DFS Tournament Guide: Week 9 NFL Strategy

You know it's the middle of the season when 'injury situations' is the most important part of the DFS tourney guide. There's still some non-injury-dependent value to be had, but it pales in comparison to what we'll get from Jaylen Samuels if the Steelers don't have James Conner (shoulder) this week.

The main slate already appears a bit thin, with an early London game removing Leonard Fournette, Deshaun Watson, D.J. Chark and DeAndre Hopkins (plus Darren Fells!), while bye weeks deprive us of the Saints, Falcons and Rams (also, the Bengals). We're left with a 10-game slate, including six matchups that have over/unders of 42.5 points or less. 

It kind of reminds me of one of those stupid TV scenes where the family dog eats a valuable piece of jewelry and everyone stands around waiting to dig through the poop. I guess that makes me the guy who's just a little bit too excited about the whole situation, rather than being appropriately disgusted.

As always, I'm happy to discuss strategy in the comments section below, or on twitter (@RotowireNFL_JD).

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1:00, 4:05 and 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the vast majority concentrated at the very top.

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to price — the guys that are good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our tourney lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few "chalk" picks that have strong odds to outperform their salaries. These players, along with a couple passing-game stacks, tend to form the core that remains fairly consistent throughout my lineups.

• QB Philip Rivers, LAC vs. GB ($5,100)

While he doesn't offer the same ceiling as a high-priced quarterback, Rivers is the best bet to outperform his price tag, which sits at a low-water mark after last week's rocky outing in Chicago. The Chargers presumably hope to run the ball more often under new offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, but the plan requires an improvement in rushing efficiency, not to mention some ability to slow down Aaron Rodgers. Whatever we might think of Ken Whisenhunt and his various shortcomings, firing him won't fix personnel deficiencies on the offensive line or the defensive side of the ball. Barring an overnight, miracle fix for those problems, Rivers should land near his 2019 average of 38.1 pass attempts per game, giving him a decent shot to reach 300 yards for the sixth time this season. Mike Williams ($4,600) is my preferred stacking partner, with numerous indicators for positive regression.

• WR DeVante Parker, MIA vs. NYJ ($4,400)

Working on four straight games with 11.9 or more PPR points, Parker now gets his best matchup of the first half of the season, facing a Jets defense that may be losing Trumaine Johnson (ankle) from an already-vulnerable secondary. Slot corner Brian Poole has been the one bright spot, but Parker should mostly face Darryl Roberts and Nate Hairston, considering the 26-year-old receiver has run just 82 of his 266 routes (31 percent) from the slot, per PFF. Narrowing it down to three games with Ryan Fitzpatrick playing two-thirds or more of the snaps, Parker has enjoyed 25 percent target share, averaging 4.7 catches for 63 yards and 0.3 TDs on 8.3 targets. He's the piece of jewelry, and this Jets-Dolphins game is the dog poop.

Honorable Mentions: WR Alshon Jeffery, PHI vs. CHI ($5,000); WR Mike Williams, LAC vs. GB ($4,600); Panthers D/ST vs. TEN ($2,800)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of any tournament lineup, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the contest, hoping to take advantage of a tight game where both teams are still chucking the ball around late in the fourth quarter. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Jets (22.75) at Dolphins (19.75)

It's gross, I know. But it's also cheap, and I'm not sure these offenses are any worse than the defenses. The Dolphins are similarly talent-deficient on both sides of the ball, while the Jets defense has been thinned out by a combination of injuries and trades. What's left is a game with only one player priced at $6,000 or higher, an honor that goes to the slumping Le'Veon Bell ($7,700).

The other backfield gives us Mark Walton, who scored 7.4 DK points on 87 percent snap share in Miami's first game without Kenyan Drake. Of course, a home matchup with the Jets is much different from a road game in Pittsburgh, so Walton would be a strong play at $4,500 if we knew his snap count would stay in that 80-plus-percent range. Of course, we don't have any such guarantee, so it's a strategy I'll be hesitant to use unless I'm already stacking this game.

