Exploiting the Matchups: Week 12 Start/Sit

I've always viewed matchups as a secondary or tertiary concern for weekly player rankings, somewhere behind volume, talent and team context in terms of importance. I generally still believe that to be the case, but matchups seem to carry a bit of extra weight this season, as the best and worst defenses have been unusually far removed from league-average.

The Dolphins are on track for the worst defensive DVOA (22.0%) since the 2015 Saints (26.1%), while the Patriots (-32.1%) are on track for the best mark since the 1991 Eagles (-42.4%). The Bengals have given up 6.6 yards per play, which would be the most since those same 2015 Saints. The Patriots have allowed just 4.3 ypp, which would be the best since the 2009 Jets.

Part of that is a 10-game sample contributing to wider spreads than we'd typically see over a larger sample of 16 games, but both the Dolphins and Pats would still land at the extreme end of things if recent seasons were solely evaluated on the first 11 weeks.

We've also a bunch of extreme numbers for opponent fantasy scoring, including the Cardinals allowing 25.3 ppg to quarterbacks and 17.7 to tight ends (half PPR). No team in 2017 or 2018 allowed more than 22.1 ppg to QBs or 13.3 to TEs, but the Cardinals and Buccaneers both have been considerably more generous to both positions in 2019.

The Bucs also have given up a league-high 38.6 ppg to wide receivers, while only the Patriots have been tougher on RBs. Thoroughly dominant against the run and completely helpless to stop passing atacks, the 2019 Bucs are the strongest "funnel" defense in recent memory, facing 40.6 pass attempts per game even while carrying a minus-36 point differential.

We still need to be careful with how we apply matchups to lineup decisions, but the wealth of peculiar trends at least makes the whole process a bit more interesting.

Before we get into specific players, here are some of my favorite tools for analyzing matchups each week:

• Jeff Erickson's value meter
• RotoWire's weekly projections
• RotoWire's weekly composite rankings
• Betting odds
• RotoWire's pages for advanced stats and TE route data.
• Pace stats and DVOA from Football Outsiders
• Next Gen Stats from NFL.com
• Player Grades and Premium Stats from Pro Football Focus
• Personnel Grouping Frequencies and Run:Pass Ratios from SharpFootballStats.com
• airyards.com
• Opponent and teammate injuries
• Target share
• Snap counts
• Defense vs. Position stats

Note: Discussion below mostly is limited to players that are being started in 10-to-90 percent of lineups on Yahoo. There are plenty of other players with good or bad matchups, but we'll focus our energy on the guys most likely to be involved in difficult lineup decisions.

Note, Pt. 2: References to 'fantasy points' are based on scoring with 25/10 yardage, 4/6 TDs and 0.5 PPR, i.e., standard settings on Yahoo and FanDuel.

Upgrades

 QUARTERBACK

• Baker Mayfield, CLE vs. MIA

This matchup somehow is even better than it looks on paper after the Dolphins placed both of their starting safeties on injured reserve Wednesday morning. Reshad Jones (rib/chest) and Bobby McCain (shoulder) hadn't exactly been world beaters, but PFF did give them respectable grades, with the former ranking 27th and the latter 67th among 99 safeties with 100 or more snaps. Miami, of course, doesn't have much margin for error, sitting 32nd in pass defense DVOA (42.3%), 28th in fantasy points allowed to QBs (21.8) and 30th in net yards per attempt (7.5). It doesn't hurt that the Cleveland defense has its own pile of suspension/injury issues, potentially allowing Ryan Fitzpatrick to put enough points to keep the game competitive, which in turn could lead to more volume for Mayfield.

• Honorable Mentions: Matt Ryan, ATL vs. TB; Sam Darnold, NYJ vs. OAK; Jeff Driskel, DET at WAS; Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ at CLE; Mitchell Trubisky, CHI vs. NYG

RUNNING BACK

• Tevin Coleman, SF vs. GB

Coleman's four-TD breakout in Week 8 has been followed by a three-game slump, but we've at least seen some positive signs along the way, including three consecutive weeks with exactly four targets. And while his snap share (49 percent) didn't go up when Matt Breida (ankle) was inactive last week, Coleman easily got more touches than Raheem Mostert, holding a 12-to-6 advantage in carries and a 4-to-3 edge in targets. It looks like Breida will miss at least one more game, solidifying Coleman's volume against a Green Bay squad ranked 28th in run defense DVOA (0.9%), 29th in fantasy points allowed to RBs (25.6) and 30th in YPC allowed to RBs (4.9). Jordan Howard, Phillip Lindsay and Melvin Gordon all had their best fantasy performances of the season against the Packers, and each did it while splitting work with another running back that had at least 70 scrimmage yards in the same game.

