This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 286 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Juliana Miller (3-1-0) v. Veronica Hardy (6-4-1)
Juliana Miller - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 66" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 3 wins
Veronica Hardy - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 64" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 3 finishes in 3 wins
DFS Perspective: Hardy, formerly Macedo, is 1-4 in the UFC, and I expect this fight to go similarly to the four losses than the one win. Miller is still green when it comes to MMA, but she has looked every bit the part so far. She is a fast starter with a game that has rounded out very well. I expect her to come out hot, looking for takedowns and eventually stopping this fight early. Another high score is likely if she dominates the fight like she should.
UFC 286 Pick: Miller
Jai Herbert (12-4-0) v. L'udovit Klein (19-4-0)
Jai Herbert - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 12 wins
L'udovit Klein - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 72" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: Herbert will boast a significant size advantage, and I think it makes the difference in this fight. Klein is a dangerous striker and kickboxer but must find creative ways to get in on Herbert. Neither guy throws a lot of volume, so we could be looking at a slower-paced, low-scoring decision. I expect Herbert to land the damaging shots and to get the win as a sizable underdog.
UFC 286 Pick: Herbert
Joanne Wood (15-8-0) v. Luana Carolina (8-3-0)
Joanne Wood - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 65" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 6 finishes in 15 wins
Luana Carolina - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 3 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: While Carolina has gone 2-2 over her last four, a case could be made that she actually went 0-4. She is a low-volume striker who offers very little else in the Octagon. Wood has lost three in a row, but those defeats have been to the current champ and two title contenders, making them excellent losses. I expect her to nearly double the output of Carolina and win a unanimous decision.
UFC 286 Pick: Wood
Jake Hadley (9-1-0) v. Malcolm Gordon (14-6-0)
Jake Hadley - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
Malcolm Gordon - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" – Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: Hadley flashed his potential in his latest fight, crushing all expectations on the feet and then recording a second-round submission via triangle choke. Gordon, who has been submitted in two of his five UFC fights, has not flashed much of anything and likely folds early again in this one. I expect Hadley to take control right out of the gate and eventually find the neck for another early finish.
UFC 286 Pick: Hadley
Christian Leroy Duncan (7-0-0) v. Dusko Todorovic (12-3-0)
Christian Leroy Duncan - Height: 6'2" - Reach: N/A - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins
Dusko Todorovic - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 11 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Duncan is making his debut and is a flashy fighter with a solid overall game. Todorovic is a powerful striker who is 3-3 in the UFC and is either kill or be killed. That mentality, coupled with the 17 finishes between the two, makes this a must-play for DFS. Duncan has the better striking and should land something early on the weak chin of Todorovic.
UFC 286 Pick: Duncan
Lerone Murphy (11-0-1) v. Gabriel Santos (10-0-0)
Lerone Murphy - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
Gabriel Santos - Height: 5'9" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a fun fight for as long as it lasts. Murphy is a powerful striker and should have the edge on the feet. Santos is making his debut on short notice and should carry an advantage on the mat. Murphy has been susceptible to getting taken down but has shown excellent grappling to avoid getting submitted or controlled. Santos has solid striking, but it is mainly power shots that are often countered. If Santos had a full fight camp, I would be more inclined to consider him. However, I expect Murphy's experience to shine.
UFC 286 Pick: Murphy
Muhammad Mokaev (8-0-0) v. Jafel Filho (14-2-0)
Muhammad Mokaev - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
Jafel Filho - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Filho is a call-up from the Contender Series and has an exciting game. However, he draws arguably one of the most exciting prospects in Mokaev. Mokaev has done nothing but impress since his debut, and I expect it to continue here. I would not completely rule Filho out, as he is the better striker, but it is tough to strike if someone is smothering you with takedowns and control.
UFC 286 Pick: Mokaev
Sam Patterson (10-1-1) v. Yanal Ashmoz (6-0-0)
Sam Patterson - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 78" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 10 wins
Yanal Ashmoz - Height: 5'9" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: This is the fight I have the most questions about. Both guys are making their UFC debuts. Patterson is huge for the division and should have a slight edge anywhere the fight goes. However, Ashmoz has just as many ways to win and should not be counted out. I have very little confidence in this pick, but I like the size difference from Patterson.
