Mound Musings: A Look at Pitching in the NL Central

National League Central

Chicago Cubs – Like some others in the division, the Cubs will enter 2021 with a thinner pitching staff than they fielded in 2020. They added Jake Arrieta, and veteran Zach Davies, but subtracted Yu Darvish and Jon Lester. I think Arrieta could be a small upgrade over Lester, but losing a true ace like Darvish is catastrophic. That leaves the top spot to the steady Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks is actually pretty reliable, but soft-tossers like him can be vulnerable because they don't have the raw stuff to overcome mistakes or off days. If he gets just slightly out of sync, things can get ugly, but he has proven he can spot his pitches pretty consistently, so he is generally on top of his game. Arrieta takes the two slot and can be useful when healthy and in sync. Davies, similar to Hendricks with pretty pedestrian stuff, but with lesser command, will be the No. 3. The first three aren't bad, but I think my biggest concern would again be the last couple rotation slots. Alec Mills is the likely fourth starter (not much upside) while the final spot will go to Trevor Williams and/or Adbert Alzolay – neither of whom generate much optimism. Their top pitching prospect, lefty Brailyn Marquez, has a huge arm, but he doesn't yet have the repertoire or command to contribute as a starter.

This is again a major area of concern in my eyes. In June 2019, the Cubs spent a lot of money signing premier closer, Craig Kimbrel. Trouble is, he hasn't looked much like a closer, let alone, premier. He has maintained good velocity, but no command. Maybe he'll be back, but I'll have to see it before I jump on board. So who's his caddy? Good question. Rowan Wick could be a possibility, but he is sidelined with an intercostal strain and is doubtful for the beginning of the season. Maybe Brandon Workman, who did some closing Boston, but he's better suited for a set-up role. Basically, someone – hopefully Kimbrel – has to step up, because if Kimbrel falters, the shockwaves will resound throughout the bullpen.

Recapping the Cubs:

The arm to roster: Kyle Hendricks is their best bet, but he'll likely be full price.

He'll likely be overpriced: Expect regression from Zach Davies from last season.

Best of the bullpen: I'm steering clear. Craig Kimbrel will have to prove himself to me.

Cincinnati Reds – The Cubs lost Darvish, and the Reds kept pace, losing their top guy, Trevor Bauer, when the free-agent signed with Dodgers this winter. However, the Reds rotation may be a bit deeper, so while there is no one to replace Bauer, they may have an easier time plugging the hole. The Reds appear to be contenders in a rather lackluster division. It all starts with Luis Castillo who has been a very popular target the past couple years. He has always had a big arm, and considerable potential, so while his fastball command can be spotty and his breaking pitches aren't always consistent, his change-up is so good he has earned the honor of being a true top-of-the-rotation starter. The rest of the rotation is filled with pitchers who display both positives and negatives, but if the scales tip to the positive side, Cincinnati is going to be a force. Sonny Gray was banged up and had a couple of rough starts late last season that tarnished his numbers, but when he is healthy and has everything working, he's a legitimate No. 2. He might even be slightly undervalued on draft day. Journeyman lefty Wade Miley, primarily is an innings eater, and Tyler Mahle, who can throw strikes with four pitches but possesses just average stuff, will man the three and four spots. Mahle is a bit interesting because he tends to get the most out of his repertoire. It's the five spot that is still potentially on the table. Tejay Antone opened some eyes last year with a big jump in velocity, but his command is shaky, and his peripherals last year come from a small sample size (just 35 innings). He's probably the favorite for the fifth spot over fireballer (and heavy hitter) Michael Lorenzen. Lorenzen is better suited to long relief and maybe an occasional spot start where he won't be overexposed. Other names to watch would be southpaw Nick Lodolo and the injury-riddled Hunter Greene. Both are good prospects, but lacking game action innings in 2020 means neither figures to see the major leagues this season unless forced into it because of a need for fresh arms.

The Reds' bullpen lost closer Raisel Iglesias, leaving things unsettled entering 2021. Amir Garrett is probably the guy I like best on this staff, and he could be pitching in the ninth inning this year. However, they recently signed Sean Doolittle, who, like Garrett, is a lefty. Doolittle has a history of injuries, but if healthy, he has also had success closing games. This is actually a fairly deep pen. The aforementioned Lorenzen (if he's not starting) and the generally reliable Lucas Sims will serve as key set-up guys.

Recapping the Reds:

The arm to roster: Sonny Gray could be a nice price on draft day. He's a nice buy.

He'll likely be overpriced: Wade Miley just doesn't offer much upside.

Best of the bullpen: I like Amir Garrett, but Sean Doolittle is a proven closer.

Milwaukee Brewers – The beat goes on in Milwaukee where the top of the rotation looks pretty solid, but there are question marks at the back. In some ways, the jury is still out on their arms, with one notable exception. Brandon Woodruff has displayed considerable upside with his well-developed repertoire, and he took it to the next level with steadily improving command. Which Corbin Burnes will we see? He showed a lot of promise in 2019, then flopped when given a regular turn. Last season, he was exemplary. I touted him heavily when he first came up, and it looks like he is ready to fully capitalize on his talent. Next up is Josh Lindblom. After four nondescript years in MLB, he spent five seasons in Korea where he remade himself and now features a very diverse selection of decent pitches. He had mixed results in 2020, but I still think his repertoire will translate pretty well, potentially making him worthy of a modest draft day investment. Brett Anderson has finally enjoyed a couple of relatively injury-free seasons, but he's not a strikeout pitcher and will always be a health risk, so don't get carried away on draft day. Adrian Houser performed pretty well after moving into the rotation in mid-2019, but he was routinely hammered last year. I think he also has some upside, however, his secondary stuff isn't very refined, so I'm staying away until he gets more consistent. The other consideration is likely Eric Lauer who was battered in 11 2020 innings. He's strictly back-of-the-rotation, but he's not as bad as he looked last year. He almost assuredly get another chance at some point on 2021, Their best pitching prospect, Antoine Kelly, looks promising, but needs to gain pro experience.

