Beating the Book: Bengals Extend Win Streak, Chiefs Stomp Seahawks + Full NFL Week 16 ATS Picks and Predictions

Welcome to the NFL Week 16 edition of Beating the Book.

We're coming off of a Week 15 that began with a promising 49ers' cover on Thursday night but quickly went sideways after a rough showing on Saturday's three-game slate. Virtually every game in Week 15 was a close result, as only three teams won more by more than a score. The Packers' 12-point win over the Rams on Monday Night Football was the biggest differential of the week. 

Considering we were on the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles – the latter of which was our Best Bet – to cover big numbers, suffice it to say we got burned in a few spots. Believe me, for much of the season this hasn't been the case, but looking back I actually feel like we made the right pick with the Eagles, specifically.

Jalen Hurts threw two first-half picks, Jake Elliott missed a 38-yard field goal to cap off a 19-play drive, Miles Sanders coughed up an ultra-costly fumble to set up an easy Bears touchdown, and the Eagles still led by 10 with under three minutes remaining. Had it not been for multiple miscommunications on Chicago's final, garbage-time-adjacent drive, the Eagles would've pulled off a hard-fought cover.

Anyway, we're looking forward, not back, as we head into another packed week with all 32 teams in action across four days. We're treated to Jags-Jets to kick off the week on Thursday night before most of the league takes the field on Christmas Eve. As of Wednesday, only one game (Chiefs -10.0 vs. Seattle) features a double-digit spread at BetMGM, though the Bills (-9.0 at Chicago) could get there by the end of the week. 

Looking at the board, one thing that jumps out right away is the onslaught of low totals. Thanks in large part to a winter weather system expected to work its way through much of the country over the weekend, seven games currently feature a total in the 30s. The crown jewel, of course, is Saints-Browns, which sits at 32.0. That's not the lowest total in NFL history, but it's in the neighborhood. Obviously, it's the lowest number of the season and, according to my research, the lowest total since at least 2011.

Before we fully dive in on the Week 16 slate, let's take our customary look back at the best and worst calls from my Week 15 picks.

Last week: 7-9 ATS; 10-6 straight up; best bet lost (Eagles -9.5 at Bears)

On the season: 102-115-7 ATS; 143-79-2 straight up; 5-10 best bets

Best calls of Week 15: 

• I fully expect Green Bay to come out slowly and have its usual array of disjointed possessions, but in the end I can't put my money on Baker Mayfield over Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field in mid-December.
• Even if the Bengals end up being down a couple of their most-talented players, I trust Burrow and the NFL's third-ranked offense to outscore a Bucs team that looks completely broken. Quite simply, the Bucs cannot run the ball, and teams know it. 

Worst calls of Week 15:

• While acknowledging Trevor Lawrence's continued ascent toward borderline-stardom, I simply can't get myself to back the Jags here. I've been hurt too many times.
• These big spreads have been a thorn in our side all season, but I'm not reversing course on the Texans after last week. Give me the Chiefs to win and cover.
• Cautiously – and slightly less cautiously if it's Trubisky under center for Pittsburgh – give me the Panthers to win a close game and keep their dreams of somehow winning the NFC South alive.

NFL Week 16 Picks: Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game

As will be the case every week throughout the regular season, we'll start with Thursday Night Football and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. My best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

All odds this week via BetMGM, as of Wednesday at Noon ET. If you don't have a BetMGM account yet, you can use this BetMGM bonus code for a generous welcome bonus.

Thursday Night Football

Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.0) at New York Jets

One of the low-key unbreakable records in all of sports is the Jaguars' 11-year (and counting) streak of not playing on Sunday or Monday Night Football.

The last time Jacksonville played a true primetime game, Blaine Gabbert was making his fifth career start against Ray Lewis and the Baltimore Ravens. The Jags did not score a touchdown, but Josh Scobee went off for four field goals – three of which came from 50+ yards – to lead Jacksonville to a 12-7 victory. Later that night, the NFL apparently made the decision to banish the Jags from primetime forever, so in the decade-plus since, they've had to settle for their annual Thursday Night appearance.

As recently as a month ago, it looked like this game wouldn't mean anything, but after wins over the Titans and Cowboys in consecutive weeks, suddenly the tables have turned in the AFC South. With a rematch against the Titans – this time at Fred Taylor Field – looming in Week 18, the Jags improbably control their own destiny the rest of the way.

The key, of course, is Jacksonville has to stay within at least a game of the Titans before that Week 18 showdown. With the Texans on the schedule in Week 17 – yes, yes, I know the Jags already lost to Houston –  beating the Jets on Thursday would be a huge step toward keeping pace with Tennessee.

