Farm Futures: Trade Deadline Prospect Mailbag

In case you missed it, I completed a full update to the top 400 prospect rankings Friday! The team top 20s are also updated to factor in all the trades and top 400 movement. Next week I'll have the dynasty rankings fully updated for the final time during the regular season.

For today's mailbag, I got a lot of questions essentially asking which prospects benefit the most from getting traded at this year's trade deadline, so I tried to group them by type and team.

Clearer Path To Playing Time

Nick Yorke, 2B/DH, BOS to PIT

Yorke was not drafted by the current Red Sox brass, and his poor defense and right-handedness were likely going to cost him playing time in Boston. He still may not be able to supplant Nick Gonzales at second base, but there's nobody in his way at designated hitter.

Connor Norby, 2B/LF, BAL to MIA

Kyle Stowers, RF/LF, BAL to MIA

Deyvison De Los Santos, DH/1B/3B, ARI to MIA

Agustin Ramirez, C/1B/DH, NYY to MIA

Jared Serna, 2B/SS, NYY to MIA

Graham Pauley, 2B/3B/LF/1B, SD to MIA

Stowers, De Los Santos and Ramirez may gain the most of the new Marlins, as Ramirez has a clear path to catching, De Los Santos has a clearer path to designated hitter and Stowers was never going to get a fair look in Baltimore's outfield. Unfortunately, Norby, Serna and Pauley all fit best at second base, so perhaps Pauley gets a look at third base with Norby at the keystone (eventually) and then they'll figure out what to do with Serna in a couple years. I could see Stowers particularly having deep mixed-league value over the next two months, and then De Los Santos, Norby, Ramirez and Pauley should be draftable in draft-and-hold leagues this winter.

Matthew Lugo, LF/RF, BOS to LAA

Niko Kavadas, DH/1B, BOS to LAA

Like with Yorke, Lugo and Kavadas are extreme bat-first players who were unlikely to get a fair look in Boston anytime soon, so this trade should get them to the majors sooner. Kavadas is likely a Quad-A DH type and not a top-400 prospect, but I could see Lugo playing somewhat regularly in left field for the Angels at some point next season. 

Thayron Liranzo, C/1B/DH, LAD to DET

Trey Sweeney, SS, LAD to DET

With Will Smith and Dalton Rushing ahead of Liranzo on the Dodgers' long-term depth chart, this should increase Liranzo's chances of being a regular big-league backstop. Sweeney, a career .250 hitter with a .353 OBP, is more likely to get a chance at shortstop for the Tigers, but I don't think he'll hit enough to be viable in mixed leagues. We can always cite the Yordan Alvarez trade as a big failure on Andrew Friedman's trade ledger, but generally there isn't a good track record of the position players the Dodgers move going on to have big-league success (Yusniel Diaz, Jeter Downs, Willie Calhoun, etc...).

Mac Horvath, 3B/2B/RF/CF, BAL to TB

Matthew Etzel, CF/LF/RF, BAL to TB

Horvath and Etzel were already ranked as though they weren't going to break through as regulars with Baltimore, so this doesn't impact their value on my rankings even though they probably have a better chance of playing long term with the Rays.

Pitchers Who Benefited

I don't think trades help or hurt pitchers as much as they can with hitters, as few teams have such good rotation depth that a good pitching prospect can't break through. However, I like that the Orioles targeted Patrick Reilly, as I'm confident they will maximize him. I also think Robby Snelling and Adam Mazur will get more opportunities to start (with less pressure) now that they're in Miami and out of San Diego.

Others of Note

Joey Loperfido, LF/1B/DH, HOU to TOR

Jonatan Clase, CF/LF, SEA to TOR

Charles McAdoo, 3B/RF/1B, PIT to TOR

I don't think these moves significantly impact the value of Loperfido, Clase or McAdoo, but I did just want to mention them since they're three of the top seven "prospects" who got dealt at the deadline (Loperfido is no longer technically a prospect). Loperfido should strong-side platoon in left field and then Clase could be ready for a prominent role sometime next year, although he won't be unseating a healthy George Springer or Daulton Varsho. The Pirates obviously sold high on McAdoo, who was unranked coming into the year, but I like the bat speed and think he could challenge Orelvis Martinez/Addison Barger for the third base job long term.

Greg T: What do you think of Christopher Morel in Tampa?

