This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC heads to Jacksonville, Florida for UFC on ABC 5 on Saturday afternoon, as the promotion returns to a national audience. The main event features ranked featherweights throwing down, as Josh Emmett takes on Ilia Topuria.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop, and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Welterweight
Neil Magny (27-10) vs. Phil Rowe (10-3)
Neil Magny and Phil Rowe are very similar fighters, as both are long and lanky and are used to having a sizable reach advantage, but that won't be the case here.
Magny is a gatekeeper of the top-15, and if you beat him you are a top-10 guy, but if you aren't on that level, he wins with ease. That is what I expect here.
Rowe does have KO power, but his level of competition is a concern. His takedown defense is also a worry, as Jason Witt was able to out-grapple him before Rowe got the KO. Magny is pretty durable, and I expect the ranked welterweight to use his wrestling advantage to grind Rowe against the fence and get the odd takedown to edge out a decision.
UFC Jacksonville Best Bet: Neil Magny (-165)
Weight Class: Women's Flyweight
Maycee Barber (12-2) vs. Amanda Ribas (11-3)
In the co-main event, Maycee Barber takes on Amanda Ribas, and the Brazilian is a sizable betting favorite which I am surprised by.
Barber's struggles have made it clear she hasn't lived up to the hype, but I actually like this matchup here for her. Ribas is a natural strawweight who is fighting at flyweight, so I expect Barber to have the strength advantage here.
Additionally, the way Ribas wins fights is by her grappling and getting the opponent to the mat. Yet, with Barber being the stronger fighter, I think she will be able to keep this standing and keep Ribas off of her.
On the feet, Barber is the more powerful striker. Ribas' chin is still a concern, as we saw Marina Rodriguez knock her out, and on the regional scene, Polyana Viana knocked her out. Although Barber hasn't shown off the KO power in the UFC, I do think there is a chance she can catch Ribas here.
Ultimately, I like Barber to just keep this fight standing and land the better strikes to win the fight.
UFC Jacksonville Best Bet: Maycee Barber (+165)
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Justin Tafa (6-3) vs. Austen Lane (12-3)
On the main card, we have a heavyweight scrap that likely won't last long, as Justin Tafa takes on Austen Lane.
Tafa is coming off a first-round KO over Parker Porter, who is durable and has taken some heavy shots. Lane, meanwhile, was KO'd by Greg Hardy on the Contender Series, and all three of his losses are by first-round KO. A few have came to much lesser competition, as Frank Tate -- who was 5-5 at the time -- knocked him out, as did 7-4 Vernon Lewis.
I just don't trust Lane's chin, and although he is on a lengthy winning streak, he hasn't faced a power punched like Tafa in quite some time. I expect Lane to reach for something and Tafa to counter and KO him, similar to what he did to Parker Porter.
UFC Jacksonville Best Bet: Justin Tafa by KO/TKO/DQ (-125)
Weight Classes: Flyweight & Featherweight
Tatsuro Taira (13-0) vs. Kleydson Rodrigues (8-2)
Ilia Topuria (13-0) vs. Josh Emmett (18-3)
For my parlay, I'm backing Tatsuro Taira and Ilia Topuria to get their hands raised Saturday afternoon.
Taira is arguably the best flyweight prospect in the UFC, and the promotion is building him correctly. Taira is 3-0 with the company and is coming off back-to-back stoppage wins over Jesus Aguilar and C.J. Vergara (who already beat Rodrigues).
Rodrigues is coming off a 59-second knockout win over Shannon Ross last time out, but I don't think Ross is UFC-caliber. Meanwhile, Taira is very hard to hit and possesses above-average grappling. I think the latter will be the difference, as I expect the Japanese flyweight to take Rodrigues down and eventually sink in a submission.
The other leg is the main event, as I'm backing Topuria to beat Josh Emmett, as I believe the American is coming back from his lopsided loss to Yair Rodriguez too soon.
Topuria is a well-rounded fighter who has legitimate one-punch KO power and great submissions. Although Emmett can finish anyone with one punch, I think Topuria will be the faster fighter here. He will land the big shot first, which will allow him to drop Emmett and submit him -- similar to what Yair Rodriguez did -- and get the biggest win of his career.
I still worry about Emmett's chin, as he cuts a lot of weight and is already coming back after getting dropped and rocked by Rodriguez.
UFC Jacksonville Best Bet: Tatsuro Taira & Ilia Topuria parlay (-120)
UFC Jacksonville Best Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC Jacksonville best bets:
- Neil Magny (-165)
- Maycee Barber (+165)
- Justin Tafa by KO/TKO/DW (-125)
- Tatsuro Taira and Ilia Topuria parlay (-120)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
If you're in Ohio where legal betting just launched, check out Ohio sports betting promos. Sports betting is also officially live in the state of Massachusetts. To get the most bang for your buck when selecting a sportsbook as a new customer, check out these Massachusetts Sports Betting Promos.