• James White, NE vs. DAL

Last week I recommended J.D. McKissic, noting how the Cowboys are on pace for a third straight season in the bottom five for fewest receptions allowed to running backs. It's a predictable outcome for a zone-heavy defense that blitzes infrequently, with DC Rod Marinelli focused on stopping the run and eliminating long passes. As a result, the Cowboys are headed for a fourth consecutive year in the bottom 12 for opponent completion percentage and the top 10 for fewest yards allowed per completion. I'm not sure if their scheme "works" in a broader sense, but it certainly achieves its intention of forcing quarterbacks to settle for short passes.

In any case, the argument for White is much the same as the one I made for McKissic, but with the benefit of better QB play and safer volume (I didn't see Bo Scarbrough coming). White has been remarkably consistent with no fewer than 9.6 PPR points in any game, despite scoring just two touchdowns from 544 scrimmage yards. Between his steady target volume and the likelihood of positive TD regression over the next six weeks, White is considerably more valuable than his 54 percent start rate on Yahoo suggests. We've already seen his stable floor, and the ceiling should make an appearance soon enough.

• Latavius Murray, NO vs. CAR

There's always risk in starting a team's backup running back, especially one who has been held under 25 scrimmage yards on four separate occasions. This is the spot where it makes sense to role the dice on Murray, with the Saints favored by 9.5 points over a Panthers team ranked dead last in run defense DVOA (10.6%) and 29th in YPC allowed to running backs (4.8). If we narrow it down to the three games with Murray, Alvin Kamara and Drew Brees all healthy, Murray has respectable averages of 7.0 carries and 2.7 targets per game, along with snap shares of 27, 24 and 41 percent. That's good enough to warrant consideration as a bye-week/injury replacement for the less fortunate among us fantasy managers.

• Honorable Mentions: Jaylen Samuels, PIT at CIN; Bo Scarbrough, DET at WAS; Derrius Guice, WAS vs. DET

WIDE RECEIVER

• Calvin Ridley, ATL vs. TB

I initially thought this might be too obvious to warrant discussion, but then I saw that Ridley is only in 77 percent of starting lineups on Yahoo, putting him below Allen Robinson (80 percent) and Kenny Golladay (88 percent), among others. That's not to say Robinson and Golladay aren't solid Week 12 plays; it's just that Ridley is a better one. The 24-year-old is coming off the second-best performance of his young career, accounting for eight of the Falcons' 31 targets (26 percent) with both Austin Hooper (knee) and Devonta Freeman (ankle) out of the lineup last week in Carolina. Next up is the same optimal situation in terms of volume, this time playing indoors against a Tampa Bay defense ranked 30th in DVOA against the pass (27.6%), 32nd in fantasy points allowed to WRs (38.6) and t-21st in yards per target allowed to WRs (8.5). It's an easy smash spot for both Ridley and Julio Jones.

• DK Metcalf, SEA at PHI

Prior to a Week 11 bye, Metcalf strung together six consecutive games with more than 50 yards and/or a touchdown, including 16.3, 30.0 and 12.0 PPR points the past three games after his snap share jumped above 90 percent. He should find continued success Week 12, with his primary alignment on the left side of the offense creating a matchup against Eagles cornerback Ronald Darby, whose mark of 1.65 yards per cover snap places 99th among 107 CBs (150-snap min.), per PFF. Darby and slot corner Avonte Maddox have been the weak links of an otherwise-impressive defense, while Jalen Mills has been the steady presence of the group over at left cornerback. Metcalf mostly figures to avoid Mills, as the rookie has lined up wide right on just 20 percent of his snaps, per PFF.

• James Washington, PIT at CIN

Coming off three straight games with at least three catches and 49 yards, Washington should be locked in for a hefty snap share for as long as JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee, concussion) is out of the lineup. Sure, Mason Rudolph is bad enough to ruin this optimal setup for his college teammate, but the Steelers quarterback is probably no worse than the Bengals defense. Don't be fooled by the Bengals ranking t-11th in fantasy points allowed to WRs (26.5); that's merely due to a lack of volume because they've faced the second-fewest pass attempts (29.2). No team has yielded more yards per target (10.4) to the position, and only the Dolphins have been worse in pass defense DVOA. 