Two names come to mind when discussing the Brewers' bullpen. Southpaw Josh Hader has been superman and will likely again be their primary closer, and Devin Williams, who has closer tools but will reprise his role as the premier stopper whenever needed prior to the ninth inning. Justin Topa, Brent Suter and Freddy Peralta will probably again share earlier inning set-up duties, but Hader and Williams well get all the high-leverage work they can handle.

Recapping the Brewers:

The arm to roster: Corbin Burnes will only get more expensive in future seasons.

He'll likely be overpriced: Brett Anderson helps the Brewers more than a fantasy team.

Best of the bullpen: Josh Hader, but buy Devin Williams, too, just in case.

Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates had just one top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, Jameson Taillon, who has been a favorite of mine since he turned pro, but he now wears Yankee pinstripes. The Pirates have to hope Mitch Keller can eventually find the strike zone more often if they want an arm with potential. Keller has a big arm and impressive minor league credentials, but his performance with the big club has been very shaky due to frequent lapses in command. I'm still inclined to give him a time to get it all together, but, until he does, he's very risky. Now we delve into very fringy guys like Steven Brault, (slight edge) and Chad Kuhl, who likely will be Nos. 2 and 3 on this staff, but are actually fifth starters or even swingmen. They offer little value in any but the deepest leagues. And, it gets worse. The back of the rotation will comprise guys like Tyler Anderson, JT Brubaker and/or Cody Ponce. They all have at least two things in common. They have very limited, if any, upside, and none of them will be on any of my fantasy rosters. They do have one fairly interesting rotation prospect in the system. Quinn Priester has potential, but he is probably two or more years away.

The Pirates' bullpen resembles the starting rotation in many ways – nobody really stands out. I suppose Richard Rodriguez will again be first in line for saves. He's not bad, but he's better suited to a set-up role. They also have a decent but certainly unspectacular support group including lefty Chasen Shreve, Michael Feliz and Kyle Crick (when they throw strikes). Not much to see here, move on. A final consideration would be a serious dark horse. Tahnaj Thomas caught my eye a couple years ago. He has a lively high 90s fastball and a good slider. They are trying to develop him as a starter, but if he can't find a steady off-speed pitch, he just might have ninth-inning stuff right now.

Recapping the Pirates:

The arm to roster: I like Mitch Keller but he has to occasionally throw strikes

He'll likely be overpriced: To be honest, I'll pass on all the rest. Just too risky.

Best of the bullpen: I'll stash Tahnaj Thomas and hope for a bullpen assignment.

St. Louis Cardinals – We'll wrap up our analysis of the NL Central with a look at my pick to win the division. The team didn't add pitching this winter, but they didn't lose a lot either, although Dakota Hudson will miss 2021 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Note though, the addition of Nolan Arenado will help the pitchers with both more offense and better defense. Let's start with Jack Flaherty. His raw stuff is already dominating, and you can throw out his 2020 numbers. A COVID outbreak really fouled up their schedule where Flaherty went 26 days between starts at one point, and his high ERA was the product of one bad start. Bottom line, he's an ace, and I think the best is still to come. I think most likely No. 2 will be South Korean import Kwang Hyun Kim. He made seven starts last year and allowed more than one earned run in just one of them. He's not a big strikeout guy, but he throws quality strikes, and I'll take that. Now, let's check in on two quality arms that define that winning approach. Miles Mikolas showed some true tenacity after returning from Japan in 2018. He suffered some nagging injuries and some bad luck in 2019, but his strikeout rate was inching up, and I expected a bounce back season in 2020 before he was sidelined all year with with a flexor tendon injury that eventually required surgery. The graybeard of the staff who will turn 40 in August is Adam Wainwright. He doesn't have the tools he once had, but he is a master of the arts – both pitching and winning – and he is making all the right adjustments, so don't overlook him. The five spot should be the property of the versatile Carlos Martinez who previously did an admirable job as their interim closer but has consistently stated he wants to start. Daniel Ponce de Leon will also probably see occasional starts given the potential health concerns and likely innings limitations of some of the primary rotation arms. He's an adequate No. 6, and I haven't even mentioned Alex Reyes – still a great arm – but he again enters the season with a somewhat vague role. He could start or pitch in relief as needed, which is just another asset on this staff.

I don't think the question is who will close for the Cardinals long term. I'm reasonably certain that gig will belong to Jordan Hicks, but he is still working his way back from Tommy John surgery and may not be ready for a full workload right out of the gate. So who closes until then? The list of options is long and pretty distinguished. Maybe Andrew Miller and Giovanny Gallegos will again share the duties for the interim. And, there's also a capable array of support arms including Genesis Cabrera, John Gant and Ryan Helsley. This is a very deep bullpen.

Recapping the Cardinals:

The arm to roster: Jack Flaherty certainly won't be cheap, but he'll be worth it.

He'll likely be overpriced: Carlos Martinez didn't look sharp at all in 2020.

Best of the bullpen: I am still convinced Jordan Hicks is the guy to have.

Next week we'll look at the AL Central.