Farm Futures: Massive Prospect Mailbag!

The top 400 prospect rankings were fully updated Friday morning, along with ETAs and team top 20s! This late-May update is always fun because of all the pop-up prospects who emerge, but that also makes it incredibly challenging as I don't want to miss anyone, and this year it seemed there were as many pop-up prospects as ever from the first two months of the minor-league season. 

One of the great things (at least for me) about the RotoWire MLB Discord room is that I get good, quick feedback about the prospect rankings, and indeed someone quickly questioned my exclusion of Caleb Durbin (NYY) from the updated top 400 prospect rankings. Durbin, who I discussed with Dylan White on the May 8 Prospect Podcast, was added to the rankings hours after the update went live, which made it 103 total additions for this update!

Here is the corresponding Prospect Podcast mailbag episode:

And here is the written, extended version of the mailbag:

J3KDF: Where are the tiers?

This is always a an important distinction following an update. 

TIER ONE

1. Wyatt Langford, OF, TEX

2. Paul Skenes, RHP, PIT

3. Jackson Holliday, 2B/SS, BAL

4. Junior Caminero, 3B/2B, TB

TIER TWO

5. James Wood, OF, WAS

6. Jasson Dominguez, OF, NYY

TIER THREE

7. Coby Mayo, 3B/1B, BAL

8. Walker Jenkins, OF, MIN

TIER FOUR

9. Christian Scott, RHP, NYM

10. Jordan Lawlar, SS, ARI

11. Jackson Jobe, RHP, DET

12. Xavier Isaac, 1B, TB

13. Brady House, 3B, WAS

14. Noelvi Marte, 3B, CIN

15. Lazaro Montes, 1B/OF/DH, SEA

16. Roman Anthony, OF, BOS

17. Carson Williams, SS, TB

TIER FIVE

18 Jett Williams (NYM) through 39 Colson Montgomery (CHW)

TIER SIX

40 Felnin Celesten (SEA) through 80 Adael Amador (COL)

TIER SEVEN 

81 Robby Snelling (SD) through 152 Cole Young (SEA)

And then it really opens up after that.

Danny J: Brady House (WAS) rising above Dylan Crews (WAS). What are you seeing?

House and Crews have very similar plate discipline and production numbers at Double-A (more power for House, more speed for Crews) and House is almost 15 months younger. I see a higher ceiling with House -- he's the one who could reasonably hit 30-plus homers, and I don't see anything in the numbers that suggests Crews has a higher floor, although that's definitely the narrative that's out there. They should both be playing every day for Washington by early next season at the latest.

Yick: Parker Meadows (DET) graduated, but I'm curious where he might have fallen now after being in the 20s in the last rankings...

Meadows is certainly not in the circle of trust, but I'm encouraged by a lot of things beyond his MLB surface stats this season. The defense was as good as expected and he was looking to run, he just couldn't get to first base with any regularity. He's been as good as one would hope in a return to Triple-A, especially lately (eight extra-base hits, six steals, five strikeouts, seven walks over his last eight games). 

Here is a full list of players who exhausted their prospect eligibility (not everyone was on the top 400) prior to Friday's update, sorted roughly into two big tiers, and I think Meadows fits squarely in the middle:

Jackson Chourio, Jared Jones, Colton Cowser, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, Luis Gil, Gavin Stone, Kyle Harrison, Mason Miller, Masyn Winn, Jackson Merrill, Joey Ortiz, Evan Carter, Ben Brown, Colt Keith, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch

Parker Meadows

Brayan Rocchio, Curtis Mead, Nolan Schanuel, Justin Martinez, Orion Kerkering, Justin Slaten, Alexander Canario, Austin Shenton, Blaze Alexander, Slade Cecconi, Jordan Wicks, Emerson Hancock, Jordan Leasure, Matt Mervis, Joe Boyle, Austin Wells, Nick Loftin, Dominic Fletcher, Hunter Goodman, Eguy Rosario, Matt Sauer

I'll take Meadows over all the guys in the bottom group, and I like the idea of buying low on him if he's valued significantly lower than guys like Crow-Armstrong and Busch. 

