Robert Gsellman

The full-time move to the bullpen has served Gsellman's strikeout rate well as he has improved his rate each of the past two seasons from what he did as a starter. The issue is that Gsellman's fantasy value has suffered because his workload offers him few decisions and no saves, so we're left with a reliever with a good strikeout rate and absolutely nothing else. The ratios are subpar, which offsets any strikeout gains. Relievers with 60-70 strikeouts and bad ratios who work in middle relief are plentiful in free-agent piles for a reason. That said, the expected stats give us some hope here. Gsellman is tough to square up and limits hard contact, so he is at least worth a thought in the reserve rounds in NL-only leagues to see if his role changes. His season ended with a lat injury in mid-August, so the overall numbers are held down a bit enough for him to fly under the radar on draft day outside the NYC market.

Deeming Gsellman's conversion to the bullpen successful is a matter of perspective. Posting 16 holds and 13 saves wasn't bad, but he also blew six saves. Gsellman's surface stats and peripherals were suspect, especially for a reliever. As is usually the case when a former starter comes out of the bullpen, Gsellman added velocity, fueling the expected boost in strikeouts, albeit to a still-pedestrian 20.3%. Not only did he fail to improve his walk rate, it rose to 8.1%, a level too high for someone lacking better strikeout skills. Gsellman stuck with his four-pitch mix instead of paring down and focusing on just a couple, headed by a 95-mph four-seamer. Sometimes it takes a converted starter a couple years to figure things out as a reliever. Maybe this is the case with Gsellman. Unfortunately for his 2019 fantasy utility, Gsellman no longer has a real shot at saves after the Mets acquired Edwin Diaz from Seattle.

A popular sleeper candidate heading into last season, Gsellman flopped in a major way, but it's too early to write the 24-year-old off. His strikeout rate fell by more than two per nine from his stellar debut sample in 2016, as he was far too hittable even when he put the ball out of the strike zone (76.0 percent O-Contact%). Although he maintained an above-average groundball rate, Gsellman gave something back in that department, with more balls being elevated and put over the fences. The velocity at which he throws his slider is a bit troubling given the torque on the arm, and he did lose some fastball velocity year-over-year, but as long as Gsellman is healthy, he should be in the mix for starts in New York. Gsellman deserves some consideration as an endgame flier in deep formats, but don't be stubborn and hold onto him if he gets off to a similarly poor start.

Gsellman began 2016 at Double-A Binghamton where a 2.71 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 11 starts earned a promotion to Triple-A Las Vegas. The young righty was sporting a 5.73 ERA and 1.49 WHIP when he was summoned by the Mets on Aug. 23, but much of those struggles can be explained away by the harsh pitching conditions of the PCL. After an impressive appearance out of the bullpen the day of his callup, Gsellman was inserted into the rotation, posting a tidy 2.42 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, starting seven games. Even more impressive was a 22.7 percent strikeout rate, surpassing anything he'd done on the farm. This is not the first time an unsung Mets pitching prospect has shown up in the majors with added fastball velocity (93.6 mph) and a plus-plus slider (think Jacob deGrom). Given the injury concerns surrounding the Mets' rotation, Gsellman could find his way to close to a full season's workload, and the draft day price tag offers room to profit.