This article is part of our Mound Musings series.
Last week we looked at the NL East and for the next five weeks, I'll continue to throw some names out there for your consideration, covering one division each week. When the dust settles, we should be looking at Opening Day and hopefully have a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2020 season. Let's get to it and look at the:
American League East
Baltimore Orioles – The O's are probably the best bet to lose 100-plus games this season – they won just 54 last year – and I'll admit, I am struggling to find positives to mention. Arguably their pitcher with the most potential, Dylan Bundy, is gone, leaving an already bare cupboard virtually empty. Their "ace" heading into 2020 is probably lefty John Means who surprised everyone with a modestly successful run last year. But, I wouldn't count on an encore. His stuff just isn't that good. If I was forced to own a Baltimore starter, it would probably be Alex Cobb. At least he has shown some upside in the past, but health issues have made him unreliable (he threw just 12 innings last year), and given the weak team that plays behind him, he's not recommended. The rest of the rotation likely will be filled with long relievers like Wade LeBlanc, and pitchers who are better suited to Triple-A competition like Asher Wojciechowski, David Hess and Kohl Stewart to name a few. The O's did add Brandon Bailey in the Rule
Last week we looked at the NL East and for the next five weeks, I'll continue to throw some names out there for your consideration, covering one division each week. When the dust settles, we should be looking at Opening Day and hopefully have a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2020 season. Let's get to it and look at the:
American League East
Baltimore Orioles – The O's are probably the best bet to lose 100-plus games this season – they won just 54 last year – and I'll admit, I am struggling to find positives to mention. Arguably their pitcher with the most potential, Dylan Bundy, is gone, leaving an already bare cupboard virtually empty. Their "ace" heading into 2020 is probably lefty John Means who surprised everyone with a modestly successful run last year. But, I wouldn't count on an encore. His stuff just isn't that good. If I was forced to own a Baltimore starter, it would probably be Alex Cobb. At least he has shown some upside in the past, but health issues have made him unreliable (he threw just 12 innings last year), and given the weak team that plays behind him, he's not recommended. The rest of the rotation likely will be filled with long relievers like Wade LeBlanc, and pitchers who are better suited to Triple-A competition like Asher Wojciechowski, David Hess and Kohl Stewart to name a few. The O's did add Brandon Bailey in the Rule 5 draft, so he could get a look, too, but his ceiling is pretty low. These guys all have two things in common. First, they likely will all see time in the rotation this year, and, secondly, none of them should be pitching for a fantasy team. The O's do have a couple decent pitching prospects in Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall, but they are both probably at least a year or more away, so there's no real light at the end of the tunnel.
With that rotation, the bullpen figures to get a lot of work, and I suppose that's a slight positive. They won't lose 162 games (I don't think), so there could be an occasional save chance. Mychal Givens likely will see the lion's share and he's reasonably competent, albeit with inconsistent command and some vulnerability to lefties. It looks like southpaw Paul Fry, and righties Shawn Armstrong and Miguel Castro will be his backups should he need a day off (or get dealt), but my draft day advice? Refill the coffee cup when an O's pitcher comes up.
Recapping the Orioles:
The arm to own: Pass
He'll likely be overpriced: John Means
Best of the bullpen: Mychal Givens
Boston Red Sox – The Red Sox are hoping a huge "Sale" this summer will be their ticket to October baseball. Prior to last year, there were very few pitchers I would have preferred owning over Chris Sale. I have loved the guy since he arrived in the majors, but an injury derailed his season, and he never really got everything back in sync. That certainly raises red flags, but reports are the injury is behind him, and I am hoping he might come at a small discount this spring. With David Price and Rick Porcello gone, Sale's contribution becomes even more crucial. An interesting trio figures to slot in behind their ace. Eduardo Rodriguez and Nathan Eovaldi are joined by newcomer lefty Martin Perez. Rodriquez has won 32 games over the past two years, but his peripherals have been pretty pedestrian, and the wins are aided by the Boston bats, while Perez has yet to live up to expectations and has seen his stock drop over the past couple seasons. Eovaldi, however, is intriguing. I think he's a guy I might even pursue if the price is right. He's had a pair of Tommy John surgeries and missed two months in 2019 following minor elbow surgery. He has a very live arm but desperately needs better off-speed stuff and extended good health. Hector Velazquez should get the nod for the fifth starter spot, but I typically see him as being better equipped to function as a swingman rather than a fulltime starter. The best alternative – and not a great one – is probably Ryan Weber.
Brandon Workman figures to open the year as the primary closer after working his way into the ninth inning gig late last season. He's probably better suited to a more versatile role and he needs to throw more strikes, but there aren't really any strong alternatives. Right now, I would likely list Matt Barnes as the top set-up guy, with Heath Hembree, Marcus Walden and 32-year-old, minor league journeyman Ryan Brasier as the other candidates. Simply stated, this is a bullpen with a lot of question marks.
Recapping the Red Sox:
The arm to own: Chris Sale, with crossed fingers he is healthy.
He'll likely be overpriced: Eduardo Rodriguez
Best of the bullpen: Brandon Workman, but the endorsement is lukewarm.