Hynes: Can you explain what went into your decision to drop back Kyle Teel (BOS)?

Yeah, he ended up too low, and I definitely didn't intend for him to have down arrows next to his name. Teel is a high-floor catcher whose power output is to be determined. I wanted him and Agustin Ramirez (NYY) to be next to each other, and I didn't want to push Ramirez much higher than the 90s, but I suppose they should have both been in the 60s or 70s. Long-time readers will know I really struggle with putting too many catchers high in the rankings, and I decided to essentially give Teel's spot to Harry Ford (SEA), whose home/road splits had me concerned last year, but I think I erred in being too conservative with Teel/Ramirez on this update.

Chief Eth: Are you back in on Dalton Rushing (LAD) after experiencing prospect fatigue, or is the jump more related to other players graduating from the list?

His hard-hit rate and contact rate are each up about 10 percent at Double-A relative to where those rates where last year at High-A. I do still have some fatigue with ranking Rushing as an OBP-over-AVG catcher whose playing time situation projects to be crowded, but he earned this jump and if you ignore the playing time complications, he could be 20-40 spots higher.

PaulMax: What are you seeing in Miguel Bleis (BOS) to account for the double up arrows?

He's slashing .318/.408/.506 with four home runs and a 20.4 K% over his last 21 games, so it seems like he's figured things out at Single-A after knocking off some rust. For those who don't know, Bleis has significant power/speed upside and missed most of last year after needing shoulder surgery.

Jc95: I'd love to hear your thoughts on Termarr Johnson (PIT). Even with him heating up the past week, I still expected to see the down arrows....

Yeah, Johnson is a prime example of the limitations of the arrows, especially on this update. With double-digit players graduating ahead of him, he ended up not falling enough for the arrows to show up, but he "deserved" to have a down arrow. 

Johnson's youth and pedigree are doing a lot of the lifting with his ranking. It seems like he could really benefit from a new approach at the plate -- I'd like to see him be more aggressive -- and with certain prospects I try to be a bit more patient than others, but he'll probably have at least one down arrow on the post-draft update unless he really turns things around.

Michael O'Brien: How do you incorporate injuries into your rankings? Ronny Mauricio (NYM) has double up arrows while Chase DeLauter (CLE) has double down arrows. Was it more about DeLauter's performance before the injury? The fact it's a repeat injury? And why the bump for Mauricio?

I tried to hint at this big drop for DeLauter on podcasts and radio ahead of time, and specifically I want to make it clear that his injury is the big problem, not his Double-A numbers. For the 6-foot-4, 235-pound DeLauter, here's the full list of injuries to his left leg/foot:

• Broke his left foot during junior year at James Madison in 2022
• Had surgery in February 2023 for a broken fifth toe on his left foot
• Suffered a left ankle sprain in July of 2023
• Broke his fifth toe on his left foot again in May 2024

Maybe he is able to just put it all behind him, but at this point I think it'd be foolish to assume he'll stop suffering injuries to this part of his body, especially given his size and position. If you don't really care about past injuries with regard to player valuations, then this is a prime opportunity to buy DeLauter from more risk-averse managers.

As for Mauricio, he doesn't have any of the past durability issues of DeLauter and is a very safe asset between now and spring training next year. He can't really hurt his value barring a PED or off-field suspension or an injury during his rehab, and the closer we get to 2025 Opening Day, the closer we are to being able to plug him in to active lineups. He's the exact type of prospect who benefits from the May update/graduations.

Chief Eth: Yilber Diaz (ARI) was the highest new addition. Was this because you now believe he has starter potential after adding a third pitch?