After opening at Jets -1.5 earlier in the week, the number is down to 1.0 given the news that Mike White will be sidelined for the second consecutive week. It goes without saying that facing Zach Wilson is a significant break for the Jags, though the New York defense should be able to slow down Trevor Lawrence and a Jacksonville offense that's climbed up to eighth in DVOA. The Jags losing left tackle Cam Robinson in the midst of last week's thrilling win is a major blow, as is Travon Walker's ankle injury.

For much of the season, we've found success auto-picking against the Jags, but they've shown a shocking amount of resilience to rally back for surprising wins over Baltimore, Tennessee and Dallas. At this point, they've earned back some trust. While I may never fully let my guard down, my distrust of Wilson outweighs two decades of Jaguars-induced trauma.

I feel like I'm digging my own grave, and if I were you I would stay far, far away from this game. With that said: ever so cautiously, give me Jacksonville to keep the momentum rolling in another close victory. If the Jags lose this game, Christmas is canceled.

The pick: Jaguars 24 – Jets 23

Saturday: Christmas Eve Early Games

Atlanta Falcons (+7.5) at Baltimore Ravens

I promise that Jags write-up will be the longest of the week. We'll go more quickly through the rest of the slate.

The Ravens are hoping to get Lamar Jackson back for this game, but that's no guarantee. He did not practice Wednesday, and a final call on his status likely won't come until much later in the week. If Jackson plays, that provides Baltimore with an obvious boost, though the Ravens' offense had already begun to sputter before Jackson sprained his knee against Denver. 

Whether Jackson plays or not, I don't expect the Ravens to pile up points at will. Atlanta's defense is among the worst in the league, but pass coverage has been its primary issue. Still, the Falcons are not a plus team against the run, either, and the Baltimore defense feels like it gets better every week. Desmond Ridder wasn't a total disaster against New Orleans, but it's hard to see him finding much success against the Ravens. Atlanta certainly won't be able to rely on the run to the degree it did a week ago (39 carries, 231 yards).

With Jackson's status up in the air, I'll take the Ravens to win the game but the Falcons pull out a narrow cover in one of many low-scoring games this week.

The pick: Ravens 20 – Falcons 13

Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers

For the second time this season, the Lions will take on a fellow big cat opponent. A few weeks ago, Detroit took care of business against the Jaguars in blowout fashion, and they've since dispatched the Vikings and Jets to crawl back to .500 on the season. Detroit is as hot as any team in the league and has a real chance to make the playoffs after a 1-6 start. 

Predictably, Detroit's high-powered offense cooled off against a tough Jets D last week, and while Carolina has been underrated on that side of the ball all season, this is a much better spot for Detroit. It won't be warm in Charlotte, however, with kickoff temperature likely to sit around 35 degrees. That could be a slight edge for Carolina, but at some point the game will be placed in Sam Darnold's hands, and that typically doesn't end well.

Detroit's defense is exploitable, but it's vastly better than earlier in the season. The Lions have climbed to 19th in rush defense DVOA – two spots ahead of Carolina. While the Panthers should be able to make this a relatively entertaining game at home, it feels like they may be running out of gas at the wrong time. 

I'll take Detroit to win and cover.

The pick: Lions 26 – Panthers 20

Buffalo Bills (-9.0) at Chicago Bears

The Bears moved to 5-8-1 ATS with their win over the Eagles in Week 15, but as detailed in the intro, a lot went right for Chicago. That game was another reminder that a healthy Justin Fields might be the most electric player in the league, but outside of the Fields, the Bears don't have much else to offer. 

Meanwhile, the Bills won their fifth straight game Saturday night against Miami, but it was yet another near-letdown for Buffalo, which gave up some big plays and punted or turned the ball over on five consecutive drives to begin the second half. It's very possible that I'm simply picking nits with one of the league's best teams, but I'm still waiting for a signature butt-kicking from the Bills.

Facing off against a Bears team with the NFL's second-worst defense by DVOA, perhaps this is the week. However, with the weather in Chicago projected to be borderline-arctic – the forecast calls for a kickoff temperature of 6 degrees with 21mph winds – I think that plays to the Bears' favor. At the very least, it will likely slow both offenses down and prevent a true blowout scenario. 

I'll take the Bills to notch another win on the road and remain course for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but the Bears can cover.

The pick: Bills 24 – Bears 16

New Orleans Saints (+2.5) at Cleveland Browns

While the surface at Soldier Field may be rock-hard, conditions in Cleveland are expected to be even worse. 

