Farm Futures: Stashing Season 2.0

We've seen the first big wave of promotions this season, and from here on, teams have secured an extra year of control and have dodged a fourth year of arbitration, so there are no more service-time games to be played. There are a handful of prospects still in the minors whom many of you have been stashing all season. There are others who were promoted and then sent back to the minors, but who still warrant stashing in certain formats. One big name has emerged as a quality stash in deeper leagues. Another dozen prospects need to be closely monitored, as they are not quite stash-worthy, but could become relevant in redraft leagues in short order. There are also a handful of big names who could still make it up this year, but are either unlikely to debut in 2019 or are unlikely to be up in time to provide significant fantasy value.

In this piece, I attempt to analyze when we could see these players, or what it would take for them to get the call. Within each subgroup, players are listed in the order they are ranked on the recently-updated top 400. In next week's piece I will provide the annual Short-Season/Rookie Hitter Index article that should serve as a key tool identifying this year's breakout teenagers in the short-season leagues, most of which begin play this weekend.

Understandable Impatience

Kyle Tucker, OF

The Astros needed to keep Tucker down until June 3 to secure a seventh year of control. That date has passed. This is a pretty cold-blooded organization -- a trait that is only further strengthened thanks to a firm grip on the American League West. Many teams would have needed Yordan Alvarez before the second week of June and/or would have needed Tucker weeks ago, but the Astros can cruise to a division crown while keeping whoever they want in the minors for as long as they want. Derek Fisher's plate skills have been much better than in his previous stints in the majors, but he's not really adding much in terms of offensive or defensive impact. Tucker, meanwhile, is hitting .333/.412/.764 with 16 home runs and nine steals (on nine attempts) over his last 35 games in the Pacific Coast League. He has a 19.9 percent strikeout rate over that stretch, and while I expect him to strike out a decent amount in the majors, at least initially, there's really no performance-based argument that he should still be at Triple-A. We should remember, however, that George Springer (hamstring) and Jose Altuve (hamstring) are close to going on rehab assignments, so two players will need to be sent down when they are activated, which will only make it tougher for Tucker to break through. Alvarez already looks like one of their best hitters, and Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick deserve significant playing time, so where would Tucker slot in? They could shift Yuli Gurriel to third, Alex Bregman to shortstop and Yordan Alvarez to first base while Carlos Correa (ribs) is still on the shelf, but things would still be pretty crowded. I believe Tucker still needs to be held in 12-team redraft leagues, but I concede that this could continue to be a very frustrating situation.

Luis Urias, 2B

The Padres are a very ethical organization, relative to other baseball teams, as evidenced by their willingness to break camp with Chris Paddack and Fernando Tatis Jr. on the 25-man roster. Additionally, unlike the Astros, this is a team that needs all the help it can get to stay in the hunt for a playoff spot. One complication, with regards to when we could see Urias, is the fact that Ian Kinsler has been pretty good (.846 OPS since May 1) over the past six weeks. Urias' numbers at Triple-A are excellent, but he is in the midst of a slight cold streak by his standards -- just two multi-hit games over his last 11 games and 12 strikeouts over that stretch. He will be in the majors at some point this summer, and while the most recent news from Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune suggests he will be up before the end of June, that's not quite a lock.

Jesus Luzardo, LHP

Luzardo was excellent in his first rehab outing for High-A Stockton, and he could be pitching in Triple-A sometime in the next couple weeks. From there, I don't think it will be very long before Luzardo is in the big-league rotation. Fortunately this situation basically hinges on Luzardo staying healthy and productive -- there are no major complications with regards to him being blocked in the majors. The A's are not likely to make the playoffs, but I wouldn't expect them to throw in the towel as long as they are at or slightly above .500 when Luzardo is ready. Additionally, as I've mentioned before, I think it's the height of stupidity to let service-time concerns affect the big-league ETA of pitching prospects. It has happened in the past with other teams, but I don't think it would happen in this case.

