Shane Greene

Greene far exceeded expectations over the first half of the 2019 season, managing to maintain the closer role for Detroit before being traded to the Braves at the trade deadline. He lost the closer job in a hurry and served mainly as a setup man with Atlanta. Prior to the trade, Greene was effective, converting 22 of his 25 save opportunities. With Atlanta, Greene had a 4.01 ERA and his strikeout rate dropped to 20.8%. The 31-year-old had a middling 92.7 mph fastball velocity, but his 11.5% swinging-strike rate was the second-best mark of his career and his 1.01 WHIP shows Greene's ability to limit baserunners. However, given his second-half struggles, and with the Braves signing Will Smith and bringing back Chris Martin, it's safe to wonder whether Greene will open 2020 any higher than fifth in the Braves' bullpen hierarchy. His closing days may be over.

Greene outperformed his peripherals in 2017 and promptly paid back the baseball gods in 2018. He did convert 32 saves, but remained the Tigers' closer only by default. His 5.12 ERA was boosted by a 1.71 HR/9. He allowed five homers in September and posted a completely uninspiring swinging-strike rate for a closer (8.4%). Righty batters tormented him more often in 2018 (.352 wOBA), piling on his ongoing difficulties versus LHB (2.77 K/BB). To his credit Greene did improve his walk rate by nearly two free passes per nine, and his 69.7% left-on-base rate is ripe for a positive correction. Assuming he starts 2019 as the closer, he'll be looking over his shoulder at Joe Jimenez, who filled in for some save opps last year but wore down late. If Greene pitches his way out of the ninth or is traded by the rebuilding Tigers, his fantasy utility would evaporate instantly, as he doesn't have the skill set to be worthwhile if he isn't seeing saves.

After the May demotion of Francisco Rodriguez and trade-deadline departure of Justin Wilson, Greene seized the Tigers’ closer role, going 9-for-10 in save opportunities from Aug. 1 to the end of the season while dazzling with a 2.49 ERA and 23 strikeouts in 21.2 frames. The converted starter enjoyed the velocity bump that comes with his role change, with his signature sinker gaining nearly one mph in 2017. On paper, Greene’s 9.7 K/9 looks to fit in with the typical closer picture, but it stems more from the sequencing of his four- or five-pitch makeup than it does dominance. His swinging-strike rate was only 8.6 percent. Though Green works quickly, he’s not overly efficient; he moved ahead 0-1 on just 59.4 percent of plate appearances. Walks are an issue, and the right-hander also benefited from a whopping 84.2 percent left-on-base rate. He's a risk to lose the job at some point in 2018.

Greene was a glaring case of the run prevention not matching his peripheral stats in 2016, as his combination of a K-per-inning with a humble walk rate and exceptionally low rate of homers allowed resulted in an inflated ERA of 5.82 despite a 3.13 FIP on the season. The right-hander started a trio of games in the first month of the season, but after an injury cost Greene a month, he was jettisoned to the bullpen upon his return. Whether pitching in the rotation or out of the bullpen, however, it was the same story for Greene, who was tagged for runs in either role despite solid peripheral stats. His value for 2017 and beyond likely hinges on his role, as the hard-throwing right-hander has an outside shot at some saves if he stays in the bullpen and might be out of chances to prove that he can stick in a rotation.

Greene looked like a Cy Young candidate in his first three starts — he went 3-0 with a minuscule 0.39 ERA. But then the wheels fell off the proverbial bus and he fell apart, literally and figuratively. He couldn't find the strike zone and when he did, batters just teed off on him to the tune of 20 earned runs in his next three starts (11 innings). He then went on and off the disabled list because he just couldn't feel the ring and pinky fingers on his throwing hand. He was finally diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome and went under the knife to eliminate a blood clot in August. That surgery is highly effective, so Greene could be ready to roll by spring training. If so, his slider/sinker combo could make him a solid mid-rotation hurler who is a groundball machine. Wait to invest until he's been on the mound and proves the tingling in those digits is gone for good.

Greene wasn’t even in the magazine last year and it’s hardly our fault as he wasn’t anything close to a prospect from either a scouting or numbers standpoint. He put up unimpressive numbers as someone who was too old or at the exact right age for his level. His start to 2014 was no different as he had a 4.61 ERA in Triple-A prior to his callup. The rash of injuries that ravaged the Yankees’ rotation forced Greene into the role in early July and he hit the ground running with a 3.09 ERA through his first 55 innings with 54 strikeouts and a 3.2 K/BB ratio. A couple of six-run shellackings book-ended his September and pushed his final mark up to 3.78, but even while struggling he still fanned 27 in 23 innings. The strikeouts were the biggest surprise in his breakout and they give him some staying power going forward. If he can refine his changeup and cut into his 100-point platoon split, Greene can be a steady all-formats option.