Steven Hemke: Can you talk a little about the arsenal Yilber Diaz (ARI) possesses? Jumping right into the top 100 is no small feat, for a pitcher no less...

It's all about the control gains with Diaz (14.1 BB% in 2023, 10.0 BB% this year). He's still going to lean heavily on his fastball/curveball combo while mixing in a slider/cutter and the occasional changeup, but it's the control that I'm focused on, under the assumption that his third pitch will be fine. He went from being a guy I assumed would end up as a high-leverage reliever before the season to being a guy I could see making it as a Dylan Cease type of high-strikeout, higher-WHIP starting pitcher. If the walk rate spikes again though, it'll look like I pushed him too high, but there's an argument Diaz has been the most dominant pitcher at Double-A this year. Even if Diaz doesn't make it as a starter, this improved control would make him a slam dunk closer and possibly a top-five overall fantasy closer, so there's several ways this could work out well for dynasty managers.

Mookie666: The update is telling me to drop Ian Seymour (TB) for Hunter Barco (PIT). Is there something beyond surface stats that is anti-Seymour or pro-Barco?

Beware the old-for-the-level southpaw who relies heavily on his changeup to put up good minor-league numbers. Seymour is a 25-year-old southpaw with a 90-mph fastball at Double-A and 161.2 pro innings under his belt and Barco is a 23-year-old southpaw with a 93-mph fastball and 55.2 pro innings under his belt, and the bump to Double-A should be coming soon. Seymour's changeup is great, and his fastball and cutter both have good characteristics, but it's hard to project more than a No. 4 starter role for Seymour given his velocity and age. Barco was recovering from Tommy John surgery when the Pirates selected him with the 44th overall pick in 2022, and I love what I've seen early this season.

Etzel BFF: Wondering about Filippo Di Turi (MIL), anything there from your perspective?

Di Turi was literally the last guy I left off the initial update, so this wasn't a Caleb Durin situation, although he was just Arizona Complex League player of the week, so if I'd done the update a few days later, he may have been in the 200s. My assumption with Di Turri entering the year was that he'd trend toward being a utility infielder who commands the zone and does little else notable for fantasy -- the Brewers always seem to collect these types -- but he's obviously been performing at a level or two above that. The speed and raw power aren't great, to my knowledge, so he needs to be a plus hitter whose hit tool unlocks 20-homer power.

Camposite: Did the prospect update come out at the most unfavorable possible time for Adael Amador (COL)? 

Yes, although it's a testament to how bad he was early in the season that he's hit four home runs in his last eight games and is still slugging .264 with a 19.8 percent hard-hit rate on the year. I didn't have a ton of conviction in Amador's eventual game power, as I've comped his upside in the past to Rockies DJ LeMahieu, so when he was showing zero power early, there was a little confirmation bias going on. 

Masebot_33: I know the Rockies have no reason to rush, but does the Jordan Beck injury speed up the ETA for Yanquiel Fernandez, or still 2025 at the earliest if everything clicks?

I don't think so. They rushed Beck to the big leagues because they really like him, but they assigned Fernandez to Double-A because he has plenty of development left, and while there are encouraging signs (K% down to 22.5 from 32.9), he's been below league average (90 wRC+). Like you said, they don't have any reason to rush him, and the last thing they'd want is for him to come up and be overmatched, which is what I'd expect.

Mookie666: Your old flame Pedro Leon's (HOU) stats look much better this year yet he doesn't crack the top 400; is this a 'we are never never ever getting back together situation?'

I don't have any players where I'm just never going to give them a second look, but when it's a player's fourth year at Triple-A and it's their age-26 season, the expectation should be that they're producing. This is kind of a textbook Quad-A hitter case until proven otherwise, and the biggest knock on Leon for a while is that he doesn't have a defensive home. I'd actually still have had him ranked if he'd been getting graded as an above-average or plus defender, but from what I've heard, he's pretty bad everywhere, despite good speed and arm strength.