I love it. He was an obvious buy-low statistically (.242 xBA, .218 BABIP), and his 25.2 O-Swing%, 70.2 Contact%, 13.7 SwStr% were all career bests. With someone like Morel, I just want him to be somewhere he's wanted, and it seemed like the Cubs were never quite satisfied with his defensive profile. He's already played second base and homered twice for the Rays, and I expect him to finish strong and play regularly for them in 2025.

Chief Eth: Does the Isaac Paredes trade block Matt Shaw's (CHC) path to a role in the big leagues?

A Shaw-Dansby Swanson-Nico Hoerner 3B-SS-2B setup was always going to be tough to pull off because of Shaw's arm. The fact Swanson and Hoerner have combined to hit 13 home runs this season is a pretty big problem, and I don't think we should overlook the reporting that Hoerner was in some trade talks at this deadline. If Shaw just stays on his current trajectory, he'll be one of the Cubs' four or five best hitters at some point in the next year or two, and they'll need to find a spot for him.

Phrappie: Is Alex Clemmey (WAS) the best piece to get for our NL-only league in the Lane Thomas Trade? We can grab one guy...

Rafael Ramirez is the clear third piece, so it's between Clemmey and Jose Tena. 

Clemmey is all ceiling and Tena is more floor than ceiling, but what Tena has done this year at Triple-A is pretty interesting. His 34.7 Hard% is very good for a middle infielder (he's also playing more third base these days) and he's going to get some chances with Washington as early as this season. I definitely like Tena more than Trey Lipscomb for instance. For what it's worth, Tena is actually not prospect eligible on my rankings due to how much time he spent on Cleveland's active roster before the trade. 

Clemmey is as risky as a pitching prospect can get who doesn't have a notable injury history. He's 6-foot-6 and has a 15.8 BB% at Single-A. Also, pitchers who are touching the upper-90s as teenagers typically need Tommy John surgery sooner than later.

I think I'd take Tena because of how long Clemmey's road will be, but it's possible Clemmey could be a top 200 prospect in less than a year.

Camposite: Who do you think is a good comp for Luke Keaschall's (MIN) ceiling?

How about Ian Kinsler? I think Keaschall is going to get the absolute most out of his tools, as did Kinsler, and he's got a chance to be good at everything in fantasy. 

It stood out to me when putting this update together that Keaschall is essentially the exact same age as Travis Bazzana (CLE) and JJ Wetherholt (STL), and if either Bazzana or Wetherholt does what Keaschall is doing at Double-A later this summer, most people would value them as top 10 prospects. Keaschall has very similar physical tools to those guys and plays essentially the same position(s), so it's natural to compare them. 

Jeffrey Thomas: How would a combined First-Year Player Draft Top 10 look from the 2023 and 2024 draft classes (without knowing what we know now about 2023)?

My POST-DRAFT rankings from last year's class:

Tier 1

1. Wyatt Langford (TEX)

2. Dylan Crews (WAS)

3. Paul Skenes (PIT)

Tier 2

4. Max Clark (DET)

5. Walker Jenkins (MIN)

6. Matt Shaw (CHC)

7. Brock Wilken (MIL)

This year:

Tier 1

1. Charlie Condon (COL)

2. Travis Bazzana (CLE)

3. JJ Wetherholt (STL)

Tier 2

4. Jac Caglianone (KC)

5. Konnor Griffin (PIT)

6. Theo Gillen (TB)

7. Bryce Rainer (DET)

I definitely liked Clark and Jenkins more than the prep hitters in this class (Griffin, Gillen, Rainer), and I like Caglianone a bit more this year than I liked Wilken after last year's draft, but probably not as much as I liked Shaw. So here's my best guess as to how I valued the top of the classes RIGHT AFTER each draft:

1. Wyatt Langford
2. Dylan Crews
3. Paul Skenes
4. Charlie Condon
5. Travis Bazzana
6. JJ Wetherholt
7. Max Clark
8. Walker Jenkins
9. Matt Shaw
10. Jac Caglianone

The Prospect Professor: How does the trade to Tampa Bay influence your outlook on Aidan Smith and Brody Hopkins moving forward?

It made me feel pretty good about where I had Smith (103) and Hopkins (351) ranked. I trust the Rays with player development, but I also trust the Mariners, especially with pitching, so it's kind of a wash in that sense. I know there are people who value Smith more highly than I do, but I think if Seattle saw him as a borderline top 50 prospect, they wouldn't have done the deal. He's doing what an athletic, toolsy hitter should do as a 19-year-old at Single-A, and we'll see how the hit tool translates at High-A and Double-A. 

