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2012 Sleepers Series - The Rookie Specials

Last year I set a rule for my Sleepers Series that excluded rookies drafted in the first four rounds from being considered sleepers (I broke said rule once). This year I decided that is a fairly stupid rule.

Every season some rookie inevitably shows up that either went undrafted in most leagues or was a late-round flier pick. Those guys are and have to be considered sleepers. My reasoning last year for not including them was simply that rookies drafted in the earlier rounds should all be fighting for starting spots or significant playing time during training camp and should be weighted as potential starters come draft day. And that's true. They generally are in that mix and some win key jobs. But they still have done nothing as pros and it's difficult to project their production. So if they're even selected, they generally fall in drafts until someone who believes in the talent takes a chance—just like with any other sleeper.

We recently saw Torrey Smith unexpectedly emerge to have a strong rookie year and DeMarco Murray blow up for a few weeks. The year before Tampa teammates Mike Williams and LeGarrette Blount were rookie darlings. In '09 some guy named Mike Wallace had a surprise impact. Oh and there's that Cam Newton monstrous 2011 to really hammer home the point.

So don't be afraid to take a rookie or two late. Watch their preseason development, consider what their role may become during the year and roll the dice. With a particularly deep group of rookie receivers, Michael Floyd and Justin Blackmon shouldn't be the only ones to shine early.



The Rookie Specials – the young guns that could work their way into starting gigs or quickly develop into team leaders, they are further under the radar than the handful of elite rookies that are locks for big workloads. Each year an unsung rookie or two deserves regular starts and some even turn into stars. These are the most likely to be those guys.

-    David Wilson, RB, New York Giants (5-10, 205 ; age 21)
Wilson will be drafted in all leagues and could go as one of the top backup rushers if he looks good during the preseason. He's ultra quick, explosive through the line and bounces off arm tackles. He is as talented a back right now as Ahmad Bradshaw, and by the end of the season, he could be more productive. Bradshaw will be playing out the rest of his career on a bionic foot and is a major candidate to miss time or at least have to play through significant pain. Wilson was drafted in the first round to be the Giants' eventual starter, and if Bradshaw misses any time this year (a strong possibility), that eventuality could be sooner than later. Either way, don't be surprised if there's almost an even split in carries between the two similar backs.

-    Ryan Broyles, WR, Detroit Lions (5-10, 188 ; age 24)

Easily one of my favorite sleepers, Broyles should be a perfect fit in the Lions' pass-happy offense and will take over the starting slot role and be the team's second leading receiver, maybe as early as this season. Though he's coming off a torn ACL and could start the season on the PUP list, Broyles has all the tools necessary to make an immediate impact and develop into one of the league's top No. 2 receivers. With Calvin Johnson drawing so much attention, Broyles will always face lesser corners or even safeties and linebackers on underneath routes. Given his sure hands, great quickness and exceptional feel for getting open, expect him to become a fantastic PPR option and a very consistent source of yards as soon as he's healthy. And if he doesn't go to the PUP list, he's definitely a worthy late-round selection.

-    Coby Fleener, TE, Indianapolis Colts (6-6, 250 ; age 23)

Pierre Garcon left behind over 130 targets when he bolted for Washington. Dallas Clark and Jacob Tamme are no longer around to claim the 95 looks they combined for. That's more than 225 targets that now get to be spread out to new weapons. Fleener, who is a huge, supremely athletic, seam-stretching tight end, is an obvious bet to assume a large chunk of those looks. Rookie quarterbacks normally like to favor good tight ends as security blankets, but the rookie QB in Indy is no ordinary first-year passer. Andrew Luck and Fleener just so happen to have the Stanford connection, where Fleener was his favorite target last season. With the chemistry already in place and the overall talents of both players, Fleener could be one of the best reserve tight ends in fantasy and if he flashes in the preseason, he should be drafted late in all leagues.