Preston Williams ($4,200) and the aforementioned Parker both make for solid choices alongside Ryan Fitzpatrick ($4,800), with Mike Gesicki ($2,800) also in play for anyone who is feeling a little crazy. I favor Bell or Robby Anderson ($5,500) on the other side, though it's easy enough to craft arguments for Sam Darnold ($5,900), Jamison Crowder ($5,300), Demaryius Thomas ($4,000) or Ryan Griffin ($3,400). All besides Thomas are overpriced relative to their production this season, but that's generally the case for any opponent of the Dolphins.

• Best Stack: QB Fitzpatrick + RB Bell + RB Walton + WR Parker

Buccaneers (23.75) at Seahawks(28.75)

This game has the highest over/under (52.5) on the slate, and while the individual players are priced accordingly, there's nonetheless ample potential for a game stack to pay off big. We know the Seahawks love to run the ball, but they'll probably tilt a bit more toward the pass against a Tampa defense that's given up 3.0 yards per carry (1st) and 7.5 per pass attempt (18th). The split looks even more extreme if opponent/schedule adjustments are included, with the Bucs ranking 25th in pass defense DVOA and first in run defense DVOA.

The Seattle defense doesn't show a strong funnel effect one way or the other, but it has been subpar in general, allowing 4.9 YPC (29th) and 7.5 YPA (16th) while ranking 19th in DVOA against the pass and 23rd against the run. Expect more of the same from Jameis Winston ($6,100) — a steady mix of yards, touchdowns, turnovers and sacks. 

Both of these passing attacks have become narrowly focused on the top two wide receivers, so I probably won't go beyond Tyler Lockett ($7,500), Chris Godwin ($7,300), Mike Evans ($7,200) and DK Metcalf ($5,700). One might throw in Cameron Brate ($3,100) or David Moore ($3,100) as a cost saver, especially if the lineup starts with Lockett, Godwin and Russell Wilson ($7,100). I do think the price bump for Metcalf is rather steep, and he still hasn't caught more than four passes in any one game.

• Best Stack: QB Winston + WR Lockett + WR Godwin

RB-Defense Pairing

We can pair a running back with his team's defense to double our bet on favorable game script in certain matchups. Just keep in mind that the scoring correlations aren't nearly as strong as those between quarterbacks and pass catchers, so it isn't worth forcing into a lineup unless the prices for each individual commodity make sense. We also need to account for specialized backfield roles, i.e., using Marlon Mack rather than Nyheim Hines in conjunction with the Indianapolis defense.   

• RB Nick Chubb ($7,300) + Browns D/ST ($3,100) at DEN

The brilliance of Chubb's season has been overshadowed by the struggles of Baker Mayfield, with the former surviving a brutal first-half schedule while the latter has succumbed. Averaging 5.5 YPC with at least 98 scrimmage yards in every game, Chubb has yet to face a defense in the bottom 10 for fantasy points allowed to running backs. His Week 9 opponent lands right on the fringe, with Denver's solid work on defense partially mitigated by ineptitude on the other side of the ball. New starting quarterback Brandon Allen is unlikely to reverse that trend, likely setting Chubb up for another high-volume game. Dontrell Hilliard's on-again, off-again role on passing downs shouldn't be much of a problem if Chubb and the Cleveland defense jump out to a fast start.

Honorable Mention: RB Christian McCaffrey ($10,000) + Panthers D/ST ($2,800) vs. TEN; RB Jordan Howard ($5,100) + Eagles D/ST ($3,000) vs. CHI

High-Priced Hero

• RB  Christian McCaffrey, CAR vs. TEN ($10,000)

McCaffrey is still underpriced at $10,000, averaging 20.1 carries, 7.0 targets, 154 scrimmage yards and 1.4 TDs per game, with more than 30 DK points five of seven weeks (only Tampa Bay has kept him under that mark). His Week 9 opponent has limited running backs to 3.9 YPC, but only Houston has allowed more catches to the position than Tennessee's 51. Be it by ground or by air, McCaffrey will do his usual thing, playing as a 3.5-point favorite at home after he survived a brutal matchup in San Francisco last week. 