UFC 286 Pick: Patterson
Chris Duncan (9-1-0) v. Omar Morales (11-3-0)
Chris Duncan - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 9 wins
Omar Morales - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Morales is taking this fight on short notice and has lost three of his last four fights in the UFC. Duncan, making his debut fresh off of the Contender Series, is a dangerous, well-rounded striker with significant power. The odds should be flipped in this fight, as Duncan is fighting on a full camp and is the more dangerous of the two. I expect him to come out early with forward pressure and eventually find a knockout.
UFC 286 Pick: Duncan
Jack Shore (16-1-0) v. Makwan Amirkhani (17-8-0)
Jack Shore - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 16 wins
Makwan Amirkhani - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: Shore lost a tough one for his first UFC defeat last time out, while Amirkhani has lost four of his last five. Amikhani typically looks for takedowns and control/submissions and has little to his stand-up game. Shore is by far the more complete fighter, being dangerous everywhere, and should win this fight. I expect him to dictate where the fight goes and navigate to an eventual finish.
UFC 286 Pick: Shore
Marvin Vettori (18-5-1) v. Roman Dolidze (12-1-0)
Marvin Vettori - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 11 finishes in 18 wins
Roman Dolidze - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: I am torn on this fight. If Vettori can find success with takedowns, he should control his way to a decision. He likely also puts out more volume, but it will be Dolidze who has the power advantage. Vettori has fought some of the best in the division and is still just 29 years of age. Dolidze has been a late bloomer, as he is now 34, but it is difficult to stop a train that is full-steam ahead. My slight lean is Dolidze, as I think the majority of the fight stays on the feet, and he lands flush more than once.
UFC 286 Pick: Dolidze
Jennifer Maia (20-9-1) v. Casey O'Neill (9-0-0)
Jennifer Maia - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 64" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 20 wins
Casey O'Neill - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: King Casey is back in action after just over a year off from a knee injury. While those injuries can be worrisome, I fully expect to see the same O'Neil we have seen since she made her debut. Maia plays somewhat of a gatekeeper role now but looked impressive in her most recent win in November. That said, I expect the pressure and constant swarming from O'Neil to be too much for her. Therefore, another early finish from O'Neil is likely.
UFC 286 Pick: O'Neil
Gunnar Nelson (18-5-1) v. Bryan Barberena (18-9-0)
Gunnar Nelson - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" - Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 18 wins
Bryan Barberena - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 72" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling
~ 13 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: Barberena is a dog and is never in a boring fight. He will have a slight advantage on the feet, but I do not expect it to be there for long. Nelson will look early and often for takedowns and eventually submit Barberena.
UFC 286 Pick: Nelson
Justin Gaethje (23-4-0) v. Rafael Fiziev (12-1-0)
Justin Gaethje - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 20 finishes in 23 wins
Rafael Fiziev - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: This has Fight of the Night written all over it. I expect this to be 15 minutes of incredible striking. Fiziev is the more technical striker, while Gaethje has better pressure and more volume. While either guy could inevitably find a knockout, it is more likely that it goes to a decision, where I would favor Gaethje with volume and experience.
UFC 286 Pick: Gaethje
Leon Edwards (20-3-0) v. Kamaru Usman (20-2-0)
Leon Edwards - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 20 wins
Kamaru Usman - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 76" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: The trilogy fight between these two should be a classic. Edwards is home and fighting with an absurd amount of confidence after finding a last-second knockout over Usman in their last fight. There are always concerns with immediate rematches, especially after a knockout. If Usman is in the right headspace, I think we see a repeat of rounds two through four of their previous fight. If Usman has any hesitations or limitations, Edwards will win again. I expect Usman to come out hungry and with the right mindset to get his belt back.
UFC 286 Pick: Usman
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC 286 DraftKings preview, or play around with your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
