Exploiting the Matchups: Week 14 Start/Sit

If you're still reading this column there's a good chance you're preparing for a playoff matchup or else a win-or-go-home regular-season finale. So, I guess this is the part where I recommend "trusting your gut" or "sticking to what worked so far" or "playing your best players". Alternatively, it could be the part where I skip the useless clichés and instead spend my time writing about football players. Let's try Door B.

Before we get into specific players to upgrade or downgrade for Week 14, here are some of my favorite tools for analyzing matchups:

• Jeff Erickson's value meter
• RotoWire's weekly projections
• RotoWire's weekly composite rankings
• Betting odds
• RotoWire's pages for advanced stats and TE route data.
• Pace stats and DVOA from Football Outsiders
• Next Gen Stats from NFL.com
• Player Grades and Premium Stats from Pro Football Focus
• Personnel Grouping Frequencies and Run:Pass Ratios from SharpFootballStats.com
• airyards.com
• Opponent and teammate injuries
• Target share
• Snap counts
• Defense vs. Position stats

Note: Discussion below mostly is limited to players that are being started in 10-to-90 percent of lineups on Yahoo. There are plenty of other players with good or bad matchups, but we'll focus our energy on the guys most likely to be involved in difficult lineup decisions.

Note, Pt. 2: References to 'fantasy points' are based on scoring with 25/10 yardage, 4/6 TDs and 0.5 PPR, i.e., standard settings on Yahoo and FanDuel.

Upgrades

 QUARTERBACK

• Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA at NYJ

Fitzpatrick's numbers over the past seven weeks prorate to 4,185 passing yards, 233 rushing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, seven rushing TDs and 16 interceptions over a 16-game season, and he's done it against a reasonably difficult schedule with matchups against the Bills (twice), Steelers, Colts, Browns and Eagles. The 37-year-old also beat up on the Jets in Week 9, throwing for 288 yards and three touchdowns in Miami's only win first of three wins (and counting). Fitzmagic won't have home-field advantage for the rematch, but he will have the benefit of facing an injury-depleted secondary, along with the potential gain from his offense no longer wasting carries and targets on Kalen Ballage (IR-leg). This is also a nice spot for DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, Allen Hurns and even Albert Wilson.

• Honorable Mentions: Carson Wentz, PHI vs. NYG; Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. DET; Sam Darnold, MYJ vs. MIA; Baker Mayfield, CLE vs. CIN; Ryan Tannehill, TEN at OAK

RUNNING BACK

• Devonta Freeman, ATL vs. CAR

Freeman got a brutal matchup last week in his first game back from a foot injury, facing a Saints defense that's No. 6 in DVOA against the run (-16.1%), No. 8 in fantasy points allowed to running backs (15.9 per game) and No. 3 in yards per carry allowed to RBs (3.5). Predictably, Freeman managed just 64 total yards with no touchdown, but there was a silver lining when it came to workload: 17 carries and five targets on 67 percent snap share. 

He now lands at the other end of the matchup spectrum, facing a defense that was just gashed for 248 rushing yards by a Washington squad that previously had no more than 145 in any game. The Panthers rank dead last in run defense DVOA (17.8%), fantasy points allowed to RBs (27.8) and YPC allowed to RBs (5.4). That's why Ron Rivera was fired, not because Kyle Allen stinks.

• Jamaal Williams, GB vs. WAS

Coming off three straight games with double-digit carries, Williams is getting enough volume to survive as a fantasy asset in the wake of the inevitable end of his mid-season touchdown surge. Week 14 shapes up favorably for both workload and efficiency, with the Packers favored by 13 points against a Washington team that ranks 19th in run defense DVOA (-4.8%) and 21st in fantasy points allowed to RBs (22.4). Recent signing Tyler Ervin might steal a few snaps at the end of the game if it's a blowout, but Williams and Aaron Jones should already have nice stat lines in that scenario.

• Honorable Mentions: Devin Singletary, BUF vs. BAL; Joe Mixon, CIN at CLE; Kareem Hunt, CLE vs. CIN; Sony Michel, NE vs. KC; Tarik Cohen, CHI vs. DAL

WIDE RECEIVER

• Tyler Boyd, CIN at CLE

Boyd is on track for a 1,000-yard season, with his combination of talent and target volume allowing the 26-year-old to survive as a fantasy asset despite the travesty taking place around him. There's no need to worry about John Ross (shoulder) rejoining the lineup, as Boyd averaged 6.8 catches for 70.8 yards on 9.8 targets through the first four weeks of the season. There should be plenty of volume to go around, with Andy Dalton attempting 36 or more passes in each of his nine starts, including last week's easy win over the Jets. 

