Mound Musings: NL West Draft Day Targets

And, down the stretch we come! Last week we looked at the AL Central, and this week and next, I'll continue to throw out some names for your consideration, covering the NL West this week and the AL West next. When the dust settles, we should be looking at Opening Day, and hopefully have a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2019 season. Let's look at the:

National League West

Arizona Diamondbacks – The introduction of a humidor turned a hitter's haven into a more neutral park, so the team's staff should be a bit more attractive than they were in the past, however the Diamondbacks have embarked on a rebuilding program. Many of their nucleus players are gone, but Zack Greinke and Robbie Ray return to anchor the rotation. I have always been a little skeptical of Greinke, and he is experiencing another of his mediocre spring campaigns. It's the norm for him. Reduced velocity and spotty command, but he's probably fine. I just think he is often overpriced on draft day, so I think I would take Ray and his very appealing strikeout rate. Like the first two, Zack Godley comes back and now takes the third spot. Don't be fooled. He's still a fifth starter. Next, we'll see a couple of newcomers, and both have some upside to offer. First, they added Luke Weaver. Weaver struggled much of last year with the Cardinals but he showed enough to remain solidly on my radar. Perhaps a change of scenery will get him back on track. They also brought in Merrill Kelly, who spent the past few seasons in Korea. I haven't seen a lot of him since he left the States, but pitchers seem to learn the art of pitching overseas, so I'm inclined to consider him. Matt Koch is the emergency starter, at least until Taijuan Walker returns around midseason. He's coming back from Tommy John surgery, so despite his raw ability, I would temper my expectations this season.

This is a bullpen that could easily evolve over the course of the year. Archie Bradley is currently the best bet to open as their closer but he could actually benefit from a more liberal usage pattern if the Snakes decide Greg Holland is ready to go. He has had a couple of rough outings this spring, but he has 189 career saves. Yoshihisa Hirano is a longshot for the gig, as Arizona likes him better in a set-up role where he is very effective. Righties Jimmie Sherfy and Yoan Lopez, along with southpaws Andrew Chafin and T.J. McFarland will typically handle the earlier innings.

Recapping the Diamondbacks:

The arm to own: Luke Weaver

He's not for me: Zack Godley

Best of the bullpen: Archie Bradley but monitor Greg Holland

Colorado Rockies – Unlike Arizona, Coors Field is still Coors Field, and pitchers who spend half their time there are still fantasy risks. It takes a special kind of pitcher to survive, let alone thrive, in Colorado. German Marquez might be that kind of special. His splits show a big gap between road and home performance, but he was much better at Coors in the second half. He has the stuff to get it done anywhere. Jon Gray is clearly another top arm on the staff. Apparently he had some health issues that sapped his strength last year, so let's give him a mulligan. With a very lively arm, he's worth considering. Kyle Freeland breaks the mold a bit. He doesn't have the big arm of Marquez or Gray, but I really like his mound presence. Just don't get carried away. There could be some regression this season. I suppose Tyler Anderson is next in line, but he still puts too many runners on base. Extra baserunners in that park is what nightmares are made of. The last spot is still in question. Chad Bettis is more of a finesse pitcher, and that's a rough way to make a living in Colorado, so I'm leery. He and Antonio Senzatela split time between the rotation and the bullpen last year, and it could happen again if the Rockies just play the hotter hand. The darkhorse candidate has the biggest raw arm of the bunch. Jeff Hoffman has the upside but not the experience so he'll need to turn some heads to claim a spot long term.

The Rockies have invested heavily in their bullpen, and it didn't work out so well last year. Wade Davis returns after logging 43 saves in 2018, the highest of his career. A Colorado closer comes with some ERA risk, but the saves should pile up. I have liked Seung Hwan Oh since he arrived in the United States. He will likely be the primary eighth-inning guy and might see a handful of save chances. And, they have a deep pen beyond those two with lefty Jake McGee, who is joined by a former set-up specialist Bryan Shaw along with Scott Oberg and Mike Dunn, allowing for favorable matchups.

Recapping the Rockies:

The arm to own: German Marquez

He's not for me: Chad Bettis

Best of the bullpen: Wade Davis

Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers and excellent pitching have been synonymous for as long as I can remember, and that's a long time. However, this year I'm not going to lead with Clayton Kershaw. He remains at the top of their rotation when healthy, and he'll likely be the first starter drafted or again carry the highest price tag in auctions. The concern would be nagging health issues that have taken him off the field, albeit briefly, the past couple of seasons. My featured arm in Dodgertown this season is Walker Buehler. Let's put it this way: He has the stuff and he has the mound presence. And, we haven't seen his best yet. If I were to compile a five-man dream fantasy rotation for the next several years, there is a very good chance Buehler would be on it. Enough said? Moving on, they aren't Buehlers or Kershaws – okay, who is – but Kenta Maeda and Rich Hill can certainly contribute to a productive fantasy rotation. Maeda is so versatile, and I love Hill's curveball (hitters aren't so fond of it), but at his age, you have to be concerned about him experiencing a conservative workload. The deep Dodgers' mound corps affords them that luxury. Injuries have kept Hyun-Jin Ryu off the mound a lot the past few years, but he's very effective when he's able to take a regular turn. He pitched just 82 innings last season, so his workload will be monitored, but he's a solid back-of-the-rotation guy if you have roster space. Ross Stripling would likely be a rotation lock for most teams. For the Dodgers, he'll probably be a fill-in fifth starter if Kershaw or any of the others can't answer the bell. Want more? Okay, lefty Julio Urias would be included in "future staff ace" discussions, but he has also struggled to stay healthy and has yet to reach his potential. Dynasty owners, take note.