-    Isaiah Pead, RB, St. Louis Rams (5-11, 200 ; age 22)

Steven Jackson is a physical freak. There's no doubt about that. But for all the strength and speed he boasts, he's still human. He turns 29 this summer, has more than 2,500 career touches to his name and has missed 10 games over the past five seasons due to a variety of injuries. Though Pead appears at first glance to be a change of pace back that was brought in to complement the Rams' perennial workhorse, he is more than likely the heir apparent to Jackson. Pead's burst and elusiveness in the open field rival any back from the rookie class and he's also a highly capable receiver who should do damage out of the backfield. He's a legit three-down back who compares favorably to a poor man's Chris Johnson. And considering that Jeff Fisher, who drafted and coached Johnson his first three seasons, averaged over 500 rush attempts from 2007-2009 with Tennessee, it's safe to expect a minimum of about 150 touches out of Pead this year. After all, the Rams didn't take him 50th overall to ride the pine. Draft him as a high-end handcuff with serious upside.

-    Mohamed Sanu, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (6-2, 211 ; age 22)

Sanu will battle it out in training camp with fellow rookie Marvin Jones to be the No. 2 wideout opposite A.J. Green. His better size and strength combined with his polished route running should give Sanu the edge and make him the third option for up-and-coming QB Andy Dalton. While he likely won't be a source of explosive plays, Sanu could still see upwards of 80 targets this year, which could translate to a solid flex play, particularly if he becomes a red zone weapon for Dalton.

-    Rueben Randle, WR, New York Giants (6-3, 208 ; age 21)
Randle has a chance to contribute from Day 1, particularly if Hakeem Nicks suffers any setbacks in his return from a broken foot. While he'll have to compete with Ramses Barden and possibly 2011 third-round pick Jerrel Jernigan, the job is likely his to lose. Randle is the type of athletic playmaker that could be effective with Eli Manning even if he struggles with the playbook and his route running as a rookie, so if he's thrust into a No. 2 role for any length of time, he would warrant a spot start because of his upside in the team's pass-heavy offense.

-    Lamar Miller, RB, Miami Dolphins (5-11, 212 ; age 21)

Miller is buried at the moment behind Reggie Bush and 2011 second-rounder Daniel Thomas, but the Dolphins did trade up to draft the explosive back, so the new coaching staff obviously likes him. And given that they did not select Thomas—who was underwhelming at best last year—Joe Philbin and Co. could favor Miller, who just so happens to be a much better fit for their zone-blocking scheme. Miller boasts 4.4-speed and accelerates to top gear very quickly which could make him a dangerous playmaker in the one-cut-and-go attack Miami figures to employ. Given Bush's lengthy injury history, a door could open to a huge opportunity for Miller if he supplants Thomas as the top backup. If there's any depth chart movement during the preseason and/or Miller looks impressive, he's definitely worth a late flier pick.

-    Ronnie Hillman, RB, Denver Broncos (5-9, 200 ; age 20)

The Broncos grabbed Hillman in the third round with the hopes that he can provide a Darren Sproles-esque impact. While it's easy to presume he's not at the level of a Sproles, it would also be a mistake to ignore the fact that he should be the primary third-down back for Peyton Manning. If the ultra-quick, slippery Hillman nets 100 carries and 50+ catches he could be a viable flex start some weeks depending on his yards-per-touch. Don't forget about the explosive mighty mite late in drafts, and if your league does overlook him, keep a close eye on Hillman as a priority free agent.

-    Stephen Hill, WR, New York Jets (6-4, 215 ; age 21)

Though the super athletic Georgia Tech product figures to be quite raw coming from a triple option college offense, Hill should have little trouble working his way into the starting lineup opposite Santonio Holmes. With just the oft-injured, underachieving Chaz Schilens and diminutive slot receiver Jeremy Kerley to battle for targets behind Holmes and tight end Dustin Keller, the lanky speedster could see as many as 80-100 targets this season. If he catches even half of those he could be primed for an 800-yard, 6-8 score rookie year, assuming his big-play ability leads to some long scores and his height and jump ball skills are utilized in the red zone. Hill is worth a late flier pick in all leagues because of his tremendous upside, and is particularly intriguing in dynasty and keeper leagues.

