This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC closes out 2022 with a Fight Night card at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, December 17. In the main event, Jared Cannonier takes on Sean Strickland.
Below I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Lightweight
Arman Tsarukyan (18-3) vs. Damir Ismagulov (24-1)
In the co-main event of UFC Vegas 66, a great lightweight bout goes down between Arman Tsarukyan and Damir Ismagulov. Both have great grappling and scrambling abilities, while their collective striking prowess is underrated.
I think Tsarukyan is the real deal, however. He is extremely hard to hit on the feet, and he averages 2.71 takedowns per 15 minutes. Although getting Ismauglov down is hard, I've been more impressed with Tsarukyan, who should be better everywhere and will be able to control this fight en route to a decision.
UFC Vegas 66 Best Bet: Arman Tsarukyan (-190)
Weight Class: Middleweight
Cody Brundage (8-2) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (17-5)
Cody Brundage is stepping up on short notice and is over a +200 underdog, which I don't understand. Brundage was supposed to face Rodolfo Vieira in November, so he was in camp, and he also cornered Dustin Jacoby when he beat Oleksiejczuk earlier this year.
The big reason why I like Brundage is due to his grappling abilities, as he's averaging 1.81 takedowns per 15 minutes, and I expect even more of that here. Meanwhile, Oleksiejczuk has a takedown defense of just 50 percent.
The Pole does hit hard and can catch Brundage, but I thought Brundage would be a +150 underdog. So, with him being at +230, I have to take the shot. He should be able to out-wrestle Oleksiejczuk and even get a submission win.
UFC Vegas 66 Best Bet: Cody Brundage (+230)
Weight Class: Flyweight
Amir Albazi (15-1) vs. Alessandro Costa (12-2)
This is a total mismatch, as Alessandro Costa is stepping up on short notice to make his debut against Amir Albazi, a top-10 flyweight who looks like the real deal.
Albazi is better everywhere than Costa, and he should have his way with the Brazilian. Albazi lands 3.79 significant strikes per minute and 3.09 takedowns per 15 minutes with a takedown accuracy of 62 percent.
Castro could be good in the future, but this is a terrible matchup for him on short notice. The odds agree, as Albazi is above a -400 favorite. Although I do think he wins by submission, I'll just take Albazi to win by stoppage.
UFC Vegas 66 Best Bet: Amir Albazi ITD (-135)
Weight Class: Welterweight & Bantamweight
Jake Matthews (18-5) vs. Matthew Semelsberger (10-4)
Sergey Morozov (18-5) vs. Journey Newson (10-3)
For my parlay, I'm taking Jake Matthews and Sergey Morozov to get their hands raised Saturday night.
Matthews pulled off the upset earlier this year, as he beat Andre Fialho. I was on Matthews as the dog, and he showed off his improved striking. Yet, his wrestling will be the difference here, as he averages 1.85 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Semelsberger has a takedown defense of 63 percent. On the feet, Semelsberger also has bad striking defense, so even if Matthews doesn't get it to the mat, his volume on the feet will win him rounds.
Opening up the card is a bantamweight bout, and I like Morozov to beat Journey Newson. Newson has yet to stuff a takedown in the UFC, as he's 0-5, and that is a problem aginst Morozov. I expect Morozov to take Newson down at will and likely get a ground-and-pound TKO to cash the parlay.
UFC Vegas 66 Best Bet: Jake Matthews & Sergey Morozov (-112)
UFC Vegas 66 Best Bets:
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC Vegas 66 event:
- Arman Tsarukyan (-190)
- Cody Brundage (+230)
- Amir Albazi ITD (-135)
- Jake Matthews & Sergey Morozov (-112)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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