On Friday I looked at how the first and second round draft picks will impact the fantasy production of teammates on their respective rosters. In this post I've weeded through rounds 3-7 and picked out a number of guys that could make noise on their new teams.
In the same way I examined the top rookies, I've indicated these players as either being "vs." another guy or guys that they'll compete with for snaps from Day 1 or "for" a teammate that is clearly more established and who's value they could either raise or lower. As I also did with Part 1, the players are listed in an order from most to least valuable for fantasy play.
Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones vs. each other and Jordan Shipley
- Sanu will battle it out with Jones during training camp to see who can earn the starting gig opposite A.J. Green. Whoever comes out on top will have the first crack at stealing targets from the other and from Shipley as well. While the No. 1 and 2 options in the passing game still project to be Green and tight end Jermaine Gresham, the third receiver has definite fantasy value in what could become a pass-heavy offense, particularly if Andy Dalton improves further. Sanu is a bit bigger than Jones and projects as more of a possession receiver, but Jones is equally, if not more so, polished as a route runner, so this battle figures to be very neck-and-neck. In the end, it wouldn't surprise to see each receiver get similar reps and targets and for Shipley to end up getting more looks out of the slot than either. So while this situation could produce a solid fantasy reserve, it could also produce more headaches than help and be one to stay away from altogether.
Ronnie Hillman for Willis McGahee
- It shouldn't be overlooked that Hillman has a lot of work to do to improve his pass protection. While he was drafted to become the third down back and play a Darren Sproles-like role for the Broncos, he will need to be able to protect Peyton Manning first if he wants to see the field on passing downs. With great quickness and good open-field moves, Hillman should carve out a nice little role in the Denver offense as a rookie, but that doesn't mean he'll limit McGahee's carries too much. Though McGahee is on the wrong side of 30, he's still the most talented and capable runner on the team by a wide margin and should see upwards of 225 carries if he can stay healthy. Hillman will put just a small dent in his value by stealing some touches, but that dent could be balanced out by the huge pressure Manning's arm takes off the running game.
- Collie is more of a pure possession slot receiver, while Hilton can line up in the slot or outside because of his breakaway speed. Hilton has a good chance to step into a starting role immediately as the team's No. 3 receiver and given Collie's extensive struggles to stay healthy, Hilton has sleeper value as the best big-play threat in an offense that will likely have to throw a ton. Andrew Luck will rely heavily on Reggie Wayne and his two rookie tight ends, Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen, but Hilton will certainly get opportunities to make plays as a deep threat and an underneath option with plenty of wiggle and burst after the catch. With the new quarterback, coaching staff and the loss of Pierre Garcon, it's hard to say if Collie's value has been hurt, but it wasn't particularly high to begin with, and Hilton definitely has more upside at this point.
Marvin McNutt vs. Jason Avant and Riley Cooper
- McNutt may have been the biggest steal of the draft as far as all skill position players. He brings the size, athleticism and sticky hands to be an excellent possession receiver in the pros and should immediately challenge Avant and Cooper for the No. 3 spot in the Eagles' passing game. Avant has been steady for the last three seasons, but he's an unspectacular player who can disappear for long stretches. Cooper has plenty of length, but he's not as physical as McNutt and cannot play over the middle enough to land the No. 3 role in this offense. It's there for the taking for McNutt, and that could mean 50+ catches on an annual basis, making him someone to watch in PPR leagues in particular.
Devon Wylie vs. Steve Breaston
- Wylie has sleeper special written all over him. He's exceptionally quick in the slot and has the speed to burn through a secondary if he catches the ball in space. With Breaston competing for reps on the outside with Jon Baldwin, he could get pushed to the background some in Kansas City if Wyle emerges as the slot weapon he has the potential to become. And while Breaston and/or Baldwin will likely be drafted in most leagues, Wylie will almost certainly be available on waivers when the season begins.
Lamar Miller vs. Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas
- While there really won't be any fantasy value produced by the Dolphins' passing game, their run game could be interesting given the depth of potential it boasts. Bush had a breakout campaign last year and wants to lead the league in rushing this season. Personally, I wouldn't bet on Bush. The presence of Thomas and Miller alone tells me that he'll experience a drop-off in production. And that's just the tip of the iceberg for a Bush downgrade. He lost the offensive coordinator that helped make him a late-season star, as Brian Daboll packed up for Kansas City and he also lost the passing game to take pressure off the run when Brandon Marshall was shipped to Chicago. With a new coaching staff, new offensive system and no passing game to speak of, Bush will struggle. Oh yeah, and he has a slight injury history to worry about as well. Given that injury history, Thomas and Miller are worth late flyers this summer. Though they too will have to contend with the same obstacles as Bush, they remain unknown enough to warrant a shot. With Bush, it's likely he just had his career year.
Greg Childs and Jarius Wright vs. the Vikings receivers and for Percy Harvin
- The Vikings receiving corps should turn into a pretty interesting camp battle, and is one worth watching in case Christian Ponder makes strides in Year 2. Childs, with great size (6-3, 219) and 4.4-speed, is a diamond-in-the-rough candidate who could emerge as the No. 2 receiver opposite Percy Harvin. In a division that will force the Vikings to play from behind frequently, that could translate to good numbers for Harvin and any other receiver that steps forward. While tight ends Kyle Rudolph and John Carlson should be very much in the mix, a big outside threat like Childs still has the chance to excel. Jerome Simpson is likely to enter camp as the favorite to start opposite Harvin, but with him missing the first three games to suspension, the door is open for Childs, Wright or someone else to carve out a larger role in the offense. Wright is more of a clear-cut slot guy, so he could end up starting even if Simpson is the No. 2, but Childs could also be opposite Simpson with Harvin lining up in the slot. So while Harvin's value is completely safe, the rest of this group is completely up in the air.
