DraftKings NFL: Week 17 DFS Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's slate includes only eight games and most have low totals. Panthers-Buccaneers and Packers-Vikings stand out more than they would otherwise and will be popular spots for game stacks. On a smaller slate like this one, I'd worry more about leverage than I would about correlation or stacking. It's never mandatory to play both sides of a game and that's especially true when most have totals of no more than 40 points. As usual, I've highlighted the top options for cash games and some ideas for tournaments. Good luck.

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EST on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays.

• RB Bucky Irving vs. CAR ($6,700)

Irving has clearly emerged as Tampa Bay's feature back after getting 16 of the 19 rushing attempts and catching three passes last week against Dallas. He's had a standout rookie season, averaging 5.5 yards per carry and the Bucs have a prime matchup against the Panthers. These teams met in Week 13 and Irving had the best game of his career, rushing 25 times for 152 yards and a touchdown while adding three catches for 33 yards. He projects as the top point-per-dollar value on the board.

• WR Brian Thomas vs. TEN ($6,800)

Thomas has looked electric as one of the lone bright spots for Jacksonville this season. He's drawn double-digit targets in four consecutive games and is coming off back-to-back games with 100-plus yards and at least one touchdown. The Jags continue to be short at WR and TE, so the high volume should continue for Thomas, who also has a plus matchup at home against the Titans. I expect him to be one of the most popular WRs in all formats. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Sam Darnold vs. GB ($6,400)

QB Anthony Richardson at NYG ($5,900)

RB Saquon Barkley vs. DAL ($8,600)

RB De'Von Achane at CLE ($7,700)

RB Chuba Hubbard at TB ($7,000)

RB Bucky Irving vs. CAR ($6,700)

RB Aaron Jones vs. GB ($6,200)

WR Justin Jefferson vs. GB ($8,300)

WR Mike Evans vs. CAR ($7,500)

WR Davante Adams at BUF ($7,100)

WR Tyreek Hill at CLE ($6,900)

WR Brian Thomas vs. TEN ($6,800)

WR Malik Nabers vs. IND ($6,600)

WR Jakobi Meyers at NO ($6,000)

WR Adam Thielen at TB ($5,700)

WR Calvin Ridley at JAX ($5,500)

TE T.J. Hockenson vs. GB ($4,500)

TE Jake Ferguson at PHI ($3,700)

TE Payne Durham vs. CAR ($2,900)

D/ST Miami Dolphins at CLE ($3,200)

D/ST Philadelphia Eagles vs. DAL ($3,100)

D/ST Las Vegas Raiders at NO ($2,600)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Carolina Panthers (20.25) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (27.75)

Panthers

Carolina took Tampa Bay to overtime when these teams met four weeks ago. Bryce Young ($5,600) threw for 298 yards and a touchdown and ran for another. He actually has a rushing TD in three of the last four games and ran for 68 yards last week. I wouldn't expect that to be sticky, but it's notable. Regardless, it's a favorable matchup for the Panthers' passing game against the Bucs pass-funnel defense. Adam Thielen ($5,700) had eight catches for 99 yards in the previous meeting and is averaging seven catches over the last four. Xavier Legette ($4,400) is expected back, which takes some of the shine off Jalen Coker ($4,300) as a value option. I'll likely stick to Thielen for single entry and small field, but Legette and Coker are viable in the largest-field GPPs. 

Buccaneers

This is a prime matchup for Tampa Bay and it has the potential to be a smash spot. I mentioned that Bucky Irving ($6,700) had a career day in the previous matchup, with 28 touches for 185 yards and a touchdown. Mike Evans ($7,500) had eight catches on 12 targets for 118 yards and a touchdown. Cade Otton is out, meaning Payne Durham ($2,900) will make his second straight start. He had five catches on seven targets last week. Jalen McMillan ($4,600) has also started to emerge, with 14 catches and four TDs in the last three games. Pairing Baker Mayfield ($6,700) with two of his skill position players would be a simple stack and an easy way to get leverage. 