Honorable Mention: RB Nick Chubb, CLE at DEN ($7,300); WR Chris Godwin, TB at SEA ($7,200)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players carrying high ownership without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. Recency bias is often to blame, but in some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• WR Kenny Golladay, DET at OAK ($7,700)

The combination of talent and matchup is tempting, until we consider a top-of-the-slate price for a guy averaging 7.9 targets per game. I don't doubt Matthew Stafford ($6,800) will get his; I'm just not sure which of Golladay, Marvin Jones ($6,000) or Danny Amendola ($4,700) will see the most passes. Amendola, in particular, has been a nuisance, drawing 33 targets (to Golladay's 29) in his four fully healthy games with more than half the snaps on offense. Borrowing from my Hidden State Line column earlier this week:

Pass distribution Weeks 1, 2, 7 and 8

Amendola: 33 targets (22%), 299 air yards (19%), 9.1 aDOT

Golladay: 29 targets (19%), 539 air yards (34%), 18.6 aDOT

Jones: 28 targets (18%), 316 air yards (20%), 11.3 aDOT

Hockenson: 18 targets (12%), 211 air yards (13%), 11.7 aDOT

Other Fades: WR Mike Evans, TB at SEA ($7,200); TE Travis Kelce, KC vs. MIN ($6,900)

The SMASH Spot

Volume is king, no doubt. But we still need to account for efficiency, pinpointing situations that give players good odds to outperform their typical marks for YPA, YPC or YPT.

• WR Chris Godwin, TB at SEA ($7,300)

Averaging 23.9 DK points even after a bust game, Godwin should rebound strong against a Seattle defense that allowed Julio Jones, Russell Gage and Justin Hardy to combine for an 11-116-0 receiving line on 13 slot targets last week, per PFF. Seahawks cornerback Jamar Taylor has surrendered 1.81 yards per cover snap in the slot, worst in the league among CBs with 50 or more snaps in that capacity. Godwin has lined up wide right on 18 percent of snaps this season — compared to 56 percent in the slot — so he should mostly avoid top cornerback Shaquill Griffin, who stays on the left side of the defense. Seattle's zone-heavy scheme is another factor working in Godwin's favor, with a recent article from PFF highlighting how the Bucs have leaned on Mike Evans to beat man coverage, while Godwin has been the primary threat against zone.

Honorable Mention: RB Aaron Jones, GB at LAC ($7,000)

The Bargain Bin

QB Philip Rivers, LAC vs. GB ($5,100)

QB Matt Moore, KC vs. MIN ($4,800)

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA vs. NYJ ($4,800)

RB Mark Walton, MIA vs. NYJ ($4,500)

WR DeVante Parker, MIA vs. NYJ ($4,400)

WR Preston Williams, MIA vs. NYJ ($4,200)

WR Cole Beasley, BUF vs. WAS ($4,100)

TE Dallas Goedert, PHI vs. CHI ($3,100)

TE Noah Fant, DEN vs. CLE ($3,000)

TE Mike Gesicki, MIA vs. NYJ ($2,800)

D/ST Pittsburgh Steelers vs. IND ($2,400)

D/ST Kansas City Chiefs vs. MIN ($2,200)

Injury Situations

The "Sunday Scramble" doesn't need to be stressful. We can formulate plans ahead of time for the best way to respond once inactive lists are released.

• RB James Conner (shoulder), PIT vs. IND

With Benny Snell (knee) requiring minor surgery and Conner absent from practice to start the week, Jaylen Samuels ($4,000) may return from his own surgery-related absence with the burden of a full workload. The Steelers also have Trey Edmunds on hand, but I'm guessing they won't be too cautious with Samuels given that they've repeatedly signaled intention to go all-out for a playoff berth, apparently captivated by the sweet, sweet allure of a blowout loss in the wild-card round. The Steelers have become the Bengals. The Bengals have become the Browns. And the Browns are just a more interesting version of the Browns. It's a great time to be a Ravens fan!

• WR Adam Thielen (hamstring), MIN at KC

Stefon Diggs ($7,600) is worth the price, but only if Thielen misses another week. Messing around with any of the other Minnesota pass catchers sounds like something I'd talk myself into on Thursday and talk myself out of by Sunday morning...so I guess that means it's actually a good idea?