Early last year, Kenley Jansen wasn't the dominant closer we've come to know and love. His dominating cutter had lost a couple of ticks and wasn't as sharp as it has always been. It came back somewhat, and the results improved, but a heart condition popped back up in August. The team is hoping an offseason procedure will have eliminated that concern, and Jansen looks like a new man this spring; in better shape, including weight loss, and he looks good. Hopefully the beast is back. Getting to Jansen is sometimes a little more challenging. Newcomer Joe Kelly should be a huge boost in bridging the gap, while Dylan Floro (he really stood out to me last year) and Pedro Baez are the right side keys. From the left side, Scott Alexander and Tony Cingrani provide balance. On paper, this is a unit that should be fairly reliable.

Recapping the Dodgers:

The arm to own: Walker Buehler

He's not for me: Hyun-Jin Ryu is just too fragile

Best of the bullpen: Kenley Jansen

San Diego Padres – This might be deemed a tale of two rotations in San Diego. One rotation, for the most part, will pitch now, waiting for the big guns to develop and arrive. Today (it could easily change soon) Joey Lucchesi, Robbie Erlin and Bryan Mitchell are at the top of the food chain. The best of that trio is probably Lucchesi, and he's really more of a back-of-the-rotation fantasy type. Save your coin for the kids. First up, maybe on Opening Day, is Chris Paddack. He has impressed this spring and appears ready for the show. Matt Strahm pitched out of the pen last season but should have a rotation spot this year. He's intriguing, and might be worth a flyer. Eric Lauer and Logan Allen might also see some starts, and while I don't project them as high as Paddack or even Strahm, they do have a bit of potential upside. Regular readers will know that my focus on the Friars staff was centered on Dinelson Lamet before he underwent Tommy John surgery, putting his development on hold. I haven't forgotten him, and neither should you. He could be back midseason, and there will probably be some rust, but have a look, especially in keeper formats. They also signed Garrett Richards, but he will miss the 2019 season. Have faith, they have more quality kids on the way. Their pitching-rich farm system features MacKenzie Gore, Adrian Morejon, Anderson Espinoza and Michel Baez – all high-quality prospects. Some of this group is probably scheduled to show up late this year and all have upside worth considering. In particular, I am anxious to see Gore hit town. He might have the highest ceiling in the organization.

The Padres have a pretty solid closer in Kirby Yates. Last year, at midseason, he moved into the closer's role when Brad Hand was dealt, and he proved to be a fairly competent end gamer. Unfortunately, the rest of the pen is rather unremarkable. I'll give a lukewarm edge to righty Phil Maton to eventually ease into a set-up role with veteran Craig Stammen. From the left side, Aaron Loup and the recently signed Sammy Solis should also see some meaningful innings.

Recapping the Padres:

The arm to own: Chris Paddack

He's not for me: Bryan Mitchell

Best of the bullpen: Kirby Yates

San Francisco Giants – If they were to do a remake of M.A.S.H., the Giants pitching staff could qualify for a good many credits. After six consecutive seasons tossing more than 200 innings, staff ace Madison Bumgarner suffered non-baseball shoulder and rib injuries in 2017, and a broken finger last year that cost him half of each season, and he hasn't really been himself since. He will hopefully be healthy and able to contribute his normal 200-plus frames this year, but his spring has not been very encouraging. Next up is Jeff Samardzija. I've always liked his stuff, but the injuries caught up with him, too. He tried to pitch through shoulder woes but he couldn't throw strikes, and, when he did, too many of them splashed down in McCovey Cove. It was ugly to say the least. That's two quality starters with major questions entering 2019, and I haven't even mentioned Johnny Cueto who will miss all of most of this season as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery. That's three frontline starters. Drew Pomeranz joins the Giants this year after a disastrous season where he posted an awful ERA (6.08) and WHIP (1.77), probably aided by neck and biceps injuries he suffered early in the year. I've never been much of a Pomeranz fan, but those peripherals underscore my outlook. If there is a bright spot, it might be Dereck Rodriguez. He surprised everyone with a sparkling season, but be cautious. His repertoire is just fair, and he succeeds more with mound presence than stuff. While I appreciate his composure, and I like the added velocity he brought to camp this spring, I don't anticipate a repeat. Derek Holland also enjoyed something of a renaissance in 2018. A higher strikeout rate coupled with a much lower walk rate will do that. I like Holland, but expecting even more improvement might be wishful thinking. Chris Stratton and lefty Andrew Suarez figure to see some starts given all the health issues, but both own pretty pedestrian stuff. Perhaps Tyler Beede will realize his once highly regarded potential. A former first-round pick, he has been brutal the past two seasons at Triple-A Sacramento, but he has looked like a top prospect this spring. 

The bullpen wasn't immune to the injury bug either. They spent a considerable amount of money to bring in Mark Melancon, who had averaged 49 saves a year over the previous two seasons. It didn't turn out as planned. Melancon suffered a forearm injury requiring surgery late in 2017 and then a flexor strain last spring that cost him two months. The now departed Hunter Strickland stepped in before breaking his hand in a fight with a wall. Melancon clearly wasn't 100 percent when he returned, so Will Smith took over the ninth inning duties and turned in a respectable performance. He and Melancon are competing for the role now, and Smith might have the edge, but if Melancon can prove he is healthy, I think there's a good chance he takes over at some point. In the category of bright spots, lefty Tony Watson is an excellent set-up man with Sam Dyson, Ray Black and Reyes Moronta also figuring into the mix. It's again all about Melancon. If he's ready to go, this could actually be a strength of the team.

Recapping the Giants:

The arm to own: Madison Bumgarner, but only at a significant discount

He's not for me: Drew Pomeranz

Best of the bullpen: Mark Melancon

Next week we'll wrap up our staff previews with a look at the AL West.