Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: New England vs. Miami

The divisional title of the AFC East might be more up for grabs than most assumed before Week 1, with the Bills looking dubious on offense and the Jets losing Aaron Rodgers, so now this primetime showdown between New England and Miami carries higher stakes than previously assumed, too. The Patriots are in greater need of a win after a hard-fought loss to Philadelphia in Week 1, whereas Tua Tagovailoa outdueled Justin Herbert in Los Angeles to bring Miami into this game 1-0.

The Patriots might need all of the homefield advantage they can get to avoid going 0-2, especially with up to 3/5 of their starting offensive line and the top backup at each of guard and tackle out also. The Dolphins looked awful in run defense in Week 1 and might be without star front-seven defender Jaelan Phillips, but an offensive line losing most of its starters and then top two backups might be a uniquely difficult situation. Christian Wilkins in particular is not someone you want to cut loose as an offense.

The over/under is 46.5 as of press time, with the Dolphins favored by three.

QUARTERBACKS

Tua Tagovailoa ($11200 DK, $16500 FD) figures to be fairly popular after a heroic performance against the Chargers secured the win for Miami on the road. It would be difficult to fade him after such a game, especially on a showdown slate, but the matchup is probably more challenging in Foxborough than it was against the melting Chargers defense. The good news is that the Patriots might be without top corner Jonathan Jones (ankle), who in the past had often thwarted Tyreek Hill – probably the only corner to come close to doing so. The Patriots defense remains challenging even without Jones, but that mostly has to do with the pre-snap disguises and pass-rushing threats. No Jones would be big for Hill and Tagovailoa.

Mac Jones ($9000 DK, $15500 FD) is somewhat less impressive than Tagovailoa these days, but even Jones is on something of an upswing after a determined, effective showing in Week 1 against a tough Philadelphia defense in the rain. The Patriots lost, of course – almost everyone who faces the Eagles does – but Jones probably earned more benefit of the doubt for keeping it all together in a game where it would be easy to let everything fall apart instead. The problem for Jones is that it also is easy to have things fall apart when you don't have five of your top seven offensive linemen. The Dolphins run defense is probably more vulnerable than its secondary, too, which might encourage the Patriots to keep the ball on the ground if they can keep the scoreboard under control. If Jones throws a lot it might mean the Patriots fell behind early, and the results might be sketchy even in that event.

RUNNING BACKS

Rhamondre Stevenson ($9400 DK, $14000 FD) went into last week's game with a recent illness that caused him to miss practice time, yet he played 58 snaps against the Eagles. The Patriots' offensive line issues no doubt fall hard on Stevenson, but his pass-catching activity remained strong last week (six catches for 64 yards on six targets) and it might have helped Stevenson's usage share projection when Ezekiel Elliott ($5800 DK, $8000 FD) lost a fumble against the Eagles in Week 1. Not just that, but the Patriots' offensive line issues might be offset somewhat by the probability that the Miami run defense just isn't good, for personnel reasons. Raekwon Davis is too tall to play nose and gets washed aside constantly. Ty Montgomery ($1400 DK, $6500 FD) could also play a small handful of snaps, primarily in passing-down situations, but he only logged seven plays out of 92 against the Eagles in a game where the Patriots immediately fell behind.

Raheem Mostert ($8000 DK, $12000 FD) is the clear RB1 for Miami while Jeff Wilson is out, but he's managing a knee tweak he picked up in Week 1, a game in which he only took 10 carries and two catches. If the Dolphins are going to perform like favorites then they need to be able to control games after establishing the lead, and Mostert can't take the volume to do that if the Dolphins get a lead here. The matchup also looks vaguely difficult – the Patriots did a good job of containing Kenneth Gainwell in Week 1. Salvon Ahmed ($1000 DK, $6500 FD) appears to be the Miami RB2 for now, but from scrimmage there aren't many running backs in the NFL with worse returns for the usage. De'Von Achane ($4600 DK, $5500 FD) is a much better player but coach Mike McDaniel is withholding playing time until Achane demonstrates a certain unspecified something in practice. Often times coaches in these situations need to be forced by desperation to abandon their initial, wrong inclinations. It doesn't seem like McDaniel is there yet for this game. 