• Honorable Mentions: Jarvis Landry, CLE vs. MIA; Tyrell Williams, OAK at NYJ; Jamison Crowder, NYJ vs. OAK; Zach Pascal, IND at HOU; Danny Amendola, DET at WAS; Allen Hurns, MIA at CLE; Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller and Taylor Gabriel, CHI vs. NYG; Kelvin Harmon, WAS vs. DET

Friday Update: Paul Richardson's return from a hamstring injury puts a damper on any Harmon-related enthusiasm...at least for this week.

TIGHT END

• Dallas Goedert, PHI vs. SEA

Working on five straight games with at least four targets, three catches and 7.9 PPR points, Goedert is locked in as the second or third pass-catching option in Philadelphia until Alshon Jeffery (ankle) is ready to return. Even if that happens this week, the Eagles appear committed to two-TE formations as the foundation of their offense, wisely preferring Goedert over the likes of Jordan Matthews, Mack Hollins and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside. The second-year pro took advantage of steady playing time to put up decent numbers in tough matchups with the Bills, Bears and Patriots the past three weeks, and he'll now be rewarded with an easier draw this coming Sunday. The Seahawks are 18th in pass defense DVOA, 20th in NY/A (6.6) and 26th in fantasy points allowed to TEs (11.1). Starting safeties Bradley McDougald and Quandre Diggs place 43rd and 69th, respectively, in PFF's coverage grades among 86 safeties (200-snap min.).

• Honorable Mentions: Ryan Griffin, NYJ vs. OAK; Vance McDonald, PIT at CIN; Mike Gesicki, MIA at CLE; Ben Watson, NE vs. DAL; T.J. Hockenson, DET at WAS

KICKER 

• Younghoe Koo, ATL vs. TB

Koo will be kicking in a dome for a team with the second-largest implied total (27.75) of Week 12. There's probably a reason he's bounced around the league so much, but he's at least been good enough for the Falcons that they won't shy away from using him. Atlanta is tied for 10th with 22 field-goal attempts, and Tampa Bay has surrendered a league-high 27 FGAs.

• Honorable mentions: Austin Seibert, CLE vs. MIA

Downgrades

QUARTERBACK

• Jared Goff, LAR vs. BAL

Goff's past seven games have produced four performances of 20-plus fantasy points and three others in single digits, with blowups occurring against the Bucs, Seahawks, Falcons and Bengals, while duds came in matchups versus the 49ers, Steelers and Bears. His Week 12 opponent falls much closer to the second category, ranking No. 3 in pass defense DVOA (-10.7%) and No. 7 in fantasy points allowed to QBs (14.5). The Baltimore defense has transitioned from decent to dominant since it added cornerback Marcus Peters, limiting Russell Wilson to 15.3 FP, Tom Brady to 14.4 and Deshaun Watson to 5.0. The Ravens go four-deep at cornerback, while the Rams aren't sure where things stand with Brandin Cooks (concussion), Robert Woods (personal) and Gerald Everett (wrist). The latter was able to play through his injury last week, but he drew just one target while handling a season-low 25 percent snap share.

Friday Update: Cooks, Woods and Everett all are expected to play.

• Not-so-Honorable Mentions: Josh Allen, BUF vs. DEN; Aaron Rodgers, GB at SF; Daniel Jones, NYG at CHI

RUNNING BACK

• Joe Mixon, CIN vs. PIT

It's tempting to think of Mixon's second-half revival as his new reality, but he still faces most of the same issues that conspired to limit him to an average of 50.4 scrimmage yards in his first seven games. Expectations moving forward should fall somewhere between the prolonged slump and the three-game hot streak, as Mixon's talent partially gets cancelled out by the putrid team context as well as Giovani Bernard's poaching of passing-down snaps. Mixon went up to 75 percent snap share when Gio suffered a minor knee injury a couple weeks ago against Baltimore, but the 23-year-old otherwise played 52 and 59 percent of snaps during the ongoing hot streak. A tricky Week 12 matchup could lead to disappointment, with Pittsburgh ranked No. 8 in DVOA against the run (-16.6%), No. 6 in fantasy points allowed to RBs (16.4) and No. 8 in YPC allowed to RBs (3.8). Nick Chubb's 92 scrimmage yards last week were the most by any running back against the Steelers this season, and Mark Ingram in Week 5 was the last to score a touchdown.

