2022 NFL Offseason Guide: NFC South

This is Part 4 of an eight-article series that will provide a bird's eye view of where each team stands at the start of the offseason, looking at cap space, free agents, potential cap casualties and draft capital. We can't predict the future to perfection, but it helps to know this kind of stuff if you're drafting best-ball teams or making dynasty trades in February and early March before free agency begins.

On Monday, we covered the NFC West.

Tuesday, it was the NFC North.

Wednesday, the NFC East.

And now, to wrap up the NFC, we'll take a look at the South...

Atlanta Falcons

Cap Space: -$13,2 million (26th)

Potential Cap Casualties: QB Matt Ryan, DT Grady Jarrett, RB Mike Davis

Detailed Cap Sheet: https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/atlanta-falcons/

The Falcons have four players scheduled for 2022 cap hits above $20 million, including Ryan at an absurd $48.7 million, not to mention a $15.5 million dead-money charge for Julio Jones (who was traded after June 1 last year). All of that's far from ideal, especially for a team with a subpar roster and an uncertain future at the game's most important position (Ryan turns 37 in May, and hasn't been all that good since 2018).

If the Falcons were to trade Ryan before June 1, it would be a strong signal toward a rebuilding year with all $40.5 million of his dead money put on the 2022 cap sheet. The other options are a release with a post-June 1 designation or a trade that occurs after June 1, both of which would allow Atlanta to push about $15.6 million of the dead money to 2023 (leaving $25 million in 2022, which is a huge number but still $23.7 million less than what's currently scheduled).

The team can free up another $16.5 million by cutting Jarrett, whose base salary is devoid of guarantees in the final year of his contract. As with Ryan, the Falcons could opt for a renegotiation or extension rather than saying goodbye to Jarrett, a long-time standout coming off a down year. (I'd trade Ryan, release Jarrett and start a rebuild, but hey, it's not my team.)

Other options for freeing up cap space include renegotiations with LT Jake Matthews ($23.7 million cap hit) and MLB Deion Jones ($20.1 million), along with some potential smaller cuts like DT Tyeler Davison (freeing up $3.7 million) and RB Mike Davis ($2.5 million cleared).

Key Free Agents: RB Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Russell Gage, TE Hayden Hurst, LB Foyesade Oluokun, S Duron Harmon, CB Fabian Moreau, S Erik Harris, DE/OLB Dante Fowler

Draft Capital: 1st (8), 2nd (43), 2nd (58) 3rd (74), 4th (112), 6th (188), 6th (212)

The Falcons have all their own picks (apart from Round 7), plus Tennessee's second-rounder. They also have a lot of weaknesses to address, particularly on the defensive side, though WR becomes equally problematic if Calvin Ridley isn't part of the equation (and QB trumps all if Ryan is cut/ traded). 

The cap situation makes them unlikely to shop at the top of the market in free agency, but the Falcons should be able to retain most of their own guys....if they want them. Patterson and Gage are the two we care about for fantasy, and both arguably would have their best volume projections if they were to stay in Atlanta. Of course, that won't be nearly as promising if they're part of a rebuilding team — perhaps one with a rookie at QB instead of Ryan?  

The (Way-Too-Early) Verdict: Yuck?

QB uncertainty isn't always a bad thing, but it doesn't feel great when you're looking at a weak draft class and don't have any shot to attract the top free agents. It's unlikely the Falcons find a short-term upgrade over Ryan, and we also have to account for the possibility of further decline from the veteran QB (if he stays). I'm still interested in Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts because they're studs, but I'll pass on the lesser players who capitalized on larger-than-expected roles in 2021 (Patterson, Gage).

Carolina Panthers

Cap Space: $11.1 million (15th)

Potential Cap Casualties: WR Robby Anderson, OL Dennis Daley

Detailed Cap Sheet: https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/carolina-panthers/

You know you had a bad season when you're a potential cap casualty even though 80 percent of your salary the following year is guaranteed. So it is for Anderson, scheduled for a $10 million salary in 2022, and yet the Panthers might still release him to avoid the other 20 percent ($2 million) plus a $2.8 million roster bonus. 

If so, they'd likely give him a June 1 designation (or wait until after June 1). He's a guy who could make it to camp but then end up cut or traded late in the game... in other words, the best-case scenario for RA's dynasty managers is probably a trade/release early in the offseason. Either that, or the Panthers somehow tricking a top QB into joining them.

The full guarantee on Sam Darnold's fifth-year option ($18.9) is a killer, but the Panthers don't have many bad contracts otherwise, and they can always free up additional space by converting salary into bonus money for their top players (RB Christian McCaffrey, LB Shaq Thompson and OT Taylor Moton all have base salaries above $8 million for 2022).

Key Free Agents: QB Cam Newton, CB Donte Jackson, CB Stephon Gilmore, DE/OLB Haason Reddick, C Matt Paradis, LB Jermaine Carter, RG John Miller

Draft Capital: 1st (6), 4th (106), 5th (143), 5th (148), 6th (198), 7th (245)

Jackson, Gilmore, Paradis and Reddick are quality players, and Gilmore was a superstar as recently as two years ago. The Panthers shouldn't have too much trouble retaining their own guys or finding adequate replacements, but they're middle of the pack in terms of both cap space and draft capital (no picks between 6th and 106th overall), which is a tough place to be when you desperately need a QB and aren't exactly loaded at most other positions.

