Mound Musings: A Look at Pitching in the NL East

With pitchers and catchers reporting, baseball season is upon us! For most leagues, draft day is on the horizon, and "wait until next year" is now. That's okay. We'll be ready. As in the past, I'll cover one division each week, and hopefully, we should have a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2020 season. Things will surely change as spring training progresses, but we handle those on the fly. Remember, the Musings are intended to be interactive. Ask questions, and share your opinions. That's what we're here for. Let's get to it and look at the:

National League East

Atlanta Braves – Many of the team pitching staff evaluations will focus on the "haves" and "have nots" of MLB. No teams ever really has enough pitching, but the Braves do appear to fall on the positive side of the ledger. Mike Soroka's health was a question mark last spring, but after missing a couple of April starts, he answered the bell every five days, and the results were outstanding. It's no secret I am a big Soroka fan, and the optimist in me actually expects even better days ahead. There were also cautious expectations regarding the promising, but unproven, Mike Foltynewicz, and it was a bit of a roller coaster ride, but I think a healthy Folty can be a fantasy asset. And they'll benefit from the veteran presence of newly acquired proven southpaw Cole Hamels. Hamels is a winner if his shoulder is sound. Next in line is another lefty, Max Fried. He enjoyed a stellar 2019, but I still see some things that concern me a bit going forward, so he might come at a higher price than I would be comfortable paying. The fifth starter slot is a competition. Veteran newcomer Felix Hernandez and young Sean Newcomb are probably the frontrunners, but there might be even better options pushing their way into the picture soon. The Braves still have an exceptionally deep pool of young arms, and a few are getting close. The closest is Kyle Wright, who could steal the job early on, and Ian Anderson is the best of their remaining pitching prospects, but they still don't need to rush him.  

Taking a quick look at the bullpen, Mark Melancon has deservedly been named the closer. Last year, he stabilized a bullpen in serious distress and he is a competent option when completely healthy – and that's a concern, he has to stay healthy. Lefty Will Smith is also on board (from the Giants) and likely will be a key contributor in the eighth inning, but I like Chris Martin a bit better as the guy to own if Melancon stumbles. They will be supported by guys like Luke Jackson and Shane Greene who should benefit from pitching in somewhat less stressful situations.

Recapping the Braves:

The arm to own: Mike Soroka

He'll likely be overpriced: Max Fried

Best of the bullpen: Mark Melancon, but keep an eye on Chris Martin.

Miami Marlins – The Marlins are the flip side of that "haves" and "have nots" coin. Most of their starter options are rather nondescript, and all come with at least some question marks, and none of them profile as top-of-the-rotation fantasy assets. There are some modest bright spots for the future. Sandy Alcantara came over in the Marcell Ozuna deal a couple years ago, and Sixto Sanchez was the headliner in the trade that sent J.T. Realmuto to Philadelphia, but Alcantara is still developing, and Sanchez isn't ready yet. I'm not a big fan of Caleb Smith, although he occasionally flashes some minimal competence. He and Pablo Lopez (who also looks fairly competent at times) are the cannon fodder that might fill out the middle of the rotation. Jordan Yamamoto might be marginally better than that pair, and I still think Jose Urena could be a fantasy sleeper. He has a live arm, but he's still learning to pitch and needs something reliable as an off speed pitch or he could end up at the back of their bullpen. Other than Sanchez, there aren't many truly quality young arms in the system. Maybe Braxton Garrett or perhaps Trevor Rogers might develop, but not this year. Consider Alcantara, if the price is right, but on the whole, this is a rotation to avoid.

The Marlins bullpen isn't much better than their rotation. At this writing, Ryne Stanek or Brandon Kintzler are the most likely candidates to pitch the ninth on days when the fish can carry a lead into the last frame. Stanek, the former "opener" has some tools, and Kintzler, the likely early-season favorite to close, has some experience but he's better in a set-up role. The guy to watch here is probably Urena, but the team may opt to keep developing him as a starter going forward.

Recapping the Marlins:

The arm to own: Sandy Alcantara, but don't go overboard.

He'll likely be overpriced: Caleb Smith

Best of the bullpen: Brandon Kintzler, but Urena fits if he ends up in the pen.

New York Mets – There have been notable additions (Rick Porcello) and subtractions (Zack Wheeler) to the Mets rotation, but it remains loaded with talent. Jacob deGrom is the ace and he deserves the title, but he could share it with Noah Syndergaard, who arguably is the best young arm in the game when at full strength. Health is a concern, still, he is as dominant as they come, and I'm still all in on him. I really think Thor could use a change of scenery, and there is certainly a chance he could underperform again, but I can't get past that sky-high ceiling. After years of injury woes, Marcus Stroman looks like a great fit for the Mets, but solid defense is a must, and I question whether that is going to happen. I don't list him in the top tier, but he could be useful at the right price. The same could be said of Porcello. I remain a bit less enthusiastic about Steven Matz who hasn't been the same since undergoing elbow surgery to relieve nerve irritation. Matz is just too inconsistent for me, but the team also added Michael Wacha, so the rotation is both capable and deep when everyone is healthy.