A matchup with the Browns might look tough on paper... until we consider that Josh Allen is the only decent quarterback they've faced since the end of October. Cornerback TJ Carrie has mostly gone unchallenged since he moved into the slot role, facing Brandon Allen (slot WR: DaeSean Hamilton), Josh Allen (Cole Beasley), Mason Rudolph (Tevin Jones), Ryan Fitzpatrick (Albert Wilson) and Devlin Hodges (Tevin Jones again).

• A.J. Brown, TEN at OAK

It's hard to promise more than three or four targets for any player in the run-heavy Tennessee offense, but we did get a positive indicator last week when Brown's snap share jumped up to 90 percent, his highest this season for any game in which Corey Davis was active. The rookie tied for the team lead with four targets, while Davis saw just two passes on 68 percent of snaps.

In any case, Brown doesn't need a ton of volume in order to excel, averaging 18.4 yards per catch and 11.6 per target, with his mark of 8.4 YAC per reception placing second among qualified wide receivers. He has a decent shot to blow up this Sunday, with the Titans getting a close spread (-2.5) as well as the fourth-largest over/under (46.5) of Week 14. The Raiders are 28th in pass defense DVOA (25.05%), 20th in fantasy points allowed to WRs (29.7) and 28th in YPT allowed to WRs (9.6).

• Honorable Mentions: Alshon Jeffery, PHI vs. NYG; Jamison Crowder and Robby Anderson, NYJ vs. MIA; Anthony Miller, CHI vs. DAL; Zach Pascal, IND at TB; Curtis Samuel, CAR at ATL; Darius Slayton, NYG at PHI; James Washington and Diontae Johnson, PIT at ARZ

TIGHT END

• Kyle Rudolph, MIN vs. DET

Adam Thielen's hamstring injury reopened the door to fantasy relevance for Rudolph, who then responded with averages of 4.0 catches for 38.2 yards and 1.0 touchdown (13.8 PPR points) on 5.0 targets over his past six games. The reliance on TDs is familiar and perhaps a bit scary, but it's less of a problem when the Vikings carry the second-largest implied total (27.75) of the week. Plus, Rudolph has three performances of 50 or more yards during his six-game surge, including a 5-58-1 receiving line at Detroit back in Week 7. The Lions are 20th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends (9.8) and 30th in DVOA (24.1%) against the position. (Thielen is looking questionable-to-doubtful after a missed practice to start the week.)

• Honorable Mentions: Jack Doyle, IND at TB; Tyler Higbee, LAR vs. SEA; Ryan Griffin, NYJ vs. MIA; Mike Gesicki, MIA at NYJ; Jonnu Smith, TEN at OAK; Vance McDonald, PIT at ARZ

KICKER 

• Dan Bailey, MIN vs. DET

Bailey's recent production hasn't been great, in part because the Minnesota offense tends to provide PATs instead of field-goal attempts. It makes sense for a team with good tight ends and an impressive rushing attack to rank third in red-zone TD rate (68.3 percent), but that's ultimately less important than simply being good enough to set up some type of opportunity, be it for one point or three. Bailey at least has done a nice job taking advantage of what he's been given, converting 89 percent of FGAs and 92 percent of PATs, including 4-of-6 in the 40-49 range and 2-of-2 from 50-plus. Long story short, Bailey is a decent kicker on a team with the second-largest implied total of the week — no need to make it more complicated than that... even though I just tried to.

• Honorable mentions: Jake Elliott, PHI vs. NYG; Sam Ficken, NYJ vs. MIA; Mason Crosby, GB vs. WAS

Downgrades

QUARTERBACK

• Kyler Murray, ARZ vs. PIT

This matchup looks brutal at first glance and even worse upon closer examination. Murray has taken a league-high 41 sacks and thrown for 6.7 yards per attempt (27th among 33 qualified passers), while the Pittsburgh defense has piled up 43 sacks (3rd) and limited opponents to 6.9 YPA (7th). Murray probably needs a rushing TD in order to avoid a crash-and-burn scenario, considering the Steelers have allowed just one QB performance above 16.8 fantasy points since Week 2. Victims include Lamar Jackson (14.4 FP), Jared Goff (5.7), Jimmy Garoppolo (11.4), Ryan Fitzpatrick (13.3), Andy Dalton (4.6) and Baker Mayfield (21.8, 9.0).