New York Yankees – The rich often get richer, and so it seems to be with the 2020 Yankees. Already featuring a very deep and talented corps of starters, they then signed Gerrit Cole to the biggest contract ever awarded to a pitcher. Ladies and gentlemen, we have a new No. 1 in the Bronx. Their former No. 1, Luis Severino now becomes a No. 2 with ace stuff. The only concern here is health and potential workload restrictions (he pitched just 12 innings with shoulder and lat injuries last year). There are more aces in this deck, but James Paxton will miss the first couple months following back surgery. If he comes back at 100 percent, he can join Cole and Severino in the penthouse suite. I think he could be worth an investment betting that will happen. Yankee Stadium remains a hitter's heaven, and nobody knows that better than righty Masahiro Tanaka. He struggles to keep the ball in the yard, but word is he will enter the season at full strength, which could result in better numbers. The Yankees have already said J.A. Happ will serve as their fifth starter, and that fits him nicely. At age 37, shorter (think five innings or so) and extra rest on occasion, should help keep him fresh. Even with Paxton out and Domingo German, another solid starter, serving a suspension until early June, the Yankees have things covered with Jordan Montgomery. He could be a viable four or five for most teams, but when at full strength, the team may not have a rotation spot available. The other candidates for spot starts include Jonathan Loaisiga and possibly young Michael King, but they need a clear path to innings.
The Yankees also have one of the most talented and deepest bullpens in baseball. Aroldis Chapman will again garner the majority of the saves, but his health is always a concern these days. If he can't answer the bell, set-up men Adam Ottavino and/or lefty Zack Britton likely would share endgame duties. But, depth is plentiful. They also have Tommy Kahnle with some closing experience, plus the very capable Luis Cessa and Chad Green. I do think Britton is the best bet as an insurance policy for Chapman. He was a top-tier closer in Baltimore not all that long ago.
Recapping the Yankees:
The arm to own: James Paxton might be a good value stash.
He'll likely be overpriced: Luis Severino could be a bit risky for the price.
Best of the bullpen: Aroldis Chapman, but Zack Britton is the insurance policy.
Tampa Bay Rays – Some organizations become known for consistently developing young pitchers, and the Rays fall into that category. Most recently, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow have made a big splash. Both were considered solid prospects with their previous teams but weren't making a lot of progress before coming to Tampa Bay. Snell won a Cy Young in 2018 before experiencing some bad luck and undergoing minor elbow surgery last year. He'll be back to full strength this season. Glasnow broke out last year, and, while he won't match his 2019 peripherals, he is the real deal. The Rays also added veteran Charlie Morton, who didn't realize his best stuff until a couple years ago, but has been outstanding of late. That's a very competent top three. And, the next Ray of sunshine could be on the horizon. P/DH Brendan McKay has similar high-end skills, and while his initial results weren't that good, he is loaded with fantasy upside and could be a great value on draft day. Others under consideration for a starting job include former "opener" Ryan Yarbrough and Yonny Chirinos, but while I won't completely write off any pitcher with this club, I do think they are a bit less appealing. Not too surprisingly, there are a couple others to monitor. I think Trevor Richards could eventually claim a spot but he'll need to pass some others on the food chain. I also like Anthony Banda as a very deep sleeper, and Brent Honeywell shouldn't be forgotten even though he has missed two full seasons due to injuries.
I think I see the Rays' bullpen becoming more settled this season. Emilio Pagan is gone, which should open the door for Nick Anderson. He'll need to produce results, obviously, but he has the best closer tools in their pen. He should be supported by lefties Jose Alvarado and Colin Poche, while righties Chaz Roe and Diego Castillo will be matchup candidates. All are possibilities to end games should Anderson falter.
Recapping the Rays:
The arm to own: Blake Snell, but Brendan McKay could be the next breakout.
He'll likely be overpriced: Yonny Chirinos just doesn't fit the Rays' mold.
Best of the bullpen: Nick Anderson should have a clearer path to saves.
Toronto Blue Jays – The Blue Jays have rebuilt their starting rotation over the past couple years, but the jury is still out on whether that's a good thing. Interestingly, the new arms aren't really new. Rather they are veterans, most in the 30 to 33 age range, with varying resumes. Certainly at the top of the list is southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu who was signed in the offseason. He led MLB in ERA last year (2.32) and as long as he stays healthy, the wily veteran figures to be the leader of the staff. Performance expectations probably decline after Ryu. Tanner Roark and Chase Anderson both have enjoyed moments in the sun, but neither is likely to qualify as a top-of-the-rotation mainstay. At a decent price, they could fill in at the back of a fantasy rotation. Next up is the oft-injured Matt Shoemaker. He, too, has occasionally generated some fantasy buzz but he has never pitched more than 160 innings in a season and hasn't tossed more than 77 in a year since 2016. The fifth spot probably comes down to soft-tosser Shun Yamaguchi, who experienced success the past couple of seasons in Japan, and Trent Thornton and Anthony Kay (the latter pair are the only Jays' pitchers under age 30 of those mentioned so far). Yamaguchi would be my pick between those three and might be a decent low-cost flyer for fantasy owners. Kay does have some upside, but I'm not convinced he is ready. This could all change quickly if Ryan Borucki proves his elbow issues are behind him. Borucki caught my eye in 2018 and he could be a useful piece at the back of your rotation, but he's currently shut down with his balky elbow, so you need to monitor his health. Now I'll toss one more name into the mix. Nate Pearson is unlikely to land in Toronto on Opening Day, but when he does arrive, you want to own him, especially in keeper/dynasty leagues. He's a genuine blue-chipper.
Things appear fairly settled in the Toronto bullpen heading into the season. Ken Giles is the closer, and there simply isn't much competition for the gig this season. Giles can sometimes make things interesting, but, like most quality end-gamers, he tends to become more focused the more critical the scenario. Anthony Bass might be the first up if Giles needs a day off, but lefty Thomas Pannone, and righties Sam Gaviglio and Jordan Romano could jump into the mix depending on the matchups.
Recapping the Blue Jays:
The arm to own: Nate Pearson (eventually) but maybe Shun Yamaguchi right now.
He'll likely be overpriced: Matt Shoemaker is too injury-prone and inconsistent.
Best of the bullpen: Ken Giles is the guy.
Next week we'll look at the NL Central.
