Exploiting the Matchups: Top Fantasy Plays for the Wild-Card Round

We'll scrap the format from the regular season, instead taking a game-by-game look at matchups to exploit in fantasy contests — be it DFS or the best-ball-type stuff currently running on Underdog, Drafters and a few other sites. 

Seahawks at 49ers — 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday

SEA IT: 16.25 (10th)

SF IT: 25.75 (2nd)

Key Injuries: None

Biggest Mismatch - 49ers' O-line > Seahawks' front seven

Trent Williams is still the best left tackle around, and Mike McGlinchey is one of the better right tackles. Even with a mediocre interior line and mostly immobile quarterbacks, the 49ers finished seventh in rushing yards and 10th in YPC (4.7). Seattle, meanwhile, gave up the third most rushing yards and seventh most per carry (4.9), ranking 25th in run-defense DVOA (compared to 17th against the pass). The Seahawks also lost leading tackler Jordyn Brooks to an ACL tear Week 17, and their only standout run defender is DT Shelby Harris (who is playing through a knee injury and perhaps stretches the definition of 'standout' in this case).

Best Fantasy Play - RB Christian McCaffrey

A boring pick, but just look at what McCaffrey did in the regular season while taking 68 percent of available snaps after his trade to the 49ers. He scored at least one TD every time he reached 70 percent share, also topping 135 total yards in five out of six instances (including 26-108-1 and 6-30-0 Week 15 at Seattle). That was actually one of the 'Hawks' better run-defense efforts until Jordan Mason sealed it with a 55-yard run, but McCaffrey still had a huge fantasy day and now gets to face a version of the Seattle defense without Brooks. 

Look for C-Mac to get 20-plus touches and well over two-thirds of the snaps this Saturday, even if Elijah Mitchell is also involved after scoring twice in his return from a knee injury last week. Mitchell also has some fantasy appeal, at least in DFS contests, though there's always risk the Niners run McCaffrey out there for 90+ percent of snaps now that we're in the playoffs.

Chargers at Jaguars — 8:15 p.m. ET on Saturday

LAC IT: 25 (t-4th)

JAX IT: 22.5 (t-7th)

LAC Key Injuries: WR Mike Williams (O - back)

JAX Key Injuries: Jamal Agnew (Q - shoulder)

Biggest Mismatch - Chargers OLBs Joey Bosa & Khalil Mack > Jaguars OTs Jawaan Taylor & Walker Little

These teams are quite similar, featuring standout skill-position talent mixed with unreliable blocking and unreliable defense. Los Angeles has the better quarterback and a slightly better roster otherwise, while Jacksonville has a better head coach by virtue of Doug Pederson not being Brandon Staley.

My first thought was that this game should be a pick 'em given that Jacksonville has homefield advantage and a better coach, but after further examination I agree with the Chargers being a slight favorite. That's largely because they have Bosa and Mack going up against Little — who has played 460 offensive snaps in the NFL — and Taylor, who just completed his third straight year graded outside PFF's top 65 at tackles among approximately 80 qualifiers each season. 

In other words, Trevor Lawrence will need to get the ball out quickly or else be in danger of fumbling for a fifth straight game. Don't expect a repeat of his three-TD, zero-turnover performance from the 38-10 blowout win of Los Angeles in Week 3; the Jags still had LT Cam Robinson (knee) at that point, and Bosa left after 13 snaps with a groin injury that kept him out for more than two months. He's back now, and even had a sack in the season finale, while Robinson has been replaced by a struggling second-year pro on Lawrence's blind side.

Best Fantasy Play - WR Keenan Allen

There's plenty of fantasy potential in this game, with both teams favoring the pass and ranking top 12 for both overall pace and neutral-situation pace. Jags RB Travis Etienne was another option here, facing the Chargers' bottom five run defense, but it's rather concerning that he took only 55 percent of snaps in the must-win game last weekend. He'll get more than that this Sunday, but it is possible the Jags trust JaMycal Hasty more for clear passing situations, which could cost Etienne a couple targets and a couple carries.

Combining that possibility with the reality of Jacksonville's offensive line, Etienne doesn't quite get the nod as our top fantasy play. The honor instead goes to Keenan Allen, who missed the first matchup between these teams and will be a fantastic bet for double-digit targets in the rematch if Mike Williams (back) is absent or limited... a strong possibility (UPDATE: Williams was ruled out Friday). 