Playing football in 12-degree weather is one thing, but adding in near-gale-force winds, plus the possibility of snow, could make this one of the least-appealing environments in recent history. As such, it makes sense that this game carries easily the lowest total of the season (32.0). By the way, the NFL record for lowest total is 28.0, as far as I'm aware.

Conditions aside, neither of these offenses are humming of late. Cleveland has scored exactly two offensive touchdowns in 12 quarters since Deshaun Watson took over, while the Saints have put up 13, 10, 27, 0, 16 and 21 points in their last six games (2-4 SU in that span).

For the most part, I don't like what I've seen from Watson since he debuted in Week 13, but Cleveland is still the team I trust more in a polar vortex scenario – especially if Nick Chubb's foot issue turns out to be a non-concern. 

Give me the home team to win and cover a predictably ugly game that comes in under 32.0.

The pick: Browns 17 – Saints 13

Seattle Seahawks (+10.0) at Kansas City Chiefs

This is a matchup that seems like it should be in the late window, but I digress. Much like the Bills, the Chiefs have won seven of their last eight games, but the majority of those have come in less-than-convincing fashion. After squandering a 27-0 lead against Denver in Week 14, Kansas City needed overtime to defeat the one-win Houston Texans. 

As long as Patrick Mahomes is on the roster, the Chiefs are always going to be near the top of the list of AFC Super Bowl contenders, but they'd like to build some momentum heading into the postseason. Mahomes and Co. look to be catching Seattle at the right time. Having dropped four of five games, the Seahawks are in danger of falling out of the playoff picture. A loss to Kansas City, plus a Detroit win over Carolina, would send Seattle's chances to grab a Wild Card spot down to just 17%, per FiveThirtyEight.

With Seattle's defense struggling and the offensive line crumbling – Geno Smith has taken 16 sacks in the last five games – I lean pretty heavily toward the Chiefs. Injuries on the Seattle side push me even more in that direction, as the Seahawks could be without both of their nose tackles, as well as starting running back Kenneth Walker. On top of that, Tyler Lockett will not play due to a broken finger.

The Chiefs covering a double-digit number has burned us more than once this season. Nonetheless, I'll take Kansas City to step on the gas and cover for the first time since Week 10.

The pick: Chiefs 31 – Seahawks 20

New York Giants (+4.0) at Minnesota Vikings

In a week littered with difficult picks, this one is among the toughest. With last week's record-setting comeback against the Colts, 10 of the Vikings' 11 wins this season have come by one score. Four of those victories ended with a game-winning field goal.

In other words, the Vikings continue to be one of the all-time luckiest teams in professional sports history. But at some point, you have to respect the consistency. While it feels like Minnesota will pay for its crimes come playoff time, the Vikings continue to find ways to pull out victories over inferior opponents. 

Playing at home for the fifth time in six weeks, I like Minnesota to win this game and move to 12-3. However, the Vikings will make enough mistakes to allow the Giants to hang around and cover.

The pick: Vikings 27 – Giants 24

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.0) at New England Patriots

At one point this season, the Bengals were a 4-4 football team. That's now a distant, distant memory as Cincinnati has ripped off six consecutive wins. I'll say it: the Bengals are approaching certified Wagon status. 

After surviving a number of key injuries against Cleveland in Week 14, Cincy fought back from a 17-0 deficit to outscore the Buccaneers 31-6 in the second half en route to a 34-23 victory. All season, the Bengals have been among the best halftime-adjustment teams in the league, allowing just 8.0 second-half points per game. The reliance has been impressive. The Bengals have been vulnerable to getting tripped up multiple times during the six-game winning streak, but every time they've found a way to respond.

On the other hand, we have the New England Patriots, who are coming off of one of the worst losses in NFL history. The Disaster in the Desert plunged the Pats' postseason chances below 20 percent and will likely serve as the lasting memory of an uncharacteristically disjointed and downright weird Patriots season.

New England can never be counted out, but it's hard to envision the Pats regrouping after last week and finding a way to shut down the Bengals' high-powered attack. The weather will play to New England's favor, but ultimately it's not enough to push me away from trusting Joe Burrow over Mac Jones in this spot.

Not only will I take the Bengals to win and cover their seventh straight game, I'm locking them up.

The pick: Bengals 23 – Patriots 17

Houston Texans (+4.5) at Tennessee Titans

We're in a tough spot here with Ryan Tannehill's status very much up in the air as of Wednesday morning. If Tannehill plays – that appears unlikely at this stage – it's safe to assume he'll be limited, but with the Cowboys looming in Week 17, I wouldn't be surprised if Tennessee holds him out and crosses its fingers with Malik Willis against Houston. The rookie has already beaten the Texans once this season – a week before he made his second straight start and took the Chiefs to overtime.