• WR T.Y. Hilton (calf), IND at PIT

Zach Pascal ($4,100) had a big stat line Week 7 and a big snap share Week 8, but we're probably looking at a run-first offense that spreads out the targets if Hilton can't play in Sunday's game. The Steelers defense ($2,400) already looks like a good play and should be a great one if Hilton is absent or limited.

• WR Curtis Samuel (shoulder), CAR vs. TEN

The lord of empty air yards, Samuel is awfully tempting at $4,300, while an injury-related absence could send a few more targets to D.J. Moore ($4,800). Both scenarios involve excellent volume expectation relative to price, but they also require Kyle Allen to be slightly less of a turd. 

Update: Samuel returned to full practice Thursday.

• TEs O.J. Howard (hamstring) and Cameron Brate (ribs), TB at SEA

Despite the disappointment last week, Brate will make for a reasonable discount TE if he ends up playing and Howard doesn't. Personally, I'd rather just stick to Godwin unless it's a Jameis lineup.

• TE Delanie Walker (ankle), TEN at CAR

Jonnu Smith ($3,800) won't be my cup of tea against Carolina's stingy pass defense, considering last week's breakout game included just 18 routes on 36 QB dropbacks. You could argue he's earned more work, but the Titans seem to like Anthony Firkser as a replacement for Walker on some of those passing downs. I mention this situation not because I care, but because I know other people are interested. I'm a true man of the people.

• WR Davante Adams (toe), GB at LAC

This is another one that probably won't impact my lineup decisions but feels like something I should be mentioning. I guess I'll just use Aaron Jones ($7,000) as the stacking partner if I decide to do a lineup with Aaron Rodgers ($6,900) at QB?

• QB Case Keenum (concussion), WAS at BUF

Anyone who has watched Dwayne Haskins play quarterback in the NFL can tell you that the Bills D/ST ($3,800) will be a worthwhile investment if the rookie makes his first start.

• RB Adrian Peterson (ankle), WAS at BUF

I think Peterson is fine to play on his injured ankle again, but it's at least worth mentioning the remote possibility of Wendell Smallwood ($3,500) and Craig Reynolds ($3,100) being the only active running backs for Washington. I probably won't do anything with that information, though it at least allows for some interesting lineup constructions if Smallwood is in a RB spot at that price.

Weather Watch

Apart from some wind in Buffalo and maybe Kansas City, this looks like a much cleaner slate than last week when there were two or three games impacted by precipitation. Of course, two of those games looked fine a few days ahead of time, so it's still wise to keep an eye on weather throughout the weekend.

Adjusting for FanDuel Prices

The prices listed in this article are from DraftKings, and while most of the logic applies to any DFS site, there are a few specific changes I'll need to apply for FanDuel:

• I'd be more likely to use Russell Wilson ($8,600) instead of Jameis Winston ($7,500) for a Tampa-Seattle stack. FanDuel's looser pricing makes it easier to figure out a good lineup with a high-priced QB, and the absence of yardage bonuses favors efficiency (see: Wilson) over sheer volume (see: Winston). We also get Tyler Lockett ($7,500) priced at WR7, compared to WR4 on DK.
• The DK value with Philip Rivers ($7,200) doesn't really translate to FanDuel.
• Matthew Stafford ($7,900) is priced as QB4 on both sites, but he's further from the top on FD.
• Le'Veon Bell ($7,000) is priced as RB8 instead of RB3, arguably making him the largest pricing discrepancy between the two major sites.
• D.J. Moore ($5,400) is actually cheaper than Curtis Samuel ($5,600), though it kind of makes sense given that Moore is relatively more valuable under full-PPR scoring.
• Marvin Jones ($5,700) over Kenny Golladay ($7,600) feels like an easy choice at these prices, though Golladay does look better on FD than DK. Stafford-Golladay-Jones is in play as a stack, though the two wide receivers never have big games in the same week (there's a first time for everything...or at least for some things).
• The FD pricing scale really favors paying up at tight end, per usual. Noah Fant ($4,600) and Mike Gesicki ($4,800) feel like the only viable plays below $5,000...and that might be a stretch of the word 'viable'.

Good Luck!