Jorge Mateo, SS/2B

Of the top-400 prospects with at least 50 plate appearances at Triple-A this season, Mateo's 38.3 percent Hard-Hit rate ranks third behind Ty France (45.3 percent) and Bobby Bradley (39.4 percent). Unlike France and Bradley, Mateo is also an 80-grade runner. These two factors are very important when looking at his .417 average on balls in play. Yes, that BABIP does not reflect his true talent level, but a player as fast as Mateo who is making as much hard contact as he is should run a high BABIP. His 26.5 percent line-drive rate also supports a high BABIP. So with that type of 2019 production and 161 games at Triple-A under his belt, why is Mateo still at Triple-A? Well, Jurickson Profar hasn't been great, but he has been much better over his last 125 at-bats (.240 AVG, seven HR, 19:9 K:BB) than he was at the start of the season. Additionally, Profar has just one error in his last 33 games after experiencing the yips earlier this season. As things stand, Oakland would need to either move Profar to a utility role or promote Mateo into a utility role, and the A's are understandably not willing to make either of those moves right now. Barring a trade or another big slump from Profar, I think it would take an injury to either Marcus Semien or Profar for Mateo to get the call. 

Dylan Cease, RHP

General Manager Rick Hahn said earlier this week that Cease (who was apparently pulled from his last start at Triple-A due to a lack of preparation for the second game of a doubleheader when it was clear he didn't have his best stuff) is not too far away from the majors. 

Hahn said almost the exact same things last year about Michael Kopech a little over three weeks before Kopech was summoned from Triple-A for his big league debut. They are different players, obviously, but I could see this unfolding the exact same way, with Cease joining the big club around the All-Star break. I think Luzardo will provide greater per-start fantasy value, but I think Cease will get to the big leagues a couple weeks before Luzardo.

Zac Gallen, RHP

Craig is as plugged in on the Marlins beat as anyone, so I buy this assessment. It seems like the issue is that the Marlins don't want to use Gallen as a short-term stopgap, they want him to be up for good when they make the call. Additionally, he would not have lined up to start Wednesday in place of Jose Urena (lower-back tightness), and Caleb Smith's hip inflammation was not thought to be enough of a long-term issue to start Gallen's clock -- and they wanted to be in the clear regarding Super 2 status. It sounds like the worst-case scenario is that Gallen will get the call after the trade deadline. Perhaps in shallow leagues it's not worth potentially waiting that long on him, but I still think he's a hold in deeper formats. I'd rank him third behind Cease and Luzardo in terms of stash priority.

Gone But Not Forgotten

Keston Hiura, 2B

Things that would lead to Hiura getting the call:

• Eric Thames gets hurt
• Travis Shaw gets hurt
• Mike Moustakas gets hurt
• Travis Shaw, who is slashing .267/.450/.533 since Hiura got sent down, goes through another significant slump
• Eric Thames, who is slashing .211/.348/.421 since Hiura got sent down, stops hitting for enough power and drawing enough walks to make up for his significant contact issues (34.9 K%)

Short of one of those five things happening, we might not see Hiura for a while. However, there's probably at least a 50 percent chance one of those things happens before the All-Star break.

Nate Lowe, 1B

Lowe is hitting .393/.500/.607 with two home runs and a 6:6 K:BB in eight games since being sent back to Triple-A on June 2. The problem is, there's nowhere for him to play right now in the big leagues. The Rays have shown that they will not hesitate to summon Lowe whenever one of Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham, Avisail Garcia, Ji-Man Choi or Kevin Kiermaier is banged up, but it would probably take a significant injury to one of those five players for Lowe to get an extended look.

Carter Kieboom, 2B/SS

Kieboom is hitting .237/.358/.505 with five home runs, a 24:18 K:BB and a .254 BABIP in 28 games since being sent back to Triple-A. Unfortunately, over that same span, Brian Dozier is hitting .291/.357/.515 with five home runs and 26 strikeouts in 32 games. The floundering Nationals will surely attempt to deal Dozier at the deadline, but I can't imagine there being much demand for him. Barring an injury to one of Washington's infielders, we may not see Kieboom until Aug. 1, at the earliest.

Bryse Wilson, RHP

Wilson has a 2.06 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 35:7 K:BB over 35 innings in his last six starts with Triple-A Gwinnett. The addition of Dallas Keuchel means Wilson will probably need an injury to get a legitimate look in the rotation, but injuries in the rotation are typically a matter of when, not if, so I think we still hear from Wilson again at some point this season. Locating his fastball early in the count is so crucial for him, but at some point this is a guy who is going to be a good big-league starter.

Luis Arraez, 2B

This is a bone for dynasty-league managers, as I don't think Arraez needs to be stashed in mixed redraft leagues. I do, however, think he will compete to be the Twins' everyday second baseman next season, and I like the bat enough that I think he needs to be held in all dynasty leagues. He walks more than he strikes out, which, coupled with his line drive-oriented approach to all fields, should lead to very high batting averages. Power and speed aren't a big part of his game right now, but I think he can eventually be a 15-homer guy who hits .300 and gets on base at a .380 clip.