The (Way-Too-Early) Verdict: Playoffs? Probably not. An entertaining non-playoff team with useful fantasy players? Quite possibly, especially if they get an actual starting-caliber QB. I don't buy that they'll be able to attract a top guy, but that doesn't mean it'll be a complete disaster like last year. Even someone like Jimmy Garoppolo could do enough to coax bounce-back seasons from Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore. 

Then there's personal favorite Terrace Marshall, who did absolutely nothing as a rookie second-round pick. Just remember that Matt Rhule seemingly wants a more run-oriented offense (though new OC Ben McAdoo isn't exactly known for pounding the rock).

New Orleans Saints

Cap Space: -$79.7 million (32nd)

Potential Cap Casualties: DE Cameron Jordan, LB Demario Davis, DT David Onyemata, K Wil Lutz, S Malcolm Jenkins, CB Bradley Roby

Detailed Cap Sheet: https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/new-orleans-saints/

Some of the guys listed above could be traded rather than released, with up to $52.5 million in cap relief available if the Saints get rid of all six. They can also make some smaller cuts that free up a couple million apiece without losing key starters, but there's no way to do it without giving up at least one or two talented veterans.

If they do want to keep the likes of Jordan and Davis around, the Saints can renegotiate to lower cap hits for Michael Thomas ($24.7 million), Jordan ($23.2 million), G Andrus Peat ($15.5 million), RT Ryan Ramczyk ($23.0 million), CB Marshon Lattimore (27.5 million) and RB Alvin Kamara ($14.5 million)

Key Free Agents: QB Jameis Winston, WR Tre'Quan Smith, LT Terron Armstead, S Marcus Williams, DB P.J. Williams, LB Kwon Alexander, QB Trevor Siemian, WR Kenny Stills, WR Deonte Harris (RFA)

Draft Capital: 1st (18), 2nd (49), 3rd (100), 4th (118), 4th (136), 5th (160), 6th (214), 7th (235)

Technically, Marcus Williams is the only free agent who played even half the snaps on either side of the ball for New Orleans last year. However, there were four others in the 44-49 percent range, including stud blindside protector Armstead amidst an injury-plagued season.

At the skill positions, none of the guys listed above is essential, though any of them could be retained if the price is right. Harris, coming off a breakout season, is a restricted free agent and thus the best bet to be retained of the bunch. Winston and Tre'Quan Smith could be starters for the Saints or other teams next year, but they could just as easily be backups.

The (Way-Too-Early) Verdict: While Sean Payton's departure has a lot of people thinking rebuild, the Saints may first see if there's a way to upgrade at QB without losing their top players at other positions. Everything is in play here, from an all-out rebuild to a last-ditch run at a championship with a new QB.

That's a lot of uncertainty for Kamara and Thomas, though both are talented enough that they're sure to see plenty of touches/targets whenever healthy. Meanwhile, the likes of Deonte Harris, Marquez Callaway and Adam Trautman should probably worry about competition from rookies more so than pricey free-agent additions.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Cap Space: $90,000 (21st)

Potential Cap Casualties: TE Cameron Brate, K Ryan Succop, P Bradley Pinion

Detailed Cap Sheet: https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/tampa-bay-buccaneers/

The Bucs can add around $12 million cap space if Tom Brady's retirement is processed on/after June 1, albeit with a $24 million dead-money charge in 2023 (the alternative is eating it all this season and then losing around $12 million in cap space instead of gaining $12 million).

Apart from that, creating cap space will mostly be a matter of renegotiating with veterans like Mike Evans, Ali Marpet and Shaquil Barrett. Brate's release would free up around $6.8 million, but the Bucs don't have any other likely cuts for more than $2-3 mill (and Brate could always accept another pay cut instead of being released).

Key Free Agents: WR Chris Godwin, RB Leonard Fournette, TE Rob Gronkowski, TE O.J. Howard, RB Ronald Jones, OLB Jason Pierre-Paul, C Ryan Jensen, CB Carlton Davis, DT Ndamukong Suh, DL William Gholston 

Draft Capital: 1st (27), 2nd (60), 3rd (91), 4th (131), 5th (169), 7th (246), 7th (261)

The Bucs have a lot of talent headed for unrestricted free agency this offseason, and while Brady's departure may free up cap space, it won't necessarily make things easier if the Bucs want to keep their veteran core intact again. Gronkowski, of course, is more likely to retire (or sign elsewhere) with Brady out of the picture, and it won't be as easy to keep Fournette and Godwin this offseason.

The (Way-Too-Early) Verdict: Godwin's ACL tear likely ended any thought of franchising him for a second straight offseason, while Fournette is headed for a raise after proving his performance in the 2021 playoffs was no fluke. The Bucs do have four out of five starters on their excellent O-line under contract — with Jensen being the only free agent — and the front seven on defense will still have a few standouts even if JPP and Suh leave (both are well into their 30s and coming off down years, in any case).

Mediocre QB play might not be enough to win another ring post-Brady, but it likely would be enough to keep Tampa Bay atop the unimpressive NFC South. The Bucs figure to explore veteran options before turning to Kyle Trask or a rookie.