• Favorite Panthers Stack: QB Young + RB Irving + WR Thielen + WR Evans or WR McMillan
• Favorite Bucs Stack: QB Mayfield +/- RB Irving + WR Thielen + WR Evans or WR McMillan

Green Bay Packers (24.75) at Minnesota Vikings (23.75)

Packers

Green Bay is actually favored on the road against a 13-2 Minnesota team that won the reverse matchup at Lambeau Field in Week 4. That says a lot about how well the Packers have played. The offense has run more through Josh Jacobs ($8,100) than Jordan Love ($6,400) lately. Jacobs has a touchdown in six consecutive games and a total of 10 in that span while Love hasn't reached 20 fantasy points in any of the last five. The one time he went off this season came in the previous matchup against Minnesota when the Vikings went up big at halftime and the Packers were forced to play catchup. It's also tough to stack Love as the Packers have five players he throws to and usually not even volume to go around. Jayden Reed ($5,900) is at least cheaper than he's been. At least he and Christian Watson ($4,900) have the requisite upside to put up a ceiling score with only five or so touches. Romeo Doubs ($5,200) has a couple of two-touchdown games but hasn't scored in any of his other 10 starts. What I'm saying is the Packers' passing game probably needs a specific script and even if you get it, guessing who benefits is tough. It will keep their ownership low across the board, which makes them appealing for tournaments. It Watson is out, that would change quite a bit. Dontayvion Wicks ($3,900) would become relatively popular and the ownership on Reed and Doubs would also increase. 

Vikings

Sam Darnold ($6,400) will rightly be among the most popular QBs. He's had a stellar season from both a real-life and DFS standpoint. He shredded the Packers in Week 4 and might need to do it again if the Vikings stand a chance. Justin Jefferson ($8,300) has been unstoppable and will be licking his chops for this matchup as the Packers remain without Jaire Alexander. Jordan Addison ($6,300) has five TDs in the last five games and topped 30 fantasy points in two. He can be considered a leverage option being that Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson ($4,500) will come in amongst the most popular at their positions. Aaron Jones ($6,200) is also set to be relatively chalky as one of the better mid-range values on the slate. 

• Favorite Packers Stack: QB Love + WR Jefferson or WR Addison + WR Watson or WR Reed
• Favorite Vikings Stack: QB Darnold + WR Jefferson or WR Addison +/- TE Hockenson 

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Josh Allen + WR Davante Adams or WR Garrett Wilson + TE Dalton Kincaid

QB Anthony Richardson + WR Josh Downs or WR Michael Pittman + WR Malik Nabers

QB Tua Tagovailoa + RB De'Von Achane and/or WR Tyreek Hill + TE Jordan Akins

QB Mac Jones + WR Brian Thomas + WR Calvin Ridley or TE Chig Okonkwo

QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson + RB De'Von Achane and/or WR Tyreek Hill + TE Jordan Akins

High-Priced Heroes

• WR Justin Jefferson vs. GB ($8,300)

Jefferson has been on a tear, averaging eight catches for 116 yards in his last three with five touchdowns in that span. The matchup against Green Bay, who remain with top cornerback Jaire Alexander, has shootout potential. Jefferson projects for more points than anyone on the slate besides Josh Allen ($8,500) and that makes sense considering he's put up 35-plus in two of his last three. I'd expect the salary to keep his ownership around 20 percent, reasonable for an eight-game slate.

• RB De'Von Achane at CLE ($7,700)

Achane continues to be the best dual-threat in the league. He has at least six catches in four consecutive games and is coming off his best rushing performance of the season, a 17-carry, 120-yard effort against San Francisco last week. The Dolphins are sizeable road favorites against the Browns in a game that might be played in heavy rain. It's a favorable matchup for Achane, regardless of the conditions. Miami should control the game with Dorian Thompson-Robertson on the other side. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• TE Jake Ferguson at PHI ($3,700)

Ferguson was already underpriced for a player coming off six catches on nine targets. That was before CeeDee Lamb (shoulder) was ruled out. Lamb commands a significant target share and you'd expect some of that to go Ferguson's way. Things look even more favorable with Jalen Hurts (concussion) out. Ferguson should have a safe floor and plenty of upside for a bargain price tag. 

The Bargain Bin

QB Mac Jones vs. TEN ($5,200)

QB Aidan O'Connell at NO ($5,100)

QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson vs. MIA ($4,800)

RB Kendre Miller vs. LV ($5,500)

WR Christian Watson at MIN ($4,900)

WR Jalen McMillan vs. CAR ($4,600)

WR Wan'Dale Robinson vs. IND ($4,400)

WR Jalen Coker at TB ($4,300)

TE Chig Okonkwo at JAX (3,600)

TE Juwan Johnson vs. LV ($3,500)

TE Payne Durham vs. CAR ($2,900)

TE Jordan Akins vs. MIA ($2,700)

Injuries to Monitor

• WR Christian Watson at MIN

Watson missed practice on Friday due to a knee injury and is questionable. If he's out, Dontayvion Wicks ($3,900) would look like decent cheap value on a slate that doesn't offer much. Jayden Reed ($5,900) and Romeo Doubs ($5,200) would also get bumps. 

Weather

• There is potential for heavy rain in Buffalo and Cleveland, conditions that would likely affect the passing games. Check the forecast Sunday if planning to roster any of the QBs or WRs in those spots.