Zak Gonzalez: After Tampa Bay sent Randy Arozarena to Seattle, did Brody Hopkins (TB) or Aidan Smith (TB) get moved in your rankings at all to account for the new org? Or did you just keep them where you initially had them on this update?

I kept them where they were, as the way the prospects seemed to be valued in the deal aligned almost exactly with how I had them ranked. That's not to say I definitely would have moved them if it seemed like the Mariners/Rays were higher or lower on the players than I am, but it felt like confirmation to me of where they were slotted on the 400.

Straface23: How quickly do you think we see Junior Caminero take over on an everyday basis for TB?

Aug. 25 is the first day the Rays can call him up this year without him eclipsing his rookie eligibility. He spent 10 days on the active roster in 2023 and would lose his eligibility if he goes over 45 total days on the active roster or over 130 career MLB at-bats before the end of this regular season. Caminero isn't the type of player the Rays are going to platoon once he's up, especially since he bats right-handed. 

Michael O'Bryan: In one of your last updates you explained Chase DeLauter's (CLE) drop as a result of his injury history and body type. The body type is probably better for Jordan Lawlar, but does his continued injured status not scare you at all? Dude can't stay healthy...

Yes, Lawlar's injury-proneness is a concern, but it's not as big of a concern to me as with DeLauter (the exact type of injuries combined with his body and position is very troubling). Here's Lawlar's lengthy injury history since getting drafted out of high school in 2021: Shoulder surgery, back injury, fractured scapula, wrist injury, HBP on hand, thumb surgery, hamstring strain. It's a lot, for a 22-year-old prospect, but I don't really see a specific type of injury, such as regular lower-body muscle strains like we saw from prospect Eloy Jimenez, or persistent foot injuries like we've seen with the 6-foot-4, 235-pound DeLauter.

I don't feel good about having Lawlar ranked 11th, but I also wouldn't feel good about having him ranked 20th. It's a tough one for sure, and if you're scared off by the injuries, I don't really blame you, but I also think there's a danger of selling too low at this point. If Lawlar is healthy when he gets to spring training and stays healthy throughout the spring, I'll be pretty interested for 2025.

ProspectVibeCheck: I understand that Henry Bolte (OAK) has strikeout concerns, but isn't the fact that he's 20, in Double-A, and has — to this point — put together an .867 OPS season with 12 HR, 36 SB and a 12.0 BB% warrant more consideration? The raw tools are good enough to offset K concerns at the higher levels...

Bolte's 62 percent contact rate this year, primarily at High-A, is pretty tough to get past. For you, the raw tools are good enough to offset the K concerns at the higher levels, but I start the process the other way, looking at the K concerns first and then figuring out how high I'm comfortable putting him based on the raw tools. Double-A is often the level where these guys get exposed, and I don't see a reason to just assume Bolte will figure it out because he's got good raw tools. If he had, say a 68 percent contact rate and a 32 percent strikeout rate at Double-A (it's 36% right now), I'd probably be closer to your evaluation.

CPar_08: I was surprised to see Marco Luciano (SF) move up to 107 on the latest rankings. What do you see? Also, 5-6 years into the Farhan Zaidi era, where do you slot the Giants overall relative to other MLB clubs as it pertains to drafting, scouting, development etc.? Just when I am about to lose all hope guys like Heliot Ramos, Tyler Fitzgerald and Hayden Birdsong take big strides!

I'm glad you asked about Luciano. I think something may have clicked for him this time around at Triple-A. He had a .483 OBP and five homers with 15 walks and 12 strikeouts in his last 12 games at Triple-A before getting the call yesterday, and even going back to when he returned from injury June 11, he had a .370 OBP, 17.9 BB% and 26.5 K%. Heliot Ramos showed similar flashes late last season and broke out this year, and I'm pretty intrigued by the idea of Luciano doing the same either down the stretch this year or next year.

Overall, the Giants have been worse at drafting and developing since Zaidi took over than I would have expected. I only have eight Giants prospects on the top 400 right now, which is pretty poor, considering they have significant resources and haven't been competing at a high level the past two seasons. Signing bat-first players like Michael Conforto and Jorge Soler didn't make sense to me at the time, and we've seen that they didn't hold enough value to net the Giants prospect gold as deadline sellers. I didn't see the Tyler Fitzgerald thing coming at all (obviously), and he's probably going to regress pretty significantly down the stretch, but that was still a nice story for the regime. I wouldn't put them as a bottom five organization, but I wouldn't put them as a top-half organization either.

