Bernie on the Scene: National League Injury Update

When we prepare for fantasy drafts, it's important to know the health status of recently injured, draft-able players. In the next two articles, I will look at players who were injured at some point either during the past short season or just before. First up will be the National League, which will be followed next week by an analysis of American League players. Let me know in the comments section of any injured player you wish to have updated.

Later in the article I write about "waiting mode." It's an important concept for me, and one I will share with you.

National League Injuries

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Cardinals – elbow bone chips

I was fortunate to watch almost every game Paul Goldschmidt played with the Diamondbacks. As Goldschmidt drifted toward his free agent year, his elbow began to bark. Badly. But he never missed many games, choosing to play through the pain.

Without a doubt, Goldy's swing was negatively impacted with Arizona. Even with limitations, Goldschmidt was an All-Star in 2018, his last season playing in the desert.

His elbow issue followed him to St. Louis, but he once again played through the pain. He did have a mediocre 2019 season, hitting .260/346/.476/.821. That was totally unlike Goldschmidt, but blame can be placed partially on a swing that was impacted by a bum elbow.

Finally, after the Cardinals were no longer viable for a postseason appearance, Goldschmidt left the lineup. He did, however, play 58 of the 60 games on the Cardinals schedule. In late October, Goldschmidt had surgery to remove a bone spur from his right elbow. 

Goldschmidt should be ready for spring training and should enjoy a pain free season for the first time in years.

Conclusion: Upgrade Goldschmidt on your first-base rankings. He still has that powerful bat, but his swing should be greatly improved.

Rhys Hoskins, 1B/OF, Phillies – strained elbow)

Rhys Hoskins earned a reputation as a home run threat as a rookie with the Phillies in his first full 2018 season. He hit 34 homers and drove in 96 runs that year.

The next season saw much more patience at the plate from Hoskins, and he walked an incredible 116 times. He still hit 29 homers, but he didn't seem to get the "dangerous hitter" tag reserved for some in fantasy.

In the short 2020 season, Hoskins played only 41 games. In September he attempted to field a grounder at first base and his elbow collided with the runner. He stayed in the game, but was placed on the injured list two days later.

Hoskins ended up having Tommy John surgery in October to repair his left, non-throwing elbow. The recovery time is 4-6 months for a non-pitcher. However, we must remember that Didi Gregorius had the same procedure and was out eight months.

Hoskins is in his prime. He turns 28 in March, when the new season begins.

Conclusion: We can look for Hoskins back at some point in late May or June. However, he may not be the same until he gets plenty of reps at the plate. I will be cautious with him.

Brandon Belt, 1B/OF, Giants  –  heel surgery

Left-handed hitting Brandon Belt will be 33 when the 2021 season begins. Belt played 51 shortened-season games for the Giants and hit .309/.425/.591/.1.015. He is likely in the team's plans, as he has a contract that pays him $17M next season.

In mid-October, Belt had surgery to remove a bone spur from his right heel. He has been undergoing physical therapy and rehab and should be ready at the beginning of spring training. 

If, in fact, his heel pain impacted his swing and the amount of torque and pressure he could put on the trunk of his body and swing mechanics, Belt should feel incredible relief at the plate.

Conclusion:  Belt will be on the board late in drafts. His surgery could help propel him to improved power.

Zack Wheeler, RHP, Phillies  – fingernail

As if fantasy managers haven't been waiting long enough for Zack Wheeler to finally be completely healthy and not have a season interrupted due to injury, he landed on the injured list once again in 2020.

In September 2020, Wheeler hurt his fingernail while putting on his pants. The middle nail on his pitching hand got caught in his belt buckle. In October, he had to go to a specialist to save the nail.

Wheeler is a quality starter now in his age-30 year. But the Phillies are counting on him for big things. I'm not as sold on him as others, but he should not be impacted by his fingernail issue.

Conclusion: Wheeler will be fine for the start of spring training. We should roster him as usual.

Robert Gsellman, RHP, Mets  – fractured ribs

Who knows what moves the Mets will make under new owner Steve Cohen? Is righty Robert Gsellman still in his team's plans? Much depends upon his injury status. He enters his last year of arbitration this winter, and that could decide his fate with the Mets. He will carry $1.3M into arbitration negotiations. Maybe the Mets sign him to a long-term deal rather than let him go to free agency.

In September, Gsellman had been buckling over in pain on the mound. He assumed he had a strained oblique, a common injury for a pitcher. It turns out he had a fractured rib. His season was over.

Once seen as a reliever, Gsellman had been used in the rotation by the Mets before the injury. In early November he was activated from the 60-day injury list andshould be ready to go for spring training.