Joshua Palmer could see see a lot of Jacksonville's top corner, Tyson Campbell, while Allen figures to run most of his routes from the slot (where the Jags mostly have been using Tre Herndon, an annual liability who PFF grades at 101st out of 122 qualified CBs). The Jags have improved on defense thanks in large part to impressive pass-rushing from Josh Allen and Arden Key, but they're still mediocre-to-subpar behind the front line.

Dolphins at Bills — 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday

MIA IT: 15 (12th)

BUF IT: 28.5 (1st)

MIA Key Injuries: QB Tua Tagovailoa (O - head) + RB Raheem Mostert (O - thumb) + G Liam Eichenberg (D - hand) + OT Terron Armstead (Q - toe) 

BUF Key Injuries: WR Isaiah McKenzie (Q - hamstring) + DT Jordan Phillips (Q - shoulder)

Biggest Mismatch - Bills Defense > QB Skylar Thompson

It was less than a month ago that the Dolphins nearly upset the Bills in Buffalo, losing on a last-second field goal after holding an eight-point lead early in the fourth quarter. Tagovailoa threw for 234 yards and two TDs without turning the ball over, with Mostert putting up 156 yards and both Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill scoring TDs from outside the red zone.

The Dolphins still have Waddle and Hill, but Tagovailoa won't play this week, and with Teddy Bridgewater still bothered by his finger the Dolphins are starting Thompson again. Even worse, Mostert is likely to be absent or limited after breaking his thumb Week 18, and LT Terron Armstead (toe) is no sure thing given that he also missed the must-win contest. The Dolphins are asking an awful lot of Thompson, who completed 57.1 percent of his passes for 5.1 YPA in the regular season and now faces a top-10 defense on the road to start his playoff career. It'll likely be an unexciting one-and-done.

Best Fantasy Play - TE Dawson Knox

The Dolphins held Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis in check in the previous two matchups, instead giving up season-best receiving lines to the likes of McKenzie, TE Dawson Knox and RB Devin Singletary. Josh Allen threw for 704 yards and six TDs, all the same, adding another 124 yards on the ground.

Allen is the safe fantasy play here, especially with Diggs likely seeing a lot of Dolphins CB Xavien Howard, but you probably don't need me to tell you that Allen is QB1 for fantasy this weekend. Instead, let's take a shot at guessing which secondary/tertiary pass catcher will have a big game... and the dial lands on Knox given the playing-time uncertainty at behind Diggs/Davis at WR (where Khalil Shakir and Cole Beasley may share the No. 3 role) and the near-50/50 timeshare between Devin Singletary and James Cook in the backfield. Knox is locked in for a large snap count and plenty of routes against a defense he beat for 6-98-1 less than a month ago.

Giants at Vikings — 4:30 p.m. ET on Sunday

NYG IT: 22.5 (t-7th)

MIN IT: 25.5 (3rd)

NYG Key Injuries: None

MIN Key Injuries: CB Cameron Dantzler (Q - ankle/personal) + S Harrison Smith (Q - knee) + RB/KR Kene Nwangwu (Q - illness)

Biggest Mismatch - Vikings WRs > Giants CBs

The true mismatch will be between the winner of this game and their opponent in the next round. If not for the QB injuries in Miami and Baltimore, these would be the two worst teams in the playoff field, challenged perhaps by Seattle. 

In any case, the Vikings are at least playoff-worthy at one position, wide receiver, where they have all-world Justin Jefferson, veteran accomplice Adam Thielen and a strong No. 3 in K.J. Osborn. The Giants, meanwhile, are counting on Jackson to come back from an MCL sprain and suit up as their No. 1 corner for the first time since Week 11. 

Jackson's running mates, Fabian Moreau and Darnay Holmes, both rank outside PFF's top 100 at cornerback, with Moreau in particular getting picked on while shadowing top receivers with Jackson out the past couple months. Jefferson put up 12-133-1 during a Week 16 win over the Giants in which Moreau shadowed him for most  of the game, while Thielen and Osborn combined for only 23 yards and TE T.J. Hockenson erupted for 13-109-2. The production should be much more balanced this time around, at least between Hock/Thielen/Osborn, though Jefferson remains miles ahead of all three.