James Sailenac: I've had some interest in Hayden Birdsong (SF) for some time now. What's your logic behind this type of bump up the board?

He's got a full starter's repertoire (four pitches thrown over 15% of the time), sits 96 mph with the fastball, has a plus slider, and has shown bigger strides as a pitcher and strike thrower than I would have expected if you told me he would get six big-league starts in the middle of this summer after opening the year at Double-A. I love the home park, and I love the fact that he's got significant value for contenders and rebuilders since he's currently in a big-league rotation. I just got Birdsong at pick 70 of the P1ADP Prospect Mock draft I'm participating in, so he's a buy-high for me and I plan on having a lot of him in 2025 if he finishes the year healthy.

BobMay: Just wondering where you would rank Christian Scott (NYM) if he was still prospect-eligible? Also wanted to hear your thoughts on Brandon Sproat (NYM) and his rankings drop.

Oof, i'm glad I don't have to rank Scott. He didn't look like himself after his first big-league start (and his fastball velocity backed up a tick or two after that), and I wonder if his elbow/arm was bothering him that whole time. I'm assuming he'll get Tommy John surgery before we see him back in the majors, and hopefully his stuff will come all the way back. Even then, we're talking about 2026, so I'd probably have him in the 60-90 range.

Coreyb3p: Why the drop for Brandon Sproat (NYM)?

I got multiple questions about Sproat falling out of the top 100, and rightfully so. Sometimes guys just slip in the rankings without me setting out to drop them, and I think Blade Tidwell's (NYM) massive struggles after going from Double-A to Triple-A may have subconsciously spooked me a little on Sproat. Looking just at the pitchers, Sproat should be ahead of Chase Petty (CIN) and Braxton Ashcraft (PIT), but I don't think he should definitely be ahead of Quinn Mathews (STL), Jackson Ferris (LAD), Noble Meyer (MIA), Hurston Waldrep (ATL), etc… The values of the prospects in this range are pretty flat, and if you like Sproat over, even say Cade Horton (CHC) at 57, I wouldn't push back, but for what it's worth, every pitcher I've got ahead of Sproat who is at Double-A or lower, is younger than Sproat.

Richard Sands: Where would Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) rank if still eligible?

Very high — probably around 20th overall. If you look at what he did in the minors and in the majors, it's very tough to pick apart Schwellenbach's success. And like with Birdsong, I love the fact that Schwellenbach has significant value to contending and rebuilding teams alike. 

GordyMeyers: What separates your DSL evaluations when the stats are, well, the DSL. Looking at Jesus Made (MIL), Franklin Arias (BOS), Emil Morales (LAD), Luis Pena (MIL), Jose Anderson (MIL), Paulino Santana (TEX) for example this year. Do you get video looks or other input? Body (current and projected) a big factor? 

I know you included Arias, but for the sake of this question, I'll put him to the side, since he's already at Single-A. Let me know if you meant a different Arias. 

Even since this update, I'd have Morales a bit higher, since he is on a pretty crazy heater. The video you get of DSL guys is mostly just of highlights like home runs, so that's a small part of the equation. A lot of it is going back and looking at my notes from the Breakout Rookie Level Hitters article and comparing that with their production. For example, with Jesus Made, the pluses coming into the year were pedigree, age/level and power, and he's showing one of the best hit tools (statistically) in the DSL while stealing 22 bases on 25 attempts, so he's looking like a five-category player. There's some anchoring involved with someone like Santana, as I was high on him coming into the year based on video and public reports, and while he didn't hit for over-the-fence power in the DSL, he did everything else well. I also factor in the reports from places like Baseball America, which have been glowing on Anderson, who wasn't even a notable enough signee to be featured in my Breakout Rookie Level Hitters article.

Kluo87: Is Sebastian Walcott (TEX) a potential No. 1 overall prospect if he gets run at AA and looks even average? 