-    T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts (5-10, 183 ; age 22)

Though Hilton is a diminutive receiver, he's easily the most explosive of the Colts wideouts and could find his way onto the field very early to replace the big plays lost when Garcon left for Washington. His sub-4.4 speed and ability to line up all over should make him a fun player for Luck to throw to and a serious playmaker. Hilton is a very fluid athlete who gets in and out of his breaks smoothly and has the burst to run right by defensive backs. If he can absorb the playbook quickly and use his quickness and speed to beat jams, Hilton could be a major surprise this year. Since the Colts figure to be passing a ton while often playing from behind, he's definitely one to watch on the waiver wire.

-    Robert Turbin, RB, Seattle Seahawks (5-10, 222 ; age 22)

A power back with surprising quickness and long speed, Turbin is likely to see a fairly limited role as a rookie while he watches Marshawn Lynch run through would-be tacklers and gobble up scores and Skittles. However, he could be one of the better handcuffs to grab late in drafts if he flashes in the preseason. As a terrific receiver and underrated pass protector, Turbin could earn third-down duties right out of the gate, and should anything happen to Lynch, he has the skillset and body to assume the feature role with similar effectiveness.

-    Alshon Jeffery, WR, Chicago Bears (6-3, 220 ; age 22)

A lower leg injury prevented Jeffery from participating in the Bears' recent minicamp, so he could be behind the learning curve entering training camp. Nevertheless, he does bring promising ball skills and uncoachable size to a relatively small and thin Chicago receiving corps. If he can keep his conditioning up and refine his route running, there's a chance for him to be productive as a possession receiver and red zone target. Earl Bennett seems a good bet to start in the slot, and while Devin Hester will likely get the nod early to play opposite Brandon Marshall, there really isn't anything behind them. If Jeffery stays focused and fit don't be shocked if the Bears find 5-7 scores for him in something of a red zone specialist role.

-    Greg Childs, WR, Minnesota Vikings (6-3, 217 ; age 22)
Though Jerome Simpson is expected to slide right into the No. 2 receiver role opposite Percy Harvin, he'll first have to serve a three-game suspension. During his absence it is possible that Childs could replace him in the starting lineup. With good overall athleticism, excellent size and soft, reliable hadnds, Childs has the physical tools to be a very productive pro if he can maintain his health (had patella issues his final two years at Arkansas). If he does in fact earn the starting job while Simpson sits, that could lead to logging a lot of field time over the course of the season as no worse than the team's No. 3 receiver.

-    Kendall Wright, WR, Tennessee Titans (5-10, 196 ; age 22)

Wright is in a crowded receiving corps that could lead to a quiet rookie season. Nevertheless, he's a tremendously quick and elusive playmaker when he gets the ball in his hands and it's tough to imagine the Titans drafted him in the first round to have him sit back and learn the entire year. If Kenny Britt returns to full strength coming off a torn ACL, Wright will at best be the fourth option in the passing game, also behind Nate Washington and tight end Jared Cook. If he can beat out Damian Williams however to be the third wideout or Britt struggles to regain his form, Wright could emerge as an occasional flex play based on the right matchup. But for now he's just someone to watch during training camp and consider off waivers if he can crack the regular rotation.

-    Marvin McNutt, WR, Philadelphia Eagles (6-3, 216 ; age 22)
He doesn't have the speed of DeSean Jackson, the experience of Jason Avant and isn't the deep threat that Riley Cooper could be, but McNutt is the second best receiver on the Eagles right now. His hands may already be tops on the team and his combination of size and body control could make him an effective possession receiver as early as this season. However, since he's currently buried on the depth chart, he can be ignored in drafts unless injuries befall Philly during the preseason. Remember the name though, as it could become very hard for Andy Reid to keep him off the field come mid-season.

-    Chris Polk, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (5-11, 222 ; age 22)

Polk certainly didn't show any signs of a serious shoulder issue while he piled up over 3,400 total yards and 25 scores in his final two seasons in the Pac-10, and though the one-time projected second-round pick fell out of the draft because of concerns for his health, the Eagles were wise enough to scoop him up. A physical, every-down back with natural hands and decisive running instincts, Polk could overtake Dion Lewis as the top backup to LeSean McCoy during training camp. McCoy has been durable and dominant enough to not require drafting a handcuff for him, but should something happen, Polk could become a huge waiver wire pick-up.