• Mark Ingram, BAL at LAR

There aren't many fantasy managers who have the luxury of benching a running back with Ingram's impressive game log, but those with the option should at least give it some thought. The Rams have held their opponents to 10, 10, 17 and 7 points in four games since the Jalen Ramsey trade, and they haven't allowed a 70-yard rusher since Chris Carson went for 118 in Week 5, moving up to No. 3 in DVOA against the run (-22.9%), No. 11 in fantasy points allowed to RBs (19.5) and No. 4 in YPC allowed to running backs (3.5). Ingram averages 13.6 carries, 1.9 targets and 49.4 percent snap share, so it's mostly the touchdowns (10) that have pushed him into low-end RB1 range. That's not to discount the impact of playing in an elite offense, but the RB2-caliber volume still can lead to issues in difficult matchups.

• Not-so-Honorable Mentions: Ronald Jones, TB at ATL; Brian Hill, ATL vs. TB

WIDE RECEIVER

• Golden Tate, NYG at CHI

Tate's numbers through six appearances prorate to 88-1,112-8 on 133 targets over 16 games, so it's perfectly understandable that fantasy managers wouldn't want to bench him. Just know that he runs into a few different problems this week, starting with Sterling Shepard's potential return from the concussion protocol. The added competition for targets isn't necessarily a death sentence, but it does create a degree of concern when the Giants have a lowly implied total of 17 points, facing a Bears defense ranked No. 6 in DVOA against the pass (-7.0%), No. 2 in fantasy points allowed to WRs (21.0) and No. 4 in YPT allowed to WRs (7.4). Slot corner Buster Skrine was viewed as a weak link heading into the season, but he's more than held his own in giving up just 6.1 YPT, with a 66.7 coverage grade from PFF easily the best of his mediocre career. The Bears' recent work against slot receivers includes duds for Cooper Kupp (53 yards), Danny Amendola (29), Nelson Agholor (21) and Keenan Allen (53).

Friday Update: Shepard cleared concussion protocol and will play.

• Curtis Samuel, CAR at NO

I don't doubt Samuel will be able to get open against the Saints' cornerbacks, but the part of the equation that's out of his control looks far from promising. Kyle Allen is now throwing interceptions in addition to the sacks and fumbles, and the Panthers' team pass-blocking grades from PFF the past two weeks (42.6, 65.4) were the worst they've had since their season opener. That's especially problematic for Samuel, who has seen just four catchable passes on 19 targets (t-4th) 20 or more yards downfield, per PFF. His 1,110 air yards (6th) hint at upside beyond the production we've seen, but it isn't likely to happen this week against a team ranked No. 8 in pass defense DVOA (-4.3%) and No. 5 in QB pressure rate (27.7%). Allen likely will be forced to get rid of the ball quickly, which should work more in favor of D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey.

• Not-so-Honorable Mentions: Michael Gallup, DET at NE; Marquise Brown, BAL at LAR; Hunter Renfrow, OAK at NYJ; Tyler Boyd, CIN vs. PIT

TIGHT END

• Noah Fant, DEN at BUF

Fant leads the Broncos with 25 percent target share in three games since the Emmanuel Sanders trade, averaging 67 yards per week with the help of a 75-yard, catch-and-run touchdown. The rookie figures to stay busy down the stretch run of the season, but efficiency still looks like a major problem, considering he's caught 57.4 percent of his targets and now has Brandon Allen playing quarterback. It doesn't help that Fant has dropped five passes, tied for second-most in the league among tight ends. The volume makes him start-worthy in favorable matchups, while the efficiency concerns leave him as more of a high-end TE2 for tougher draws. Week 12 undoubtedly qualifies as the latter, with Buffalo ranked No. 9 in pass defense DVOA (-2.6%), t-1st in fantasy points allowed to TEs (5.0) and No. 8 in YPT allowed to TEs (7.1). Buffalo also allowed the fewest fantasy points to the position last season (6.2), thanks to consistently strong coverage work from starting safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. Both players have top-15 PFF grades among safeties this year.

• Not-so-Honorable Mention: Jimmy Graham, GB at SF; Gerald Everett, LAR vs. BAL