If Walcott gets run at Double-A and looks average (~100 wRC+), I don't think that'd be enough for him to pass Junior Caminero (TB), Coby Mayo (BAL) or Walker Jenkins (MIN), who I expect to all retain their prospect eligibility heading into the offseason. Walcott could pass Charlie Condon (COL) and Roman Anthony (BOS) pretty easily though, even if he just finished strong at High-A and those two don't go nuts over the final weeks. Walcott could pass Jasson Dominguez (NYY) and Jackson Jobe (DET) if he got to Double-A and had some success, but I think just being 10th is a pretty good spot to be for Walcott as an 18-year-old. No need to put the cart ahead of the horse.

JJ: Sebastian Walcott (TEX), Leodalis De Vries (SD), JJ Wetherholt (STL) or Jac Caglianone (KC) highest ceiling?

In the order you listed them (and the order they're ranked). There's a drop (ceiling-wise) from Walcott and De Vries to Wetherholt and Caglianone, and I think Wetherholt's hit tool and speed edge over Caglianone is enough to more than make up for Caglianone's power edge.

Finny: Who is currently giving you the high-risk/high-reward vibe? It doesn't always pan out but that's fine, Elly De La Cruz worked out and so far Sebastian Walcott (TEX). Roderick Arias's (NYY) improved July K% maybe? Jonny Farmelo (SEA)? Kristian Campbell (BOS)? Zyhir Hope (LAD)? Jhostynxon Garcia (BOS)? Brayden Taylor (TB)?

It's good to see Arias' cut his strikeout rate (21.2 K% in July), but he's also got just one homer this month and he's going to turn 20 in September. Elly had a 161 wRC+ at High-A and got to Double-A as a 20-year-old, and Walcott is already a level ahead of Arias and a year and a half younger, so I'm ruling out Arias for this question. I like Farmelo, Campbell, Garcia and especially Hope as potential answers. Taylor doesn't give me high-risk vibes, his only issue is he's been old for his levels, and I think that has maybe allowed him to put up high-ceiling stats, when I view him more as just a really solid all-around player (not a superstar) long term.

I used the top 400 filters to look at only hitters 20 and younger (high-reward) with a K% of 22% or higher (high-risk), and among prospects outside the top 50, I think Zyhir Hope (LAD), Jonny Farmelo (SEA), Robert Calaz (COL), Tai Peete (SEA) and Eric Bitonti (MIL) are the best answers.

Bitcould: How do you parse the high-end Statcast guys who aren't even in full-season ball yet? It feels like someone like Robert Calaz (COL) could be anywhere between 40 and 200. Maybe a better question is: who are some of your favorite young bats at the complex level?

Speaking of Calaz, it's just hard for me to fully buy in on any hitter who is 18 and 8 months with zero full-season experience and a strikeout rate in the 20s. Rookie ball is so easy right now for hitters (hitter-friendly parks, bad pitching), that a hitter having success tells us something but not a ton. I agree with your 40-200 range on him — if you don't care at all about risk/ETA, you could value him at 40.

As for my favorite young bats at the complex level, Felnin Celesten (SEA) and Eduardo Quintero (LAD) are my two favorites. Celesten, who has played just one game since June 20 due to a wrist injury, is starting to develop a bit of an injury track record of his own. Quintero looks like the total package and I can't wait to see how he does at Single-A. After those two and excluding 2024 draftees, you quickly get to Joendry Vargas (LAD), Calaz, Brailer Guerrero (TB) and Starlyn Caba (PHI).

Yaboifritzlang: I saw Dawel Joseph (SEA) dropped off entirely. I remember him being loved more by a guest on the pod, but curious if he's dropped more because you're out on him or more by default because of all the new names from the draft?

Sometimes we hit on guys like this, and sometimes we don't. It's almost unheard of for a guy to struggle significantly in the Dominican Summer League and go on to become a phenom. Joseph is a good athlete and he was a bit unlucky on balls in play, but a 48 wRC+ in a full DSL sample is always going to get a hitter bumped off the top 400.

Finny: Do the ranks for A's prospects attribute that their home park for the next three seasons is going to be a joke & Las Vegas could be too? With how notorious the M's park has become, I assume that dings guys like Cole Young (SEA). What if they change the park given how bad it's become?

I'm just lower on Young. The park definitely won't do him any favors, but I don't see much fantasy impact there regardless of the park. His upside is Bryson Stott and his downside is a bench infielder. 

