Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: San Francisco vs. Chargers

The Chargers and 49ers were both penciled in on the Super Bowl watch list going into this year, but neither team could have imagined all the unexpected turns that have occurred since. The 49ers might be alright for it – the season-ending injury to quarterback Trey Lance and a downpour of injuries on defense threatened to undo their season and still might, but the addition of Christian McCaffrey at running back has the offense at a new level and brings with that the hope that the 49ers might get healthy enough in time to make a real run at the NFC. The Chargers aren't out of it in the AFC, but it's tough to tell how they're supposed to find a new generator to offset their injury issues, which have been brutal on both offense (Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Rashawn Slater) and defense (Joey Bosa, J.C. Jackson). The Chargers (5-3) have a better record than the 49ers (4-4), but the spread for this game (SF -7.5) expects the two teams to finish this game with the same record. The over/under has fallen from 46.5 to 45.5 while that SF -7.5 initially opened at SF -6. The public mood is evidently souring on the Chargers somewhat.

QUARTERBACKS

Justin Herbert ($10600 DK, $15000 FD) is beyond criticism, especially when he has zero help around him. The Chargers front office wanted to make things a little fairer for opponents and decided to make Herbert play on All Madden mode, apparently, and now he has a couple backups (Josh Palmer and DeAndre Carter) leading the passing game while NFL Europe types like Michael Bandy round out the roster. It's offensive. The good news is that the 49ers are beat up at corner, so there might be ways for Herbert's unreal talent to transcend the situation. Again, though, he's playing on All Madden while the other quarterback plays on easy mode.

Jimmy Garoppolo ($9800 DK, $14000 FD) gets tons of help and could put up numbers against the Chargers' battered defense. Without Joey Bosa and J.C. Jackson the Chargers are significantly weakened, even if Khalil Mack and Derwin James are both monsters (they are). The Chargers offense trends uptempo, too, meaning Garoppolo could get good pass attempt volume even if the 49ers run game gets hot as expected.

RUNNING BACKS

Even with a wide assortment of other tempting skill position stars in this game, Christian McCaffrey ($11600 DK, $17000 FD) is arguably a must-play. Even if McCaffrey proves a must-play, backup and incumbent starter Elijah Mitchell ($200 DK, $6000 FD) could prove the same with his price so low. Mitchell's price basically assumes he's not playing, but Mitchell is worlds better than Tyrion Davis-Price ($1800 DK, $7000 FD), who might not see a touch as long as Mitchell is healthy. Jordan Mason ($200 DK, $6500 FD) is basically in the same boat as TDP.

If not for McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler ($11200 DK, $16500 FD) would arguably be the mandatory must-play on this slate. Ekeler is the closest thing the league has seen to Marshall Faulk, and the Chargers offense categorically cannot function without Ekeler taking an unhealthily-heavy workload. Efficiency is the concern in this setting – the 49ers run defense is stout, and Ekeler could be the primary passing game concern of shutdown linebacker/rover Fred Warner. Ekeler could still catch 10 passes, but the prospect of good per-touch efficiency seems far fetched. Isaiah Spiller ($3000 DK, $7000 FD) becomes interesting if he can send Sony Michel ($4400 DK, $6500 FD) to the bench for good, but it's not clear whether that will happen in this game.

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

Josh Palmer ($7800 DK, $10500 FD) and DeAndre Carter ($5400 DK, $8000 FD) aren't cut out to function as lead receivers, but in this game they'll simply have to. The good news is the 49ers secondary remains beat up, and especially in the slot there might be something to attack. If not those two, then Gerald Everett ($6200 DK, $9000 FD) might need to serve as the closest thing the Chargers have to a WR1. Unfortunately for Everett, that fact might make him the primary assignment of Fred Warner, who erases players far better than Everett with ease. If Everett can avoid Warner, though, he might find some room to cook. Michael Bandy ($2400 DK, $7500 FD) doesn't belong in the NFL and especially not in a meaningful role on offense, but the Chargers got themselves into a situation with no alternative. He needs a coverage breakdown. Tre McKitty ($200 DK, $5000 FD) never did anything at the college or pro level but the Chargers spent a third-round pick on him anyway and now they need to give him between 20 and 30 snaps per game, hopefully for some eventual use. Richard Rodgers ($200 DK, $5000 FD) might be a better tight end bet than McKitty.

Deebo Samuel ($8800 DK, $13500 FD) is back and could make a big impact in this game. The Chargers secondary isn't really made up of tacklers, Derwin James aside, but if James is deployed against Deebo specifically then the Chargers are begging for George Kittle ($7400 DK, $10000 FD) to crush them. Brandon Aiyuk ($8200 DK, $13000 FD) also sets up well here, and of the 49ers' Big Three he's easily the one most likely to make a play downfield. Ray-Ray McCloud ($1200 DK, $8000 FD) shouldn't play much on offense with Deebo and Jauan Jennings ($600 DK, $7500 FD) healthy, but McCloud is a good pairing for the 49ers defense/special teams.

KICKERS

Robbie Gould ($4200 DK, $9000 FD) never had much range and age hasn't helped that, but the reliable accuracy that made him so tenured in the first place remains intact, and that's enough for the 49ers. He could be useful in this game, as the 49ers project to regularly get into scoring range with the run game advantage, but Gould usually doesn't see many field goal opportunities and has just one double-digit fantasy point game so far. Cameron Dicker ($4000 DK) will have to kick for the Chargers, and as an unproven kicker on a heavy underdog he does not conventionally project well. Dicker was a solid kicker in college, though his development might have been stunted somewhat by doubling as Texas' full-time punter.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Jimmy Garoppolo is turnover prone and the Chargers ($3400 DK, $8500 FD) have a few good players (one great) in their secondary, so there's a chance the Chargers defense does something useful. For that to happen, though, it might require a full upset script, because if the 49ers win it probably involved a big day on the ground, and if McCaffrey/Mitchell get hot then the 49ers won't need to throw much, and when they do throw it will be easier than usual with the run threat already established as the defense's primary concern. The 49ers ($4800 DK, $9500 FD) defense carries a better projection as the touchdown favorites, and a big part of that is the absences of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. It's always risky to fade an elite quarterback like Herbert, but Herbert is playing in unfair circumstances and can't be expected to be as effective as he normally is. DeAndre Carter (LAC) and Ray-Ray McCloud (SF) are convenient returner pairings for whichever defense, as they both play on offense (especially Carter, one of LAC's lead receivers) and return both kicks and punts.