Saturday's 14-fight card from Canada is unique in that it includes two five-round contests without a title being at stake. This gives us even more action to analyze and break down across three platforms. As always, we look at each bout in the jam-packed slate, including the heavyweight knockout king and a ferocious hometown fighter who is once again positioned as the underdog. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Chad Anheliger ($7,500)
As with the last time we (correctly) selected Anheliger, he comes in as a significant underdog against Cody Gibson. I'm not sure what the oddsmakers have against the Canadian, as his constant pressure, blitzing offense, and ability to wrestle should see him pick up more than a few wins at the bottom half of this division. That would describe the space occupied by Cody Gibson, whose only organizational win in the last decade came against a fighter in Brian Kelleher, who is notoriously vulnerable early in bouts.
Youssef Zalal ($9,100)
Jack Shore is another fighter who likes to dictate fights with pace, pressure, and grappling. Unfortunately for the Welshman, however, he has reached a crop of competitors where more is required. We saw this in his bout with Joanderson Brito, as the Brazilian never let Shore off the back foot, which made it impossible to get his game going. While Zalal doesn't have such suffocating pressure, he will back his opponent to the fence and has the agility and command of range to keep himself safe from both strikes and takedown attempts.
Rodrigo Nascimento ($8,300)
A win over Blagoy Ivanov in 2023 only added to my concerns for Alexandr Romanov, as the man who previously looked to dominate fights with his wrestling spent most of the contest trying to win kickboxing exchanges. While I don't expect Nascimento to bulldoze the Russian in the style of Jailton Almeida, his fast hands and crisp kickboxing should be more than enough to win in space, while the grappling of Nascimento should quell any fears of his opponent returning to form. We've seen how quickly Romanov can get tired if he's unable to get his takedowns, which could lead to a much bigger score than anticipated.
Derrick Lewis ($7,600)
It's not often you'll find Lewis in the DraftKings section of this article series, but the former title challenger has looked to use his wrestling often of late, scoring a takedown in his last bout and attempting several takedowns against the aforementioned Jailton Almeida in 2023. Lewis has been an absolute terror in top position when given the opportunity, and lifelong kickboxer Jhonata Diniz was taken down and controlled in the first round of his debut bout with Austen Lane.
Mike Malott ($9,200)
Mallott fell into the classic trap of not realizing how difficult veteran Neil Magny can be to put away, leading to exhaustion and his first loss in the organization. Nothing in that fight should make prospective owners worry about Trevin Giles, who has shown something of a glass jaw and has been taken down five times in his last three fights. Finishes have accounted for all six of Giles' UFC losses (three by KO/TKO, three by submission) which portends a big score for "Proper."
Jasmine Jasudavicius ($9,000)
Size and strength alone should be enough for Jasudavicius in this one, as Ariane Lipski is an aggressive but sloppy kickboxer who cannot help but fall into grappling exchanges. Though she may need to weather a storm early, expect Jasudavicius to find her way into the clinch and dominate, as Lipski is coming off of a performance in which Karine Silva grounded her five times.
Amir Albazi ($7,600)
I see Albazi as a step ahead of Brandon Moreno almost everywhere at this point in their respective careers, most crucially when it comes to boxing and submission grappling. While this should be an entertaining five-round scrap, the former champion looked absolutely lost in his most recent bout against Brandon Royval in kickboxing range, and I don't like Moreno's chances to keep up with Albazi in scrambles on the ground.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Jamey-Lyn Horth OVER 49.5 Significant Strikes, Serhiy Sidey OVER 64.5 Significant Strikes, and Rose Namajunas UNDER 94.5 Significant Strikes
Ivana Petrovic will look to get this fight to the ground at every opportunity, but Horth's length and frame has resulted in a 70 percent takedown defense rate in her first two UFC fights. I think the Canadian fighter uses her attributes to stay upright and off the fence here, forcing a kickboxing match that helps us clear this total.
In Sidey and Garrett Armfield, we have two men who have landed over five significant strikes per minute in their seven combined UFC (and UFC-adjacent) fights. It is also worth noting that neither man has landed a takedown in that span. This should be enough reason to select the over here, but the cherry on top is that Sidey and Armfield have seen the scorecards via defeat all but three times in 26 collective bouts.
Namajunas' commitment to sticking and moving is usually enough to keep her below the century mark, even in five-round affairs. This becomes a far greater possibility when considering that her opponent is a grappling specialist in Erin Blanchfield. While it is true that "Cold Blooded" put up a hefty strike total when forced to stand in her matchup with Manon Fiorot, this should make her redouble her efforts to get the fight to the ground as Rose will not be as available to be hit.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Marc-Andre Barriault OVER 13.5 Minutes Of Fight Time, and Caio Machado Over 10 Minutes of Fight Time
Barriault's aggressive, grinding style has proven difficult to deal with for all but the biggest punchers in the division. This is good news regarding our total, as Dustin Stoltzfus counts just two KO/TKOs among his 15 wins. "Powerbar" can finish, but the durability of his opponent should ensure that we get close to the cards in this one.
I described Machado as a volume-based heavyweight ahead of his last fight against Don'Tale Mayes, and that proved to be prophetic, as he landed 76 significant strikes in a decision loss. Brendson Ribeiro swings big in the pocket, but I trust Machado to keep himself safe at distance and ride out the rounds if the fight hits the floor.
Bets to Consider
Aiemann Zahabi Wins via Decision (+118)
For as much as MMA fans love the spirit of Pedro Munhoz, it's safe to say he is aging out of the bantamweight division, as "The Young Punisher" has gotten his hand raised just once in his last six fights. Zahabi is far from a perfect fighter, but his athleticism and boxing should be enough to take home the decision win, with Munhoz having never been finished in 29 professional fights.
Charles Jourdain vs. Victor Henry Fight Does not go to Decision (+200)
Both fight outcome props can be had at the same price, which makes me curious. Firstly, because these two men have 27 finishes between them. Even if that were not the case, the frantic fighting styles of each competitor ensure that plenty of hard strikes will be thrown in space, as they have shown they are not afraid to brawl in the pocket. Though both men have been hard to put away, with just two stoppage losses (both belonging to Jourdain) on their collective resumes, styles make fights, and this one will likely be nonstop action until someone falls.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our UFC Edmonton Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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