Time To Stash

Brendan McKay, LHP

McKay is a really good pitching prospect. I don't think any evaluator views McKay as the best pitching prospect in the game, but I know there are people who view Casey Mize as the best pitching prospect in the game, and I don't think there's anything separating those two pitchers in terms of talent, upside or floor. If someone said McKay is a better prospect than Mize because he is left-handed and closer to the majors, I wouldn't push back on that at all. Through three starts at Triple-A, McKay has given up three runs, walked two and struck out 14 in 15 innings. His 52.6 percent groundball rate through those three starts is also quite impressive. The 6-foot-2, 212-pound southpaw throws four pitches (fastball, cutter, curveball, changeup), all of which are at least above average and a couple of which (fastball, cutter) are plus. He also has elite command for a minor-league pitcher. It's a very appealing set of tools, particularly for a lefty. The Rays have plenty of pitching depth, but they are legitimate World Series contenders this year, so I don't see them leaving a player of McKay's caliber at Triple-A all season. He has only thrown 56.2 innings after throwing 78.1 innings last year, so he shouldn't face significant workload restrictions over the rest of the season.

For Watch Lists

Monte Harrison, OF

If I were running the Marlins, I'd probably keep Harrison at Triple-A all season. He has been so much better at that level than I would have guessed coming into the year, but I would want him to be ready to have some success in the majors, and I'm worried that if he were promoted this summer he might fall flat on his face, which could do more harm than good. All that said, he has the tools -- 70-grade raw power, but more importantly 60-grade speed -- to be relevant immediately if he got the call. Harrison is expected to return from a hamstring injury in short order. If he really goes on a tear after getting activated, it might be time to stash in deep leagues.

Austin Hays, OF

Hays (thumb) was assigned to Triple-A a few days ago after completing his rehab assignment in the lower levels. He has been playing center field, which is perfect, as it basically means he's not blocked at all in Baltimore. If he gets 20-25 games under his belt at Triple-A and is exhibiting solid plate skills (hopefully a strikeout rate around 20 percent), then I think we could see Hays up around the All-Star break.

Ryan Mountcastle, 1B/OF

The Orioles have said that they want Mountcastle to get outfield reps later this summer -- something that has not happened yet. Back on May 22 they also said they would like him to face Triple-A pitchers for a second time to see how he responds to being pitched differently -- his 2.9 percent walk rate is atrocious, and perhaps Triple-A pitchers will have taken note that they should not be throwing him strikes. The clues at our disposal suggest it may be a while before Mountcastle gets a promotion to the majors, and he might not even be up until 2020. 

Bobby Bradley, 1B

Bradley sports a 39.4 percent Hard-Hit rate and 10.2 percent Soft-Hit rate at Triple-A. Those are elite marks. He made some significant adjustments this season, dropping his Pull% from around 50 percent last year to 38.6 percent, which is critical for a player who big-league teams would otherwise love to deploy the shift against. We've always known about Bradley's mammoth raw power, but he appeared to stagnate over the past couple seasons, so this season has been a wonderful surprise. His 32.2 percent strikeout rate is obviously not ideal, but nobody is expecting Bradley to hit for a high average. I think he can be a .245 hitter who hits a ton of bombs, and every now and then he'll have a lucky year where he hits .260. That's not an amazing player, but it's pretty much what we expect out of Matt Olson. He has 90 games under his belt at Triple-A and Jake Bauers has been worth -0.6 wins according to FanGraphs. I think we could see a changing of the guard sometime in July.

Daniel Johnson, OF

I was dead wrong when I said I didn't understand the return the Indians received from Washington in the Yan Gomes trade. Johnson was the headliner in that deal and is now looking like a potential everyday outfielder -- something the Indians could desperately use. He has the arm for right field and the speed for center field, so his versatility is an added bonus. Johnson's above-average power has been on full display (12 HR, .537 SLG), but he has not been running as much as he did last year when he stole 21 bases on 25 attempts in just 89 games at Double-A. This year he has six steals on nine attempts in 56 games, but from a pure speed standpoint, he should be more of a 20-steal threat over a full season. Johnson hits the ball in the air (groundball rate under 40 percent) and uses the whole field. He sports an 18.5 percent strikeout rate and 11.1 percent walk rate since getting to Triple-A. Cleveland could be conservative and wait until next year to bring up Johnson, but I think it's more likely we see him in about 4-6 weeks.