As for the A's, if we're going to speculate about the M's changing their park, why not speculate about Sacramento moving the fences back? Basically, 90% of my ranking of the A's guys is going to come down to whether I think the player is going to be good, and then you could give them a minor bump for the potential park upgrade. I'm excited to see what Derek Carty has to say about the park factors this offseason at First Pitch Florida, and I may give the A's hitters more of a bump once it becomes clearer how much of an impact it will have. For what it's worth, Sacramento is the fifth worst Triple-A park for hitting homers, ahead of only Nashville, Toledo, Gwinnett and Sugar Land, so it's not like they're moving to Las Vegas or Albuquerque next year.

Scooter: The news that Ricky Tiedemann (TOR) would have Tommy John surgery broke after your list was published. With this news, where would you now place Tiedemann? 

I ranked Tiedemann under the assumption he'd get TJS, so no change in his value.

Kluo87: Do we think Angel Martinez is part of the Guardians future as they get a potential influx of future talent (Kyle Manzardo, Travis Bazzana, Chase DeLauter)? 

He's at least got a shot. Unlike Manzardo, Martinez has had success in the majors (and can play more positions). Bazzana will obviously be the second baseman of the future, and DeLauter is a right fielder if it all works out, so Martinez will be competing with guys like Tyler Freeman, Will Brennan, Brayan Rocchio and Daniel Schneemann for opportunities. 

Camposite: Are Lazaro Montes' (SEA) struggles in High-A reason for enough concern to try to sell high while I can?

I would sell him if you can get one of the prospects I ranked ahead of him. These are concerning struggles but not necessarily surprising, given the jump in competition. You shouldn't panic and take anything for him, but Montes was the 21st prospect selected in the P1ADP Mock I'm in right now, so I'm sure you could get at least a handful of the guys I've ranked ahead of him in certain leagues.

Kluo87: How much are we believing in Lawrence Butler? He's always has had some exciting underlying metrics/hard-hit data...

The only thing I don't love about Lawrence Butler is that I don't have more shares of him. I at least have some, but I was too slow to jump on him after he got sent to Triple-A. I love everything I'm seeing and think he could go 25/20 next year.

Dawes Williams: I expected to see K.C. Hunt (MIL) make the top 400. Not a ton of info on him, but great surface stats backed up by a tremendous K-BB%. Old for the levels he's played at, but that never keeps you from ranking a pitcher high if you believe. You're a Brewers fan, so I'd love to hear your insight...

I've got no problem with anyone valuing Hunt as a top-400 prospect, or even a top-300 prospect. He is 24 and sits at 93 mph with his fastball. If I ranked him, he would be the oldest pitcher on the list below Double-A. Generally you're correct about my philosophy with caring less about age with pitching prospects than with hitting prospects, but the Brewers have so many interesting pitching prospects, I was looking for reasons to exclude some guys and Hunt's age and mediocre velocity seemed like fair tie breakers.

RossRedcay017: Thoughts on Mike Burrows (PIT), who missed the top 400?

Burrows should have made the list, and in the 250 range or so. It'd be great to see him get some starts in the majors down the stretch. I also regretted leaving DJ Herz (WAS) off the list -- he should have been in that 200-300 range as well.

Stinkfist4693: Have you heard or seen anything regarding Kristian Robinson (ARI)? Last update on the site is from April I believe...

There's not really anything to report. He's healthy and playing poorly at Double-A and fell off the prospect rankings on this update.

Yick: Who do you like more long term? Tyler Fitzgerald (SF) or Xavier Edwards (MIA)?

I know Fitzgerald has more insane numbers, but I love what Edwards is doing and think it's more sustainable. Edwards won't hit for much power, but he could steal 40 bases next year with a good average and plenty of runs. 

Stinkfist4693: Is it time to give up on Edouard Julien?

I wouldn't say that. Jose Miranda was awful last year at the same age Julien is this year (25) and Miranda was good this year. In shallower leagues, especially AVG leagues, I don't think he's special enough to hold if it's hurting your team.

GordyMeyers: This summer is the first I've ever read that the college ball is different. Can you elaborate on what the differences are, and the wrinkle that throws into stats, drafts, your work?

I don't really get into the specifics with stuff like "juiced balls" -- it doesn't help me rank prospects to know the physics behind changes to the ball -- but I do need to know when the balls might be juiced, and Geoff Pontes of Baseball America chronicled that here. The main takeaway is that you shouldn't look at the crazy offensive numbers from college this season and assume that a bunch of the best college hitters from the past 10 years are in this draft class. I don't think there's a single "sure thing" from this class.