Exploiting the Matchups: Week 6 Start/Sit

As of Thursday morning, D.J. Chark was 68 percent started on Yahoo, lower than JuJu Smith-Schuster (83 percent) and Robert Woods (77 percent). Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers was at 72 percent, above Dak Prescott (65 percent) and Kyler Murray (54 percent).

I'm not saying preseason expectations are totally meaningless after five weeks, but we do have a large enough sample to place serious weight on many of the big surprises, i.e., Chark nearly doubling the fantasy production of Smith-Schuster and Woods, or Murray and Prescott sitting more than five points per game ahead of Rodgers.

That's not to say Rodgers, Smith-Schuster and Woods are poor options for the typical fantasy lineup; it's just that they're being started over better choices in some cases. My broader point? Any discussion of weekly matchups needs to account for these changes in baseline expectation. An "upgrade" for Baker Mayfield means he should have one of his better weeks in what's clearly a disappointing season, not that I expect him to put up 300 yards and three TDs.

Before we get into specific players, here are some of my favorite tools for analyzing matchups and determining player valuations each week:

• Jeff Erickson's weekly rankings
• RotoWire's weekly projections
• Betting odds
• RotoWire's pages for advanced stats and TE route data.
• Pace stats and DVOA from Football Outsiders
• Next Gen Stats from NFL.com
• Player Grades and Premium Stats from Pro Football Focus
• Personnel Grouping Frequencies and Run:Pass Ratios from SharpFootballStats.com
• airyards.com
• Opponent and teammate injuries
• Target share
• Snap counts
• Defense vs. Position stats

Note: Discussion below mostly is limited to players that are being started in 10-to-90 percent of lineups on Yahoo. There are plenty of other players with good or bad matchups, but we'll focus our energy on the guys most likely to be involved in difficult lineup decisions.

Upgrades

 QUARTERBACK

• Kyler Murray, ARZ vs. ATL

You probably didn't need my help to figure this one out, considering the Falcons surrendered 426 yards and five TDs on Deshaun Watson's 33 pass attempts last week. The extent of this upgrade can't be overstated, with Atlanta allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks while ranking 30th in Football Outsiders' DVOA against the pass (40.1%). The Falcons also create potential for snap volume beyond Murray's already-high standard, leading the league in overall pass-play rate (72 percent) and ranking seventh within the first three quarters of one-possession games (64 percent). The Falcons are sixth in total pace and fifth in neutral-situation pace, while the Cardinals are second in both. 

Along with his scrambling ability, the Cardinals' no-huddle offense has played a key role in Murray topping 16 standard-scoring fantasy points each week of his young career, even as he's struggled with passing efficiency. His average of 20.3 fantasy points is seventh-best among QBs, despite facing an early schedule that didn't have any gimme matchups before Week 5 in Cincinnati (season-high 25.4 FP). Murray should be treated as a top-10 QB for Week 6, potentially moving up as high as fifth or sixth if both David Johnson (back) and Christian Kirk (ankle) are able to play.

• Baker Mayfield, CLE vs. SEA

Between his early struggles, a Week 7 bye and a tough schedule ahead until mid-November, Mayfield is droppable in most single-QB formats, offering no real potential to live up to his ADP. On the other hand, he does have some one-week value as a bottom-of-the-barrel QB1 or else a solid QB2 in superflex leagues, facing a Seattle defense that's given up the seventh-most passing yards (1,418) while ranking 19th in DVOA against the pass (12.7%). Perhaps more important, the Seahawks haven't been able to get pressure on quarterbacks — 26th in sack rate (4.9) and t-30th in QB hits (18). New additions Jadeveon Clowney and Ezekiel Ansah have combined for just two sacks and five QB hits.

• Honorable Mentions: Matt Ryan, ATL at ARZ; Josh Rosen, MIA vs. WAS

RUNNING BACK

• Sony Michel, NE vs. NYG

Run defense has been one of the few bright spots for the Giants, or at least it had been until Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah rumbled for 208 yards on 31 carries last week. The Patriots aren't as difficult of a matchup from that perspective, but they're a tougher matchup in every other regard, which explains how they're 17-point favorites in a game that likely will be impacted by wind and rain. With Saquon Barkley, Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram all injured, Michel should be in for a busy second half while protecting a lead. The second-year pro saw just nine carries the first week after New England lost James Develin to a neck injury, but Michel jumped up to 17 and 16 rush attempts the past two weeks with replacement fullback Jakob Johnson playing 29 and 41 percent of snaps. Michel finally picked up some extra yards beyond what was blocked, with five of his six avoided tackles occurring within the past two weeks, per PFF.