• Not-so-Honorable Mentions: Josh Allen, BUF vs. BAL; Drew Brees, NO vs. SF

RUNNING BACK

• Derrius Guice, WAS at GB

Guice is extremely talented, and the Packers have struggled against the run. Still, I can't pull the trigger on starting a timeshare running back from a team with an implied total of 14.25 points, playing on the road as 13-point underdogs. The one thing that might change my mind is a definitive report about Adrian Peterson having his role scaled back, but don't hold your breath on that one.

• Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida, SF at NO

Coleman is an obvious no-go after his continued struggles led to a quasi-benching during the Week 13 loss at Baltimore. The 49ers let Mostert rumble for 146 rushing yards on 19 carries and 74 percent of snaps, the largest share of playing time for any of the team's running backs in a game this season. Mostert would be a must-start in any matchup if we could promise the same workload for Week 14, but it's the furthest thing from a guarantee after Breida (ankle) upgraded to full practice participation Wednesday. This will likely be a two/three-way timeshare, which is a tough sell in a road game against a stingy defense. The Saints are No. 6 in DVOA against the run (-16.1%), No. 4 in fantasy points allowed to RBs (15.9) and No. 3 in YPC allowed to RBs (3.5).

• Not-so-Honorable Mentions: Rashaad Penny, SEA at LAR; Marlon Mack (hand), Jordan Wilkins and Jonathan Williams, IND at TB; Bo Scarbrough, DET at MIN; Latavius Murray, NO vs. SF

WIDE RECEIVER

• Cole Beasley, BUF vs. BAL

An embarrassment of riches in the secondary has allowed the Ravens to use their best cornerback, Marlon Humphrey, as the slot man in nickel formations. He struggled with the new role initially, but Humphrey has settled in nicely since a Week 8 bye, allowing 146 yards on 26 throws into his coverage (5.6 average), per PFF. Beasley won't get much relief when he slides outside, either, facing one of Humphrey, Marcus Peters, Jimmy Smith or Brandon Carr. No wonder the Ravens haven't allowed a 100-yard receiver since Jarvis Landry in Week 4.

• D.J. Chark, JAX vs. LAC

My initial instinct was that Chark is simply too good to bench, but it's a decision I'll have the luxury of making in one dynasty league, and the numbers on Yahoo (71 percent started) suggest I'm not alone. It's logical that he tends to be on teams with other good WR options, considering the price of acquisition was either a late-round pick or a waiver/FAAB bid. Even with Gardner Minshew back in at quarterback, Chark gets a tough Week 14 draw, likely facing shadow coverage from Casey Hayward. The Chargers have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers (22.3), combining solid cornerback play with subpar run defense (24th in DVOA) and a slow-placed offense (25th overall, 30th in neutral-situation pace). This isn't the worst matchup in terms of efficiency, but it's a rough one for the volume projection.

• Not-so-Honorable Mentions: John Brown, BUF vs. BAL; Marquise Brown, BAL at BUF; Sammy Watkins, KC at NE; Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk, ARZ vs. PIT; Dede Westbrook, JAX vs. LAC

TIGHT END

• Jared Cook, NO vs. SF

Cook has been a reliable fantasy producer ever since Drew Brees returned from a thumb injury, but it helps that he's faced the Falcons (twice), Panthers and Bucs in that stretch — all teams that have allowed 7.3 YPT or more to tight ends. The 49ers, on the other hand, have limited TEs to a league-low 4.8 YPT, sitting No. 1 in fantasy points allowed to the position (5.8). We've also seen a few signs that workload could be a problem moving forward, with Cook playing just 58 percent of snaps in back-to-back weeks,  running a route on 71 percent of QB dropbacks in that span, per PFF. Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara are still the only guys we can trust from the Saints offense.

• Not-so-Honorable Mention: Dawson Knox, BUF vs. BAL; Noah Fant, DEN at HOU