Robert Turbin for Marshawn Lynch
- Turbin is a must-handcuff for Lynch. Minus Turbin's comic-book-hero arms, the two are nearly clones of one another in terms of physical stature and ability. If Lynch's aggressive running leads to injury, Turbin will step in as an every-down back and get enough touches to possibly produce as a No. 2 or at least No. 3 fantasy runner. It's too early to say he has similar upside to Lynch, but he could at least have similar opportunity if Lynch were to get injured. In the meantime, Turbin slightly knocks down Lynch's value a bit since he's likely to spell the Beast Mode at times and take 5-7 carries per game off his plate.
Nick Toon vs. Adrian Arrington
- Toon has already begun receiving praise for his impressive performance in the Saints rookie minicamp, and it's entirely plausible that he could play his way into the snaps that Robert Meachem vacated when he left for San Diego. Arrington has been in the system, but from a talent standpoint, he really doesn't pose a significant enough threat to keep Toon sidelined. So even though there are plenty of mouths to feed in New Orleans, Toon has the chance to get into the mix early and could be just an injury or two away from carrying flex-type value. After all, there is a pretty good quarterback down there in the Bayou.
B.J. Cunningham vs. the Dolphins receivers
- Cunningham is a good-sized, intelligent receiver with strong hands. In other words, he's an excellent fit for the West Coast attack new head coach Joe Philbin is expected to run. And considering the extreme dearth of talented wide receiving options in Miami, it's anyone's bet as to who will emerge as the team's go-to guy. Davone Bess is a solid slot receiver, but not someone who's ever going to post significant fantasy numbers. Brian Hartline is a decent outside receiver, but is at absolute best a No. 2 option, even in the league's worst receiving corps. Clyde Gates is a blazer but did nothing as a rookie last year and might be too one-dimensional to lead the team. That leaves Legedu Naanee, an underachieving journeyman, and a couple less talented rookies in Rishard Matthews and the undrafted Jeff Fuller. At the end of the day, if Tannehill is given the reigns of the offense, finding the Phins' best receiver is a moot point anyways, because they'll all be awful. But for now, I'm giving Cunningham a chance to be fantasy relevant.
- The Eagles robbed Polk as an undrafted free agent and his skillset fits the Philly offense almost perfectly. He's a great between the tackles runner and a gifted receiver who can stay in and adequately pass protect for Michael Vick. Concerns about a shoulder issue pushed him out of the draft but they won't keep him from supplanting Dion Lewis as the No. 2 in Philly. With Andy Reid already suggesting that McCoy will get less carries, that could mean Polk takes on the role that was intended for Ronnie Brown at the start of last year as a short yardage and possibly goal line option to limit the beating McCoy takes. While McCoy has been highly durable in his three seasons, if he were to incur an injury, Polk would certainly be worth owning given the upside in the Eagles' offense.
- Steve Smith is the dominant No. 1 in Carolina. Behind him, Greg Olsen and Brandon LaFell will likely fight it out for the next most targets, leaving Adams, a slot guy with electric open field moves, to battle Gettis for whatever is left. Coming off a torn ACL he suffered in last year's training camp, Gettis has a huge size advantage over Adams and could emerge as a go-to red zone option for Cam Newton. But Adams figures to get a good amount of snaps out of the slot, as it's a position the Panthers have failed to adequately fill for years. Because of Newton's arm, it would be remiss to rule out any of the Panther receiving options posting a good season, so Adams and Gettis are guys to watch in training camp.
DeVier Posey and Keshawn Martin vs. each other and Kevin Walter
- Posey and Martin will both get a chance to produce as rookies. Walter had a chance to serve as the Texans' top target for the majority of last season with Andre Johnson sidelined with a bad hammy and he put up just two measly games of meaningful fantasy production. He'll turn 31 this summer and is a long ways removed from a career-best 900-yard, 8-score 2008 season. If either of these young guys catches on in training camp, he becomes worth watching at the start of the season. There's a legitimate chance that either one could work his way into the No. 2 role opposite Johnson and have a solid rookie year. While Posey presents a bit more of a physical outside target, don't be surprised if the shiftier, more dynamic Martin puts up better numbers working out of the slot. In the end, it's possible each will cancel out the others' fantasy effectiveness and that none will be worth owning anytime soon.
Chris Givens vs. Brandon Gibson
- Givens has the speed to push Gibson almost completely out of the receiver rotation in St. Louis. The new coaching staff has no ties to Gibson and will look to develop their own guys first, so that could quickly spell the end of his tenure as a Ram. With Givens' higher upside, he's worth a look in the preseason to see if he can emerge as a starter, but it's more than likely that neither will be worth drafting in most leagues.
Danny Coale vs. Kevin Ogletree and Dwayne Harris
- Dallas needs a No. 3 receiver to take some heat off of the trio of Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. They drafted the dog-tough, sure-handed Coale to be that guy because they no longer have faith in Ogletree and swung and missed last year with Harris. Obviously there's no way Coale is coming anywhere near the numbers Laurent Robinson did as the No. 2/No. 3 receiver last year. He doesn't have the experience or physical skillset to come even close, even if an injury forced him into a larger role, as it did with Robinson. But Coale could develop into a competent and reasonably productive slot receiver this year, and should be watched on the waiver wire if he does earn that role.
- Can you say handcuff? Because that's the best Pierce can hope for in his rookie season behind one of the league's few true every-down backs. With his size and nose for the goal line Pierce displayed in college, it's likely he'll spell Rice as a power back complement and could vulture a touchdown or two. But unless Rice misses a game for the first time since 2008, he's not worth owning and certainly not worth a draft pick.