East Coast Offense: 20 Bold Predictions

This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.

East Coast Offense -- Year 15

When I started with RotoWire (then RotoNews) in the late '90s, people told me two things: (1) We're in a new era where people no longer stay in one job their whole lives; and (2) That fantasy sports was not a realistic vocation. Well here I am writing the same column for the 15th year. And this is actually my new column. Beating the Book turns 22 this week, and Staff Picks, 21. 

I explained the idea of East Coast Offense about as well as I could last year, so I won't repeat myself. Briefly, what you read in these pages will change unpredictably. One week, I'll be complaining about the officials, and the next I'll be talking about how my second-year wide receiver strategy has failed totally (hypothetically.) COVID and the politicization of everything hopefully won't take up an undue amount of space. If it does, something's gone wrong. Normally I assume the worst-case scenario and let the universe over-deliver, but I have an odd feeling the NFL will be an oasis of normalcy this fall. That could qualify as my first bold prediction actually, but I'd rather get graded on the football stuff (see below.)

This Week's Trivia

Apropos of all the Year 2 WR I drafted this year, can you name all the second-year wide receivers since 2015 to score at least 200 PPR points?

Guessing The Lines

It looks like I'm on the Bengals by a wide margin and no one else by more than two. Apparently, I like the Steelers, Bills and Colts a little bit. Of course, I reserve the right to change my mind when Beating the Book comes out later this week. 

Players I Don't Own

I'm in seven leagues this year, not including my League Of Leagues (three sports) team, drafted by Dalton Del Don, one best ball league and one dynasty league. You can see my teams here.

Here's who I don't have on any of them:

Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry, Miles Sanders, Davante Adams, Kenyan Drake, Josh Jacobs, Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce. Kenny Golladay, James Conner, Allen Robinson, Mike Evans, Todd Gurley, Chris Carson, Cooper Kupp, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Le'Veon Bell, Leonard Fournette, David Johnson, Amari Cooper, Calvin Ridley, A.J. Brown, Robert Woods, Courtland Sutton, Cam Akers, Raheem Mostert, Tyler Lockett, Kareem Hunt, Devin Singletary, Zach Ertz, Keenan Allen, Mark Ingram, David Montgomery, DeVante Parker, T.Y. Hilton, Stefon Diggs, Darren Waller, Tyler Boyd, Russell Wilson, Will Fuller, Deshaun Watson, A.J. Green. 

How is it possible none of these players landed on any of my seven teams? They fall into two categories: (1) Players I didn't get due to draft/auction circumstances; and (2) Players of whom I wanted no part at their ADPs.

The first category of players is: McCaffrey, Elliott, , Mixon, Adams, Jacobs, Jones, Jones, Mahomes, Kelce, Conner, Robinson, Kupp, Smith-Schuster, Bell, Cooper, Ridley, Brown, Sutton, Akers, Lockett, Hunt, Singletary, Ertz, Allen, Parker, Waller, Boyd and Wilson. 

But Dalvin Cook is injury prone and playing without a new contract, Derrick Henry had 386 carries including the postseason last year and is carrying a lot of weight on his body, Miles Sanders was banged up and has never carried a full load, Kenyan Drake has lost the trust of two different coaches and has never had 200 carries, Austin Ekeler is 5-10, 200, probably won't see 170 carries or all the goal-line work and is playing with a new QB, DeAndre Hopkins has lost a step and is switching teams, Kenny Golladay is already almost 27 and has never been a target hog, Mike Evans is a deep threat with a QB that likes to get rid of the ball quickly, Todd Gurley has bad knees, Chris Carson is injury and fumble prone, Leonard Fournette isn't very good, David Johnson's last good season was 2016, Robert Woods never gets red-zone looks or makes downfield catches, Raheem Mostert doesn't catch passes and is a system back, Mark Ingram is sharing carries with a better back, David Montgomery is banged-up and slow, T.Y. Hilton is past his prime and adjusting to a new QB, Stefon Diggs is paired with the league's least accurate QB, Will Fuller never stays healthy, Deshaun Watson takes too many sacks (injury risk) and A.J. Green is a long shot to be himself at age 32 with so many injuries. 

20 Non-Obvious Predictions for 2020

I've done this each of the last few seasons with mixed success. That's another way of saying success mixed with failure or just mixed failure. Here are last year's (not my best) for point of reference. Remember these are non-obvious, and no amount of mixed failure will deter me from making them in 2021, either -- assuming there is a 2021. 

1. Saquon Barkley will threaten the NFL record for Yards From Scrimmage

I'm copying this almost verbatim from last year's article:

"Threaten" is vague, so I'll say "come within 100 yards of Chris Johnson's 2,509, set in 2009." The only two players to surpass even 2,400 YFS are Johnson and Marshall Faulk (1999), so this would be no mean feat. But the Giants offensive line is much better this year, and Barkley, arguably the most physically gifted all-purpose back in NFL history, should see a ton of work in Year 3.

2. Odell Beckham will be a top-3 PPR wideout

Throw out Beckham's 2019 while playing in a dysfunctional offense on a new team while needing offseason abdominal surgery. Beckham is a top-five all-time talent, healthy now and still in his late prime. The Browns also have a narrow passing tree -- only he and Jarvis Landry see regular targets among the wideouts and Kareem Hunt and Austin Hooper are hardly target hogs at their respective positions. 