David Scott: Jace Avina (NYY) has yet to crack your top 400. Anything in particular you still want to see from him? Turning 21 in June and could make it to Double-A this year. Seems like he has some pop and speed?

He's definitely got pop. I was pretty low on him when he was traded from Milwaukee, so I probably have some catching up to do with my evaluation, and a 68.7 percent contact rate isn't a deal breaker for a 20-year-old at High-A with his caliber of production. Avina is probably just a short-side platoon guy and/or a guy who needs a trade to playing time, but he should probably have made the cut.

Xerson1: What is Felnin Celesten's (SEA) ceiling? And can Ralphy Velazquez (CLE) make the same jump in prospect rankings that Xavier Isaac (TB) made last season?

Celesten is a five-tool shortstop if he develops an above-average hit tool. We know he's got 30-homer potential and 30-steal potential -- he's a 99th percentile baseball athlete -- and so far he's hitting more than I expected in his pro debut. If we get to a point where Celesten is striking out around 20 percent of the time as a 20-year-old at Double-A, he could be the No. 1 overall prospect.

Velazquez could eventually end up in the top 20 like Isaac. I liked Isaac a little more than Velazquez at each stage of their development -- he's got a better body and a slightly more electric bat -- but Velazquez might end up with the better hit tool and plus power compared to Isaac's 70-grade power.

Dave McDonald: Any Guardians prospects that have taken a big step forward or backward this season?

Ralphy Velazquez, Jaison Chourio, Angel Genao, C.J. Kayfus, Alex Mooney, Matt Wilkinson, Doug Nikhazy, Andrew Walters are all trending up. Chase DeLauter's recurring foot/leg issues are the one big negative regarding the Cleveland farm system. 

Genao probably doesn't get enough hype -- he's someone I've added in shallower dynasty leagues this year. He had seven homers in 164 games coming into the year and has six homers in 40 games this season, and power is the big swing skill. He should hit for a high average and provide defensive value with some speed -- so a classic Guardians middle-infield prospect.

Big Goof: Curious to hear your thoughts on C.J. Kayfus (CLE)?

He was a hit-over-power college first baseman and it seems he's mastered the lift and pull strategy to get the most of his raw power (27.8 Hard%). Given that he's a 22-year-old first baseman at High-A, there won't be much forgiveness if he struggles at Double-A, but if he rakes at every stop, he could be a top-50 prospect by the time he graduates.

FriarWorks: What is Juan Brito's (CLE) likely MLB outcome? Utility guy or better?

I'm lukewarm on Brito being more than a utility guy, largely due to his defense. The Guardians always seem to stress quality defense, and that's the worst part of his game (he's just not a great athlete). He may hit enough to be a Jeimer Candelario type of fantasy third baseman, but that's the realistic ceiling.

Keith Schulte: Has Brennen Davis (CHC) had the most non-linear path on your prospect rankings that you can remember? A lot of it has obviously been injury related, but can you think of any other prospects with similar arcs?

Brothersjudd: Is there anything to see there with Brennan Davis (CHC)? Is this, hopefully, finally being healthy and putting things together?

Yeah, maybe the readers can help me out, but I doubt there's anyone I ever had top five who then fell off the list and then got back on the list. 

I wouldn't even say I'm cautiously optimistic, maybe cautiously pessimistic, as his hard-hit and contact rates still aren't great, but his back issues essentially eliminated his power, and now he's able to hit homers again, so that's something. Davis doesn't run anymore, so it's basically three-category upside, as he hasn't hit .260 or better in a full-season league since 2021. Still, he's performing at Triple-A, has significant pedigree, is on the 40-man roster, and it's his age-24 season, so he's not significantly old for the level.

Luke Anderson: I'm seeing a lot of up arrows next to the young arms in the Mets farm system. What are the best-case MLB outcomes for Christian Scott, Blade Tidwell, Brandon Sproat, Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong?

