myself intrigued by going heavy with shares of Adrian Peterson (5500 DK, 6700 FD) in this, a home game with Washington favored by six points. The Colts defensive personnel is quite bad at a glance, and Joe Mixon had plenty of room to run last week. Chris Thompson (5900 DK, 6200 FD) looks like a great tournament play at the least. He basically functions as both the RB2 and WR2 of this offense.

Alex Smith (6000 DK, 7100 FD) looked fully in control in his first start under Jay Gruden, and the matchup might be even easier against the Colts. If Andrew Luck makes a game of this, then Smith should come through for his owners, because it's difficult to imagine Indianapolis posing much resistance. If there's usage for Smith, the numbers should follow easily enough.

As RotoWire's Jerry Donabedian pointed out, Jamison Crowder (4900 DK, 6000 FD) functioned as Washington's true WR3 against Arizona, playing far fewer snaps than Paul Richardson (4200 DK, 5700 FD) and Josh Doctson (4000 DK, 5700 FD). It's possible that Crowder had his reps limited to limit his chances of aggravating a groin injury that bothered him in training camp, but we could otherwise figure that his snaps might go down in scenarios where Washington has leads, at which point they prefer 2TE personnel to run out the clock. I think all three receivers make a fine case for tournaments since Luck should make this a closer game than Sam Bradford did. Richardson is playing through an AC joint issue, though, so I'll only be looking at Crowder and Doctson among the Washington receivers.

Jordan Reed (5000 DK, 6200 FD) is arguably the top tight end play on the slate, so there's that.

Luck's box score from last week led me to assume his throwing velocity deteriorated, necessitating a strictly horizontal dink-and-dunk offense. Based on the tape, though, his arm looked fine to me, knock on wood. Given that, I'm optimistic that T.Y. Hilton (6700 DK, 7200 FD) will eventually get going downfield after producing fewer than 10 yards per catch against the Bengals. I would even like Hilton's chances of burning Josh Norman or whoever else they put on him in this matchup. But I'm concerned that the absence of left tackle Anthony Castonzo will leave Luck uniquely vulnerable this week to the pass rush posed by Ryan Kerrigan and Preston Smith, so I won't be picking Hilton this week, as much as he can still contribute the second week in a row on short targets.

Ryan Grant (4300 DK, 4900 FD) figures to draw some interest, particularly on the former site, as he heads into a so-called Revenge Game against Washington. Grant's nine targets last week is a big total at a glance, but out of 53 targets that's not an especially high rate. I probably won't pick him. Jack Doyle (4000 DK, 5600 FD) is an interesting play to me, but I'll be staying away from Eric Ebron (3500 DK, 5500 FD) unless his play count picks up.