This article is part of our DFS NFL series.
Week 3 will kick off with an intriguing matchup between the NFC North rival Lions and Packers. Both enter 2-1 and the winner will walk away with an early lead in the division. The Lions are a road favorite in most books, with an implied total of 23.75 points while the Packers are at 22.25. The line could move significantly based on injury news regarding Aaron Jones (hamstring) and Christian Watson (hamstring), and there will be plenty more on that duo soon.
Briefly, for those new to showdown slates, both FanDuel and DraftKings offer single-game contests for Thursday, Sunday and Monday night games, albeit with different setups. FanDuel rosters consist of five players of any position. There is one "MVP" slot, which earns a 1.5 multiplier. The MVP costs the same as the four other flex spots on the roster. The total budget is $60,000, leaving an average of $12,000 per player.
On DraftKings, the "Captain" spot on the roster receives the same multiplier, though the salary also increases. That creates more incentive to get creative and take risks in the captain spot, both to save cap and create different roster builds than will be typical for the rest of the field. There are six roster spots to fill on DK, with five FLEX in addition to the Captain. The salary cap is $50,000, leaving $8,333 per roster spot.
Quarterback
This will be the most straightforward position to break down, as there are basically no contingencies needed to evaluate Jared Goff ($10,400 DK, $15,500 FD) and Jordan Love ($9,800 DK, $16,000 FD). As has been the case on many showdown slates, the sites handle pricing at the position quite differently. On FD, Love is the most expensive overall player with Goff checking in next. On DK, Goff is the third-most expensive player with Love immediately behind him.
Starting with Goff, he immediately gets a bump down anytime he steps away from Ford Field. That's typically a dangerous path of analysis, but he has only 12 touchdowns in 14 games on the road in two seasons with Detroit. At home, he has 36 TDS in 17 games. The Packers are mostly a league-average matchup, though they've allowed only three passing touchdowns in three games — another strike against Goff.
Love has averaged 22.9 fantasy points per game early this season, which immediately suggests that he's a good value. That's not necessarily false, but it's worth pointing out that he has three total touchdowns in each of his last two games yet produced only 20.34 and 23 points. He's stepped up to make big plays as needed, but there's still inconsistency there. Given that Love is at home against a mediocre Detroit secondary, he remains a decent option despite some of the shortcomings in his statistical profile.
Running Back
Now we hit a lot of uncertainty. For the Lions, David Montgomery ($6,800 DK, $12,500 FD) is questionable due to a thigh injury. He turned in multiple limited practices, so he has at least some chance of playing. Prior to suffering the injury in Week 2, he had strong usage that amounted to 37 carries for 141 yards and two rushing scores. Assuming he is healthy enough to play at close to full strength, we should project him to lead the Lions' backfield on the ground but without much involvement as a receiver. Due to his production profile, Montgomery is a better fit on FD, though he's relatively much cheaper on DK, keeping him in consideration.
As could be expected, Jahmyr Gibbs ($9,600 DK, $12,000 FD) has the opposite profile to Montgomery when both backs are active. He saw nine targets in Week 2, then took over a more traditional workhorse role with Montgomery out in Week 3. Gibbs has yet to show much in terms of explosive plays, but we know he's capable and that he has a role. If Montgomery is out, Gibbs is playable on both sites. If Montgomery is in, I will limit my interest to DK, but his price makes him tough on that site as well.
If Montgomery is out, Craig Reynolds ($2,800 DK, $7,000 FD) is at least worth mentioning. He saw only four carries in Week 3 (with Montgomery sidelined) and split work with Zonovan Knight ($1,000 DK, $6,000 FD), leaving both useless for fantasy purposes.
The situation is perhaps slightly clearer in Green Bay. Aaron Jones ($10,800 DK, $13,500 FD) is expected back. Watch pregame notes for any suggestion he won't be able to handle a full workload, but otherwise, he's among the top plays of the night. Unlike the Detroit backs, Jones has a strong role as both a rusher and receiver. His Week 1 performance against Chicago might turn out to be an outlier due to the matchup, but he'll get the workload.