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

Tyreek Hill ($12600 DK, $17000 FD) historically has struggled against Jonathan Jones, but with Jones out or limited it's looking like a surprisingly good matchup for Hill. Jones is an almost perfect trait-match to Hill – short but extremely fast – so it makes sense that Hill would struggle against Jones previously, just as it makes sense that Hill would be wheels-up without Jones in the way. With that said, Bill Belichick does have a history of game planning to eliminate one specific receiver on the other team, and he might try to do the same against Hill. If they do so they risk cutting loose Jaylen Waddle ($10200 DK, $13500 FD) for the big play, which he might be somewhat due for after drawing only five targets in Week 1. Braxton Berrios ($2000 DK, $7500 FD) and River Cracraft ($800 DK, $8000 FD) were surprisingly busy in Week 1 as slot types, respectively playing 35 and 26 snaps. With Miami's extremely light running back and tight end personnel they might need to continue calling three- and four-wide at a high rate. Erik Ezukanma ($200 DK, $6000 FD) also played 18 snaps in Week 1, though apparently as an end-around specialist (two carries versus eight routes). Durham Smythe ($3800 DK, $7000 FD) looks like a good value after playing 65 snaps in Week 1, compared to just two for Tyler Kroft. Smythe drew seven targets on the workload.

Kendrick Bourne ($7200 DK, $11000 FD) appears to be the WR1 for the Patriots, at least relative to JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6200 DK, $9000 FD). Bourne played 71 snaps to Smith-Schuster's 41 against the Eagles, drawing 11 targets versus seven for Smith-Schuster. DeVante Parker ($5000 DK, $8000 FD) is a bit of a wildcard on the Patriots depth chart – he could outrank Bourne as the WR1 when healthy (or not), but even then it's impossible to tell where Parker's knee health is at after missing Week 1. If Parker can't play again it leaves more snaps for Kayshon Boutte ($600 DK, $5000 FD). Demario Douglas ($1800 DK, $7000 FD) should have a steady slot receiver role regardless of Parker's health, because Parker and Boutte are more outside-oriented receivers than Douglas. If not the ragtag Patriots wideouts, then Hunter Henry ($5600 DK, $10000 FD) might need to function as the Patriots' top pass catcher. Even so, Mike Gesicki ($2400 DK, $7000 FD) should see 30 or more snaps at tight end as well, with more of a pass-catching specialist role compared to the versatile functions of Henry.

KICKERS

Jason Sanders ($4200 DK, $9000 FD) hasn't demonstrated it as often the last two years but he has range from beyond 50 yards, giving him that coveted showdown upside as a kicker. He posted 14 fantasy points in Week 1, and he went over double-digit fantasy points in seven of 18 games (includling playoffs) last year. The Dolphins might need to lean on Sanders again particularly if the Patriots make this a close game with good red-zone defense.

Chad Ryland ($4000 DK, $8500 FD) is much less proven than Sanders, though the Patriots presumably have high expectations after spending a fourth-round pick on Ryland. Ryland is still awaiting his first NFL field goal attempt after attempting none against the Eagles, otherwise making both of his two PATs. 

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Patriots ($3600 DK, $8500 FD) defense might be the underdog here, but there's still a case to make that they're a good showdown consideration. The New England defensive personnel is loaded with depth, and Belichick still calls a good game every now and then. An offense can play well against the Patriots and still have a rough go of it, especially at Foxborough. With that said, an absence for Jonathan Jones would be a huge loss especially as it relates to defending Tyreek Hill, the most important player on the Miami roster.

The Dolphins ($4400 DK, $9500 FD) have the conventional advantage as the favorite, even on the road, and it especially helps them that the New England offensive line is almost completely destroyed. This might be the most vulnerable the Patriots offense has been in years, and homefield advantage might not save them in light of that.