Last season was strewn with rather inexplicable disasters, and Edwin Diaz has to be listed on the casualty records. I watched him many times, and the stuff was there, but the results didn't follow. He and Syndergaard were both the epitome of frustration, and, like Syndergaard, I have to believe Diaz will rise above it all. There is depth here, too. Jeurys Familia has proven he can be a reliable closer (he lead the league with 51 saves in 2016) but he'll share the set-up innings with Dellin Betances, Seth Lugo (hopefully in the pen full-time where he is most effective), Robert Gsellman, Brad Brach and lefty Justin Wilson.

Recapping the Mets:

The arm to own: Noah Syndergaard, but this does require a leap of faith.

He'll likely be overpriced: Steven Matz

Best of the bullpen: Edwin Diaz

Philadelphia Phillies – Like most teams, the Phillies' rotation presents an intriguing scenario. The staff has some upside, but health concerns will play a big factor in the end result. They have a genuine ace. I have loved Aaron Nola since his college days. He is an exceptionally talented workhorse who thrives on competition, and those guys are always very valuable. He fits nicely at the top of a fantasy rotation. Now for the health questions. After years of frustrating injuries, newcomer Zack Wheeler now has logged nearly 400 innings over the past two years. Maybe his injury woes are a thing of the past? If so, he could take another step forward and solidify the two spot in their rotation. I've also been a fan of Jake Arrieta for quite some time, but he's been a disappointment of late. For the past couple seasons his peripherals have been trending in the wrong direction, and injuries have certainly played a part. He's not the power pitcher he was, still, I see flashes of the old Arrieta, but beware he is a significant risk on draft day. The lackluster group following the top three includes Vince Velasquez (you can count on him for a roller coaster ride) and Zach Eflin (pedestrian stuff). Both are No. 5 starters in MLB at best and unlikely to warrant a spot on any but the deepest fantasy rosters. Another thought might be Spencer Howard, who at least has considerable potential upside, but he's not ready yet and has also had some injury issues (shoulder). Finally, here is a no-promises, darkhorse flyer who has shown me enough to warrant late-round attention. Nick Pivetta has virtually fallen off the radar, but he has some dynamic stuff. The Phillies had him in the bullpen late last season, but he could potentially resurface if he gets everything back in sync.

Hector Neris is the presumptive favorite for save chances on Opening Day. Where it goes from there we may have to wait and see. Probably the best reliever on the staff is Seranthony Dominguez but he has had a tough time dealing with undefined roles when asked to pitch anytime the game was on the line from the middle innings to closing. I'm going to list him as a "super" reliever. They brought in David Robertson, presumably to handle the ninth inning, but he's out until at least midseason, and I think Robertson is better as a set-up guy anyway. There's a large cast auditioning for roles, and none of the options is a clear closing candidate. Lefty Jose Alvarez is also available but he has shown closing isn't his best role, while righties Drew Storen, Tommy Hunter, Anthony Swarzak, and other lefties Adam Morgan and Francisco Liriano may also get some innings. And, don't forget about Pivetta.

Recapping the Phillies:

The arm to own: Aaron Nola, but a discount price is unlikely.

He'll likely be overpriced: Vince Velasquez – do ya feel lucky?

Best of the bullpen: Hector Neris, but his hold on the closer's gig may be tenuous.

Washington Nationals – This division has more than its share of quality starting pitching, and the Nationals have arguably the best rotation trio in the East. They begin with co-aces in Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. When they're healthy and clicking, they don't get any better. Then, their No. 3 is southpaw Patrick Corbin. On many teams, Corbin would be the staff ace. Scherzer was an absolute beast (again) last year despite missing about six starts with a couple minor injuries, and Strasburg was just as overwhelming on his best days. And, Corbin chipped in with fairly comparable numbers. They combined for 732 strikeouts in just 583 innings, and tallied 43 wins – a total hampered by an inadequate bullpen that should be better this season. Compared to Scherzer, you might possibly be able to buy Strasburg or Corbin at a more reasonable price. Go for it. I'd love to own at least one. They'll be followed by some less spectacular arms. Anibal Sanchez has a history of being fragile and, probably because he attempts to pitch through these bangs and bruises, he tends to be very inconsistent. On good days he can be pretty good, but his bad days can hurt a lot. The favorite to claim the fifth spot is Joe Ross. He should be stronger this year in his second season back from Tommy John surgery. However, I think Austin Voth might contribute some competent innings if the shoulder issues he experienced last season are behind him.

The Nats bullpen was a mess most of last season, and no one paid a higher price for the mess than Sean Doolittle. When all is well, he has been a premier closer, but when the rest of the pen couldn't get anyone out, Doolittle was called upon too early and too often. Not surprisingly, the somewhat fragile lefty wore down, and his effectiveness waned. I expect better performance in front of him in 2020 and I'll give him a mulligan for last year. He has a track record of injuries. He's actually been fairly healthy, but that will always be a concern. If Doolittle does get banged up, or just needs a day off, the Nats have a very good alternative now in Daniel Hudson. I like him a lot, and I think he could be the primary closer on about a dozen teams. For now, he's in Washington, and if roster space allows, I suggest Doolittle owners attempt to add Hudson as an insurance policy. They signed experienced set-up man, Will Harris, and former Mariners' closer(s) lefty Roenis Elias and righty Hunter Strickland to bridge the gap to the ninth inning.

Recapping the Nationals:

The arm to own: Patrick Corbin might come at a slight discount.

He'll likely be overpriced: Anibal Sanchez

Best of the bullpen: Sean Doolittle, but Daniel Hudson is a prime handcuff.

Next week we'll look at the AL East.