3. At least one of the following Year 2 wideouts will finish in the top-25 (PPR): Darius Slayton, Preston Williams, Mecole Hardman, Diontae Johnson, N'Keal Harry, Hunter Renfrow, Parris Campbell, Steven Sims, Miles Boykin, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Andy Isabella and/or Scotty Miller. 

Year 2 is when receivers, often out of nowhere, break out. Last year we saw DJ Chark, Michael Gallup, DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley and Courtland Sutton do it. 

4. At least one of the following Year 2 receivers will finish top five (PPR): A.J. Brown, DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, Marquise Brown and/or Deebo Samuel.  

5. CeeDee Lamb (WR ADP 40) will be a top-20 PPR WR

He slipped to the Cowboys at pick 17 and has drawn rave reviews in camp. He should have a role right away and could easily equal or surpass his more highly-drafted teammates, Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, both of whom are good, but not spectacular. 

6. Dak Prescott will throw 40 touchdowns 

Not only are the Cowboys loaded at receiver, and Blake Jarwin should be an upgrade over Jason Witten at tight end, but new head coach Mike McCarthy loves to throw near the goal line. In fact, one year the Packers had the league leader in red-zone targets (Jordy Nelson, 29) and the No. 2 red zone target (Davante Adams, 23.) Under McCarthy, Aaron Rodgers threw for 38 or more TDs four times and 40 twice. 

7. At least one of these teams will make the playoffs: Jaguars, Bengals, Dolphins, Jets, Giants, Football Team, Panthers and/or Lions. 

I know, I know, collectively they have a pretty good chance, but still it's hard to imagine, i.e., non obvious. 

8. Rob Gronkowski (minimum 10 games) will score at least eight touchdowns

He's only 31, had a year off to get completely healthy, has been solid -- and more importantly healthy -- in training camp and gets his long time QB back in Tampa. This is the greatest tight end of all time still in his late prime (TEs age better than RBs or WR.) Health is the only risk. 

9. Cam Newton (NFFC QB ADP 18) will outproduce Josh Allen (ADP 9)

Newton is Allen with more accuracy. While Allen has better receivers, Newton is in a better system and is a better decision maker. 

10. Joe Burrow (ADP 19) will outproduce Aaron Rodgers (ADP 13)

This one is actually borderline for me since Rodgers does have a decent floor, but give me Burrow's ceiling all day. Rodgers barely runs anymore, doesn't take chances and doesn't trust anyone besides Davante Adams. 

11. Nick Chubb (ADP 14) will be a top-7 PPR RB

Chubb is one of the best rushers in the league, has a far better offensive line than last year, should be in a much more functional offense and will still catch some passes on early downs even while ceding third downs to Kareem Hunt. 

12. T.Y. Hilton (ADP 26) will not be a top-40 PPR WR

Hilton is a good player, but he'll be 31 in November, has battled soft tissue injuries over the last year, is playing with a new QB with a weak arm and for a run-first team with a presumably improved defense. It doesn't help that the Colts used second-round picks on wideouts the last two years. 

13. Julian Edelman (ADP 33) will not be a top-50 WR

Edelman is 34, lost Tom Brady, has a history of concussions and dropped 19 passes over the last two years. Newton is good, but unlike Brady he doesn't need to get rid of the ball so quickly.  

14. Austin Ekeler (RB ADP 11) will not be a top-20 PPR RB 

If he does get into the top-20, it'll be because a lot of the workhorses got hurt. Ekeler will be lucky to get 150 carries and regular goal-line work, as he's 5-10, 200. He's a legitimately great route-runner and pass catcher, but he loses dump-off king Philip Rivers and gets a mobile QB in Tyrod Taylor who's likely to take off when things break down. Think Tarik Cohen more than Alvin Kamara this year. 

15. The Giants will be top-10 this year in points scored

Daniel Jones and Darius Slayton are in Year 2, portending significant improvement for both, the team upgraded its offensive line with three picks, including No. 4 overall Andrew Thomas, and Evan Engram, Sterling Shepard and Saquon Barkley, who missed time with injuries, are now healthy. Moreover Golden Tate isn't suspended for four games this year. 

16. Mitchell Trubisky (ADP 33) will keep the Bears QB job all year and finish as a top-20 fantasy QB

He's bad, but he was also playing hurt last year, and his rushing ability will allow him to put up passable fantasy stats most weeks. Nick Foles is merely an overpaid backup. 

17. Derrick Henry (ADP 7) will finish outside the top-15 in PPR 

I love Henry the player and believe he's a real-life difference maker, but he had 386 carries last year including postseason, and at 6-3, 247 presents a huge target for defenders. He also had a hamstring problem late last year and is carrying a lot of upper-body weight on his legs for a running back. There are reports that he's improved as a pass catcher too, but I'll believe that when I see it. 

18. Van Jefferson (ADP 75) will outproduce Justin Jefferson (ADP 55)

Van has been lighting it up in camp, going toe to toe with Jalen Ramsey. The Rams used a second-round pick on him, even though he had foot surgery in March and couldn't participate in the combine. I'd expect him to be in the mix right away. 

19. Adam Thielen (ADP 12) will be top-three among WR in catches and targets

He's the only game in town now that Stefon Diggs is gone, and the Vikings' losses on defense will force them into more pass-heavy game flows. 

20. Some of these predictions will be wrong.

Hopefully, it's only No. 20.

If you enjoy this column, check out my weekly podcasts A Real Man Would and Talking Yang.