Conclusion: It is tough to predict what the Mets will do with Gsellman if he proves he is strong and healthy.  Much depends upon roster improvement progress they do or don't make this winter. But as is usually the case with Gsellman, be careful of expectations.

Mike Soroka, RHP, Braves  – torn Achilles)

Few pitchers were as promising as Mike Soroka when the 2020 short season began.

Everything changed when Soroka tore his right Achilles tendon and underwent successful surgery in August. Soroka's surgery usually carries a 6-8 month recovery time. But all indications are that Soroka will be able to throw by spring training. That means he could be available by Opening Day.

The Braves rotation was clearly not the same without Soroka. They made the best with what they had, and pitchers like Max Fried and Ian Anderson really stepped up. 

The addition of starter Charlie Morton really helps add another solid arm to the rotation, but getting back Soroka could make the Braves starting pitching elite.

Conclusion: I would take any risk during drafts that could lead to a huge reward for having Soroka on my fantasy team. I believe in him, and I think he'll pitch pain free.

Dinelson Lamet, RHP, Padres  – right biceps

This one troubles me. Dinelson Lamet was a dominating young pitcher for the Padres, but he clearly didn't look himself on the mound in the short season.

Then we learned he had a right biceps injury.

Lamet made 12 starts for the Padres in 2020. He threw 59 innings and finished with a 2.09 ERA and 0.855 WHIP.  He yielded five homers. He walked 20 and struck out 93. Good numbers.

But as a scout, right biceps injuries raise a caution flag for me. As in — what's next? 

One of my instructors in Scout School taught me to look for a pitcher swinging his arm, walking around the mound a lot or taking extra time as signs that not everything is all right with his shoulder, elbow or forearm. Then it gets inside his head. The instructor cautioned that a pitcher then is in "waiting mode." Waiting mode means trouble ahead, as in — when will it snap, pop or crackle?  I can spot waiting mode. I look for it. That's how I was taught. It works for me. I call it my "caution light."

At 6-foot-3, 228, Lamet has a solid frame. He's 28 and should be in his prime.

Maybe I'm too cautious, but I see trouble ahead. In my scout blood, I guess. You can bet I'll look to see if he's in waiting mode.

Conclusion: I am going to let the other guy pick up Dinelson Lamet unless — and that's a big word here — unless I see he is throwing nice and easy in spring training. And even then, I will proceed with caution. But don't let me scare you off him. He's an outstanding pitcher. But.

Corbin Martin, RHP, Diamondbacks  – Tommy John

Not all fantasy managers are aware that Corbin Martin came to Arizona in the July 2019 trade with the Astros for Zack Greinke. Martin was an important component of the deal.

Martin was a second-round pick  by Houston in the 2017 draft out of Texas A&M. He turns 25 in December and is entering some prime pitching years.

Martin had Tommy John surgery in July 2019. That's the same month of his trade. The Diamondbacks knew of his elbow condition and his surgery at the time of the deal. In fact, his surgery occurred a month before the trade.

The Diamondbacks had tried to pry Martin from the Astros in a trade for Paul Goldschmidt. Houston liked Martin enough to reject any deal that included Martin. Then, a year later, the Astros traded him to Arizona following his Tommy John surgery.

Trading for an injured player meant somebody with Arizona really, really likes Martin. I get it. He's got a complete quality resume. 

As Martin was rehabilitating from surgery he suffered an oblique strain, setting him back. Now the club hopes he will be up and pitching by spring training.

Prior to surgery, Martin threw a mid-90s fastball with late life. He also had a changeup, slider and curve as solid secondary pitches. There was no doubt the Diamondbacks traded for him to use him as a quality pitcher in their rotation. One would guess that plan is still active.

Conclusion: Martin is the type of pitcher who might not be highly targeted by fantasy managers. As a result, he may fall enough for us to grab him in later rounds. If he shows he's healthy, he does have promise. But remember — he pitches in a very hitter friendly park without much offensive run support.

Heading Home

Given the potential a vaccine arrives sooner than expected, it is now likely spring training will begin on time. 

My sources have told me that professional sports players will be treated as "essential personnel" and may be getting the vaccine sooner than the general public.

One may choose to agree or disagree with that assessment of their value. However, a case may be made that the general population is much better off with healthy, vibrant professional sports to watch.

One may choose to state that professional athletes are woefully less important than doctors, nurses, police, fire, etc. Or how about the people that work in grocery stores and on and on.

There may be public debate about the order in which a vaccine is distributed, but it won't better. We won't be voting on the pecking order. That will be decided in closed rooms as early as next week.

Stay safe out there. Don't do something foolish for a moment of fun that could cost you and those you love and care about a potentially deadly illness.

Thanks for following me on Twitter @BerniePleskoff and for reading my baseball articles at forbes.com. Articles like this.