AJ Dillon ($7,000 DK, $11,000 FD) was disappointing in his chance as the lead back for the Packers in the absence of Jones. He remains priced up due to the possibility early in the week that Jones didn't play, making it a difficult sell to roster him. Patrick Taylor ($3,000 DK, $6,000 FD) has had some involvement as a pass catcher (five targets in two games), so if Jones is a surprise inactive, Taylor could become a punt option.
In terms of matchup, the Lions are a strong run defense and the Packers have been mediocre. Neither would be enough to deter me from playing otherwise strong options.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($11,600 DK, $14,000 FD) has the safest floor in the game. He has a minimum of seven targets, six receptions and 71 yards in three games this season. His profile sets up for more of a floor than ceiling outcome, but his role in the offense is as locked in as anyone.
The next best pass catcher in Detroit is tight end Sam LaPorta ($8,000 DK, $10,000 FD). He will be popular due to his breakout performance in Week 3, but his role has been consistently excellent. He has run the second-most routes on the team and has the highest target per route ran rate (29.7). His price hasn't caught up to those numbers yet.
Both LaPorta and St. Brown work closely to the line of scrimmage, while Josh Reynolds ($6,200 DK, $9,500 FD) is the deep threat. He's a part-time player, split with Kalif Raymond ($5,200 DK, $8,500), who is also a deep threat in the offense. Reynolds is on the field slightly more, which is offset by the price difference between the duo. Both are boom/bust options, with Raymond claiming more of the production lately.
We're back to uncertainty as we flip to the opposite side of this game. Christian Watson ($8,200 DK, $11,500 FD) has yet to play this season due to a hamstring injury, but he is reportedly likely to play. He comes at a relative discount, but projecting a full workload might be overly optimistic. He can provide big plays so it's possible he pays off regardless, but we have Reynolds and Raymond as cheaper options with potentially the same short-term role. In Watson's absence, Romeo Doubs ($8,800 DK, $10,500 FD) has run the most routes and is tied for the team lead in targets. He's produced well in two of three games, but like Love himself, he's relied heavily on touchdowns to get there. Banking on that to continue is a risk. Like his counterpart at tight end, Luke Musgrave ($6,400 DK, $8,000 FD) has run the second-most routes on the team behind Doubs. His rate of being targeted and efficiency fall behind the top receivers on the roster, but he showed a significant increase in role in Week 3. That could be a precursor of things to come, depending on the health of Watson.
That brings us to Jayden Reed ($5,600 DK, $9,000 FD). He comes at a significant discount compared to Doubs, but his participation in the offense suggests that shouldn't be the case. He has run only eight fewer routes than Dobbs, has more yards per route run than Dobbs and has a higher target per route run rate. The majority of his production came in Week 2 thanks to a two-touchdown performance, but his role suggests there should be more to come.
The depth pass catchers are Dontayvion Wicks ($5,000 DK, $7,500 FD) and Samori Toure ($600 DK, $6,500 FD). Wicks has been on the field more, but neither has been particularly productive and their role is likely to decrease with the return of Watson.
Kickers
Both Anders Carlson ($4,600 DK, $8,000 FD) and Riley Patterson ($4,800 DK, $9,500 FD). Both have been accurate when given opportunity but Carlson has yet to receive multiple attempts in a game and Patterson has done so just once. With a healthy implied total for each team, we can project that to change. With no obvious punt plays, they become decent options.
Defense/Special Teams
Both the Lions ($4,000 DK, $9,000 FD) and Packers ($3,600 DK, $8,500 DS) have had spike weeks, but they've come against Atlanta and Chicago, respectively. Each team's offensive line has performed well in terms of keeping their quarterback clean and each team looks to getting healthier at the skill positions. In other words, it doesn't stand out as a game to target either defense.