This was the clearest theme of the update -- Mets pitching is back! David Stearns built the Brewers' starting pitching machine and he's doing the same thing with the Mets. The best-case MLB outcomes for all these guys is at least No. 2 starter. When I watch Tidwell, Sproat and McLean, it's just overpowering stuff against overmatched minor-league hitters. Tong is more along the lines of Scott, where his fastball has great movement and could keep ticking up. Of course, something will go wrong with at least one or two of these guys from an injury or command standpoint, but if you go 3-for-5 on those guys then you've got the top three starters of a good rotation.

Poogy: Christian Scott with a huge rise! Can he be an ace?

He can be an ace in the same way guys like Shane Bieber, Aaron Nola and George Kirby have been treated like aces at points of their careers. He's got No. 2/3 starter stuff and No. 1 starter command. 

Pthomae1297: How long until Emmanuel Rodriguez (MIN) gets bumped to Triple-A? Any chance of a late-season cup of coffee?

I'd guess he gets the bump to Triple-A before the end of June. It's not out of the realm of possibility he reaches the majors this year, but for a player with Rodriguez's specific tools, where it's all going to come down to the development of his hit tool, I'd rather bring him up too late than too early. These players aren't all the exact same, but Rodriguez has some similarities with guys like Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien, and all those guys have had significant highs and lows just in the past year. They'll want to keep trying to get the most out of those players too, and Rodriguez doesn't turn 22 until February, so there's nothing wrong with waiting until early next season to give him the call to the majors.

Travis Pastore: The Rays seem to always churn out hyped prospects and I see you have a few pop-up guys in Chandler Simpson, Tre' Morgan and Gary Gill Hill who have climbed up your rankings. Curious your outlook on the three as I know Simpson and Morgan are a little atypical in their makeups...

I love this question because these three are all pretty intriguing/fascinating. 

Obviously, Simpson has been doing his thing for a while, but I added him on this update because I'm starting to be open to the idea that the Rays might actually play him semi-regularly and bet on his speed on the bases providing enough offensive value to make up for his complete lack of power. That's not an archetype of player I typically go after in dynasty leagues, but at a certain point, it's worth it to see where it goes.

Morgan seems like he's on the Yandy Diaz track. His lowest linedrive rate was 24.2 at Single-A last year, and he's had a linedrive rate over 30 percent this year at High-A. Additionally, he's struck out once in 11 High-A games. These are outlier offensive skills that don't guarantee MLB success, but separate Morgan from other corner-infield prospects. I'm really interested to see where the rest of his season goes. Unlike Simpson, Morgan is the type of prospect I tend to add in dynasty leagues earlier than might be necessary. 

Gill Hill received almost $600K in the sixth round last year and doesn't turn 20 until September. He's got a projectable, athletic 6-foot-2 frame that he's already added some good weight to, and he's got a full starter's pitch mix, including a mid-90s fastball that can touch 97 mph. Gill Hill also has a 59.1 percent groundball rate thanks to his cutter and sinker. He's the type of pitching prospect who could be a consensus top-100 guy by season's end if he just stays healthy and keeps doing what he's doing.

J3KDF: Does Brady House (WAS) get more than a cup of coffee this year? When is Hurston Waldrep (ATL) up?

House could get the call in late August to play but not play enough that he exhausts his rookie eligibility. Even so, if you're looking for production this year, I'd look elsewhere. 

Atlanta obviously turned to Spencer Schwellenbach before Waldrep, in part because Schwellenbach is older and is more of a straightforward pitching prospect. Schwellenbach is like a Toyota (or whatever you consider a good, reliable car) and Waldrep is like a Lamborghini. Waldrep is dialed in a Double-A right now, but given his past control issues, it seems like Atlanta is being quite careful with him in their efforts to develop him as a starter. We could see him up sometime this summer, but it won't be easy to predict when he'll come up.