• Kenyan Drake, MIA vs. WAS

Drake has played at least 53 percent of snaps each week this season, including three consecutive games with six or more carries and five or more targets prior to a Week 5 bye. The state of Miami's offensive line may keep him below 4.0 YPC all season, but the short passes should be valuable this week against a Washington defense that's given up the eighth-most catches (30) and ninth-most receiving yards (243) to running backs. Linebackers Jon Bostic and Cole Holcomb have struggled in coverage, allowing 30 catches for 263 yards and four touchdowns on 35 combined targets, per PFF. This is one of the few games all season where Miami actually has a decent shot to score multiple touchdowns.

• Damien Williams, KC vs. HOU

Williams was quiet on the stat sheet in his first game back from a knee injury, but his 56 percent snap share easily led the Kansas City backfield, ahead of LeSean McCoy and Darrel Williams (22 percent apiece). A role that largely relies on pass catching for production should work out well this week, with Houston allowing the most receptions (45) and second-most receiving yards (336) to running backs. Matchups with Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler and Alvin Kamara are a big part of that equation, but we've also seen Devonta Freeman (5-40-1) and Leonard Fournette (4-40-0) put up useful receiving lines against the Texans. Love it or hate it, Damien Williams is the lead back in Kansas City, accounting for 12 of the team's 14 RB touches last week against Indianapolis.

• Honorable Mentions: Devonta Freeman, ATL at ARZ; Duke Johnson, HOU at KC; Ronald Jones, TB vs. CAR; Adrian Peterson, WAS at MIA

WIDE RECEIVER

• Stefon Diggs, MIN vs. PHI

The beleaguered Philadelphia secondary essentially got a Week 5 bye, facing Luke Falk and the Jets instead of anything resembling a real NFL offense. Even after the gift, only three teams have allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers (29.3 per game), and only six have allowed more yards (959). In addition to obvious candidates like Julio Jones and Davante Adams, the list of players to reach 100 yards against Philadelphia this season includes Marvin Jones, Calvin Ridley and Terry McLaurin, each of whom also scored a touchdown.

Diggs has been held back by his team's run-heavy approach, and while it may have been discouraging to see another quiet game last week when Adam Thielen blew up, Diggs still holds semi-respectable marks for target share (18 percent) and air-yard share (36 percent). The real issue is an overall lack of volume for Kirk Cousins, who has a good chance to reach 30 pass attempts for the third time this season Week 6, facing an Eagles defense that's held RBs to 2.8 YPC while allowing 7.3 YPA to QBs. For all his struggles in terms of volume, Diggs still has impressive efficiency numbers — 11.0 YPT, and 2.12 yards per route places him 16th among 64 WRs with 20 or more targets, per PFF. 

• Dede Westbrook, JAX vs. NO

From preseason breakout candidate to forgotten man, Westbrook essentially is on pace for a repeat of 2018, averaging 4.6 catches and 45 yards per game. He seems to be rebounding from a slow start that included three drops in the first three weeks, catching 12 of 17 targets for 148 yards the past two games. D.J. Chark has emerged as the unquestioned No. 1 receiver in Jacksonville, but Westbrook, believe it or not, is tied for the team lead with 37 targets (22 percent share). Chark has earned his way to every-week-starter status in most fantasy leagues, and while his teammate is nowhere near that conversation, Westbrook at least makes sense for Week 6. Running 87 percent of his routes from the slot, Westbrook draws a primary matchup with Saints cornerback P.J. Williams, who has given up the third-most yards (209) and eighth-most yards per cover snap (1.57) in slot coverage this year (50-snap min.), per PFF. 

