This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
The last card of the year is stuffed to the gills with opportunities for bettors and DFS players alike, and I will visit all 13 fights on this card, alerting prospective players to the best shots to take across five platforms. This includes another crack at one of the biggest dogs on the slate, as well as a definitive take on a closely-lined main event. Our betting line this week come from William Hill and is accurate as to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Arman Tsarukyan ($8,900)
Tsarukyan's ability to seamlessly blend his striking and grappling will make things tough for Damir Ismagulov, who is a slick striker, but can sometimes get flatfooted inside the cage. I expect "Ahalkalakets" to use his speed and athleticism to stay a step ahead at every juncture while he racks up points with his boxing and takedowns."Qazaq" likes to let the fight develop before picking apart his opponent, which is a luxury he will not have here.
Jake Matthews ($9,200)
Matthews' hands looked so sharp in his knockout win against Andre Fialho that one might assume his wrestling would remain an afterthought for the foreseeable future. He will face a different sort of opponent in Matthew Semelsberger, who will attempt to push the pace and use his height and reach advantage to land big, powerful strikes. Matthews may have a technical advantage on the feet, but I doubt he will want to brawl in the pocket with someone like " Semi The Jedi" when he could take the path of least resistance and ground a dangerous opponent.
Bobby Green ($7,600)
Those of us who extol the virtues of Green are usually quick to point out his underrated wrestling, which has allowed him to take over bouts against fighters like Clay Guida and Alan Patrick. Add in high-volume, fast-paced striking, and you get a tough test for Drew Dober, who is hittable and has struggled with wrestling defense in the past. These two should be able to create a few memorable exchanges at range, but I expect Green to be a bit sharper everywhere, while using his elusive defense to mitigate the damage from the powerful Dober.
Cody Brundage ($6,800)
The fact that Brundage is a late replacement isn't a good enough justification for the gap in the betting line here, as Michal Oleksiejczuk has struggled with wrestlers throughout his UFC career. The speed and power of "Hussar" should play just fine at middleweight, but his 50 percent takedown defense rate represents a real problem against Brundage, who has only suffered one loss by KO/TKO in 10 professional fights.
Rafa Garcia ($8,400)
Hayisaer Maheshate's power and ability to cut angles made quick work of Steve Garcia in his UFC debut, but Rafa's agility and ability to wrestle should pay dividends against the lanky boxer, who stands heavy on his lead leg. Garcia has shown himself to be incredibly tough, and I don't expect that his gas tank will be an issue against an opponent who is content to let the fight come to him.
Plays to Consider on SuperDraft
Amir Albazi – 2.05X Multiplier
We can take advantage of a few short-notice replacement attempts to grab Albazi at a nice multiplier here, despite the fact that he enters his fight as a heavy favorite. Alessandro Costa does nice body work and is an active grappler, but the frantic nature of his scrambling should provide openings for Albazi, who is a solid positional grappler and strong wrestler. Costa will attempt to make this fight as chaotic as possible, but that shouldn't be enough to stop an opponent who will carry advantages in every phase of the fight.
Bryan Battle – 2.05X Multiplier
Picking against Rinat Fakhretdinov is never comfortable, as he can use his relentless wrestling to put up big numbers, but he is a bit sloppy once the fight gets to the ground, and Battle's size and length as a grappler should help him keep up in scrambles. Rinat's striking leaves plenty to be desired, and he converted just 5 out of 10 takedown attempts in his bout with Andreas Michailidis, meaning that Battle will have an opportunity to stay on his feet and take the fight over.
Cheyanne Vlismas – 2.05X Multiplier
Outside of a grappling attack she wasn't sure how to deal with, Vlsimas has looked great in the Octagon, using her physicality and pace to overwhelm opponents. That physicality should give her the upper hand against Cory McKenna, who will be looking to get this fight to the ground at the first opportunity. "The Warrior Princess" is an accomplished wrestler in her own right, and should be able to come out on top in grappling exchanges. This would leave McKenna on an island against a cleaner, more powerful striker.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Sergey Morozov OVER 2.0 Takedowns and Julian Erosa UNDER 2.0 Takedowns
Morozov will go to war if the situation calls for it, but there shouldn't be any reason for that against Journey Newson, who has yet to defend a takedown attempt in the Octagon. It should be noted that the sample size is small (3), but the strength and athleticism of Morozov should play well against an opponent who primarily wants to have a boxing match.
We have seen Erosa have success when mixing in his wrestling, but I wouldn't count on that against Alex Caceres, who will use his agility, footwork, and ability to cut angles to stay out of the grasp of his opponents. We should also note that "Bruce Leeroy" holds a solid 64 percent takedown defense rate, and has not been taken down more than once in any of his last five fights.
Plays to Consider on Monkey Knife Fight
Manel Kape UNDER 71.5 Strikes and David Dvorak UNDER 52.5 Strikes
My view of these totals may be a bit different if I didn't think a finish was likely, but Kape's power and athleticism can always end the night early. Realizing this, I believe Dvorak will test "Starboy's" takedown defense. This should result in the two men getting stalled out in 50/50 positions, as Dvorak has yet to complete a takedown in the Octagon in four attempts.
Bets to Consider
Jared Cannonier (-110)
Sean Strickland hasn't exactly fared well when put up against fighters who are more athletic than he is, and Cannonier offers a similarly crisp boxing game with much more power. Strickland showed us in his last fight against Alex Pereira that he won't wrestle even when it is obviously his best path to victory, so I am comfortable with the idea that he will lose a range striking battle over 25 minutes.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC Vegas 66 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