Danny J: Is Jared Serna the next great Yankee second baseman, following in the lineage of Alfonso Soriano, Robinson Cano and Gleyber Torres?

I'm going to go out on a limb and say Serna won't be as good as the three second basemen you mentioned, but I really like what I see from Serna as a power hitter despite his size (listed at 5-foot-7, 168 pounds). His 46.1 percent flyball rate and 50 percent pull rate tell us exactly what he's trying to do, and he's been pretty unlucky on balls in play (.252 BABIP). Some people just aren't into rostering second-base only prospects who are on the older side (Serna turns 22 this weekend and is at High-A), which I understand, but if you're open to that subset, he's as good of a bet as you'll find.

Buck: Why are you lower on Thomas White (MIA) than the rest of the industry?

These are tough questions, because it introduces context I'm not privy to -- (who's higher on him, why are they higher on him, etc...). I was skeptical about White's long-term command and control entering the draft, and while he was definitely better at Single-A this year before getting the bump to High-A, his walk rate was still over 10 percent and he wasn't overly young for the level. If he reprises that same type of control at High-A, he'll keep rising up the rankings (he got a green up arrow on this update). 

Patrick McCulloch: Any thoughts on Kevin McGonigle (DET)? The hit tool might be the only standout skill, but it looks pretty elite. Does he have a profile to develop any power?

I'd have McGonigle a bit higher if I were re-updating today, maybe borderline top 100. It looks like he added some good weight in the offseason, and I think there's more of a chance he'll be a double-digit homer guy than I used to. 

Finny: Roderick Arias (NYY) thought he might have three red arrows, is he the new Cristian Hernandez (CHC)? Sebastian Walcott (TEX) is actually a double up arrow riser — is that mostly age to level?

If we could combine the best Hernandez traits (patient, all-fields approach) and the best Arias traits (physicality, hard contact), we'd have a hell of a prospect. Unfortunately, Hernandez hasn't been able to hit for much power (55.8 percent groundball rate), and Arias has a 57.7 percent contact rate.

Walcott is hitting .262 with a 14:12 K:BB in his last 15 games at High-A, which is really solid when factoring his crazy power/speed upside and the fact he turned 18 during spring training. Maybe he'll slump again and the Ks will spike, but he's got No. 1 overall prospect potential and he hasn't been overmatched lately.

Ryan: Can you compare and contrast Jeremy Rodriguez (NYM) and Jesus Baez (NYM)?

Rodriguez has a much more projectable frame and is a significantly better athlete. Rodriguez is also excelling as a 17-year-old in complex ball while Baez was below league average (71 wRC+) as an 18-year-old in the Florida Complex League last year. Both are having great seasons.

BDiddyXP: Do you think because Max Clark (DET) lacks the power tool it will prevent him from ever being a top-five prospect?

If he never develops average or better power, that will prevent him from being a top-five prospect, but I definitely don't think the door is closed on that happening.

FantasyBaseballGuy: You and a number of prospect analysts are high on Owen Caissie. He hadn't shown much power in Triple-A. What do you see in him that you don't see in someone like Deyvison De Los Santos (ARI)?

I hope I'm not known as a Caissie guy. I think he's fine for what he is, but it's more about the state of the minors that he's a top-40 prospect than me loving him. He's producing at Triple-A as a 21-year-old, and we know there's massive power in there, he just hasn't tapped into it much this year. One big difference between Caissie and De Los Santos is that Caissie could offer defensive value in the outfield, and De Los Santos projects as a designated hitter. Caissie is also a much more patient hitter, and De Los Santos is the type who could really get exposed either against Triple-A or MLB pitching.

Mike P: Thoughts on Brailer Guerrero (TB)?

His body is much better than his listed height/weight (6-foot-1, 215 pounds). He's an actual athlete out there, and we already knew the bat was the carrying tool. He's one of the youngest players in the Florida Complex League and the early results have been excellent. Definitely add him if he's available still in any dynasty leagues.