• Mohamed Sanu, ATL at ARZ

This matchup is friendly for every member of the Atlanta offense, but Sanu gets the biggest upgrade relative to his usual value, facing a Cardinals defense that's seen four players allow at least one touchdown in slot coverage, per PFF. All in all, Arizona defenders have been charged with 35 catches for 438 yards and six TDs on 47 slot targets, including huge games from Detroit's Danny Amendola and Cincinnati's Tyler Boyd. The issues may get even worse this upcoming week, with Budda Baker potentially replacing an injured Tramaine Brock (shoulder) as the top inside cover man. Brock has been bad enough already, but Baker takes it to another level when he's forced out of his more comfortable spot at safety (he gave up 50 catches for 512 yards and three TDs on 58 slot targets last year, per PFF). Sanu has an ideal setup, averaging 7.2 targets per game while playing 81 percent of his snaps in the slot.

• Honorable Mentions: Larry Fitzgerald, ARZ vs. ATL; Jarvis Landry, CLE vs. SEA; D.J. Moore, CAR at TB; Calvin Ridley, ATL at ARZ; Christian Kirk, ARZ vs. ATL; DK Metcalf, SEA at CLE; DeVante Parker, MIA vs. WAS; Auden Tate, CIN at BAL

TIGHT END

• Greg Olsen, CAR at TB

Week 5 donut and all, Olsen is 10th among tight ends in target share (17 percent) and ninth in PPR points (52.6), making him a no-doubt top-10 option in a week without Darren Waller or Evan Engram (knee). The 34-year-old has scored 81 percent of his fantasy points in two games, including 6-110-0 on nine targets when Carolina hosted Tampa Bay in Week 2. The Bucs have allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends (12.5 per game), with Jared Cook (4-41-1), Gerald Everett (5-44-1), Tyler Higbee (4-41-0) and Evan Engram (6-113-1) all enjoying productive outings in the three weeks since Olsen went off. Per PFF, the Bucs have two safeties (Jordan Whitehead, Mike Edwards) and two linebackers (Lavonte David, Kevin Minter) that have allowed more than 100 yards into their coverage this season (678 total). With slot corner M.J. Stewart also struggling — 252 yards, 1.52 per cover snap — quarterbacks have found it easy to attack the Bucs in the middle of the field.

• Mark Andrews, BAL vs. CIN

It isn't ideal to see Andrews with a shoulder injury on top of the foot issue that's limited his practice participation all season, but he's nonetheless drawn at least seven targets in every game, and Week 6 puts him up against a disgraceful defense. The Bengals haven't allowed many fantasy points to tight ends, but they have surrendered 11.3 YPT on just 19 passes. Andrews can survive a run-heavy game from the Baltimore offense, considering his 23 percent target share is fifth-largest among TEs.

• Honorable Mentions: Austin Hooper, ATL at ARZ; Matt LaCosse, NE vs. NYG

KICKER 

• Zane Gonzalez, ARZ vs. ATL

Gonzalez has a bunch of things working in his favor, starting with a team implied total of 24.5 points in a game with the second-largest over/under (51.5) of Week 6. The Atlanta defense is a hopeless sieve, and Kliff Kingsbury's cowardice on fourth-down decisions has supplied Gonzalez with a steady diet of gimmes — eight FGs in the 20-to-29-yard range already! The Cardinals can't possibly stay this bad in the red zone, but the matchup gives us some security via PATs if they happen to turn things around near the scoring area this week.

Honorable mentions: Matt Bryant, ATL at ARZ

Downgrades

QUARTERBACK

• Jared Goff, LAR vs. SF

Goff looked more like the 2017-18 version of himself last Thursday in Seattle, throwing for 8.1 YPA in the best performance so far this season from the Rams' struggling offensive line. There's cause for long-term optimism with this offense, but a Week 5 matchup versus the 49ers hints at more darkness before the dawn. San Francisco has held opponents to a league-low 53.5 completion percentage, ranking fifth in YPA (6.2), second in INT rate (5.4), fifth in sack rate (9.2) and first in DVOA against the pass (-61.4%). While a soft early schedule undoubtedly has played a role, the extent of the dominance shows legitimate quality, led by Nick Bosa and DeForest Buckner combining for six sacks and 15 QB hits in four games. An already-tricky matchup will become even tougher if the Rams are missing Brandin Cooks (concussion) and/or Todd Gurley (quad).