Since then, the Titans' season has been on a gradual decline, and they're suddenly in danger of forfeiting control of the AFC South. There's no team you'd rather see on the schedule than the Texans, but Houston has been frisky beyond belief in each of the last two weeks. If Tennessee lets its guard down, this could be a winnable game for Houston.

Under the assumption that Willis is starting, I'll take Tennessee to replicate its Week 8 game plan and grind out an unsightly straight up victory. Give me Houston to cover the 4.5, however.

The pick: Titans 17 – Texans 13

Saturday: Christmas Eve Late Games

Washington Commanders (+7.0) at San Francisco 49ers

The Commanders are still alive in the NFC playoff picture, but their chances were dealt a major blow with Sunday night's loss to the Giants. If we're being honest, Washington has probably been playing above its level – and feasting on mostly bad teams – for the last two months, so Sunday's letdown was mildly surprising, yet also completely predictable.

Things won't get any easier for Washington in Week 16, as the Commanders head out West for their final road game of the season to take on the NFL's top-ranked defense by DVOA, EPA and just about any other metric. At some point, starting a seventh-round rookie feels like it has to catch up with San Francisco, but Brock Purdy's first three games have been remarkably smooth.

The Commanders' defense is one of the best in the league at generating pressure, so this won't be a walk in the park for Purdy. But the Niners' defense is playing at a much higher level right now and should be able to control the pace of this game.

I'm not completely writing off Washington, but traveling cross-country after playing on Sunday night to face a team on nine days' rest is not an appealing scenario. I'll roll with the 49ers to push their cover streak to six straight games.

The pick: 49ers 24 – Commanders 14

Philadelphia Eagles (+4.5) at Dallas Cowboys

This line moved all the way up to Dallas -6.0 earlier in the week, but it's settled at a much more reasonable number in the wake of Jalen Hurts' shoulder injury. 

While the injury obviously changes the Eagles' short-term outlook, Philly is still the across-the-board favorite to win the NFC. Of course, it helps that San Francisco is on its third-string QB, Dallas very nearly lost to Jacksonville and Houston in consecutive weeks, Minnesota fell behind 33-0 to the Colts, and the Bucs are the Bucs.

With a capable, former-Jaguar stepping in at quarterback, I'm by no means writing the Eagles off in this spot. I'm a firm believer that Jalen Hurts is a deserving MVP frontrunner, but that doesn't mean Philly's offense can't function without him.

The Eagles will obviously miss Hurts' running ability – he's carried 16+ times in three of the last five games (7 TD in that span) – but Minshew should be plenty capable of keeping things moving through the air. The return of Dallas Goedert is a major boost, as well. Due in part to injuries, the Dallas defense has taken a step back in the last few weeks, and the Cowboys have already ruled Leighton Vander Esch out of Sunday's contest. 

At the end of the day, there's a bit too much risk for me to take the Eagles straight up, but I can't see them rolling over in what's still a meaningful game. Philly covers but Dallas pulls out a narrow home win.

The pick: Cowboys 27 – Eagles 23

Saturday Night Football

Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

I don't know how this keeps happening, but every week it feels like the Raiders find themselves in a true 50/50 game. Here we are yet again as Vegas heads out to Pittsburgh after finally coming out on the right side of a ridiculous ending.

This is a long trip for Vegas, and the conditions should favor the Steelers – at least on paper. Pittsburgh was able to move the ball on the ground against Carolina last week and now faces one of the NFL's worst rush defenses. Kenny Pickett should also be back under center for Pittsburgh.

Las Vegas has the higher-upside offense, but the Raiders have been much better at home this season than on the road (2-6 SU on the road). This should be a very close game – particularly if Josh Jacobs is able to get going – but I'll ride with the Steelers' defense in frigid, windy conditions. 

The pick: Steelers 23 – Raiders 20

🎄 Sunday: Christmas Day Games 🎄

Green Bay Packers (+4.0) at Miami Dolphins

It wasn't exactly a dominant effort, but the Packers did what they needed to do Monday night at Lambeau Field to keep their slim postseason chances alive. Green Bay needs to win out, and beating the Dolphins in Miami may be their biggest remaining hurdle (the Packers finish out with home matchups against Minnesota and Detroit).