Willi Castro, SS

The Tigers apparently concocted a plan in spring training to keep Castro at Triple-A until September? That seems like a bizarre process on many levels, but apparently they will be waiting to start the clock on their top shortstop prospect until there is one month left in the MLB season. With this info out there, it would probably be a mistake to stash Castro, who is hitting .318 with four home runs and nine steals (on 11 attempts), but if he were to get the call, his above-average speed would make him pretty appealing in rotisserie leagues.

Adbert Alzolay, RHP

Alzolay's excellence through 26 innings (five starts) in the Pacific Coast League seems to be one of the most under-the-radar things happening in the minors right now. He has 37 strikeouts and just six walks over that stretch. As we would expect from a righty with a plus fastball, plus curveball and shaky changeup, Alzolay has been better against righties (2.76 ERA) than lefties (3.72 ERA), so if he is needed for a spot start or even to take over a rotation spot, I would only feel comfortable starting him against right-heavy lineups initially.

Isan Diaz, 2B

Diaz has been fantastic in a repeat tour of Triple-A. He cut his strikeout rate from 29.0 percent to 22.1 percent and upped his flyball rate from 29.3 percent to 32.7 percent. These new marks are far from elite, but it at least opens the door to him providing a neutral batting average, given his all-fields approach, which has remained a constant in his profile. He is taking advantage of the Triple-A baseball (.244 ISO, 14 HR) and seems like a potential 25-homer, .250 average type of second baseman. It's not a flashy profile, but it's possible he could eventually earn a spot near the top of the order as well. Obviously the Marlins would love to trade Starlin Castro, but that seems like a fool's errand. Nevertheless, Miami may wait until August to promote Diaz. 

Will Craig, 1B

Were it not for Josh Bell, Craig, who is hitting .279/.353/.522 at Triple-A, would be a much more popular prospect in dynasty and redraft leagues alike. Unfortunately, there is no designated hitter spot in the National League, so Craig has nowhere to play as long as Bell is healthy. They can't even really move him to an outfield corner, because they already have a logjam there. Perhaps we will see him come up for a cup of coffee the next time the Pirates head to an American League park.

Long Shots

Bo Bichette, SS

Bichette (hand) will come off the injured list at Triple-A on June 13, which is great. Unfortunately, the timing of that injury has me worried that it may delay Bichette's big-league debut until mid-to-late April of 2020. A fractured hand is the type of injury that probably results in Bichette not playing at his best (particularly from a power standpoint) over the rest of the season, which could prevent him from banging down the door to the majors. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. did everything in his power last year, and he still had to wait a full offseason, and I fear Bichette faces the same fate.

Jo Adell, OF

Like Bichette, Adell's early-season injuries (hamstring/ankle) could prevent him from debuting in the majors this year. Unlike Bichette, Adell's team is not one that is infamous for pinching pennies, so I wouldn't rule out a rapid ascension. He has been red hot through seven games at Double-A, and if he keeps it up, I think it's possible that he looks big-league ready before the Angels come to the conclusion that they can't make the playoffs. For that reason, Adell is my favorite stash in this tier.

Forrest Whitley, RHP

Not much needs to be said here. If Whitley returns from his shoulder injury and looks like the Whitley of old, I think he'll be up, but that's a couple more ifs than we'd like with a pitching prospect who went through some major growing pains earlier this year at Triple-A. A return trip to the Arizona Fall League could be in the cards.

Matt Manning, RHP

Casey Mize, RHP

I'll address both stud Tigers pitching prospects in one blurb, since they're basically in the exact same boat. Manning and Mize are both ready for Triple-A, so I think we'll see those promotions before the All-Star break. However, the language we've heard from general manager Al Avila makes it clear that he and I are on very different pages with regards to how pitching prospects should be handled in a scenario where the player is ready for another challenge, even if the team is not ready to contend. Reading the tea leaves, it seems like we're looking at early-2020 big-league debuts from both talented righties.

A.J. Puk, LHP

Unlike Luzardo, it sounds like Puk will pitch out of the bullpen if he makes it to the big leagues this year. He could be nasty in such a role, but it would probably be too little, too late from a fantasy perspective. Here's hoping we see him pitching as a starter in the Arizona Fall League.