Not-so-Honorable Mentions: Jameis Winston, TB vs. CAR; Carson Wentz, PHI at MIN; Matthew Stafford, DET at GB; Daniel Jones, NYG at NE

RUNNING BACK

• Jordan Howard, PHI at MIN

Otherwise making a solid case for RB2 consideration, Howard drops back to the RB3/FLEX horde for Sunday's difficult road matchup. Philadelphia is tied for the seventh-smallest implied total (20.5) of Week 6, facing a Vikings defense that's given up 3.7 YPC and the fifth-fewest fantasy points (13.2 per game) to running backs. Darren Sproles' absence does free up some snaps and touches, but there's no guarantee Howard will be the one to benefit, rather than Miles Sanders or Corey Clement. In any case, Sproles accounted for just 17 snaps, four carries and one target the past two weeks. 

• Phillip Lindsay, DEN vs. TEN

Lindsay's talent is beyond reproach, but the sustainability of his early 2019 production isn't. He's fortunate to have three rushing touchdowns, working in a 55/45 timeshare with Royce Freeman in an offense ranked 19th in DVOA (-0.2%), 21st in yards per play (5.5) and 27th in points per game (18.0). My Hidden Stat Line column earlier this week noted a degree of uncertainty regarding Lindsay's advantage to-date near the end zone, after Freeman got carries from the 10-yard line and 5-yard line last week against the Chargers. 

A matchup with the Titans isn't exactly terrifying, but it's enough to push me toward other options when the player's circumstances already invite skepticism. Tennessee has given up the seventh-fewest fantasy points (14.8 per game) to RBs, allowing 4.5 YPC and 5.0 YPT while ranking 13th in DVOA against the run (-13.7%). This also isn't a great spot in terms of overall snap volume, with Tennessee ranked 22nd in neutral-situation pace while Denver is 21st.

• Not-so-Honorable Mentions: Tevin Coleman, SF at LAR; Miles Sanders, PHI at MIN; James White, NE vs. NYG

WIDE RECEIVER

• JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT at LAC

Most fantasy owners won't have the luxury of benching Smith-Schuster, but it's a worthwhile consideration for teams that are loaded at wide receiver or playing in shallow leagues. Averaging 6.6 targets per game in an offense ranked 29th in yards (280.6 per game) and 22nd in points (19.8), the 22-year-old wide receiver will catch his Week 6 passes from a struggling Mason Rudolph (concussion) or else third-string quarterback Devlin Hodges. Either way, JuJu figures to run the vast majority of his routes against shutdown corner Casey Heyward or slot man Desmond King, two of the league's best in their respective roles the past few seasons. The Chargers mostly have been a mess on defense, but they've given up the ninth-fewest fantasy points (21.4 per game) to WRs.

• Mike Williams, LAC vs. PIT

Williams is getting some attention after 13 targets last week, but the broader outlook still paints him as the Chargers' No. 3 pass-game option, with 17 percent target share the four weeks he's played (compared to 29 percent for Keenan Allen and 22 percent for Austin Ekeler). The Steelers generally have played much better defense since the first three weeks of the season, and their weak links in coverage are the linebackers, safeties and slot corner Mike Hilton. Outside corners Joe Haden and Steven Nelson have lived up to their hefty contracts, allowing 24 catches for 278 yards and two TDs on 41 combined targets (6.8 YPT), per PFF. Among 62 cornerbacks with 150 or more coverage snaps, Nelson ranks fourth at 0.70 yards allowed per snap, slightly ahead of Haden (0.72, 6th). That's all bad news for Williams, who has taken just 33 percent of his snaps in the slot this year, per PFF.

• Not-so-Honorable Mentions: Mike Evans, TB vs. CAR; Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB vs. DET; Geronimo Allison, GB vs. DET; Randall Cobb, DAL at NYJ; Nelson Agholor, PHI at MIN

TIGHT END

• O.J. Howard, TB vs. CAR

(Insert joke about Howard having more catches at Rays games than he does at Bucs games). Good, now that we've gotten that out of the way, let's rag on the tight end a little more. He really did go catchless the first time the Panthers played the Bucs, finishing without a single target on 55 snaps in Week 2. Things have gone only marginally better for him since then — seven catches for 109 scoreless yards on nine targets in three games. This isn't the best matchup for Howard to turn his season around, with Carolina allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends (4.0 per game) and the third-fewest yards per pass attempt overall (6.0). 

• Not-so-Honorable Mention: Gerald Everett, LAR at SF; Delanie Walker, TEN at DEN