Two weeks ago, it felt like Tua Tagovailoa was on the verge of a full-on implosion, but I actually thought he exceeded expectations at Buffalo last week, despite the Dolphins losing on a last-second field goal. Tua is much more comfortable at home (12-4 career ATS at home), and while it won't be 95 degrees in Miami, the conditions should play to the Dolphins' favor. 

Green Bay has seemingly figured out its rushing attack these last few weeks, so I expect the Packers to be able to move the ball and put up points. The question is whether Green Bay's porous defense can slow down Tua, Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. To me, the short answer is eh, probably not. And I also worry about the Packers' 32nd-ranked run defense by DVOA against a team that just racked up 188 rush yards on the Bills.

I see this as a close, high-pressure game in which both teams may have to empty their bag of tricks. Miami is 8-6, but a loss here would suddenly put their playoff hopes in jeopardy.

The Packers put up a spirited fight, but in a tale as old as time, the defense ultimately can't hold up. Dolphins win and cover at home while snapping Green Bay's 14-game win streak in the month of December.

Of note: Since opening at Dolphins -6.5 on Monday night, this line has moved significantly in favor of Green Bay over the last 48 hours. It's down to as low as 3.5 at some shops, as of Wednesday.

The pick: Dolphins 33 – Packers 28

Denver Broncos (-2.5) at Los Angeles Rams

This is yet another low-total (36.5) game, but these two teams can't blame the weather. Despite the fact that this game will be played in a dome, it could easily end up as the ugliest matchup of the week.

It's still unclear if Russell Wilson will be back for Denver, but the assumption is that he should be cleared to play after sitting out last week. Ultimately, I'm not sure that really matters as much as it would in years past, but it's worth noting that the line has moved a full point in favor of the Broncos over the last two days.

Frankly, I don't have much to say about this one. Denver's defense is the unit I trust the most – by a wide margin – so I'll take the Broncos to force a couple of Baker Mayfield turnovers and win another low-scoring game.

The pick: Broncos 17 – Rams 14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5) at Arizona Cardinals

The Bucs are in desperate need of any sort of positive momentum, and luckily they draw one of the most appealing matchups in the NFL. The Cardinals have some dangerous weapons on offense, but this a poorly coached and poorly disciplined team that could end up starting Trace McSorley – or perhaps even David Blough – at quarterback. If Colt McCoy (concussion) is unable to go, it's hard to see the Bucs suffering a letdown.

UPDATE:

With that said, the Bucs' offense remains a soul-crushing watch on a week-to-week basis. After putting together one its best first halves of the season against Cincinnati, the Bucs managed just six points in the second half – and even those came via a garbage-time touchdown with under a minute left. Coming out of halftime up 17-3, Tampa's ensuing six drives went as follows: downs (failed fake punt at own 26), interception (at own 31), fumble (at own 13), fumble (at own 33), interception (at midfield), 3-and-out punt.

Of course, the Panthers and Falcons both lost last week, so life is still good in the NFC South for Tampa Bay. But the season is far from over – Tampa faces Carolina and Atlanta in the final two weeks – and the Bucs can't afford to trip up.

I take no pleasure in supporting this dreadful Buccaneers team, but I'll side with Tom Brady over the potential McSorley-Blough two-headed monster. 

The pick: Buccaneers 24 – Cardinals 13

Monday Night Football

Los Angeles Chargers (-4.0) at Indianapolis Colts

The time has come.

The Colts officially announced Wednesday that they'll move on to their third starting quarterback of the season. The line hasn't moved at all, which tells us that either the oddsmakers knew this was coming, or the switch from Matt Ryan to Nick Foles really doesn't matter. I'm inclined to believe it's more about the latter, but – in theory, at least – Foles probably carries slightly more upside at this point than Ryan.

For what it's worth, this will be Foles' first start since Week 16 of last year, so maybe there's some weird symmetry going on here. In that start – his lone appearance of the season – Foles led the Bears to a 25-24 home win over the Seahawks, which included a game-winning touchdown (and a 2-point conversion) late in the fourth quarter.

While Foles could inject some life into the Colts' passing game, it will be interesting to note whether Indy can run the ball with Zack Moss and Deon Jackson on this bad Chargers rush defense. Conversely, this could be a good bounceback spot for Justin Herbert, who struggled more than I thought he would last week against Tennessee.

I don't think we get a blowout here, but Herbert should be plenty comfortable playing indoors at the Curtis Painter Dome. Considering it's the Chargers we're dealing with, there's a good chance they allow Indy to start fast and make this an interesting Monday night game. But over the course of four quarters, I like the Chargers' offense to win out and cover.

The pick: Chargers 28 – Colts 23