Best Fantasy Play - WR K.J. Osborn

Osborn took 60.4 percent of his regular-season snaps from the slot, where the Giants continue to use Holmes even as he struggles for a third straight year. That's partially because they have nobody else and partially because his coverage stats aren't as bad as the bottom-barrel PFF grade might seem to suggest, though Holmes did give up well over one yard per snap for a third time in as many years — he's nobody's idea of an impressive slot corner. Jefferson is the safe bet to do damage, but look for Osborn to pick up the slack if the Giants make more of an effort to force Kirk Cousins away from his top weapons.

Ravens at Bengals — 8:15 p.m. ET on Sunday

BAL IT: 15.5 (11th)

CIN IT: 25 (t-4th)

BAL Key Injuries: QBs Lamar Jackson (O - knee) & Tyler Huntley (Q - shoulder)

CIN Key Injuries: G Alex Cappa (O - ankle)

Biggest Mismatch - Bengals defense > Ravens passing game

This game rightfully has the lowest over/under of the wild-card round, despite featuring a pass-happy offense with a top QB and top wide receivers. The problem is on the other side, where Baltimore features a talent-rich defense and a hopeless passing game. The former was already a problem with Jackson under center, and we've seen just how much he means with the Ravens now scoring 17 or fewer points in six straight games to close out the season. They also allowed two or fewer offensive TDs in each of those six games, winning three, and their defense is quite healthy heading into the playoffs.

We can expect the Bengals to throw a lot and the Ravens to run a lot in the early portion of this game. Maybe that keeps Baltimore in it, for a time, but they'll eventually need to throw and when that happens will either have a weak-armed QB with a bad shoulder (Huntley) or an undrafted rookie who just got whupped by this same Bengals defense last week (Anthony Brown). And regardless of which QB starts, he'll be throwing to the worst group of WRs in the league (not just among playoff teams).

Best Fantasy Play - WR Tyler Boyd

The individual WR/CB matchups don't mean as much as they used to in these games now that the Ravens play a lot more zone and zero-blitz much less often than they did under current Giants DC Wink Martindale. Still, Boyd should get some chances one-on-one against rookie safety Kyle Hamilton, who has dominated Baltimore's slot snaps on defense in the second half of the season. Hamilton has played well overall, showing a nose for the ball and knack for blitzing, but he's not a natural cornerback and will be up against one of the craftiest receivers in the game. Just last week Boyd put up 5-51-0 on seven targets against Baltimore... his first game with more than five looks since Week 11. Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins obviously offer much higher ceilings, but for DFS I'd rather spend up on WRs in games with more shootout potential.

Cowboys at Buccaneers — 8:15 p.m. ET on Monday

DAL IT: 24 (6th)

TB IT: 21.5 (9th)

DAL Key Injuries: None

TB Key Injuries: S Logan Ryan (Q - knee) + G Nick Leverett (Q - knee/shoulder)

Biggest Mismatch - None

Lame answer, I know, but this game really does look even on paper, except that one of the teams has played well below its talent level this year. If we're talking relative strengths/weaknesses... the Bucs have been merely solid against the run this season after years of domination, and the Cowboys are weak at left cornerback where 2021 third-round pick Nahson Wright has been getting most of the snaps recently. 

Wright has given up more than two yards per cover snaps, and he'll likely see plenty of both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin given the way Tampa has moved its receivers around. Evans has almost exactly the same number of snaps lined up wide left and wide right, which means he'll probably see a mix of Wright and Trevon Diggs unless the Cowboys shadow with Diggs.

What's interesting, to me, isn't any one specific matchup but the general possibility of a shootout. The over/under (45.5) is nothing wild, as both teams are strong on defense, but both are top six in both overall pace and neutral-situation pace. The Cowboys love to play fast and snap the ball with plenty of play clock remaining, while the Bucs don't move quite as fast but also don't run much. This could be a game with 40-plus pass attempts on each side without either team reaching 30 points.

Best Fantasy Play - WR CeeDee Lamb

The Bucs have a bunch of solid players in their secondary but not a dominant, No. 1 cornerback. Given Lamb's 28.6 percent target share this season and the lofty overall play-volume projection for this game, anything less than a handful of catches would be shocking. In general, I'd favor passing-game players over RBs in this matchup, also taking a long look at Evans, Godwin, Dalton Schultz and even Michael Gallup and Cade Otton. For single-game DFS contests, there's also an argument for T.Y. Hilton / Noah Brown and Russell Gage / Julio Jones (TBD how snaps and routes play out between those pairs).