-    Juron Criner, WR, Oakland Raiders (6-3, 224 ; age 22)

A highly productive, big-bodied collegiate receiver, Criner slipped to the fifth round of this year's draft because of exceptional depth at the position and teams were worried about his pedestrian speed. But with a slew of explosive playmakers at receiver, the Raiders took Criner to be a physical possession receiver and red zone target. His size, hands and jump ball skills (showed off an impressive 38-inch vertical at the combine) should get him field time early and could make him into one of Carson Palmer's favorite weapons near the goal line. With no experienced tight end on the roster, Criner could see a significant amount of targets as a chain mover as well, so he definitely warrants a close watch during the preseason and could even be worth a flier in deeper leagues come draft day.

-    Nick Toon, WR, New Orleans Saints (6-2, 215 ; age 23)
In a Drew Brees passing attack every weapon is worth watching. The Saints run a lot of spread formations and had four receivers that were fantasy relevant last year. With Toon drawing high praise from the coaching staff during OTA's for his strong hands and good route running, he appears to be the front runner to land the fourth receiver spot that was vacated by Robert Meachem. That means Toon could be just an injury or two away from a prominent role in one of the league's most prolific offenses. He's not a draft prospect at this point, but definitely a name to monitor during the year.

-    Marvin Jones, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (6-2, 199 ; age 22)

Other than having a bit of a thin frame, there are relatively few holes in Jones' game. He boasts sub-4.5 speed, good hands, excellent body control and runs smooth routes. While he appears to be behind Sanu at the moment for the starting gig opposite Green, it could become a dogfight in training camp and it's possible Jones could wrestle it away. If neither separates cleanly from the other however, it's also possible that the two end up splitting time and targets and negating each other's fantasy value. Either way, it's definitely a camp battle to watch and could result in a flex play for what should be one of the league's emerging pass attacks.

-    B.J. Cunningham, WR, Miami Dolphins (6-2, 215 ; age 23)

The best thing in Cunningham's favor entering his rookie year is the distinct lack of depth and an established leader in the Miami receiving corps. Although the young wideout doesn't boast the acceleration and speed to be a big-play threat or true No. 1 target, Cunningham brings a savvy understanding of the position that could help him emerge as a starter in the west coast attack being installed by new coach Joe Philbin. What he lacks in speed he makes up for with size, strong hands and good routes, so Cunningham could become the top possession receiver for the Dolphins before the year is out. He's no better than a name to keep on the waiver wire radar for now, but don't forget about him come October.

-    DeVier Posey, WR, Houston Texans (6-1, 212 ; age 22)

The lack of depth in the Texans' receiving corps could translate to early playing time and potentially a starting gig for this former Buckeye who had two promising seasons before missing virtually all of his senior year to suspension. With good speed and the strength to separate from defensive backs, Posey should be a nice possession target for Matt Schaub as the presence of Andre Johnson will mean he never sees more than single coverage from teams' second or third corners. His upside is limited by the Texans' run-first mentality and the targets Johnson and tight end Owen Daniels will eat up, but there could be 40-50 catches here as a rookie, which means a potential spot start could be had in deeper leagues.

-    Vick Ballard, RB, Indianapolis Colts (5-11, 219 ; age 21)

Though new coach Chuck Pagano has described former first-round pick Donald Brown as an "every-down back" the fact remains that the Colts' backfield enters 2012 with a lot of uncertainty. Delone Carter had surpassed Brown on the depth chart for the first half of last year and though he was not as effective as the latter, each received over 100 carries. Brown will enter training camp as the guy to beat, but he's never had more than the 134 carries he received last season and has missed eight games in his first three years with a wide variety of injuries. Ballard is mostly a one-dimensional north-south runner with little wiggle, but he is tough, relatively quick and posted two strong seasons in the super physical SEC Conference. He's another one for the scout team.